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Entries in LDK (15)


It would've been a lot easier...

if all we had to is to check the final box score of the market action today.    Oh yes, it's just another logical follow through of Friday's decline.....  However, today's action is just anything but calm!!.    The key of today's action is the reversal of all of the intraday gain.    Despite the fact that both indices did not close near the low, it is the shear volatility that gave many traders that unsettling feeling, it is something we all need to care about.   It's whacky out there and seemingly many are following the major indexes, even the micro/small caps start to follow immediately,  which is making this out of whack in some respects.  Sure, this is summer trading but we are still few days before July kicks in.    What it means that it is going to be another long summer for traders unless earnings gives us a jolt!    We also want to point out that both Dow and Naz are getting very close to the 50 ema and that is something some of us may need to keep it in our mind for.

As traders, we definitely liked the way the day started but do not like the way the market finished or what transpired mid day..    Sure, many stocks on our watchlist still ended up in green territory but many of them are quite a way off their intraday top.    Here are some interesting ones...

LPHI, if we all knew what this one was capable of, we'd all have parked lots of cash into this one when we first noticed it.    This one pulled another impressive finish today and at this point we are not even speculating how much higher it can go.    One thing for sure though, is that this one is super extended and any long trade here requires super caution to execute.   We'd really prefer a pullback from this one and we'd just have to wait and find out when it will happen.

FSLR/JASO/LDK,  in terms of solar plays, it's getting more obvious that these three are the leaders and ones we'd be looking to play to this time around.   And out of these three, the best one is still FSLR and there's no sign of its slowing down this original DJIM solar play.    These are niche plays that people tend to trade...irrespective of the index movement.

TNH, lately, it seems this is really the only chemical co. that mattered in the world of stock trading.    We really liked its action today and especially its finish.    We do want to point out that this one can be very volatile when it's having a bad day.

CMED, maybe we just need to give this one some more time and some more room before it's done digesting its recent move.    We will be keeping our eyes closely on this one as the breakout could literally come any time. 


so it comes at the middle of the week...

Of course, we are referring to the strong action this market has given us today.    What started as a shaky morning turned to a very strong and positive finish in the afternoon.   We are very impressed and we like the action market exhibited today.     At one point in the morning, the breadth on our watchlist was so terrible that we only found a few greens with next to no volume.    Does this mean that the recent slide of the indices is halted?   At this point, we aren't absolutely sure but we think today's action is one step toward the right direction.    Folks, this is summer trading so we shouldn't look too far beyond what's immediately in front of us.   Still, the nerves quieted down some.  Not so much edge of the seat about to fall over by the close today feeling.  Here's a hint to the market, you've seen it mentioned plenty around here.  PAULSON.  This is one name the big boys want to speak out load.  He's the insurance policy for the market.  Today was no different as he took it from red to green.  Others will tell you otherwise for today's buying.  If you believe there are higher forces controlling the fate of this market, well then you should pay attention when he speaks.  The timing is always impeccable, over and over again.

Here are some notable plays to keep close eye on...

LPHI/TNH, ok lets just get the negatives out of the way first.   Isn't it funny that when market is having a good day while these two get hammered badly?    Well, didn't we see it coming from a mile away? lol    As we have noted in recent journal and even in last night, we feel these two may get sold off imminently due to their very extended action.   We hope you did what we said and kept the stops tight.    Once the stop hits, out it goes.   There's really no point to wait for a bounce for a better exit point.    In terms of getting back in, we feel that the most recent phase of run up may be over for these two and we'll have to see how they consolidate the next few days to determine where we may get back in. There is no hurry. If a stock deserves higher prices, it will show it to you soon enough. Jumping in the first sign of weakness is not our game.  It's only an excuse for missing TNH from something like the 60-70's or so here or when LPHI was alerted almost 100% lower than a month ago.  If you snoozed, don't try to pick up the pieces later in the game at first sign of weakness.   It's like going for sloppy seconds, let it simmer for a bit before proceeding.  It will tell you if you should.

