DJIM hold/hit list #13

Back in October, we stated that November is seasonally a strong quarter for small caps.     Near the end of October, we stated that we just could not wait till the small cap earning season to start.    Well, we aren't disappointed, so far.       Maybe  it seems that all we had to do is to come back from a 8 month vacation and trade from November till February.    Now that would just be too easy plus we could have missed all the DJIM action from late August..just go to the Journal Archive.  The truth is, without the hard grind of the summer, without going through the emotional roller coaster with the market from the first trading day of the year, none of us would stay as focused, or sharp when the time mattered the most.     Well, here we are now.   We have had literally a stream of awesome small cap action last few days and we are trying our best to make the most out of it.    It means all out for us.    Folks, if you hadn't committed much time, energy, capital or effort into the market last few days, we'd say you are gonna be sorry a few months down the road.     Here are some plays we really like that showed up last little while...

ATNI, this is definitely not a flashy stock like some of the other heavy hitters.    It has very good earnings and it moves in stealth mode.   Before you know it, this thing can move 20% without making any kind of headline.    It broke out on Friday and we are keeping a close eye on this one. We added back. Friday looked like the day it would break all those candle wicks on the daily. http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/11/1/atni-atlantic-tele-network.html

GMKT, this stock had a very powerful move on its earning day and it smelled lots of institutions stepping in to bid it up.    A very sexy business and a dominant player in its area and with the holiday coming up, we think this one is gonna be in play for a while.

DLB, wow what a report this one had.   Ok, this isn't exactly a small cap but man you gotta give those guys a thumb up on their execution.   It took out multi year high, literally in one day of trading.    Now it may not give you another 33% gain day anymore but we bet it caught lots of people's attention on Friday.

Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.22 per share, $0.11 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.11; revenues rose 29.4% year/year to $102.1 mln vs the $83.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $0.83-0.92 vs. $0.75 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $420-450 mln vs. $405.67 mln consensus.

MEK, it made it to IBD #5.   How will trade from now on?   We think it could trade with the group but with a better beta action.   Other plays we also consider in the same genre include BTJ ALY FTK. 

TRT, ah ha!    This one is not an unfamiliar name, far from it.     The latest quarter simply confirms the status of the stock, it's not going to be a micro cap anymore.   Bring it on Zeff boy!.  Nothing new to say, just scroll down our pages or go to the archives to get your TRT fill.

EDU, didn't we say this one could make some easy money?  Lol  Ok, nothing is easy in this business.   What this stock did the last few days, is simply giving back to all the believers and followers of DJIM site. Same as TRT, you can find your fill of EDU write ups as it seemingly has been with us since day one.....3 rides now!..Recycle, recycle we say. If EDU doesn't cut it one day....MR has picked up the slack and vice versa.  Late this week MR hit a new high 20.57. DJIM's Super Ninja's are sure to provide more excitement.

FSYS, this play is new and we think it can get some legs out of its report. We put an eye out on it early Friday morning in MC, its action perked up and we entered.Reported Q3 EPS of $0.22 vs -$0.63 in 3Q05; (est.$0.13c), revs rose 13% YoY to $55.4 mln vs.44.1 mln est. Co' raised 2006 rev guidance to at least $210 mln, up from previous guidance of $200 mln.  This alternate fuel segment needs some new trading blood, maybe Fuel Systems Solutions will be it.

AAON, we introduced this earning gem Wednesday morning. Not only did it take out the $25 we spoke of, it took on $26 Friday. Definitely, a A-Team member!

GLDN, we also introduced back some Russian blood with this Telecom/Internet provider. Volume has really picked over October and into early November with its earning release. 35% revenue growth, 40% net income YOY, 16% revenue, 7% net sequential growth.

RIMM, yep...we raised the RIMM flag as it became the 11th 25+% move in 12 weeks of DJIM. The action Thursday left it with a little toppy action. Every other day they seem to have a need to strike a blow into RIMM, Friday it was MOT's deal with Good Tech. This has been going on endlessly and RIMM just keeps making new highs. Nothing is wrong with RIMM for those wanting to play it out further, but we feel there are better chances of a finding another 25% move elsewhere...faster. We'll still keep a close eye on it as it's in the Constitution of Canada to do so;)

EFUT, is one we are trading as the Yahoo's are all over it. Definitely not for those that plan to have many bathroom breaks during the day.

It was just on Halloween that we took a cautious stance as many of the DJIM stocks felt toppy, by the close of Friday November 3rd we started to use up the cash with 6 or 7 buys. The names are changing, growing fast and furious during the past week. Buy the strength and don't sit on the UCTT's that are clearly lagging the uptrend.  Honestly, what are you waiting for?  You also have plenty of oil/energy names to rotate in and out of depending on the oil picture. If you have your DJIM list close by and have created a watchlist/buy list of these stocks, last week was a very fruitful one.  For more DJIM names read the commentary of the past week plus glance over the charts for ideas to trade.

