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Entries in FWLT (14)

Wednesday
May092007

Shorts Killer...

This market has been all over the Shorts lately.   Unless, of course, that you were short DNDN.    Ok, this is probably the last time we'd ever mention DNDN.   The long and short of it is,  the play is over and it's time to move on, regardless whether you are sitting on a loss or a overall profit from your previous trade leads here.   It's the last trade that only matters, no averaging stuff to give yourself an excuse to hold on.  We played it twice at DJIM, we doubt there will be a 3rd soon.  . On to what matters, we basically had a great day.   Fed meeting may provided a spin for this market in terms of volatility, but overall, most of the DJIM stocks that have showed strength last couple of days did extremely well today.     This time around, and just like all the other time around, it's all about earnings here.    To us, earning is the primary if not the only driving force of our strategy.    Figuring out entry/exit  points is one thing, but the ability to pick out outstanding earnings play with great momentum potential is the root of our approach.    Hopefully, by the end of this earnings quarter, many of you would have a pretty good idea what we do here on a daily basis.     Getting involved with the right group of traders that know what they are doing is one thing, trading to get more experienced is even more important.    

Still...besides all the emails we get during the day, including, ' great call' for an NGA, LXU, FWLT recently which we thank you for.  But,  there are still 1/10 that we can't understand.   If you follow into our stocks, why do you not exit and lock in nice gains when there to be had?.   Greed?.  Just today before the open,  we received one on IDSA and what we think now "as I have not sold all?".   Didn't we set out everything late last week and the potential for disappointment and other alerts, last being when the stock was $15.5 on Friday?.   The other ironically from last night on DNDN..." might be $50 after approval..what you think"?..  OMG,  its a speculative ticket  'short ride' every time we've mentioned it.   We gave our exits dang it.  OMG..to learn this member was holding 1k of DNDN later at 17+.  We had a recent hold into GROW's earning as well from a long time member. ARGHHH!!.

Guys..sorry but maybe to see your mistakes in bright lights here will stop the insanity!!. We honestly care, especially after getting to know some of you over time.

It's tough to pick out the  play to write about first since there are too many good ones...   ok lets start with..

FWLT, earning sells the story and momentum pays the traders.     By the time this thing moves over 7 or 8 points, there's not even any point going over the earning report anymore.   Why you ask?   Many traders may put the emphasis on the actually earing number, the quality of earning etc., what they often forget is that it's the collective action of those involved in TRADING this thing that makes the difference.    For us, we had a feeling that this one has good number, but we needed confirmation from the "big boys" to confirm our feeling.    When they go chase, we tag along!  This was the premise behind the 2nd note on FWLT today.  It went off like magic, you can see it gaining steam on every small pullback around $80-$81.   We were so ready, hopefully we prepared you and you enjoyed the rocket launch from 80 to 88.  It may sound surprisingly simple but it does take a lot of trading to get used to the idea of "your buy may very well give this stock a new high".  

CROX, this is just inevitable.   Provided that the market is rocking all around, we still think this one is going much higher.   Read up on our notes here, hell use the new search available to you to find it;).   In a way, this one reminds us of HANS in its prime days in some ways.    We added some late around our 'juice ' alert and it finished beautifully with a nch in place.

NGA, it feels like this IBD100 listing is looking more and more like a done deal, based on its trading.   With two days left till the end of the trading week, we think the downside is limited right here.    Yes, a pullback is definitely possible tomorrow or even on Friday.   In our opinion, any pullback should be bought.

LXU, again, we'd like to use our conservative approach and would like to see a pullback or consolidation around here after the stock climbed from out 18.70ish alert to nearly $21 today.   To us, it never hurts to underestimate the potential of a run-up rather than overestimate it.   What this does is that you are always setting yourself for good surprises.  If this stock continues its leg up with strong volume, so be it and we'd just play along.     However, we aren't buying it like the way we did when it was in the $18s, for now.

TRCR,  don't let the big point gainers make you forget about the little guys.   Your eyes may be glued to the FWLT of the trading world but the little ones can also make up for very nice gains if you time it right.    We noticed the set-up yesterday and today's just the confirmation breakout.   We added some and looking for more.

TRT, what may caused the strong action today may be the fact that people are looking for a change in IBD rating after its earning report.   Yes, this IBD thing never gets old. lol     We got a starter and will look closely for any further development.  The report itself is nothing to write home about..not 30% worth of stamps. The first trades premkt were $19.50 up 25%, a little to expensive for our tastes and not something we'd chase till we see what regular trading hours bring.  Finished up just over 30%.   In the end FLWT which was up 7% premkt provided  better upside as we thought it might in our pre-market note.  Maybe not so much better % wise, but definitely safer and much more liquid to go big $ with momentum.   You could not afford to chance and therefore do the sizes in TRT that you could have done with FWLT today.  As traders this is primary consideration when wanting to go in 'super size me' lots.

There are quite a few recent stocks that made new highs today, we are trading. These recent mentions from Journal or via trading members in our forum include SPAN TNH HAYN SCHN RS FTK EDU   We're still waiting on NTLS.

An incredible day from our DJIM stocks on a day the DOW +54 and the NASD +4.59.  Who outperformed who?

Sunday
May132007

DJIM #20 2007

Rundown of DJIM's closely followed heading into Mondays trade...

TNH, definitely one the big winners on the week with a 24% pop.  We profiled Terra Nitrogen, fertilizer maker, back on April 8th (DJIM #15/#16), we said if you catch it on the right side, it could be quiet the ride. The right side has been now with Nitrogen in great demand and because of NG pricing.   The stock closed at $95, up over $30 since April notes.    Remember, she can be the volatile one and the higher she goes, the higher the chances of seeing greater volatility.