KMGB, unlike the two above, this one has not had the kind of monster run-up and it ran into consolidation recently.   We like the action today and think that it may resume its upward action and challenge its old high.

RCCC GTLS, put in a nice day all around.

DDUP/SCOR, today's definitely an IPO's day and these three all traded really well since their opening price.   We are keeping them on our active trading list to trade on any kind of meaningful follow through.

JASO, solar plays seems to taking turns to shine and this one is taking its turn today.    Although we like its action but we are only limiting our action to intraday trading.   This one is prone to quick sell offs so we constantly keep that on the back of our minds.

LXU LDK, these two had a late day surge and we are going to be watching it closely tomorrow morning to see if there's any potential for breakout action.

AAON SPEC are past DJIM entires that should be included in a trading watch list now.


here comes the earning season...

Perhaps we just forgot how much fun it is to trade during the earning season the last few weeks.    Good thing is, earning season is almost upon us and in fact, we even got a taste of what may be another opportunistic season tonight.    RIMM set it off tonight with a very strong report and the AH action more or less confirmed people's belief.     This is something all of us have been looking forward to for a while now.     Well, enjoy the weather and the up coming holiday because we need to buckle up right after that for some potentially intense trading afterwards.

Today's the Fed day!    Did most people even set this event on their calendar?    We certainly did not!  We felt the action today is more or less in line with what's been happening past few days, Fed meeting or not.     In terms of individual action, we have to conclude that it's a productive and positive day for the most part.    Here are some notables from today...

PENX, this chemical co. came out with a very strong report in the morning and we felt the report is strong enough to warrant our attention.   We bought a starter in the early going and added as it strengthened.     Given the volume and attention it received today, it's very likely that this one is being put in play by many traders.    Just like KMGB, LPHI in the past, we are going to be chasing PENX aggressively on strength.

LDK, ok, the closing price may be a little fishy but this one did stay relatively strong for the most part.   We added some during the day and will look to trade it higher as long as the solar sector is still in favour.

TBSI, this one definitely is trading a lot better the past week and two compare to the time when we started trading it first back in mid May.   It notched a new high today and we added a little to go along with it.

SNHY, this play has been consolidating for last while.   It broke out today and stayed strong till the end.   We are not sure if this breakout can generate a nice follow through but we are willing to bet that it can.   


..How high can they go?

The better question might be... is how high can you go with some these solar stocks?   Remember the trip down can get pretty trippy when you are dealing with momentum stocks that have powered up as much as some of these have lately.  Still, a new twist to these big plays is that a few of them produced contracts today to help push them. FSLR got the ball rolling announcing deals worth around 1.3 billion with renewable energy co's out of Europe and TSL followed up with more deals. So are these deals enough to push these even higher or do they just tap the recent run?. Time will tell, but the best thing is to have these on a tight other words trade them, get in and get out with the tide.  Another positive for FSLR and JASO today was the intervention by a few firms to raise price targets.  A RJ up to $48 really got JASO clicking later in the day.  Are these firms late to the party or are they going to push these higher?.   Lots of questions, lots of momentum and even some secondary solar plays are putting up charts at the close that can't be ignored.  LDK, HOKU are two examples of NCH's, nice charts that can't be overlooked even if they are solar powered.  It's really up to the individual on some of these as to your comfort level. If you've been following them daily off the Journal since the 25th of June, you likely took some of the table today or plan to tomorrow into any morning strength or maybe not and you'll keep riding the momo for as long as it lasts. Just be on guard is all we can say on some of the flying solars.  Hopefully, the contracts and firms getting involved further at these lofty heights is enough for this to continue.  Lets hope for more contracts and more firms upping the estimates/targets. These stocks are not going away in the long run, they came back from the early part of the year when we were trading them hard and now is just another opportunity to capitalize. There will be others down the road if this detours any time soon.

Now..back on planet earth this Monday. We didn't wake to a slew of M & A deals, but you have appreciate the huge buybacks today by JNJ/COP.  Besides, earnings/ M&A action in 07', buybacks have a been an important catalyst as well.  If the firms are buying back at these prices, well then the investor asks why shouldn't I?. It also didn't hurt a 20% premium was put on the head of FDX by a weekend publication.

