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Entries in DXPE (12)


DJIM #12  2007

For the week, the indices consolidated and despite a reversal Friday there were a few new plays emerging. 'But'..considering we still don't have any indication of where the market will blow, the same strategy holds going into the trading week as we've discussed numerous times.  What you like to do is to hold stocks that are strong when the market turns like it did Friday.  We made a few buys Friday and for the most part they continued strong into the close.

DXPE, might have made it over the hump with its earning.  We've been following DXPE since its first earning surprise below $10 and it kind of feels like it might become a tradable play once again after a long stay in the house of boredom.  Reported .68 vs. 43c/ Rev 79mln vs. 55mln.  What we like is the sequential growth!.   After a couple of flat sequential Q's, this one proved DXPE has some growth left in its tank and that's what you want if you hope momo traders will start looking at it again.  Anyways, it's good to see there might be another play besides BTJ in this sector that fits into DJIM's mold.

HNSN was a nice quick pickup for those buying, not shorting in the $19's for a quick and furious run to over $21 mid day. This is a medical device player that we've traded before and it seems to be picking up some noise again.  This was a perfect example of a stock wanting new highs.  The nice open and then the pullback where you can load up as it starts to move back up.  That's what we did adding to the starter position and blowing past the initial highs.  Patience.  We've kept some but are not wasting 10% trades without taking them profits on the trading position we acquired during the move.  Oh yeah...Seems Cramer thinks its the next

GLDN , we noted Thursday night to keep it up there on your trading list despite a cool first day on earnings.  It pulled off a 5+% move, one of the best on the day and now sits over 9ema.  What impressed us was the volume, end of day it had volume it had not seen since being a DJIM pick up in the $30'S.  We'll see if this means more upside soon enough.

AFAM, our little pick up recently made a quiet debut on IBD #77.

Solar plays will be interesting to watch this week after gettin' a beatin' Friday after some broker comments.  We'd still look to FSLR, especially after IBD's profile this weekend.  Remember, we mentioned CYNO last weekend as an IBD play and the follow up big day Monday.  We think this is a little different as FSLR falls in with many names , while a CYNO was less known and not really thrown in with other names in its sector, so it could move on its own.

For other plays we are following/ or trading, see Thursdays Journal.  Most of those names including HDNG held up pretty good. Some other notables are in charts like NVTL, which just keeps ticking slowly along.


all is well....

That's what most people wanted to feel today probably.   The truth is, we are still working off the ugly damage from couple of weeks ago.    In this case, churning is good and more up days and less down days within a contained range make a good setup for future rally down the road.   Meanwhile, when the index is churning away, we ought to be catching some opportunities and keeping an alerted stance at the same time.    Today.. definitely feels like one of those relaxed days and we welcome that change of pace.   Some stocks we are following...

DXPE,  yes it made it back onto the IBD100 list and this one has had a history of being on and off the infamous list.    Is this a big deal anymore?   We think it's not nearly as big of a deal as it once was couple of years ago.   In fact, the IBD play has toned down so much over the time that we find alot of better plays that aren't IBD associated these days.    The float is one thing that keeps DXPE interesting and as long as there's interest in this one, we are willing to stay in and trade it on the long side, aggressively.

HDNG, why this one still isn't on the IBD100 list while some other "crap" got on is still a mystery to us.    Well, IBD or not, the action still looks very healthy and it notched another high today.

FSLR TSL ASTI, a firm had negative comments on the sector premarket and therefore these names under performed the market.  ASTI has its own issues to get over, the private placement price.  FSLR got a lift from the IBD article and it feels like a less volatile bet at this moment.    We are keeping our eyes closely on these and will re-enter when they gain some momentum to the upside again.

CYNO/ JSDA, both stocks gapped at the open off the positive market and held the gap till the close. We sold off some of the CYNO move, the JSDA we weren't holding.  We'll keep an eye on both for another try.

VIP/ ROS,  it seems that some stocks just won't go away and these pair notched a new closing high today off pretty good volumes.    Yes these are foreign stocks that can be volatile at times.    However, when the momentum clearly shows one direction, this type of move can be very rewarding as well.  If you didn't get in or trade them today, we'd pay attention to the charts as these Russian telcos made not the prettiest of candles giving up quite a bit off the top.  This included MBT, to a lesser degree GLDN.  Be patient for indication this move is real now.

Overall, we feel that market is doing a pretty good job of working out of its corrective phase.   At this point, nobody can say for sure how long this corrective phase will last.    One thing is for sure though is that there's still tons of cash on the sideline and ppl won't hesitate twice to jump into a hot sector, story stock, or a general market rally.    We'll just have to make sure that we get in at the right time to get our money's worth.


waiting for catalyst perhaps?