NGA,  though this one did not finish over $15 as per IBD requirement,  it might as well have finished above it to ease the suspense.     So is this more than and IBD play or not?   At this point, who really cares?    As long as the volume + price action do not die down, we are going along with it.   What we feel is that there are momentum hedge funds behind the work of this one which explains the consistent volume.   We like this one because of its relative liquidity compared to some of the other low priced IBD plays.    Why does it matter?   For those of us who trade more than a couple of thousand shares at a time, this is the kind of action that can get you in and out with relative ease.   What we are watching out for is the blow off top volume, as a warning sign.   So far, so good!. Our note pre market indicated some selling might come off the insider selling news.  This happened and provided a nice dip into the $12's early on.    Hopefully, some were able to get more there or low's $13.   The fact this occurred probably held NGA off $15 for now..   Why?.    If you bought high $12's, very low $13's Friday, would you not have sold at the high $14's if you loaded up in the morning???.  We did some.   Once this moved beyond $13.50ish, you knew new money would be coming in so not to miss the run to $15 and above.   No better place to sell for someone making a morning buy in the 12's- low 13's, don't you think?.     We're patient.    IDSA now NGA.  In so many ways this played out just like IDSA last week.    Hopefully, you were prepared to trade it smartly after last week.

IDSA   so the stock made it to IBD#43, a week later than it was "supposed" to.  Lol   Well, things will definitely get more interesting from here.   We think the exposure of IBD does bring more positive things to a stock than not.   It actually brings this one to many more traders' attention.  The OS/float definitely stands amongst the IBD 100 names.    As long as this one is getting more exposed, it's unlikely that the play goes away anytime soon.   We are using our usual approach with this one from now on and look for new highs as an excuse to add and 9 ema as key support.  Simply, the traders gut told us this was the one under $15 that was going to get riled up friday in our morning note.   We added in forum the night before to a IDSA question..Needs volume!.  We pointed out volume was at the previous days high quiet early, Friday. This was indication to us more was to come and a good chance this was going to take IDSA beyond $15+.

FWLT, wow is the word to describe the action in this one.  In our opinion, this is the kind of stock that's much much easier to play compare to NGA, IDSA and definitely the SIF's of the world.   Why?   This one is a liquid monster, an institution's heavy play.   Even as retail trader, we have no problem of going big in size and playing with the big boys.  You can't do this on a SIF type.   Of course, if you have a smaller sized account, this one still provide lots of fireworks even for small lots.  For every 100 share lot at $78, this made you $1800 in a few days.  Again, we say, don't back away from the expensive plays such as this and the MA's so easily.... As we tried to point out, we felt FWLT had more short term upside potential from the pre-mkt prices of FWLT ($78) compared to TRT's (19.50).   Based on closes Friday, FWLT is up 22% and TRT is 12% from that  possible morning buy-in and has been way more liquid to trade.

LXU, this recent DJIM pick up is gaining traction and starting the ride the coattails as many are starting to see it as a Ag play.  Their chemical biz seems to be thriving as seen by EPS results and it's definitely one of our favorites.   The ticket here to consider!. POTash is around $200, TNH, is near $100 and if I might have missed the ride, maybe my only only logical cheap play here might be LXU??.   Hmmm.    It is in top 5 performers in the Agriculture section of IBD movers.   Besides, there is a new #1 IBD Industry Group and it is Agriculture and Fertilizer...really, we're not fertilizing you!

SPAR, this pick up pre market the other day at $30 was a quick bump to high of $32.70.  We sold some Friday into the Cramer push and later picked some up cheaper again.  Selling into strength generated by outside influences, such as Cramer is a no brainer.  This one falls into another sector that is thriving.   We were watching this angle since AH takeover by bringing FRPT into the DJIM fray Monday. SPAR is intertwined here as they are the chassis maker dealing with FRPT.

CPY, we put this CPY back out at $80 Friday on alerts as a buy in again.  It manged to climb another $3 bucks higher at one point.  Just keeps on ticking and it is more than the retail investor buying 100 lots here that is still driving this higher at these levels.

TRT,  we are holding some TRT but on a short leash to see if a IBD crush comes.  The play here started back in 2006 based on EPS and their China connection starting what we thought would fuel this compnay.  We played it now for another 2 Q's  and this is the first Q that we saw revenue slow down.  It was actually a tad lower sequentailly and Product reveune dropped some 20% sequentially.    So has the Asian buzz hit a wall as these numbers might indicate?.    At this point after 3 excellent Q's,  you should not be looking at YOY Q numbers here,  but sequential growth.   If this was a big Semi name that showed no sequential revenue growth,  besides the under 300k in net income, it would likely been a ho-hum report as analysts would not be looking at YOY if they had been placing estimates on the stock for this Q.    They would have looking at the 3 previous Q's since we've been following it and their expectations would be based on that!.   Simply , sequentail reveune growth has been curbed some it seems for now.   $6.4>  9.5>  9.9> 14.06 and now 13.6mln in revenue for the last 5 Q's.    An advantage of no analysts covering a DJIM stock is seen here.  The problem is the company gives no guidance, so you don't know if the revenue has hit a peak and if EPS next Q might hit a snag as well.   Anyways, we're in for some, this just ain't one of our top holds at this time.  We'll see how it starts to play out early in the week.

SPAN, a May pick up( profiled in Alert sec), is the little engine that could, a slight pullback mid week and then a NCH to close out the week.

SIF, a hot market definitely brings out hot money in the micro caps. At this point anything new is beng chased up if the headline numbers stick and we joined in with some of you for a quick trade.   Definitely, some of you guys got more out of it than us!.   Great!.   With so many plays on our plate Friday, we left this while the exuberance was high and while it was still possible trade the bigger lot sizes to make it worthwhile.  We don't know if that will be the case by mid-week, if we wanted to sell a big lot hold at a decent price.  Time will tell.   You see, some plays are taking EPS to a different level in this market, as in potential one Q wonders being run as if they will be what TRT, BTJ, DXPE, NGA in the beginning of their cycles.  Those companies were turning around and you could see by their growth figures.  Not only YOY growth, but sequential revenue/EPS growth as well.   This is how companies become IBD inclusions.  We see pretty stagnant revenue growth Q over Q's at SIF with one good EPS Q under it's belt now.   There is no saying this company can pull off another going forward, despite being in a good sec.   We don't see it as 2 Q's with upside EPS, last Q was almost all government grants income that made up the EPS #.  We're not knocking the company, we're just saying it's not for everybody to trade here, especially if thinking one EPS Q will make it the next NGA, BTJ, DXPE etc.  This simply means for those considering playing SIF starting Monday,  be careful if thinking this almost 100 year old co' will become a solid player into the next few Q's.   DJIM members need to differentiate the type of plays conducive to their style and abilities.  This is all we are pointing out here.   For those giving it a run....keep pushing and we might be back to help out.   IBD numbers are on equal terms to TRT's and made it on Aerospace IBD hot list this weekend.  Institution holdings are about 25% in this name, if their Blackberry's were not working overtime selling Friday, this upcoming week might get some of it.  If the shares get in retail hands, who knows what can happen in a happy market.  Will leave it to the speculators for now and concentrate on companies producing revenue, EPS growth Q after Q.