CMI, this is the 2nd time we hit it nicely off an alert in the past of months. We liked how the stars were aligning with a breakout on the heels of a Bear Stearns upgrade. What you can't ignore is a 10 point move and that it is best to take profits along the way. A steady move such as this allows for entry almost at any point to then take a few points off.  If what you had hoped for in a few days happens within hours...all you could do is take profits somewhere within todays price range and look to re-enter another time.

SPAN, this was highlighted a few weeks back in DJIM #26 as a potential play from around $24. Today it tacked on another 5% to a NCH at $30.60. Buying the pullbacks has been a profitable trade in this one. Maybe we'll get another one later this month.

PENX, TBSI, CUB, DDUP ..usual suspects had nice days again.

And if there is ever any reminding needed of why we trade BTJ the way we do (this sort of came up recently on forum)....well, today's action is the simple reason why.  This is also they type of action some of the solars are capable of sooner or later.


..How about...??

..we just put this day away and watch the All-Star game or something?.  Honestly..despite what looks like a terrible day on paper..NASD down 30, DJIA almost 150, it all seemed without real conviction on the sellers side.  What transpired today was an overloaded bag of expectation for Bernanke to give this market a lift.  You've heard us talk of Paulson repeatedly coming to the rescue of the market... go back recently here on the Journal and see how it coincided with the recent market rally......when he speaks, we go up and this is somewhat expected of Bernanke speak..unfortunately.  Those in the market loop knew Beranke wasn't going to let any tricks out of the bag was what they call an 'academic' speech.  Somehow without him spilling the beans the market used it as an excuse to turn back to the HD guidance and somewhat unravel the market later in the day. But, seriously how much unravelling is there to do when the market is extended as it was heading into today's trading?.  Won't take much!...NASD up 5 straight days, the DJIA/SPX near resistance points.  Today was a distribution day no doubt and it was simply time we eased on the accumulation of stocks.  AA was never the end all of earnings reports, it's just tee-off time in our books for another season....but as we say around here... it's earnings season 12 months a year at DJIM, as the likes of PENX never seem to put a close to an earnings Q...

What were the notables on this distribution day?. You can't expect many as distribution doesn't play favorites and usually goes after biggest gainers, it is no surprise most of the closely followed here closed in the red...A few stood out.  Despite the early sell off gap in the Solars at the open, a couple of names showed vigor as any sell off in the markets taking them down intraday was shrugged off constantly....

LDK, noted this one off the chart last night.  It definitely trades choppy, but there was interest throughout the day as every dip was being bought up.  All you have to do is look at the last dip as the market slipped deeper into the red late and the recovery it made closing back near the the day highs at $37.

TSL, whenever a momo stock can make an intraday bounce of 6 pts, you have to give it kudos for its days action.  So, we'll give it such for today.  FLSR might have a needed a rest , don't you think after yesterday?.  A downgrade didn't help but a 4 point intraday trading range is nothing cry over.  You really have to take a 4+% slide into context here and with any momo stock trading at high prices.   It comes with the territory.

TBSI, this is where experience and an understanding DJIM stocks came into favor today.  Don't remember exactly at what price we started covering TBSI at DJIM,  but one thing you might have seen and noted is the dips this stock is capable of.   If you've held it or just watched, you know a dip has been an opportunity to re-enter this stock.'s dip was exaggerated but it only warrants more of your attention and action.  What happened today at the open?. They bought a vessel for 29mln.  Siince when is that a bad thing?.   Some saw it as a reason to dump, a flood ensued and what was a damn extended stock as we have noted recently...fell from 33 to 27's.  If all you wanted to do was flip, our alert probably gave you a fast flip as it moved to 31.50.  We traded some and held some of what we picked up in the 28's and are fine with it at the close as it held above 9ema.

Speaking of 9ema...well ...we don't really in this case as it's speculative junk, but you might want to give LOCM a look very soon for a possible trade. Again, remember we are not in for a relationship on these types as when we alerted and watched it go to $13+ the next day recently.