It seems slowly, if not surely, that people are beginning to forget about the dreadful one day decline we had a couple of weeks ago.  Others are spreading fear that we are in for a rude awakening. We just go with the flow.  We can't predict the market's direction by reading into people's mind, but we can definitely gauge people's mood by reading their action.   Market has again firmed up today without a hint of slowdown anytime soon.   Oracle's earning is apparently good tonight and the fed policy statement is also going to be released tomorrow.   However, what will be the catalyst for this market to get a volume move is still something we are wondering about.   Maybe it'll be a combination of things that'll get things going.     For now, we are simply playing one opportunity at a time and pick only the obvious plays and staying away from those rebound plays. We haven't put up many plays lately, but being selective has produced some nice days in stocks like DXPE,GLDN, HNSN.  When one runs out of gas... get filled up with the next until it's ready again or at least reduce in size to hold through.

ASTI, the reason why we are writing this one first is that we felt many readers may not be up to par on the 1234 setup mentioned on this forum.  Basically, a 1234 setup works if the stcok closes above previous day's range on its fourth day.   We had an attempt earlier but as everyone can see, the setup failed near the end.   The lesson learned here is that it's imperative not to jump into the conclusion of a potential breakout unless it's confirmed.    The confirmation either comes with volume and a break of the resistance and hold through the end of the day.   We noted earlier that we are looking for a break of $8.65 (this was our confirmation to go hard in size soon after) on volume to consider a good signal and guess what?  The day high was $8.62!   Unless flipping for 30 cents or so is your game then staying disciplined is a priority if you are new to the trading small floaters.    Trading aside though, we still think this one is a good play for a solar stock.    The overall solar sector is still in some of a funk right now that none of the other two DJIM big boys can seem to get any steam going, not yet anyway.   We'll just have to be patient and watch and wait for opportunities. 

HURC,  we have been noting this one as one to keep on top of your trading list. Today we got a good close that we've been waiting for to add to. This one in our opinion is ready to start a new leg.

HNSN, it's in play and believe us, it's not just retail traders like us that are putting this one in play.   Momentum is pretty high with this one and we like this sort of breakout that started the other day.

SIMO, this one came out with earning premarket and raised Q guidance ( a sequential declince of 3-7% instead of the previous 15-20% in revenue) and it climbed steadily higher throughout the day.   For some reason, we are actually pretty comfortable trading some selective tech stocks.   This one is also no stranger to trading community and it'd be interesting to see where it goes from here.   We bot a small position today and will watch for signs to add.  SIMO is IBD#6 (98EPS,97RS)

NVTL, this was an alert on the 13.70's and we said it was a steady bugger that survived the meltown. Seemingly nothing has changed as it creeps along. TWeisel came out with some positive comments on the momentum their business is having.

DXPE, a slight pullback is expected and hopefully you all locked in some gains today.   We'd be watching this one closely for a reversal at some point and given the small float, the reversal can come at literally anytime.   If playing conservatively, we'd be looking for the recent high as the breakout point for a chase.


DJIM #13  2007

As we head into another week of trading, we begin to wonder who is doing the 'blowing'. was like hurricane gusts to propel this market.  All this despite oil going back to $62 and a few other world issues that didn't dampen the buying during the week.   Someone ' big' wants this market up...might the earnings and guidance coming up be a reflection of this enthusiasm or we just being set up for a hard thrashing at the awaiting tops???.  The timing seems quite interesting as we approach another earnings season.  Should be interesting.  Our strategy remains the same as we take this day to day, attacking opportunities as they come before us.  Last week was a hoot on many trading fronts....we hope we get a third of it this week.

ASTI provided the speculative trading. We tried to walk our strategy on DJIM cause ASTI seemed to have a chance of catching momo.  This momo can be a powerful thing and could also be a dangerous thing.  We've done the same with EFUT, FFHL giving in depth thoughts as it trades along.  What momo brings is also greed as all of a sudden 20% in a few days is just not enough.  We gave our next entry point as to when we were expecting a break and some momo and then a heads up premarket Friday to watch that good ole' Mr. Greed as the stock gapped and gave you an opportunity to pocket the gap winnings.  We said our script was written to that point, this means Mr.Greed was not going to look over our shoulder the rest of the day.  How will it trade this week?. Who knows but this story will have ample opportunities to trade in and out in the future.  We'll be there in size again but for now we'll hold a small position only.

OEH,  provided the long term DJIM thinking coming to fruition with a 3bln price tag attached. If you didn't take a position on this speculation we talked about a few months ago, it shouldn't have stopped you from buying and profiting nicely in the last 3 days of trading.   It still gave a 2-3 pt day Friday after we pointed out in the forum that the price some are expecting could be higher.  We've held quite a bit into weekend hoping to wake up to a buyout on merger Monday. This is a safer type of greed as we look for a few more points.

The big gains last week came from the Oil/Gas equipment/field services etc and DJIM was there with BTJ and its 13+% week.  Here, we also have DXPE which looks to be building up for a move higher.  If you are going deeper into this sec/energy, we threw out OYOG, which IBD says this weekend  is within a buying range.