CROX FSLR TRCR ADPI HAYN NTLS MA SYNL, all behaving fine after being followed closely here following their EPS this Q.

HDNG TWIN FTK  added to IBD or moving up as in HDNG case after EPS #'s last week.

This market is moving clearly off the earnings of S&P co's, small caps etc. and we at DJIM definitely are simply in the right niche at the right time!

Wednesday
May162007

What's to come...

We aren't exactly sure what may be in store for us from this market the next few weeks.   What we do feel comfortable of doing right now is trading on reduced size with selective picks and if and when we say `morning trade opp`...`flip` this means , we are looking to trade those first,  not get in bed with at this point.  We state our intentions.  Those not in the trading hood yet....time to get with the lingo.  This all should be obvious from the last few Journals.  We are happy with a one night stand at this point because of what we have said on the market.  A quickie ain`t bad either.  If something was lost in the language the last few days, maybe this just cleared it up.

We don`t like it the past few days, but we keep on looking for a point or two, here and there and everywhere..  If you can`t flip or be there for a morning opportunity,  just leave it alone and wait for something more than a trading opportunity.  We had members throwing up today and ones checking for news if a bomb had dropped on a Jack in the Box because the stock we gave at 78 premkt was at 77 in a falling market.  If trading causes such reactions in some, seriously consider stacking the Zantac or do something completely different.

To us if finally just feels that this market needs to crack in order to get the monkey off lots of people's back.   Did you notice the SOX was red end of day, while the NASDAQ finished up 22 and every other sector was green!.  You cant go forward if this one doesn`t show leadership of some sorts.  It all looks a little screwy now.   As we said before, we are thinking it is the overseas markets that will spook our market here overnight.   If we can`t do it ourselves, someone will do it for us from the other side.   Just a hunch.   Seasonality favours a pullback here and the run-up from this market also suggests some consolidation here too.    Despite our feeling, we aren't going to walk away from this market completely but instead, we are just going to be trading lightly with a cautionary hat on.    There definitely seems to be lack of a theme now that the earning season comes to an end.   From our experience, there's almost always some jittery at the end of the earning season.    Ok onto the plays that are keeping us interested this week...

GTI, this one just amazes us!  Sure, the performance of the run-up isn't killer like but the steadiness of it makes it a quality hold.    We added a bit of this one today near the end.   Again, this one is also an IBD play but we think there's just much more to it than the IBD crowd.

TBSI,  a new EPS play that came around yesterday that also happened to be yet another.... you guessed it, IBD play.    The chart looks very  powerful in this one and we can feel the momentum crowd having their hands full with this one.   Take it or leave it, this one is in play and we are getting involved as well.

NGA, perhaps our feeling has been exaggerated by the split announcement and maybe all is still well with this play.    No matter, we can not let our own emotional feeling from making good trading decisions based on the actual action of the stock.    This one did come back very nicely and in fact notched a new closing high.    We bought some back today and feel the IBD theme is still intact with this one.   We'll see how this one develops next couple of days.  Again, we`re back but we`re not back in sizes that we carried since the $10`s..11`s..12`s

FWLT, we are watching very closely on this one for any sign of pickup in volume/strength.   Perhaps this is the one with the highest probability of making it to the triple digit club on our watchlist.

Bottom line, we are being very selective in this market right now and try not to get carried away with sizable positions.

Sunday
May202007

DJIM #21  2007

Sitting Bull wasn't basking in his laurels, recent victories come Friday. Instead, he and has band of M&A and buy back share brothers decided to charge signaling yet more accumulation. Once again the army of bears didn't have the muster to do anything to curtail this frenzy buying.  So we march forward and with every stoppage in play, we continue to expect the ways of the Bull to keep us going with MSFT-AQNT type hoopla creeping into the market. So that's the big world, what's happened in our little world, niche. Well, what can be better than having 3 closely followed DJIM make it to IBD this weekend. Not to shabby to have three (NGA-TBSI-GTI), be the top three new inclusions at # 5,9,26.  Hey even Curlin our sentimental Derby pick, stuck it's nose out with a flurry in the Preakness this weekend.  So..all good seemingly as we head into the week after what appeared as distribution earlier in the week. Still the NASD and small cap indices finished lower on the week and this is the ho-hum in the market that continues to concern us.  Maybe this time these market players play catch up this upcoming week. A hunch is they do.  Also, keep the big oils up as we head into Memorial day. Stocks like OXY, SLB, UPL should do better than the small cap names in this sector because bigger caps have been the leaders. If there is big money wanting to play this sector, it should go to stocks like these. On the charts, these look great and when called for, we like to trade these names.

KHDH, was a new buy in for us. The co's earnings for the most recent Q came out early last week and are up in the Alert section. We've had our eye on it for awhile and this earning as seen by its 2 days with 100k+ volume it got noticed.  We 'll look to add on dips or further strength. This trades in a fashion similiar to a CPY type and so it is possible to do both.  IBD composite rating is at 97.  This might suit the investor who has picked up our May buy in plays like RCCC, NTLS, CUB, SPAN, AFAM.  A few companies that don't get the recognition here on a daily basis because they are just nice and steady plays that you can't say much about on a daily basis.  Speaking of...lets give some of our secondary plays spotlight for a change. They are not secondary for those that can't watch like a hawk the faster plays day in day out from DJIM. These holders are doing just as fine this month without the diet of Pepto.

RCCC, touched on 29.70 from the May 4th buy in at 26.50ish levels(12%). Trades nicely a $1 above the 9ema for the last few weeks. Not much you can say about it steadiness, except watch the 9ema as a guide.

NTLS, also an early may pick up in the higher 22's as another wireless play a la RCCC.  Just like RCCC this EPS play closed with a NCH at 24.4 and is gliding on air just above the 9ema. A possible 8% is nothing to sneeze at in a couple of weeks.