CCF, you probably remember this one from an alert play in January that turned into a little winner. At that time, it reported something like .62 cents to get our attention. Well, this time it reported .68 AHours, if you forget the split it did for a second.   In other words, this Q is better EPS and Revenue than what got our interest 2 quarters ago.  The question is who wants to get involved tomorrow in a EPS winner after a day like this and especially one stock that is not very liquid.  We`ll see tomorrow if it can attract interest, liquidity most importantly of all.  We don`t want to be stuck with nice size lots with no one to sell it to at the beginning of earnings season in the days to come....might as well stuff a fat ceramic pig instead...


DJIM #29  2007

The easiest thing to do would be to speak of the big market move last week, but we won't do that and instead look forward to the week ahead. Hopefully, we steered you in the right direction in our Journals the past while and you have stayed invested heavily in the market and our plays as they were the beneficiaries as much as anything else last week. Just looking at the list from DIM #28...DRYS TBSI LPHI AZZ FWLT PENX DDUP SCOR FSLR TSL LDK JASO and you see who played with enthusiasm.  If you need still need to grasp the significance of last weeks action, just look at the weekend charts/comments.  Funniest quote so far heard though, is ..."meanwhile while the media is enjoying their victory lap, many investors are less than enthusiastic about the moves in their accounts at the end of the week....they didn't see the same huge gains in their accounts".  Name the the tout and win a free month at DJIMstocks...NAH, that wouldn't work as too many of you are quite familiar with this singer.  Sounds like sour grapes for some reason, if you ask us!.   At this point in the game, we have to look for some potential stalled action, fortunately we have earnings as the base of this DJIMstocks and it should not stop us from going forward as earnings will pick up this week and new picks will start to show their colors.  We already had some nice reports from CCF, GBX, SCHN  indicating a diverse crop of good reports possibly to follow. Use our Earnings Dates link to see some notables reporting.  Again, we ask for members to post within that link any earning dates for DJIM stocks past and present plays you might come across and we will edit them into a list for all to keep track of this Q.  Going forward, we're basically keeping to the same list as last weekend of stocks we are concentrating on, plus a few new ones that appear all over DJIM last week.  Take into consideration some stalling action in the market realistically should come to some of our names as well.  When that happens we wait and see if the stock sets up again for us to enter a buy in. Examples of this are PENX and DDUP late Friday. LPHI was another were patience is rewarded as it put in a 5pt move after we moved in again.  There is not much to add to individual stocks that was not already said last week, nothing has changed really in our thinking towards those plays  A few other breakouts of past DJIM stocks that we have not signalled out but have been mentioned in our forum such as CMED, SPEC should also be included in any watchlist. The most important thing right now is probably to start freeing up some cash if you are heavily invested to use on new plays that will emerge.  It is quite hard now as everything seems to be running and gunning out there, but it is something you might start doing this week.


..can't we all just get along?

...Can't we just use the late afternoon pre 4pm Journal edition and not the 4:01pm GOOG edition.  What was an impressive day with earnings from many giving the hyper bulls more ammo turned quickly sour with GOOG's results.  Maybe if GOOG gave guidance, we'd not be sitting here guessing what will transpire next.  There is really no point to guess the extent of the damage tonight.  A first step is to see reaction of firms in their notes in the morning and then to see where the spillover might or might not be.  Do all the better than expected reports, including NASD tech get washed out by GOOG's report?. The short fear mongers will definitely give this news a good run for your money.  All we could do is watch what our closely followed do tomorrow and that does not mean just in the first hours of trading...Back to before 4pm with DJIM stocks...

AP, opened strong and then basically flat lined the rest of the day. We couldn't have asked for a better follow through day of about 4%.

DRYS, TBSI etc., the shippers are getting positive morning calls day after day. At these levels we are somewhat fearful of nosebleeds to hold these overnight. The best way to trade these is to watch for more morning calls on the sector and trade them from the open and swing some points out of them.

