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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK

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Entries in CPSL (2)


DJIM #20 2008

Unreal, unbelievable run....  Just to think that we were actually dealing with a Bear Stearn crisis as little as two months ago simply makes any trader speechless these days.     We just couldn't think of any other working environment that gives you this kind of dynamics in such a short time.   Sure, we can't compare apples to potatoes but we are sure most of you can understand what we go through doing this gig.     So market goes from hell to paradise in 3 months?  You better believe it!     Ok, it isn't exactly like that!    When we look at the market these days, we are still seeing a lot of troubling sector and believe us,  many stocks are still in the "avoid at all cost" category.     So why is this market so rosy all of a sudden?    One reason we felt that's legitimate is that many market participants are still very bearish about this market.    There's simply too much money on the sideline for those who have a bearish view.    However, when you see the market going up every week and refuse to come down, even the most dedicated bears or cash neutral players would be tempted to get back in on the long side, perhaps with just one foot!     This is enough!   When market data is showing that we are NOT going into a full blown recession mode, everything that has been discounted to that effect earlier is no longer valid.    It's true that we may still see economy worsening and roll into recession, but the market participants don't care at this moment.     With the way the market behaves these days, you can literally be up 10% in a very short time even for a huge fund!  So why not buy up this market, eh?    The other reason for this unstoppable bull move is commodity!    Yes, this has been a money making, profit grinding sector for DJIM and probably all of the DJIM readers.    We were very adamant on this sector a couple of months ago and we are still pounding on all of the plays today.     As we recall, a couple of months ago we said this is gonna be the year of commodity.    As of now, we think this is gonna be a year of commodity that most of us will remember for a long long time!      Perhaps, someone will call this a bubble year for all commodities.    However, we think unlike the bubble years of technology and housing, commodities are very different in nature.     Many of us have never experienced a prolonged inflationary period but maybe we are at the beginning of one?    Of course, we can't jump into that kind of a conclusion yet but believe us, anything is possible when it comes to this market.

Now some sectors in review...

Shippers,  with EXM earning out of the way and DRYS set to report AH, we feel this sector is desperately in need of a pullback.    The further it moves up without a healthy pause, the more likely the group can take some beating on the next pullback.     We'd love to get back into some with sizes on dips though.    At the moment, the risk/reward is only good if we do intraday flips.

Solars, enough is enough, already! Lol    Ok, it seems it's never enough for these solars!   Our favorites have changed recently SOL CSIQ ENER... are just behaving like wild animals and we'd concentrate on these names.    At this point, there's no technical setup and the only spirit out there when comes to the solar sector is buy as many as you can!   Ok, again, we like pullbacks in this group and otherwise we'd only resort to day trades.

Coals, it seems this is the only commodity group that actually trades in a proper manner.   Also, this is the most under hyped commodity group out there. Our most recent add-ons to the group have been incredible led by PCX and ANR   We like its steady pace and this is the group which we don't mind adding on strength for a longer term hold.

Oil, any dip is a buy until the thing hits $145, which is cloe to Goldman's new target price.    As much as we hate this fact, it seems "cheap oil" is going to be nothing but a pipe dream from now on.

Steel, this is the same story as other commodity and price power is the main driving force here.    We like X, , MTL, SCHN the most but we also like the

Bottom line here, stick with the plays that work and don't wander off to other area.   This is still very much a commodity story.


We've had a major reversal since preparing this mid-day as aggressive profit taking took place.  Many here were probably oblivious or didn't care what the market did in the afternoon as our consecutive alerts on CPSL from last Friday saw it not only gap, but explode further, up to 40%.  We'd look for an aggressive pullback to buy back.   As far as the market pullback, we all saw a similiar one last Wednesday, but considering this one is now the second one is the last 4 trading days, we'd be a little more cautious  and think maybe the market needs more than a day cool down like last week.   Jumping back in as quickly as last week may have to wait a little longer.   Still..everything holds as to what we'd concentrate on and unless we get break say 1415 on the SPX/ 12893 DJIA, we wouldn't worry too much.  Consider all these spirals an opportunity to get back some names you like sooner than later.


..what's the fuss, we were fuzzy on CPSL, CLR

Sure, the major market indices from highs to lows have dropped 430/ 73/ 31, DJIA/NASD/SPX respectively, in a 1.5 days, but we've had some of the easiest gains back to back thanks to alerts on CPSL and CLR yesterday.  Not only were they easy gains, they were continous throughout the day and excessively high giving plenty of potential to all of us at DJIM to get in on.  Oh yeah as in CPSL, we will wait to get back in on CLR.    The same can be said from the excellent Forum discovery of PDO from last week.    When things run like these, our greed does not get as excessive as the action does.     As far as we're concerned their moves couldn't have happened at a better time as the market rests and digests the move from March.    Rest doesn't always mean sideways action, it means pullback off a lot of profit taking when the run is excessive in a short period of time as it was now.   We noted before the trading day the market may rest more than a day it needed last week due to the fact Monday's reversal was the 2nd big one in the last 4 days.  It surely did as it fell at least 240/40 on the DJIA/NASD by 2pm.  The fall was precipitated by a break of the 12893 DJIA pointed out day before.  This was a technical retracement level and it had no bounce in it.   When this fails as in any support, you know you are going lower and should pack your bags and head for the bunker in the hills for the short term.   But, this wasn't even the case if you had your DJIM list up and saw very minimal damage at 2pm.   Basically what we were seeing was a disconnect between what we trade and follow and what the market indices were doing.    Maybe it would have been better if our commods' took a nice hit and they still may, so we could recycle back into our favorites.    If this occurs today..tomorrow, that's fine with us as we liked the action in stocks like RIMM and a few other techs on our list, even things like V that were hardly bothered yesterday and showed resilience while the market was dumped out.  We think if a bounce is in the cards very soon these types may offer the best short term upside trade as they would climb with the indices.  The commods' may not.  We'll see....

The market has clearly succumb not only to a beautiful move from March, but to record oil and a dead dollar rally in the last few days.  A lethal combination if you are in the wrong places with your trading book.   Fortunately, if your on the same page with us, the DJIM page, you should be well ahead of the game and use this action to start to look for a potential bounce coming.   The SPZ held up so far a few points off the 1415 noted yesterday, but it does not necessarily spell the end of this corrective trade as it sits near a lower trendline possible break.    No time to be a hero, just wait for a confirmation of a trend change.    The other thing to remember... is be selective always in your choices as we try to be on new stocks alerted.