CUB, a buy-in low 22's off earning popped to a $24.30 close Friday. Just another 10% play so far. As much as we like to play the NGA's,IDSA's, there is nothing like patting an account with consistent steady 10% plays.

AFAM has bounced from 20's to 24 since our premkt earnings note May 8th. 7 bucks off highs is only 3 now.

FWLT CROX MA LXU GTI TBSI SPAN SPAR IDSA MR MTOX, other prominent May DJIM plays that we are trading at different times depending on set ups and market conditions.  As far as TRT, FWLT has definitely been the play as its stands 20% above that premkt intro.  Meanwhile, TRT nests back to 9-14ema and at 19 is below 19.50 premkt initial price off EPS. Quite a few of you did not like our stance on TRT after its earning. After our full write up last week it declined 15%,-5 straight down days, we hope you had a change of heart if we saved you a buck or two. Is it going to bounce or is going to fill some of the gap?

NGA, okay... so this followed the script since we first alerted/ bought into at $10, April 30th. The stock traded to high 15's all last week and the suspense was over for us at that point.  The only suspense came back in the last 15 minutes or so Friday, actually it wasn't suspense but a 'you better get there' plea. The inevitable finally happened and now we see if this was only a IBD inclusion play or not?  In other words, will this have the kick to get to the 20's split time. We'll see if the 100k+ comical push in the last 3 minutes will be a forward to a dump-eroo in the morning now that it made it on. Of course, we hope it finishes with a new closing high and continues to be in play.  Consider the flight of IDSA, SPEC recent additions to IBD100.  The following highs on Monday have not been reached again.  We were not warning on Friday, we are only throwing caution to the wind after a possible 50%+ run here.  We see no reason to blow 'any' of the profits generated in the month off NGA and have walked away with plenty in the high 15's already.  It makes little difference to us that we are at those same prices Friday AH's.  We'd be no better off yet if we hadn't sold off most earlier.  Still we have some and most likely will sell into any morning strength and then re-position if further strength is shown during the day or days ahead.

 

Wednesday
May302007

Looking for an edge...

Traditionally, market will begin to slow down right about here.    So what are we going to be looking for the next few months?    Well, we know that some participants will take it the easy and take on a vacation, literally.    For others, they'd still grind it out day in and day out, but at a much slower pace.     What we at DJIM are going to look for are plays that aren't beta, but rather look for those plays that move independently from the market.    Of course, that is assuming that the market does not make a dramatic move in either direction.     So,  there's the big rally strategy, there's the big selloff strategy, and then there's this slow action, lazy summer kind of strategy.

How do we approach this market then?    Assuming that some of us have a sizable portfolio, we are going to commit 1/5th of the capital into work, as opposed to the usual amount we'd commit during a busy earning season.    This is just a form of discipline we practice during the slower market.   We found it that when dealing with a slower market, it's much easier to manage fewer positions and smaller sizes.   So at the end, we try to make our trading life easier.    However, managing fewer positions does not mean that we track fewer positions.  On the contrary, we may be forced to track more positions just because we have to expand our watchlist to include not only the smaller caps, but mid caps and some bigger caps as well.

The market may head into a uncertain direction, but our methodology and discipline do not change.   The intensity of trading may not be as high as a couple of months back but our focus is still right at the top.

Here are some stocks of interest today...

TRR, we bit a little bit of this one today.    We liked its action lately and felt it's in play and can last a little longer. The company reported recently and has climbed about 40%. Co reports Q1 (Sep) EPS of $0.01 vs ($0.34) in yr ago period; reports gross revs of $102.9 mln vs $110.6 mln in yr ago period. Co reports Q2 (Dec) EPS of $0.05, ex-items, vs ($0.37) in yr ago period; reports gross revs of $114.5 mln vs $96.2 mln in yr ago period. Co sees Q3 gross revs of $115 mln.  This is a turnaround story as the co`restructures that is seemingly liked.  NCH

TATTF, finally, this is no stranger to DJIM Forum, IBD talk and we have played this one numerous times before.  It reported its best EPS-Revenue Q yet and after taking a beating from $28 Feb- March, this looks like it could make up some of the lost ground off this report.

PCS, is one of the best IPO`s of 2007.   It traded 20mln shares on its opening day and has not stopped moving up since. The wireless carrier is showing tremendous growth as it offers a flat monthly fee for unlimited airtime and other combos including internet access.  Today's action was selling on the news.  The news being the lead brokerages quiet period ended (actually last week) and four came out with price targets between $41 and $46, including 2 buy ratings.  You could see one determined seller in the morning that wouldn't go away, you dont need level 2 to see him. What happens many times is a few load up into the end of the quiet period to unload into the brokerages coverage. This was clearly what was going on today and you should always back off a little if you see a dude throwing up 3-5k consistently to sell.  We think this will hold the 9ema and turn back up once the seller is driven away.  We will look to add on such action as this stock is in the right space with great growth.

MFLO,  this is a stock we were buying around $21 a few days ago and have been in with smaller positions for a couple of days now.    We added some today given its relative strength compare to the rest of the market.   It notched a new high and we like the way it held up most of its gain through the end.  Like we said the other night, we think something is up here that we little people don`t  know about.

TBSI, last couple of days proved to be a good test on this one as it bounced off its 9 ema.    Today's strength may suggests that the run-up is not over but we aren't certain at this point what kind of follow through it'll get.   The good thing about this one here, is that it's only a buck off its high.

MA/FWLT, these two, despite their strength among the bigger names we follow, follow the index much more closely than many of the smaller caps.  You can almost see the intraday correlation between them and the index.   To us, we can still scalp some nice points off them given the volatile nature of this market.

Wednesday
May302007

Be prepared...

Summer trading may be dull but days like today cannot be ignored by market participants.    Perhaps, since the majority of the traders expected a non moving and slightly lower market trend with slow volume the next little while, we may just get the opposite of that.     Of course, one strong day in the summer does not mean that we'd be starting a summer rally monkey chant.     What we feel, at this point is that we cannot rule out the possibility.     We had two market moving catalysts today, the sell off in China and Fed. minutes.   Both news bits could have potentially sparked a sell off over here but the market managed to shrug off both bits and shot up as a result.    To really put this into perspective, it means that we as traders will have to keep up with our A game and not to let up on potential days like today.    One thing that's obvious here, is that when the market performs strong, the beta stocks lead the charge.    Some of the small caps, momentum or not, may eventually play the catch up game.    The key here, is to recognize which stocks are in play and which one are not.   It's absolutely critical that we do not take our own personal opinion in speculating which stocks may be in play. You have a watchlist of recent winning plays that you can and should easily turn to again when called for, like today   Let the volume show us, and let the market decide which flavour it wants to put in play.    Follow the trend closely and act decisively, we may just have a good summer ahead of us.