On the Russian front, GLDN which was already a go here in last weekends Journal went from low 52's to a few cents shy of $57. But the play mentioned Monday night, might be VIP going forward. Why?. you remember how this went last Q when we took on MBT and then said we could get a spill into VIP and other Russian telcos. Guess what, MBT put out very good earning and this should be a hint of what to expect from VIP's earning.  VIP closed with a NCH Friday.  Also... one of DJIM early plays, WBD made a nice run late in the week to close at NCH and should be potential playlisted.

As far as Solar, we said last weekend they'd be interesting to watch and as it turned out to trade.  FSLR checked in with a 7-8 points during the week.  It tired some Friday, but maybe that was expected as profit taking sunk in after a big week. finished up there on the chart and remains our favorite solar story/stock to trade.

AFAM, NVTL and others are pretty clear over on BT's charts.

CRZ AMAG, we are watching to uncork a few dollars into but we need to see more action to add.

**Remember to visit website and check into DJIM Trader Alerts-Comments to activate email delivery by pressing Subscribe on top of page.  See forum note on this subject as we will be using the link for Alerts- Comments starting Monday.



Go with the flow...

The best thing about us traders is that our trading opinion is purely dictated by the market actions.    Show us what you are made of and then we can act accordingly.    Also fortunately,  that since most of us trade only for our personal account, we don't have to follow a certain trading policy, a rigorous trading doctrine or any guideline that eventually will bound our creativity and potential.   Of course, many mutual funds and hedge funds just don't have that luxury and they have to do what's right and be responsible for their clients.    For us, we just have to do what's best for us.    As we evolve from an amateur trader to a more sophisticated trader, we improve our trading along the way, until we find that working strategy that clicks in with our personality.   And then, we tweak it more and practice and trade more and get more experienced until we find ourselves extremely confident and comfortable with what we trade, how we trade and when we trade.

Hopefully, we try to bring that kind of experience to our readers and eventually help you achieve your goal to become a great trader.

Now onto the  market.    Wow is really the word to describe the action today.    One thing we know coming out of this weekend is that this market will need some sort of a dip to become stronger.    The unknown thing before the start of the day is "how market is going to react to a dip".   Now we know!  Reading the final count is kind of meaningless as most would think it's another boring day.   The intraday action showed that people are willing to buy this dip and buy this dip hard.    Why is this important?    If people think market is gonna visit the recent low again, they wouldn't rush in to buy this first dip so aggressively and early.    It definitely gives great confidence to those that are on the sideline or those that are waiting to put capital into work.   The underlying sentiment is that  it's OK to buy into this market again.   For us, we say game on and it forces us to dip right into the business with some vigor.  The market had more than one reason to be hit and stay down today, incredibly it snapped back.  This shows what we said last night and that there are forces much bigger than all of us at work on this market.

Now some stocks...

DXPE,  it was noted on our forum last week that it had the potential to setup a breakout and we added on Friday.  Last night we reminded DXPE, "looks to be building up for a move higher".  Today we got rewarded and hope you did too!. Party does not seem to be over in this one and it looks like it has more legs behind it.

NVTL, it's inevitable that there's some sort of "sell on news" reaction to its updated guidance today.   The point is that all of us have started playing this one days ago on it's strength and most of us should've been cashing in some or all of the chips.  If you wake to a 18% move on guidance, you should take it.  They didn't exactly find a cure for something to deserve such. We'll keep an eye on it going forward.

CRZ AMAG,  these two closed favourably for us. Even though they may not have the spotlight,  they could be steady "money movers" for us.

JSDA, this one breaks out today and it's definitely acting like it wants to be the other energy drink maker.    We are trading this one according to the action only and have no bias on its fundamentals whatsoever.

OEH, takeover talk..... boring!   Yes it's boring to hear those things these days but the appreciation in the stock in recent days is anything but boring.   Another $1 move and now to $61.60 after being $55 and breaking out as noted in Forum before the takeover talk even started.   We love this one and we are willing to hold onto it for some more development.

AXLA ACAD, finally we have these two to cap off the day.   Take it or leave it, biotechs are hot.   The ones in the news are given such a reward that we can not afford to ignore them.   We've had experience in this schizo market with VNDA, ACAD and so figured this had potential to run as well.  We always give these ones out in the pre-market and hopefully many readers had a chance to get in at a good price on ALXA.  $12.50 to $13 was available at Alert time and for the next 10 minutes or so.  We were probably one of the first to show our love here.  Still, there was plenty in the low $14's to get high $15's out of this news in the short term.  ACAD has held up nicely since its news, we might see the same in ALXA.



