Ahead of the open, (10-02)

Anyone expecting a ‘supposed’ Greece agreement to be a market mover was disappointed. Anyone expecting ECB to hint on long term liquidity operations was marginally disappointed as well; Draghi kept it all under his vest, but you’d do the same not to screw up demand for the 36month LTRO on 02/29, (so, it’s not really a surprise).  In all, Draghi was more positive on associated Eurozone risks, which could have been good enough for the market sentiment now, but it wasn’t.  Only thing to materialize was more of the same as another morning dip was bought, swinging the SP a few points above previous days close.(Can you say.. all AAPL!).  Tape gets thinner as R2K slightly underperforms again and in this view CSCO demonstrated the fatigue angle noted to watch off earnings yesterday.  Last week’s note of high expectations bar set: eco’/earnings/ Eurozone possibly being priced in reared its head today with Initial claims/ CSCO/ Greece/ECB being the role players.

Still, although the tape is seemingly going sideways, it’s really gliding and can move into SP1370 this month after hitting our 1350’s target on a breakout from 1327.  The market may have hit July ’11 highs today and a few other possible technical points are inches away for resistance, (but, feels in many ways like it did preceding last week’s breakout, including the negative feeling tired).  Considering the magnitude of the technical breakout that followed last week, which includes many other factors beyond ’07-’10 trend-line break (ie, #of new highs noted) confirming the move, it wouldn’t surprise to tack on more SP points down the road,(Bernanke may/may not help some Friday?).  All in, due to the factors noted above, it just may take more than the very shallow dips we’ve seen this week for this to occur.

Software gave tech/ Nasdaq a bid off the TLEO deal (SABA >6%) and AKAM earnings. Aided softies FTNT FIRE CVLT  here to fresh highs.

In all, stocks Shadowed’ prior to July crash are once again reporting excellent results. (latest ie. RL  WFM  V.)  Also, names like AKAM  have been rebooted by earnings after falling off the list early last year.

Ahead of the open, (23-03)

Is this time going to be any different?.  Do the markets do a 3-peat in Q1?   

As the market (SP) closes lower for a third straight day, (~26 SP handles from ’12 intraday highs to today’s low), we ask if it will turn out like the 2 other shallow pullbacks this year?.  The last pullback and reversal is still pretty vivid here,  “…what happened was only a repeat (shallow pullback) of January’s 3 day/~35 SP handle drop, including a 200+DJIA decline day followed by a complete reversal to within 4pts of February highs."

The premise in early March,..” ..'Ahead of the open’ with the market at weeks low of SP1340 with NFP just 2 trading days away, asked, “Question now, is it better to wait on NFP#’s now or buy the dip now below broken support???.   And concluded with, ...“Still, if you believe in the recovery, it's hard not to get in on a ~35SP move off highs in front of the NFP# sooner than later”.  If an investor missed the ~65 SP point ride that followed in March, how long can you stay away this time?.   Some of the old culprits in the last pullback have returned with China, leading ‘a commodity swoon’ once again today.  Did they ever go away?  Basically, the same concerns discussed all month here are ringing through the marketplace today with the ‘risk off’ trade paying the price…sometimes it’s the Precious metals etc, today it was crude, base metals, but all in, it’s still a commodity demand worry linked sell-off. 

But, one thing that remains constant is the idea, “On 01/03 noted the possibility  ...”A commodity led correction, but not necessarily one that will take equities down very much!”.   Despite the selling in materials, steels, coals etc. today, the IBM type mega tech caps, internets, consumer stocks performed very well indicating equities are hard to take down as money flows through equity groups.  Although RUT gapped down and underperformed, listed names here covering a broad range all finished green with many others only marginally in the red. (ie. ULTA FOSL LVS  LULU  PCLN  N FFIV  V  PMTC BIDU  SXCI  LQDT)

All in, the market got something to talk about, but in the end the same trends remain until/unless more concrete data hits.  Example,(same trend), Initial claims was another robust # bringing in another fresh cycle low. (4wk avg.). 

The market ‘headlines’ and it’s gurus did their best to alarm the ‘Bull’ with the remix of the old hit..Hard ' China' landing and Eurozone recession fears.  It seems a .5 to .7% drop on the major indices is really a big deal today.  It’s almost comical.  Starting the "Ahead of the open' with “Do the markets do a 3-peat”  is even comical as the market is not even through stage 1 of a true 3-peat play(of ~35 handles).  It’s only been hit~26 SP pts. (H to L), so far!.   Incidentally, a trip of 10 more pts would take it to February highs and mark another ~35 ‘shallow’ pullback.  A few other supports are in the 1370’s.  It would’ve been ideal spot for dip buyers to pounce for month/Q end window dressing, but no such luck today!.