MA FWLT CROX,  oh yes, the big guns of DJIM earning plays this Q were just glamorizing the indices move today.   Of course, it'd be strange and potentially worrisome if these one do not participate in the rally today.    The game with these is simple, when market turns green and stays in course, it's almost a given to scalp some nice points off these.    But of course, if you were in these since the day we alerted (EPS), then you'd be in good shape whether you scalp or not by now. The big and easy points have been made here as it stands now, this does not mean you can`t make more points on these in a good market.

PCS,  if you took anything away from the Journal last night, well then you probably were on your way early today to a nice close and a 6% day. A NCH is not far away here.  TTC, another recent EPS buy in closed with a NCH.

RCCC CUB TRCR, call these DJIM crawlers or whatever you wish, they all managed a new high today !

ATV, this one had a very nice pop going into the earning tomorrow and it's capped by a late day sell off.   Understandably, nobody here wants to hold through the earning.   At least, those who have rode it for a few points and those who have a rigid discipline like us would not hold through the earning.   If it so happens the stock gaps up off really strong EPS tomorrow, we'd be right there to bid it higher.  

Well that's it!...nothing else is worth mentioning........NOT!. There was little Novcea..

NOVC, wow eh!....was that not the most exciting 30-40 minutes!!.  This turned into momo momo.  The most important ingredient in trading is recognizing the potential of a stock, so you can fly with it if-when it takes off.   You have 5 tool baseball players, B.Bonds was one but became just a tool...well this was 5 tool stock!..cheapness, float, news, big pharma, big $$ involved.  We've had some amazing moves here, catching a few at the bottom before a big fast move.  These include the FWLT bust out, the CMI squeeze, the MFW ride last Q and now NOVC below $11 before the huge pop to $17+.  These one day moves are powerful and we don`t give a damn if they last 30min or a day.   The result is the same.  You can do in 1 day, what takes some weeks,  months to do in the way of a return.   Our summer was made today in less than 30minutes, but being the idiot traders we are!..we were looking for more to trade within minutes.  From the emails we received today, quite a few did very well too and might be going on a summer vacation..lol.   The rush of a big win just keeps us going for more day after day, so we`ll stick around and look for more.   Usually, we would just leave a play like this after giving it one big whirl.  Instead, we were buying some back as volume picked up late in the day.  CNBC always helps.   Like the ACOR, VNDA, DNDN`s plays,  we put NOVC into the speculative DJIM room and will trade it day to day, hour to hour now.  To us the easy money has been made and that is what we first look for in spec stocks.

Sunday
Jun032007

DJIM #23  2007

Last weekend the hope was a few billion dollar M&A deals to get the market stimulated again. A few billion turned into 60 billion worth of deals or more brought back from the Hampton's. Our one concern to stymie this market was if the Shang' would sooner than later unravel our market again.  A few did their best trying to make the stamp tax a double shot of the Shanghai surprise we saw early in the year. We didn't even touch on this in Wednesday's Journal because we saw it as a non event. As far as we're concerned, the Chinese government is gonna do things their way and it will take a few more maneuvers of this type to cause the bubble to burst and spread to here.  Likely they'll be careful now after the early year swoon.  Soon after the FOMC minutes came and we were off to the races.  Well...races, but not what we would call a sprint!.   Still...what last week did was provide some DJIM stocks an opportunity to come of their shell and play....So on to some names heading to the trading week...

TBSI, we are all familiar with this shipper now ( #8 IBD ), we were adding late in the day and think this is ready to resume upwards. While ESEA looks quite extended, TBSI keeps putting in tails off the 9ema (showing support).

ESEA, this shipper intro'd Thursday night turned into a 16% move come Friday. Yes, a full 16% as the open price (13.40) and later a dip gave a chance to catch most of this move. Of course, we took some profits but we were back for more during the day. The PE seemed to be below the norm for these shippers and probably helped out its cause.

DRYS, is another Greek shipper we took a position in.  If this sector continues to climb, we like where this one sits on the chart to play along. This is a good and fast mover when caught at the right time.  We took a smaller position as we wait to see if this has the ouzo to bust out.

MR CYNO, a couple of names here for months made it to IBD's front page this weekend as both busted out to new highs. CYNO was basing between 30-32 for about a month, while MR is getting quite jumpy, you really have no idea day to day what it is going to do.  Sometimes with quality names you just have stick it out.  The front page coverage might get them some more air this week. We'll see...

PCS, TTC, MFLO recent pick ups closed at NCH's or close.  A few others that have been around longer at DJIM.. GTI NTLS RCCC TRCR also remain strong.

FWLT CROX MA continue to get DJIM trading dollars, mostly on positive index days.  Not much can be said that hasn't been said about these stocks since their earnings.

NOVC, as we said, the easy money has been made and we are only looking to trade it when there is some signs of life. The biggest mistake you can make is trying to get a piece of NOVC, if you missed the first move.  Too may are looking for a repeat move.  It's not going to happen to that magnitude without more news, so there is no need to feel left out.  Also, do understand it is inevitable with biotechs that firms come out and raise targets to very high levels. They have no choice as now there is finally news.  These targets, sometimes 50-100% higher are looking a year and more down the road and are calculating a perfect storm of everything going right to that time.  The chances are a biotech will leave your mind in a week or two as another takes it's place.  It does with us.    Unless you are a long term speculative investor, you are unlikely to see those price targets hit for NOVC, CYBP etc.this summer.

PLPC, bought a few shares to tuck away, maybe this has a little HTC, EML in it. These types are only if you have space and time to spare in your book for some not so liquid stocks.