DJIM #17 2007

Last week was quite the interesting week.  We go off to a fast start as our closely followed from the previous week struck new big highs come Monday..TSL $68.9, JSDA $32.6, UXG $7.17, JASO $28.30.  What followed was our noted exit before the downdraft began for these plays, which included a few D-grades of note we alerted to Tuesday premkt.  In regards to D-grades, we've said many times we prefer to move on when we see these hit the wires.  Yes..even if your stock wasn't D-graded but is in the same sector, you can expect a sell-off as well.  Especially after a big momo run.  Coincidently, what followed was a few days of boring action in the small caps as the larger caps moved forward.  This action, this divergence started getting many out there saying the market was hanging by a 'thread' or was 'troubling', as the broader market was not playing along.  To us, this isn't some conspiracy that the market is going to was just boring as we all probably had a rush going into the week off the momentum runners that ran into Mondays action.  Luckily, we had AVNR for a few days to keep us sane ..or is it insane if we're playing these?.  By end of day Friday, we had the large caps confirming the trend, we had the Nasdaq showing support and moving higher on bullish earnings all over the place.  Do we think the bearish mood on small caps seen mid-week will continue?....NO!....if the earning keep surprising!   It's just a matter of time before small-micro caps play along in the bullish trend.   See yesterday note with charts.  Also, S&P Equity research reasserted late last week that mid cap asset class is where investors should stay focused in '07 , going against the grain of Wall street by saying this class will out perform the large caps.   This week as seen in our earnings dates calendar, small caps earnings will start to flood the market and we will most likely concentrate on new names going forward or looking to recycle names off reports. A few small cap stocks came out with excellent earnings last week. These include...

SYNL, its Q1 profit increased to 56c, a fivefold increase yoy and sales climbed to 44.4mln. The report was also sequentially better which shows growth not only year over year, but Q after Q which we like to see.  We didn't feel SYNL was the type of stock to chase pre market, especially as it hit $37.  We simply thought we might get some selling early from those anticipating excellent earnings and holding through, we thought we could get it cheaper.  The stock never saw those premkt highs Friday.  The stock bounced off the recent high, filling the gap and we bought back a position.  Still under a million shares traded, but we definitely like the volume bar it put up Friday and think this could start to trade a little differently than it did in the past 6 months.

ATR, manufacturer of dispensing systems for personal care, cosmetics, food and beverage put out a nice report as well last week that we covered Thursday. A nice spike at the open to $77 before closing up at $75.12. 86 EPS/89 RS #'s.

DXPE, a combo of a favourable chart and the good ole pre-earnings walk up played a role in its 9% action Friday. We are trading this and will let loose our positions before earnings on the 24th.

Steels/speciality Alloy manufactures, we are still holding SCHN.  Other stocks in these groups of interest to trade are RS and TONS.  TONS is for the bungee jumping aficionados.  USAP and its steel-alloy group have a nice chart after a recent pullback.  If the group has a breakout, we'd look for USAP again.

Solars, volume has declined daily on almost of the players. The short squeeze, momo run is over for now.  We have no reason to test the calm waters.  We'll be there when the waters get infested again.       We are also away from the cheap mining plays here as we head into earnings for the smaller names.

Shipping stocks like DRYS have been doing well lately, ISH remains a play too look at.  Very small float here. RCCC, FCSX, ROS, MFW, GLDN, USAT, TNH , some names up there on the watch-trading list going into the week,  but we'd expect new earning names to take the thunder away from the more mature plays in the coming week or maybe a biotech feverish stock or two to be the big plays.



It just happens that writing a Journal keeps us in line to our methodology's of trading. We all need reminders. It is very easy to stray from your niche or your usual might see a headline or hear a tip from another or two that makes you want to jump in and see what all the ruckus is about.  At the end all that usually does is tie up cash for most and not allow one to get back into a niche play as soon as they would like or at all. This brings us to what we've been prepping ourselves for and hopefully you.   Simply... that is having cash on hand to chase the DJIM niche, earning plays for opening day(s) and not be stuck in laggards that have 'watching paint dry' action.  So far the action is hardly disappointing as we've hit another streak this month with SYNL KRSL TRCR..back to back to back.  One more today and we'll be the Red Sox from the other day!. This is prime example of having money on hand to be able to go hard after a few selective plays,  especially when all the stars line up and you having stellar earning and/or chart to go with it and momentum flow.  Our full attention has been on these 3 stocks but now or even yesterday, one should never forget to do what is right!.   That is to take profits, some or all depending on the days, speed of the play.  All that means is a TRCR was still lased up at the close, while a SYNL KRSL have gone up as much as 5 and 3 dollars from our alerts in a few days. So, yes we have been dwindling down our positions in SYNL, KRSL in a orderly manner.  Early this month, we were riding the JSDA,TSL,UXG etc train.  Our stop came and we got off expecting new plays to emerge.  We wave goodbye and say see ya' later. This week we have new plays and need to say see ya' later sooner than later after the gains produced by them.   Simply, as good as having money ready for EPS season, it is vital you free up cash during earning season to go after the next batch of plays or just one dazzling play.   We are just getting started with small-micro cap announcements, so don't forget the first train is the one you want to be on for the best profits.  The first leg is usually the fastest and most profitable!.  You can catch a connecting train later and have the same seat as before by recycling a play.  "TURNOVER", is the key now.  Use a play, but don't abuse it.  This could mean if we get $14, give or take a few dimes from our first buys AH $11.40's  Monday on TRCR...we would be following the same methodology described above....

A few things...