Jon/ Demi

DJIM index outperformed

most of the day big time....You know you're in a groove when AH a DJIM neglected shoots up 20% as you're about to call it a day. Only this afternoon TRMS was setting up after a great EPS. Everything else has been so hot, this one has been placed to the side as it consolidated.  We thought TRMS had the earnings and a story to go with it, today management decided to reveal a new direction...the story behind the new found EPS strength....You also know things are going for you when you're not scouring for the next EPS gem, pre market or AH. Why?...Because we already have them for ourselves and DJIM readers since their first trade after earnings!. Has anyone noticed AAON (nice day), ATNI are probably up 20% since getting space on DJ Journal.  Not bad in a week to two.  A lot of you love the juice of the runners, the EFUT, the CAAS's but for a complete healthy diet, we strongly recommend only one thing around here ( besides not holding into earning).  That is spread yourself out a bit, one day you'll get flushed by a runner and you won't have anything to buy these crawlers with. To us they are crawlers, to the funds that accumulate ...these are sound investments.  The daily speed might not be there for you, but the gains of 25+% in a month, a quarter is nothing to sneeze at. We doubt many places can offer you the experience of finding, trading the momentum stocks as well as the ones your financial advisor might find suitable for your family book. The best thing is we hate "RED" and avoid all to see such in one of our buys. The worst thing we could ever do is procrastinate, its not extensive DD'ing, its the action, the volume that gets us in most stocks. The time lapse between finding something we like and the time we pull the trigger, is quite short... but this doesn't mean chasing a stock without getting the 'feel for it.  This is how we avoid the "RED".  It is also the confidence in seeing and doing it all over again. This is the same confidence that rubs off on many readers of DJIM that have been with us for what is probably 3 years now.  BT is one of them we're happy to say. Charts paint a history, the stocks characteristics are embedded. This is why we recycle,(TRT most recently) our hitlists/ watch lists rarely take up more than one screen to get the job done.     So what happened today........Confidence, experience told us we'd have probable gaps for EFUT and CAAS...we've seen it and crazily feel it sorry to say..lol..we have no life...Its never too late to buy in the last 10-15 minutes, it is actually the best time for us in adding a position.  CAAS was $10.30 or so when we said a gap was probable, a gap is not the thing you see only in the morning open.  It is a stock running to 11.70 AH as well.   EFUT, we were confident in putting it up back to back on closes at DJIM.  We said this was something else, tonight we're glad to say its someone else's.  This is not the bread and butter of DJIM, we wrestled the idea of even mentioning it Friday..but felt comfortable with the gap idea end of day.  A $2 track or lotto ticket is all we would place on it short term as of this afternoon(MC).  Incredibly the insanity of watching, dealing with EFUT didn't take away from watching, trading other DJIM stocks. The super ninjas muscled out their cheaper cousins, the C-team of Chinese stocks. EDU, MR outclassed the bunch and finished the day with NCH's..each up about 10% at the highs. There was GROW getting the 'volatility' management just loves;)...DLB a quiet 3%, TRT unfortunately gave up the highs..guess its best to see the charts for the rest of the story of the happenings around here...oh AXR recently mentioned as part of DJIM A-team with AMIE, APH (back to $69), we were a little too full today to enjoy this ride, hope some of you caught it!

A long DJIM trading day!......VNDA>>DLB

We prefer to remind ourselves tonight why we DON'T play the biotech/pharma game instead of taking out the poms-poms for DJIM.  Of course the gains can be tremendous as we saw by the first alert trades in VNDA..$21 to $22, that's about 35-40% from yesterdays close.  But... what if we play this game of Russian roulette and we wake to a drop of the same size because of poor results and then we go lower and lower before the bell.  One thing we recognized recently and mentioned last week is VNDA has the capabilities of getting MOMO as seen in November.  We didn't expect a release, just a breakout from this tight range as the stock was acting funky lately, yesterdays close showed some hidden promise...This (momo) was clear and center in our minds as the stock gapped to $21, 35-40% was nothing for this stock, we knew it was capable of doing much more and the first thing we did was probably add 10X the size we already held.  The gains off those morning trades made the pick ups at $15+ a backdrop as the stock traded $28+ and another 35% off the first trades this premarket.  The point is simple, we have never seen the risk in playing these worthwhile and tying up cash...waiting and waiting for some trial news.  At the end it comes down to what you do after the 'news', not before!. We doubt this will turn into anything close to the ACOR we played here, but there will probably be a leg here or there to jump on as this stock gets discovered.  Right now, it might become more of a Pharma acquisition play. Many big Pharma are losing sleep and going a little schizo these days, VNDA could be their cure.