Sunday
Jun172007

DJIM #25  2007

This is definitely a helluva of a start to the summer. The recent scare of back to back to back days of declines leading to last weeks broad rally is volatility at it's best and every traders dream.  It was just on the 14th (3rd day of declines), we said lets all take a chill pill and not act hastily with our books and wait to see who/what puts the bears into the woodshed.  Seemingly, everyday since there has been something to reignite the Bull and his herd.  Friday was the crowning as tepid inflation numbers brought back hopes of better growth to go with it.  If you had the QQQQ on level2 as the CPI came out, you'd think you won the lottery before the open.  An important ingredient to last weeks rally was being prepared.  The only way to do that is having stocks in tow or watch listed to recycle into that were strong to begin with. We think we were definitely ready here at DJIM by having 'strong stocks' as the market finished its tumble.  In DJIM #24, "Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...".

Included in this list were :         KMGB    LXU    TNH     CUB    RCCC   LPHI     GHM    MA     FWLT 

1 week % performances          21.46    8.16   19.15   4.37  19.73    25.72  10.28   9.80   5.49

Simply all you needed was a healthy dose of DJIM stocks to recycle if need be.  It is so much easier when you have the right watch list without having to seek out what is hot in a fast and furious market. This allows you time to concentrate on trading and getting in early if you were not there already.  Saves time and money.

Beyond the above DJIM stocks that we will continue to stalk, we also had a few names..old and new come to forefront last week...

One of our all time DJIM favorites, MFW was picked up on the hunch they will do something with their cash, well more of a hunch the hedgies will feel that way.

KHDH was one we didn't get much out of recently but oh boy did it show its magic for the last 3 days since alerted $58.5`s. A fast 5 points-8% to the high of Friday.

AIRT, was introduced Thursday $9.60`s area and almost hit $11 at the open the next day before digesting its previous days gap and big percentage day.

SDTH, we just couldn't buy and type fast enough it seems. We started buying the low 5`s and by the time we got the alert out it was 5.30 and then exploded to 6.25 in the next 15 minutes. We said what we saw as angle to this play and soon enough it seems Briefing saw it the same way. Fertilizer and China with earnings.   See their write up posted in Forum by a member. 

AHD MFLO VSNT pretty well round out the play list.

..most importantly today...A Happy Father's Day to our friends here!

 

 

Monday
Jun182007

..What was that?

Well...that was what is a typical summer snooze off!. The indices churned and churned with no catalysts ( eg. little M&A activity or Eco numbers) to serve up any conviction on either side.  Maybe we shouldn't complain after the excitement lately, but if you're doing this full time, days like this make you cringe at the thought of more listless days.    Luckily, there were a few DJIM gorillas to get some through the day. Both MA and TNH continued their extended run with 4% days, another $100+ gorilla FWLT had a nice follow through day and closed with a NCH. You wanna talk about extended, how about that LPHI!.lol.   It probably causes a few hearts to skip a beat the way it trades intraday, but at the end of the day it closes at the the days high once again.  When a stock does get extended you might get a RCCC reaction day sooner than later. Oh yeah this one has bounced nicely off 9ema around $30 last so keep an eye on for a trade possibility here at that point.

Besides adding CMED off earning early on,  there was nothing new we bought.  We actually did more selling today, reducing some position sizes such as in KHDH, now KHD on nyse just to lock in some profits. 

KMGB shrugged off the IBD omission nicely.

MFLO reversed nicely back to $23 intraday. This one is fixated on $23 and it makes you wonder how many shares can go at that price before something positive happens.

Hopefully tomorrow brings some excitement..with a bullish bias of course.

Thursday
Jun212007

Better than nothing....

"We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?." 

Well...we didn't get any news noise in the morning but we still got an early continuation bump from yesterday, which was hardly a surprise considering what was a sizeable drop.  By 10am we hit that 2590ish mark (2586 low to be exact) and the rest is history.  Last night we thought there was no reason to fret, simply the bears caught the bulls napping after 3 days of churning yesterday.  That's the way we felt while it was all going on and later last night after catching our breath.   If it was the yield climbing yesterday...why didn't we go lower as it climbed to 5.19% today?.    Are we satisfied with today's reversal?.   The answer is no, but that could change tomorrow.   You see DJIM stocks have a way outperforming the indices and not performing on par when the market rallys.   We have seen this time and time again and have written about it many times.   Despite the rally today, it was really only for the techs on the Nasdaq...even the big caps really didn't perform to NASD snuff.   There were a few DJIM's that bounced nicely off low's...MA 6 pts...TNH 12 pts..FWLT got in the grove late for 3 pts, but the problem was with many of the small-micro caps that have been running here that didn't perform as we would have liked.   This list includes SDTH, KMGB, CMED, LXU, AIRT, VSNT etc. but a few did like LPHI, TBSIGHM  (34k vol. woo hoo).   Still..besides the few it was uninspiring in the scope of things, but at least yesterdays fall did not continue today.   So..maybe we shouldn't be so picky....Yeah right!.  Let others and their niches have a good time while we are predominately left out.   NO WAY, JOSE!

If today wasn't just a blip like the fall yesterday was....well then we expect some action in the DJIM stocks that did little today to move tomorrow. This is even if the market digests today's gains and does little all day...but we do have the Blackstone (BX)  IPO tomorrow, which should help the karma on the trading floors.  Maybe it can spread...

.

Monday
Jul022007

The importance of holiday trading...

To say that we had a pretty good day today simply does not do its justice.    What we had today is one of the best days in 2007, in our opinion.   This is not an exaggeration.   Of course, you still have to be familiar with all of the names that we have been trading during the past few weeks, in order to fully appreciate what we feel.     What caused the market action today?     Two words, holiday trading!    Still, this is just not just any holiday trading.     In order for a good holiday trading week to work, we definitely need some ingredients.    One, there has to be money waiting to be put into work.   Two, market has to be near at or close to the high in order to attract the momentum.  Three, there needs to be something optimistic(earning season this time) that people can look forward to.    Basically, we had just about all three ingredients and we kicked off this holiday trading week with literally a bang.     This is back to the topic why we are stressing the importance of holiday trading.   Now we know what makes a good trading environment, and if you are like us dedicated professional, or if you simply have a passion for trading, this is the kind of week you just CAN NOT let go by.   Folks, taking a much needed week off and enjoy the weather and other activities is fine if you need it badly.   For others, this is a week where you can probably take some serious revenge from this market by profiting from quite a few opportunities.