DXPE and its results.....very tough comps to beat for it this Q. Still it did it,  but probably not enough to get the crowd wiled up. We will watch the reaction and go from there.

RVBD, we might prefer this over DXPE, $33's might have some congestion so we will see how it plays it out.($32now). We will play accordingly if we see it has potential to smash that level or if it does.

SILC, we said this might be number 3 after DXPE,USAP for a pre-earnings run and it didn't disappoint yesterday breaking out to 24.70's. We traded the move and now wait for its call this morning to maybe get in again.

TRT, a few can't get over this put it up on watch the other night and it produced a nice return yesterday for some here (10%). At this point, we prefer to wait on there sneaky mid day possible earning release to possibly play.

MFW GLDN BW RCCC USAT TNH MTOX ATR, maybe a few others round out what we are watching or playing in smaller sizes.




There definitely is a pattern going on.   Big tech stocks delivering good earning and pushing the market up along the way.   It feels good out there, especially for those co's that have delivered optimistic news, earnings related or not.    This is good news for everyone.    When market is in a good mood, it's just much much easier to deal with everything else.    We don't necessarily have to trade THE stock in news such as AMZN or AAPL, but we can take the advantage of the rosiness of this market to tackle other stocks that we are familiar with and in our niche.     There have been tons of small caps releasing earning these days and with the help of the generosity of this market, we can sure capitalize on some good stuff out there.

First of all, you have to make money on a day like today.   What we said this morning was vital to tackle today.  If you aren't, then there's something wrong with your holdings/strategy.    What's a cure?   Dump the laggards and get into the winners.   Yes, it's that easy.    For us, we only fall in love with a stocks action, never the stock itself.   So if a stocks action gives us headache, we cut it and move on.

Earnings play!    We have stressed enough times that a pre earning run is merely a PRE earning run.    Holding through the earning defeats the purpose of playing the pre-earning run.   This is not a complicated concept but a much useful discipline for DJIM traders.   We don't hold into earnings, period. We just play earnings.  There are quite a few earnings related plays today so we'll go over some of them...This morning we gave our strategy to a few names we'd closely monitor for a potential play...

DXPE, earning came out last night and stocks action delivered today.    What may cause this is the possible fact that the stock did NOT have a typical pre-earning run-up prior to the announcement.  It just had a fews days sandwiched between a so-so day.  The stock price pretty much sat in a flat line since the last earning report and this time it just jumped much like last time.   Like we said before, seasonality factor favours DXPE, BTJ kind of stocks going into the summer.    The action today only further confirms our thesis and we bot some during today's run-up. Our approach was to watch tape, the market reaction after the bell and "go from there".  Soon, it was clear the crowd, the market wanted a piece of DXPE.

RVBD,  "We will play accordingly if we see it has potential to smash that level or if it does". Well as it happened, low $33 area was attacked and we entered into this play. We are not chartists, but one look at the chart today showed and area of tops from Dec to March. Our 'charts for dummies', handbook said if it takes this level, we'd like to play it. The factor of a hot tech market made RVBD an easy choice today.

BTJ, much like DXPE, this one did very well off the earning.   Mood is very positive for this sector and we have no reason to doubt that this one can run much further.     Float is small with this one and it doesn't look like it'll give up its spot on IBD100 list anytime soon. 

What did these 3 have that SILC didn't?. A mixture of sequential growth and good guidance, something SILC didn't.  If reading numbers isn't your game, let the market make the deciding factor for you before you enter a trade. want to be where there is a influx of money going in..not going out. The easiest way to do so is WAIT!.  Also, it is not just about reading the headline numbers.  If that was the case we'd all be buying EML today!

SCHN, oh how we like this steel earning addition to DJIM. Closed up another 6% higher. This is up from $45 when first intro to a high of $53.50ish today.

IDSA, this is and old friend for us that came out with results mid day.    The stock caught on fire b/c of the recent surge in scrap metal stocks and whole sector in general.   What got us more intriguing is the fact that IDSA's IBD number 90 90, prior to the report, is good enough to get on the IBD100 list.   Be caution though, this one is volatile and can turn on a dime.    We do, like the risk/reward of this one at this point given the rosiness of the sector, the market in general and the potential IBD fever attached to it.

PAE, this one was profiled in briefing yesterday but we mentioned it 8 trading days ago b/c of its earning, plus a recent alert on a move on $2.   All we can say it is a beautiful thing to sell our stocks into briefing profiles that get new bait for our already discovered fish!.  This one has gone up nearly 50% ( 1.70 to 2.50 close today) since our Journal on it but you'd hardly notice it b/c of its cheap price and with what's going on with all the other action. " Usually a stock turning the corner on profitability gets some attention sooner than later.  It actually got into IBD's top earning announcements column and might get a look Monday or simply crawl slowly upwards from here.   It can be a complete bore or its numbers and float and price will get some cash into.." DJIM 

MTOX ROS keep on ticking best. Some others we were trading today in smaller sizes and/or closely watching, MFW RCCC CYNO BW(eps in am).


Big Point Gainers...