LDK, last night we noted some of the targets on it and the fact that it was only 7pts off IPO price. Well..make that 10 now as it was the most impressive solar out there. We'd look for a pullback if this missed today even off the NCH as the solars might get some pressure... FSLR is off AH about 5 pts due to an offering of 9.65 mln shares... "We are selling 4,000,000 shares and the selling stockholders named in this prospectus are selling 5,650,000 shares of our common stock. We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling stockholders."  The interesting thing about these offerings is they should be assumed to occur sooner than later.  You don't sign up 1.28 bln in contracts and continue to work out of your single need a double garage and you need to fund it.   Still, one of the shorts fave words is dilution and they will work it.

TXT, we thought this could do a quick move off the open and it that shooting 6-7pts.  Short lived as it might be, it serves some of our subs' trading tactics.  We liked the report and if the market sentiment doesn't turn here, we'll hold on to the starter.  We think it has upside off this report ...Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.69 per share, $0.24 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.45; revenues rose 14.7% year/year to $3.23 bln vs the $3.09 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $1.45-1.55 vs. $1.53 consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $6.35-6.55, up from previous guidance of $6.10-6.30, vs. $6.31 consensus; sees FY07 rev growth of approx 12%, which equates to revs of approx $12.87 bln vs. $12.6 bln consensus. Also announced repurchase and stock split. Primarily aviation, defense play.

Whatever happens tomorrow, trading opportunities will still come forward.  If you looked over VMI, BMI from last nights Journal lead...or a quick in the form of SBEI's to $7, a DDUP move today to almost $29 shows there is and will be plenty of plays depending on your style.....but what we are gearing for and anticipating is micro- small cap earnings to concentrate on outside of the GOOG world noise.

TTPY, also have a look at this recent IPO, next generation radiation oncology equipment that is gaining acceptance in the marketplace.


Roller coaster...

...this is no walk in the park! you're on a ride, it's not a 2 minute ride...this was a 6.5 hr marathon ride on Monday that vibrates and leaves you numb at times for an explanation as to what the hell is going on!.  This market has such a case of anxiety it's quite humurous at times. How else can you explain these intraday bounces of down 180DJIA /40 NASD and then bouncing off lows and then retrace back just when you think we'd finish a nice shade of green?.  Almost and incredibly seemingly off radar to the market was INTC guidance up.  Since when does a tech power house's news of this sort peeter out so fast.  Maybe this market needs a night to think this over and come back and do it right.  Simply, what we mean is this shouldn't be overlooked and forgotten.  Okay..back to the rides....

VMW, this was one ride that was straight up!.  Hopefully, we have overplayed this on the Journal so that that the majority of you were entertained.  We've definitely said enough of the prospects short and long term for this puppy to have it as a primary trading opportunity in this market.  Basically, it didn't go to those lame summer parties that dressed up like rallies and waited till September to kick it in by itself as we proposed.  Now, if we can get the tech sector to build off INTC news, we might just finally get it participating with the group.  At end of day, the daily chart looks like one of those explosive micro cap EPS stocks that we would be all over if it was in the $7's or 17's.  This would definitely get big attention heading into Tuesdays trading if it was a cheapie, unfortunately its in the $70's with a much bigger float.  Still, this chart that was painted might get VMW some new money coming in to play.

LDK, this one has definitely taken over leadership from FSLR as far as we've been concerned.  The deals have added up and the dressing was a deal to pay FLR 1bln to make those deals come to fruition.  We said Friday before the open this might turn into a positive spin and it definitely has as its gone from 52 to a touch of 59's in a couple trading days.  Receiving contracts is great for a potential stock move, we tried to point out it is also very good when you dish out the cash to someone else.  This is overlooked many times and every circumstance is different, but in this sector it gives these up and coming Solars credibility and therefore should be spun into a positive.  This stock seems to roll out some of the best looking set ups week after and after yesterdays NCH it looks to have again.  NCH.

WX,  this one has quieted down since the earnings up and downs and might have another storm up in the very near future, so we are watching closely for an opportunity to re-enter in a sizeable way. 

