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Entries in pwrd (1)


Dealing with the inevitables...

So everybody knew it's just going to be a matter of time, sooner or later...this market is going to rebound from that horrid 500 pt drop last week.   How could it not, right?   Of course, we just don't know when it'll happen and how it's going to happen.    Well, the day did not start with any conviction that we are going to have that rebound day.   You can just feel the jitters with fvery tick of the indexes, up and down.   Actually, there's always that fear looming over some people's head that "what if that 500 pt drop turns into a 1000 pt drop?"   Of course, it's just highly unlikely that market drops 1000 points without any kind of rebound.    We may very well drop a total of 1000 points over the next few months or years, but it probably won't take just 3 days to do that.   A little logic,  street sense, you may call it always plays a role in our thinking day to day.

There was a battle going on earlier in the day between those that looking to sell into any strength (the 1000 pt fearer) and dip buyers.    Finally, when it's apparent that market isn't going to drop today, the reverse happens and people just rushed in to buy up some of their favourite targets.  Hence, we had the inevitable rebound.    At this point, it's going to be hard to convince people that this is nothing but a short lived rebound attempt and the overall technical picture is pretty gloomy.   Well, at least this is probably the majority of the "smart" traders think anyway.    To us, we'll try not to out think the thinkers and outplay the markets.    The strategy is to go with the flow with some contained exposure.    We would bear in mind the potential risk of selling off again but still trade those with the best momentum and setup.    The point here, is that we have to stick with our game and plan.   If we took some loss from last week,  we'd grind it back, slowly but surely.   Having confidence in our ability to trade well in an up moving market is the key to long term success in this business. Some..most..can't do stay put!....Right now, we just have to be super disciplined and be ready to go cash on a moment's notice.    Other than that, it's really business usual and last week's drop does not change our personality or strategy or discipline level whatsoever.    The only thing that may have changed since last week is perhaps our portfolio value ...   Frankly, that is the easier part to deal with given the number of similar scenarios we've gone through before.

Now a couple of earning plays and story stocks that should be kept a close eye on......

ARTC. this is a play that weathered a 300 point Dow drop by announcing its earning last Friday.    When market turned positive today, it's almost inconceivable that this one would do anything other than being up.   After another above average volume day, this one tacked on two points and a new closing high.    Again, we like this one's business and we don't think any "sub prime or prime concern" would have any adverse effect on this one.  It is at the most recent price targets set by a few recently.

AXYS, this one actually had a buy reiteration today, so some of the move maybe attributed to that.   In either case, any stock that gets a new closing high in this gloomy environment deserves a trade from you..

LDSH, this one actually had a downgrade the day after it ran up off earning.   We are just wondering if it wasn't for the downgrade, would this one already be well over $50s?   Of course, it's useless thinking about questions like that.   We just simply have to deal with what's already taken place.   It's going to get a good test to see if it can zoom past $50 and beyond.    We think a lot depends on the overall health of the market.   However, if this market rebound does carry some leg, there's no doubt that this one can be one of the leaders leading the gainer list.

FSLR,  if you happen to catch some intraday swing, it's pretty sweet.   Earning is tomorrow and this one is something we'd definitely keep an eye on as this can set the tone for the rest of the solar sector for next little while.  We said watch for pre-earnings moves in our listed stocks reporting, this one  definitely got one today.

GHM, for a small company with a small float, its earning looks pretty good.   Valuation is still very reasonable.    We would be trading some with the flow

PWRD, this is a new play we've added to our watch list last since Friday.    This can trade wildly but it can be rewarding if you are on the right side of the trade.    There's some good amount interest in this play, so we'd trade it until the characteristic changes. Not for all!. 

There are many bouncing as expected...CCF.....some of these are so thin it is easy to walk up as it was to walk down last week.