Yes, the good earning plays are being rewarded with big points lately.   It seems you only have to beat just enough and raise the guidance(not necessarily required) just enough to be rewarded a big push on your earning day.    We love it, and this kind of phenomenon brings back memories of the golden days.    Alright,  so the strategy out there is to catch some of these big gainers once it's confirmed that people "like" their report.     How can you tell?    We figured if by 10 a.m.the stock is still holding up well, we'd be start looking for entry point there.   This may very well mean that we have missed the "best" entry price of the day, but it does ensure us that any entry price we enter would give us that much more probability that we can come out on top.   Why?   The big point gainer theory!    Of course, you still have to trade those stocks with that kind of potential.    If one of the earning plays did not give you a huge run-up, perhaps trying a few of them would work out better.    Keep in mind, we are playing the earnings play here, and these aren't the phase 3 stocks or other type of stories where the stories may only last as long as the time to chew down a snicker bar.     With a earning play, even if you get in at high on earing day, there's still a very high probability that stock continues higher throughout the following days if not weeks..if the market holds up, of course.

Bottom line, trading earnings play (after the earning announcement) is a rather conservative yet highly effective method to trade.   It can also be highly profitable if you trade mostly small caps like we do.    Four times a year, with each earning season lasting a month or two, this would be enough to make it a full time job.  With so many opportunities so far the past week, it just proves in our minds there is no reason to hold through and into the earnings call.  We have great expectations of the DXPE, SYNL, BW, BTJ's to announce great reports after trading them for months , if not already years....But this does not mean we want or will sleep with them the night before they give out their numbers/ guidance.  We practise, 'safe trade' around here, you might say on earning day.

Some plays today...

ALGN VDSI,  we group these two because they both shot up off their respective earning reports.    Volume was great for both and both pretty much spent most of their days flat lining until later on.    We alerted these earlier today and we liked the way they closed.   It wouldn't surprise us that they get some good follow through tomorrow and possibly into next week for some nice gains.

SVVS SSYS WST, these ones are much like the ones above and acted well off their earning reports.    We had to buy these because you never know which one of these will become a great runner.    What we do is keep a close eye on the strength of each one and add/reduce according to their action.    Basically, even for a small size, we just can't afford not to play them.  At todays pace , plus with the usual suspects rocking SYNL DXPE BTJ, we don't have time to do much if any DD on these new names.  We are trading the #'s and action.  We consider them secondary plays at this time and will choose the best in the days ahead to go forward with.

BTJ DXPE, wow these two had great follow through today and especially BTJ.    This is essentially pure momentum at work and we won't argue nor mess with them.

SYNL TRCR,  both notched a new closing high and in the case of SYNL, momentum seems to be really high and we are curious to see how high it goes before it stalls.  The last 4 are definitely the primary earning plays here.

PAE, wow we didn't even think this could be such a huge gainer(% wise) after we alerted it days back.   Of course, Briefing helped our cause but nonetheless the company PR machine is at work. Today, a deal with Sony Entertainment got the name out further. This is just getting too impressive and we'll keep trading it even after selling a chunk off this week.

IDSA,  it might be too cute to think that this one can get onto the IBD100 list with just 2 days left.   Well, technically, it's still possible given the float of the stock and volatile nature of this beast.    What we like about this one is the fact that the sector it belongs in is very hot and coupled with the general rosiness of this market, it's just not unnatural to run this one higher.   It does have good enough IBD number to get into the top 50 at least and we feel it's just a matter of time before it gets added to IBD100 list, provided that it can consolidate around this level.


DJIM #18 2007

NUMBERS, NUMBERS...there's the ECO. which include numbers of the crumbling USD, the poor GDP# number released Friday, the poor housing #'s and then there are the EPS numbers which are fueling the market with money that does not want to be left out of a bullish party.  Which numbers are we concerned about?.   The answer is easy as hot money keeps flooding the market, everyone is chasing the EPS numbers of the giants and now the more speculative, smaller caps instead of worrying about all the eco numbers and what they could be pointing to.  If we had millions, billions maybe we'd be concerned about what the eco numbers are pointing to and that includes slower growth/EPS numbers in Q2 and beyond, instead our goal as always is to capitalize on what we are given today, tomorrow and taking advantage of it fully. Go hard or go home is the premise here recently. You will not need to go hard or stress later in the year, instead you might go on a extended vacation if you are capitalizing on this bull run we are experiencing.  Simply, companies which are producing results, giving a good outlook are being rewarded big time. We can't ask for anything more as this is DJIM's niche!...So enough of the banter, lets get the nitty and gritty and that is the stocks we have our eyes and hands on..