While the DJIM China stocks rest, their comrades the Russian telcos seem to be acting just fine. MBT, VIP, ROS and led by GLDN showed strength in a lacklustre market. GLDN, the volatile of the bunch continued yesterdays bolt to new highs, volume has been excellent the last two days. ROS is the crawler in the family, we alerted under $38 and today finished 39.69. Nice chart if you have a second to spare.  MBT and VIP seem like they don't want to consolidate for too long and instead make a run for the recent highs. As market deteriorated after 2pm, these seemed to hold and even pick it up throughout the day. We'll see tomorrow.

So our DJIM day started at 7:30am with VNDA and was still ticking at 6:00pm with a Cramer tick on DLB with a $30+..Guess the man got the alerts this week;). We would have preferred to let this play out on DJIM time but we won't be afraid to take some early profits if its called for tomorrow.  Stay on your toes tomorrow for the market, don't give up what you've earned.

DJIM hold/hit list #17

No denying last week DJIM concentration of stocks outperformed the indecies once again. By mid-week the major indecies ran into some resistance from the rally that began the previous Friday, this is clearly seen in yesterdays charts on DJIM Journal. You can also see the market rise early last week was met with some profit taking on the Nasdaq as the money flow diverged.  What also diverged was the action of the DJIM stocks as many closed with NCH(new closing highs), some were mild but still NCH's by fridays close while the market did little to add on gains late.  These include ALY, BTJ, DLB, JST, HMIN, ZOLL, EDU and a nice tick off the 9ema on MR.  Last weekends DJIM #16 concentrated on the 3 segments we have been riding the uptrend with...China/Asian stocks, Russian telcos and the baby oils and of course the always ready to go,  GROW.  

Interestingly, the baby oils services continued to roll on Friday after the oil sector reversed around noon and oil went from the mid 63's to low 62's, but did not take ALY, BTJ with it.  ALY tacked on about 15% and BTJ another 6% on the week.  

Besides GROW's seemingly fast and climatic rise from 50 to $60's, it managed to create the usual buying opp on the dip as witnessed Friday. We have stated, GROW is in trader territory more than ever and you need to be on constant watch at these prices or at least have buy in dip points in place for another possible trade and push up.  The Asian stocks continued their march with MR, EDU, HMIN up 8% on the week, we cannot forget the cheaper JST which provided a 20% trip with a few bumps in between. The other group we have built around is the Russian telcos which we jumped all over at MBT's earnings.  VIP started the week at $76 and climbed to high $81's and now has been basing with MBT in the backseat.  GLDN tacked on about 3 points and ROS continued its steady crawl.  As always, we look for new opportunities to sandwich in between the heavily followedDJIM stocks in good and bad market days. 

Also this week, we again introduced AXR off earnings and a quick trip from 98-107, BIDU is another one we are trading right now.   Unfortunately, many still think a $100+ stock is not capable of producing nice quick returns and prefer to buy the speculative MAMA's that wear army boots.  

For many all the action in the 3 segments might have been irrelevant if they caught the VNDA moon shot. After mentions December 1st and 4th in DJIM alerts, we and many of you early risers caught the morning alert at $21 -22.  If not maybe some of you were accumulating some with us in the $15's.  This launch was enough for many to call it a week, some a month if you are confident in DJIM words that this was capable of catching the MOMO and jumped at the opp to load up pre market.  We enter week #17 with the same cast, holding many, ready to hit on and add to others..(eg. russan basing telcos like VIP, MBT) as many DJIM's finished the week at or near NCH's, which could be a passport to further gains if the market does not a pull one over eyes early on. 

The only recent DJIM names we are ignoring for the most part is the tech names which have shown distribution with the rest of the Nasdaq..RVBD, DIVX.  

If the Grinch takes a peek and starts up, we will gladly sell some of these top performing DJIM names and take the profits to buy new and bigger toys on the market before the year is up!.  We're not finished yet!   We hope after 16 weeks here, many of our new readers are seeing the joy and potential of trading stocks with a earnings base under them...90% of the stocks we have put up on DJIM that have produced great returns are just that...quality, growth producing companies.  If you are longer term investor, doing some DD on the stocks discussed here and buying months ago could have made your year without calling your FA or pressing the sell button ONCE yourself......BTJ,ALY,MR,EDU, AMIE, TRT, RIMM and so on.  There's a little of everything here to suit a variety of investing needs.