Yes, market is pretty forgiving right now and many traders are doing just fine.    We at DJIM, however, feel that this is the kind of time where we have to absolutely out work and out perform other traders in order to make our lives a little easier when the going gets tough.    See, it's always about making a killing during an easy trading environment and survive during a tough environment.    If you can't make a meaningful percentage gain in this kind of market, what odds do you really have when the market heads the opposite direction.

Our game plan, is to lock in those potential huge winners with sizable positions and ride it on the back of this favourable condition.     We have been ultra aggressive today in terms of adding positions(mostly familiar ones) to our portfolio and doing it with a much bigger size than we'd normally do.      There are simply too many stocks to name at this moment so we are gonna highlight some worthy ones tonight....   if you have built your watchlist around DJIM names last few months, you'd know which ones are doing good today.

 

PENX, what may take some stocks a year to accomplish took this stock only three trading days to achieve.     Sure, I'm only talking about its 35% runup since the time it announced its earning, excluding its gap gain of 20% off the news.     This one is just HOT!     This stock actually surpassed our most optimistic expectation up to this point.    So, the rest will be just so easy and simple at this point.     We'd stay aggressive with this one.

TNH, holiday trading brings out some animal spirit out of many stocks and we didn't expect anything less from this one.   This one got a NCH today and closed near its high of the day.    Given its past performance we'd expect some good follow through off a good move.

LPHI, this one still needs to battle over 9 ema and today may be a good cause to get back in some with the assumption that the play is not over.   We did buy alittle back today but we'd watch this one closely in case if it shows any kind of weakness.

CUB, for a while, we felt the play might be over but today it literally breathes new life into this one.   It took out the $30 mark convincingly and it looks as though it's ready to start a new leg.   Again, this is an unusual kind of week and we'd always bias those that breakout and make new highs.

FWLT, this one spent literally a month during its current trend line between 100 and 110.   Currently sitting at the upper end of its trend line with a strong close, again given the bullish sentiment from the market, we feel this may be able to breakout cleanly.   We bought some today and looking for the breakout.

RRST, we actually traded this one a while ago but it didn't do much for us.    We are back in it again and thinking this time it may get some momentum going.    This one actually has a pretty high IBD rating(98 95 as of tonight) and we think with the recent RS, it can potentially move up in ranking.

FSLR/LDK/JASO/TSL,  so we added TSL to our mix of solar plays today.    This group basically goes with every other momentum plays.    When market is up, count on this group to shine.

Some of the other stocks closing at high or strongly and we've been trading actively include DRYS AZZ RIMM GTLS RCCC SNHY BTJ TBSI TRCR MR EDU...

Sunday
Jul082007

DJIM #28 2008

In a typical holiday week trading fashion, things just went by quickly.    At the beginning of the week, we stressed out the importance of holiday week.   True to our belief, there was no shortage of plays and many were very opportunistic.    As the week has gone by, we are basically back to the point where we expect a flurry of earning reports.    Unlike the other quarters, this earning period seems to last the shortest with possibly the worst market reaction.    This is typical of this time of the year.    However, judging by the enthusiasm we've seen during the past few weeks, it doesn't really feel that we are slowing down, as far as trading goes.    Perhaps this has alot to do with the fact that the market is sitting relatively near the year high.   When the market is at or near the high, there always tend to be opportunities, and people always tend to be optimistic and are willing to put money into work.    This is just the way our psychology works.

So far, we had RIMM to thank for.   In the coming weeks, we are going to see more reports coming out.   Some reports will be praised and some will not be.    As far as our game plan goes, we are going to sift through reports that spawn the strongest trading reaction, positively of course.   We'd try to catch those that hopefully give us enough time and room to play.     

here are some strong plays from last week that may carry over into the coming week....

DRYS/TBSI, these two are the only two shippers we played last week and both of them pretty much closed out the week near the high.   At this point, we like DRYS's chart slightly better as TBSI looks a little too extended at this point.   However, we've learned too much from the past that we can only be so cautious.    A play will run its course whenever it decides to.   For us, even when we decided we should raise our cautionary flag, we'd still only keep it in the back of mind and react quickly once the reversal does happen.    Basically, we just have to be better prepared when the action gets too extended.

LPHI, this one is beginning to look better now.   After its initial sell of and the breach of 9 ema, it seems to stabilize the last few days.    If it can break the $36 area, we'd be back in full force.

AZZ, this one had a pretty good earning reaction and last few days have just been phenomenal.    It's now back near the old high and we'd see if it gather enough momentum to start a fresh legup from this point.

FWLT, volume didn'st seem to drop that much last week.   This is a good sign as the stock basically broke out from its consolidative trendline.   How high can it go or will it go?     We don't know but we know that we'll play this one untill the music stops.

FSLR/JASO/LDK/TSL,  we added TSL to the group last week.   This group has done some nice work last week.   As long as the 9 ema is in tact, we are trading them actively.

PENX, can this one pull a LPHI or RCCC?   In honesty, we'd like to see this one consolidate a bit.   The sooner it can consolidate, the better chance it can pull another runup.    We are keeping our eyes on this one very closely.

DDUP/SCOR, these two recent tech IPOs are hot on our list last couple of days.   We like their action in conjunction with the rest of the tech sector.   We think the runup will definitely carry into next week and we'd be trading these two aggressively.

Other notable gainers last week include SPAN MBLX GTLS CUB BTJ TRCR...