IDSA, we discussed the possibilities of this beast Wednesday night and Thursday we all had a chance to accumulate in the $12's. We are patient and wanted IDSA to maintain some integrity by not finishing the day over $15 and then be prone to a sell off Monday if it was included in IBD so soon.  When we started buying Thursday, all we had hoped for was a decent finish in the $14's come Friday.  IDSA did turn out to be fun, even if an hour or two before we thought on Friday and made a couple of tries at and over $15.  We anticipated a roadblock of sorts at 15, it wasn't major but you have to understand many were happy to get out here knowing many are anticipating this level.  We did some selling in this area as well, 20%+ in a few days was sufficient for now.  Don't forget many got in even lower Wednesday on the results and were willing to sell around $15 for even larger gains.  We are glad to buy any dips and now look forward to IDSA having 5 full days of trading to rock $15 and beyond. The best it could have done Friday was finish in the $15's, but with a week to do some damage we think it has a better chance to go into the high teens in a somewhat orderly manner.

TO, easy symbol, brutal name Tech/ Ops Sevcon..hey but with a 2.2mln float and nice earning you could call yourself whatever you want!. This one has a string of EPS somewhat similar to TRCR with the last being in the mid-to high teens.  It also just put in it's first 10 mln revenue Q like TRCR. There is also 15% institution ownership with a few names we are familiar amongst the holders. This gives this unknown company some respectability. We feel with fast money back in the market chasing an IDSA or two, a play like TO should get some interest in the week ahead. You don't if you don't try!

CMI, guess we'll look at this again but after giving a ride from low $90's to $107 off the opening bell, you'd have to think you are not going to match that any time soon.  So why bother going back right away!. The co' beat expectations and gave a rosy outlook.  That was the spark to ignite what we thought would be a nice short covering in the morning.  As we noted in the forum that morning...more goes into finding a play than the headline numbers in many cases.  It would be too easy if all companies with excellent numbers did the same thing.  CMI had a big run recently due to M&A rumors, these rumors evaporate most of the time and this idea brings in shorts expecting the stock to come back to reality.   Nothing like a kick ass report to get them covering in a hurry.  This was the idea behind the trade for a early morning move.  Anyways this was exciting and you could put this one with the MFW's huge day recently when we gave out a play with something like 20-40k volume before it exploded to record volume and big quick gains.  If you're not pocketing these types of gifts and moving on or recognizing them as an opportunity to jump in as soon as huge momo comes in.... something is wrong.  Also, if you're still scared to buy expensive stocks get over it.  These expensive stocks present incredible opportunities.

VSEA, a semi beat by 3c and guided higher. Not big fans of Semis here for the longest time, but with market the way it is we need to diversify some and see what the bigger names are capable of.  Besides, this one was a nice chart heading into earnings and this weekend moved to #4 on IBD. A few firms already reit it a buy and boosted price tgts.. We bot late, low 69's.

MFW, a familiar name we bot back Friday. It kinda pissed as off as we only had a few shares and were ready to add for days $60-62 and now had to deal with a sipke at the open to as high as $68. least we know the Perelman money was smarter than us by picking up $12mln at $60. We like this kind of news and bot mid day off the pullback.

TRCR , quite the nice run in 4 days. We said we'd be looking to sell some if it reached the 14 area. Friday it was 3 plus points over our alert on it and we booked some profits into the weekend.  Nothing wrong here, just the right thing to do. We'll be back.

SYNL ,what can we say about the last 6 trading days, except its a pretty thing. We're all probably enjoying this move.

DXPE, was a casualty Friday but you don't need to be one.  Past knowledge of DXPE volatility puts this move into perspective. It's nothing but profit taking off a 8 point move. One way you might avoid more damage than you need to is set a mental stop in the area of the previous days long stick around that days low and or open. This is not a hard rule but if you had this point in your head it might have saved you a few points Friday. For us as full time traders it is of course easier to exit, if you can't deal with these types moves it is best you stay away...or you just accept them if you like the story and stick with it through the bumps in the road.

A few names for the pillow are acting well, past and present....VE hit 83, HTC near $24, CPY exploded Friday to 60's. These stocks have never seen RED, as in lower than our initial DJIM buy in's ( VE-$68,HTC-$17, CPY-$43) besides returning 20%-40% profits in months.   You can't beat that for a safe crawler. We try to give a bit of everything to satisfy all tastes.

One discussed in the forum early this week kept going creeping up and that is TWIN. ...... Remember SYNL EML were these pillow stocks when first intro'd here.  We can't discuss these much as they trade so thinly day after day, but for those of you with a longer term view on some of your positions these have been or are great stocks so far for under the pillow. An extra screener for these types is best to keep track and visit.  ABM, has pulled off a NCH and a nice weekly chart as well.


Small Caps...

The small caps definitely outperformed the rest of the market today.    Perhaps, fittingly, the lagging action finally moved to our neck of the neighbourhood.    RUT index was the strongest among all the indices and it shows in majority of stocks on our play list.   In fact, everything seemed to be green today all across the board.  Our hunch that the NASD/small cap play catch up in last nights Journal was clear early today with the NASD climbing to almost 30+ and DJIM small caps in tow.   If Dow hadn't reversed intraday, we are sure that some of the bigger stuff of our small cap world would've closed much better.   There was some excellent action in MA CROX early..oh well, such is life, we can't always wish for a perfect scenario and we'll just have to take today as an overall good day.