POWL....bam...boom

..did you think we were going to get the CRASH...SPLAT too?.  Come on, you did!...Well, if you didn't, we did with the NASD down 20 and the FOMC a few hours away.  Our belief has been the closer we get to the holidays, the farther we are from a correction.  We just don't see Bernanke and his Posse stealing this Christmas after giving us such a ride.  It just wouldn't be fair, would it?.   The problem early was NUE and the NUEsami it could cause that rattled the market...the ripple effect, the wave hitting other steels..metals..titaniums...oh no maybe all the way to China and our dear DJIM China stocks!.  Oh yeah BBY didn't help the cause.  The 2:15 FOMC was almost a pause, nothing too actionable as expected yet it gave the market the little bump it cried for. The NASD spread was 25pts from open to lows, finishing down 11 was just fine.

We liked IPSU's numbers and expect a few follow ups from the analysts they surprised. We were looking for a breakout from days tight range after the FOMC showed all was okay for todays market, but never got it.  Sometimes, stocks need a little time to give it another leg up...recently we wrote on DJIM about POWL and wanting to give it a few days to settle...well, today we alerted to that note and the rest is history from $28 to a $30 close. Sometimes it takes a good stock a few hours to move again, sometimes a few days to be discovered again...sometimes a few weeks.. REXI which hasn't done much since our 1st day run off earnings, maybe will turn now.

If you've been kicking back with some DJIM Russian telcos, you enjoyed the volatile GLDN hitting a NCH with another move. The chart, the volume are all there. If you're in the crawler, ROS..you got a new high $40's as it announced a fast fiber deal with KDDI from Japan-Russia.

Really nothing too exciting today, mostly a bunch of stocks, including DJIM's hitting off new highs early on. This could be a short term top that just provided a higher exit or it could just be a small turn before catching more momentum. The market will let us know soon enough.... EDU smacked 37.96, DLB 31+, MR 27.20, ZOLL 56+  Is this it?. We don't think so and will keep to recycling the best DJIM names and sandwich new plays around the core.  A stock in a uptrend, including the previous days action coming to a new high... might continue a downtrend if it breaks that previous days lows...something to watch and help make exit decisions.

A little bit of everything...

Of course, if you simply stare at the index and listen to CNBC today, you'd find it no more than a torturing experience.     The market seems to be stuck, as suggested by the index action and as well as the commentators would have you believe.    But if you look closely, especially the list off the DJIM stocks, you'd find plenty of action here and there.

The key here for us, is to play those that are attacking the new 52 week high off the DJIM watch list.    When a stock fails to advance or stalls at 52 week high, we reduce and lock in profit.    Having a list of strong stocks and constantly updating by adding new plays and deleting old ones ensure that you are always playing with the best stocks with potentially the best setup.     Here are some highlights..

Russian stocks,  GLDN and ROS continued their march upwards and left their stalled comrades MBT VIP behind.  Eventually these cracked the 9ema recently.  We are focusing more on the first two while keeping an eye on the rest.

Sugarcone, IPSU had a very nice follow through and in fact it was not late buying earlier today.

Surround sound,  Cramer surely discovered DLB at $30 and it's a definite bonus which is already 20% gainer for us.  Briefingcom has been all over it as well.

We also like the follow through on POWL and a nice setup on FTEK.    Two of DJIM's fav. oil co. BTJ/ALY have made new closing highs as well.     This market has become much more selective and it's understandable that many traders simply just want to take it easy for the rest of the year given the long stretch of rally we've had.    The best course of action for us is to let market show us what's working and we'll go from there.  

Short term bets into '07..

No M&A activity is going stop the distribution, profit taking we touched on last night on the NASD.  Add on head banging resistance and you get a 42 point swing from hi to lows of the day.  Some of this showed up in DJIM stocks and a lot of it didn't. You could say a few deserved some profit taking.  AXR and GROW shot to $137+ and almost $70 respectively, both about 5+% above Friday's already somewhat extended close.  You could throw JST into the mix.  Basically the 3 biggest runners exhausted themselves as the NASD turned late morning.   Excluding the oil related issues, AXR/JST sustained the most pain.  There was little pain elsewhere among DJIM names as most finished green..barely ...but green is green!.  The great thing about that is if you scare easily, today provided you with an opportunity to sell your stock near a top while the rest of the market struggled ..

ATNI ZOLL OPTM and almost all the NYSE stocks closely followed at DJIM...DLB MBT VIP closed green.

The best of the day were ABM, which kissed $24 and finished up 2.5% with a NCH.  The other is ROS which tacked on another $1+ and a new NCH. These two definitely have some new found interest out there, we're not the only ones liking how these are trading.

Todays action started with a decline in the small caps but eventually the large caps took over.  If this round of selling continues, never forget your stock could be next.  In small cap land,  they sometimes fall like dominos. The best performers take it hard and those are most likely here at DJIM.  Luckily, this market has had the dip buyers at every turn to support any tumble. It shouldn't be any different into the end of '06 if this was to occur.  We are just leaving it to short term bets now, not too many sleep overs for us.