Sunday
Jul152007

DJIM #29  2007

The easiest thing to do would be to speak of the big market move last week, but we won't do that and instead look forward to the week ahead. Hopefully, we steered you in the right direction in our Journals the past while and you have stayed invested heavily in the market and our plays as they were the beneficiaries as much as anything else last week. Just looking at the list from DIM #28...DRYS TBSI LPHI AZZ FWLT PENX DDUP SCOR FSLR TSL LDK JASO and you see who played with enthusiasm.  If you need still need to grasp the significance of last weeks action, just look at the weekend charts/comments.  Funniest quote so far heard though, is ..."meanwhile while the media is enjoying their victory lap, many investors are less than enthusiastic about the moves in their accounts at the end of the week....they didn't see the same huge gains in their accounts".  Name the the tout and win a free month at DJIMstocks...NAH, that wouldn't work as too many of you are quite familiar with this singer.  Sounds like sour grapes for some reason, if you ask us!.   At this point in the game, we have to look for some potential stalled action, fortunately we have earnings as the base of this DJIMstocks and it should not stop us from going forward as earnings will pick up this week and new picks will start to show their colors.  We already had some nice reports from CCF, GBX, SCHN  indicating a diverse crop of good reports possibly to follow. Use our Earnings Dates link to see some notables reporting.  Again, we ask for members to post within that link any earning dates for DJIM stocks past and present plays you might come across and we will edit them into a list for all to keep track of this Q.  Going forward, we're basically keeping to the same list as last weekend of stocks we are concentrating on, plus a few new ones that appear all over DJIM last week.  Take into consideration some stalling action in the market realistically should come to some of our names as well.  When that happens we wait and see if the stock sets up again for us to enter a buy in. Examples of this are PENX and DDUP late Friday. LPHI was another were patience is rewarded as it put in a 5pt move after we moved in again.  There is not much to add to individual stocks that was not already said last week, nothing has changed really in our thinking towards those plays  A few other breakouts of past DJIM stocks that we have not signalled out but have been mentioned in our forum such as CMED, SPEC should also be included in any watchlist. The most important thing right now is probably to start freeing up some cash if you are heavily invested to use on new plays that will emerge.  It is quite hard now as everything seems to be running and gunning out there, but it is something you might start doing this week.

Wednesday
Oct102007

..Boy Scouts

We welcomed a surprise Fed minutes stimuli in yesterdays Journal to get us out of a meandering market place and we got it good!.  Well..pretty good as the volume still sucks out there.    The policymakers acted like boys scouts in their last open committee meeting as all agreed.   A united group they stand.    As much as anything this shared analysis, therefore a determined effort by all on the correct response provided the kick we needed, included in this was Poole's comments that for once didn't rattle the markets.    There were no differences as earlier and this was probably the most important factor seen by the big players.   Equities simply rallied as the FED did not see broad based weakness in the economy and the market said let's get on with it and put the credit squeeze behind us.     A few M & A deals were overshadowed, but this was also a good sign.   Again, as discussed in the weekend edition of DJIM# 41, good trading is a case of being in the right stocks that would potentially move the best when the market gets a lift and therefore gives a lift to your stocks on the good news. ..."....Simply,  if you had the right stocks the probability was they would be the ones that would give the strongest day.   You have to feed off good news and use the lift provided by news to lift your stocks.   What stocks will be the beneficiary, which have the best chance of catching volume???.  Always ask yourself.   We should all know from the group of stocks we cover".        If you have your hand in these closely monitored stocks you'll know what we mean...starting with...

DRYS TBSI  EXM and the secondaries noted yesterday premarket ESEA/PRGN.  All up 5-10% on the day with DRYS the volume monster.  It was already a good day for all of these before the minutes gave them another round of kicks higher.  The Baltic Dry Index the gauge of freight costs was toying with the 10,000 point level.   The demand from emerging markets is incredible with port congestion in many a country.  The capacity is drained and these boys can kick up rates.   This is nothing new as this has been expressed here constantly, including yesterday.  A possible good sign is other smaller plays are participating in this last binge buying and it all started with the, ..."The shippers, notably DRYS TBSI moved off 9ema yesterday. EXM should follow if this small reversal holds" noted Friday morning.   A helluva run from that short term support area of the 9ema.  Maybe this FREE can catch on if the micros piggyback action in recent days continues, unfortunately, that bloody ARCA on level 2 is still on the ask and not showing his hand.  Once removed this could really move just off its tiny float. 

GS,  if you want a barometer for this market lately look no further.  The drift, the lull of fence sitters was evident in the action of GS proceeding the minutes.   Interestingly, we thought this was setting up to hear a clue of more interest rate cuts in the near term to drive it higher yesterday. Instead, it fed off the news and took a different approach as to signs the boy scouts gave.  To gauge the minutes reaction all you had to do was to watch GS's reaction.   It was evident instantly, we might be in for a good stretch run late in the day.   If we had to pick a large cap, we're glad GS has been a fave here since those recent $190's.

VMW,  recently we talked of this having a shot at 90+, yesterday we talked of $100..what next ?lol.  We're happy to have this as the tech stock of choice if the techs continue forward off good earnings.  Again, you don't need a lot of stocks, you just need the right ones.

STV,  a simple follow up is that it held the morning open prices after retracing to them midday. We'd keep an eye on that level in the short term if breached as a possible exit before re-entering at a later point. Otherwise ...have fun!. Just don't forget there is a market out there beyond watching the minute ticks of this all day.   If STV has you on the edge of the seat because you fear the drops it already has given, take a smaller position.  You don't want to miss other opp's this market gives daily.

A few others from our Journals.....LDK, trade it, flip it..we just won't hold it overnight.   A day turnaround does not make an uptrend in our minds.  Company can say one thing, but a few want to see the independent reports and simply the problem there is not yet solved or the stock would be up much more.     Looks like a lawsuit or two is coming already.     AZZ, maybe closed the gap created by earnings and will act like the earnings guided stock it should be..maybe not.   GLDN,  not sure why this reacted this way to a raising of guidance, this is a low float stock and sometimes you lose sight of that because of the group its in and make more of a move than you should.   One thing to consider is while STV might be the Digital play in China, a huge conversion to digital tv is going on in Russia where TV penetration is at 97%.   GLDN is not a pure telecom play, it is a Digital TV play as well and that will be slowly recognized over time.    CETV, this euro stock was a big winner here before and we took a place in it yesterday as it approaches old highs.     A focus here was creating a new watch list of tradable stocks for our members, over time this list has grown and some might be page on 2 or 3 now as those plays wore off.   As noted yesterday in the forum,  it's good to have past flyers around as they may fly again.   History is no mystery.  If a stock was a fast mover that we once liked, it might be again.    AXR might have been one the last few days, but there is a bigger past mover out there in AMAG $55-72 that has had a great month so far.       FWLT, GHM, GTLS might be ones to stick on closer watch again.

Despite the action in afternoon, volume is still a concern.   A few fell off the fence on to the long side yesterday, but not as many as we'd like to see.   What you don't want to see is a continued divergence in the volume with a ladder walk up in points on the major indices.  This is what we are seeing in the NYSE and SPX stuff.