Onto some plays here...

NGA, now that this one made the IBD list, why is it still going up?    Why not?  Again, before the split announcement, we were much more bullish on the potential of this play.   The split, now come think of it, may just add an unwanted twist to an otherwise great story/play.   From the look of it today, momentum is still there and the stock notched a new high off very good volume.  This is what we wanted, a NCH.  How do we approach this one now?   Much like what we did with GROW back then when we rode it from $30 to $70(pre split), we play till the music stops.     We'd be watching this 9 ema religiously and the higher NGA trades, the more cautious we'd get and smaller the size we'd trade on.  There was no monkey business and the stock carried on without the usual IBD shenanigans. To us this was a good sign.    The easiest of the easy money, however, in our opinion, was made from $10 to $15.   That run-up had the great probability with limited downside and lots of liquidity.   So folks, take this one as a good lesson if you hadn't made much off this one.    A play like this will come again, sooner or later.

FWLT 4%, triple digit club, enough said!   We cashed out some around $100 and will see if this one can take out the psychological level and move into a new trading territory.    The story is definitely not over by any means and we feel this one may last a long while on our play list.

NTLS 2.2% RCCC 3.4% CUB 1.6% AFAM 4%, these three keep on rocking and they are up like most other small caps.   We've been very happy with these quite runners so far and we aren't doing much with them unless they show sign of stalling.

SPAR 6% FRPT 5%, these two made a b/o today and we are treating them as a pair trade that moves together.   We were adding/ trading some today but are keeping our time frame short

USU, even though this one trades heavy, we like the way it closed today and we think its business is independent of the overall market sentiment.

DXPE, "load, weekend alert, gap, dump",  oops, did we just give out the secret of a certain trading guru? lol. SYNL and now DXPE back to back.  In fact, we'd like this move much much more without its status being "stock of the week" freebie.   Given the statistical result of past "stocks of the week", we'd be a bit more cautious if still thinking about chasing the move.

Even TRT answered our question from last bounced...imagine if didn't on a day/ set up like todays!.  We'll see if it gets to highs before considering it again for more than a quick flip opportunity.



Solar Burn...

What is really funny about this market is that while a couple of big names that kept on going down every day, we have some names that are going the total opposite direction, which is up.   The Citi news may have very well kick started this week, but all the focus now is on Cisco's earning tomorrow night.  As oil price keeps going higher, so too are the names from solar sector.   This is really the kind of market where you are either in a lot of pain or a lot of joy.    What makes it tough though, however, is to maintain a balanced portfolio where you try to speculate on which sectors would move next.   As we have witnessed, many of the Asian names have been under pressure the last few days while some of the more expensive names on our watchlist  kept us in the game.       

First, the good ones...

FSLR/SPWR/GOOG/MA/BIDU/AAPL/RIMM,  basically, had we been trading nothing but the expensive tickers ($100+), we literally would've been making a killing in this market.    These aren't the names we are unfamiliar with.   In fact, pretty much all of these names are positions in our portfolio at one time or another.    You can say that these are some of the obvious leaders in the market and those are the ones we ought to be owning if we believe this market is going higher.   The point it, we gotta have some of these names in our portfolio.   We may not afford all of them with big sizes but these are the ones that are carrying this market higher.

Solars, JASO TSL SPWR FSLR ASTI, every time dollar gets dumped, and oil gets bid up, and then these guys zoom another 10% it seems.    Some of these names are releasing earnings next few days so we'd have a pretty good picture how traders would react to their report given the current valuation.

AIXG, a somewhat new name to these parts is this German ADR semiconductor/equipment maker bought up early in the morning after earning. It's 9mth eps.17c vs. (0.03), while revenues jumped nearly 50%.  This co' is thriving on the demand for LED units which is in a strong secular growth mode.  The order intake Q# and the resulting backlog was very good here.  In the last 3 Q it's order intake has gone from 40 to 50 to 70mln euros resulting the co' largest ever order backlog.   This stock trades overseas as well and takes it's open gap cue from its action over there.

GHM/DXPE, these two are couple of the recent earning plays that are being bid up quietly.   We definitely don't want to ignore these as they can creep 10% on a weekly basis.

Now the nervous ones...

STV/LFT/CISG/GA,  all these have one thing in common and they are recent Chinese IPOs.    Aren't we supposed to be up 25% by now by holding these?   Right now, we are as puzzled as many others as to why all of these names aren't getting any momentum to the upside.    It feels like in  20 more trading day, there won't be anything left in these stocks;).     At this point, we simply have to play the statistics and probability game.    Any of these would be considered longer term plays and we just have to play that way accordingly.    The quiet period is going to end soon enough for some of these names and earnings are coming up as well.    We are looking forward to those events as they can be the kind of positive catalyst that can drive these stocks.    The bottom line, these plays are still at the beginning.

Simply, you cannot hold one or a few of these IPO's, 'nervous ones' without balancing out your book by trading/ holding the 'good ones'.  That is missed opportunities day after day.