EJ,  hard one to figure out, it might be just a few sellers that are making it such.   So, when they disappear this might be a smoother one to ride. At this time it clings around its late August break out levels and 9ema that seems to giving it support. Once the trend changes it could be a pretty quick ride up, stay tuned in.

JASO ARTC TBSI  ...fill out the top of the trading list into Tues.



While they were talking up Global Imbalances in Berlin,  we were talking down on the imbalances we were seeing and not liking between DJIM closely watched stocks and the indices action all day.    We've seen days where DJIM stocks don't groove to the beat of the market, only to get it going big time the next day.  This felt different.  Our small cap plays don't always beat to the same drummer as we've experienced time over time, but yesterday was one for the memory books and it is hard to make out.    Maybe, it is because the low volume move in the indices was led by what is the majority of what makes the S&, financial, tech and there is just not too much of these in our play lists.   That's fine,  cause as a group we've cornered the fun stuff over the past while trading the lights out on Shippers, Solars, Chinese, IPO's and we could use a break...right?.. ..Yeah right, as if!...  We simply did not like how a lot of these recent plays we've traded performed, even though most held up and closed green with the market.    We trade on our gut to go with our heads and so we've got a pair of 'em here.  When both of us get that queasy feeling at the same time, we usually act upon on it and yesterday it involved reducing dollars invested overnight.  The same works with stock selection, it's quite easy to get a majority vote as its seldom we don't like the same stock at the same time.    Fortunately, reducing exposure was easy yesterday as it turned out because the majority was done before or around 10am thanks to the biggest holds gapping in the morning.   We always stress our buying and selling methodology, a big part of it is adding to positions we are playing late in the day and potentially selling them into good early action the next day.  This is taketh what they giveth and that is book your profits when they come in the form of a juicy gapper, especially in this volatile market that can evaporate your gains quickly.   We've said that enough here lately.  Our gig is to lead you to the stocks we trade, it is not to tell you how much is too much.  We can't measure ones greed.  Every individual's goal..needs are different and so selling is left to each individual.   Following our strategy, sell early is what we did with VMW and LDK after days of following them closely here and watching them balloon, even LDK since Fridays morning journal and its $52 open.  There was plenty to take off the table in points, especially in VMW after the last 3 days and if you didn' should rethink your strategy if you let these go down on you.   These two now go back on a wait and see for next entry.  Unfortunately they join many recent plays in such state.   The dwindling promise of the group of stocks they join making new set ups and therefore potential new highs makes looking for re-entry into these stocks shortly..unlikely.

So..our queasy feeling yesterday is not one of we are going to implode, but one of caution.   Simply, we saw nothing resembling a good set up for more action to the upside in most of the individual issues.  If you can't make money, what's the point!.  When this is hard fact, we sit back and wait.  This might be only consolidation on their part, but.... if another negative headline hits shortly, we fear these recent plays will need a hard hat because of what they showed us the past few days, especially yesterday.

The beauty of the market is this sentiment on our part can change so quickly, we will not even have time to lace up our runners full of cash to chase....


DJIM #38 2007

The past week started with some promising setups and ended with some lackluster action.   Perhaps, many participants are looking forward to next week as the tone will be definitely set by the end of next week.   As the credit crunch crisis is winding down, many of us are going to be looking at the economic side of things to wage big bets.     There's still over three months left in the year and to many, this is the make it or break it kind of period.     Everyone fared the summer trading a little different, some did ok and some didn't do so well.   Well, all eyes and mindset are focused on the next three months.   Historically, last three months of the year produced good results for us, going back as far as we can remember.  This isn't just a coincidence since same could be said for most market participants.    Companies tend to forecast rosy growth number and institutions tend to mark up their favourite stocks to boost their overall performance in the winter.   That is a powerful combination that can benefit the retail traders immensely.     This is an overall picture that we have to keep in mind.

When you get down to the actual business of picking individual stocks and trade, you still have to stick to the strategy you've seen the most success with.    For us, the same strategy we've been using along with the appropriate level of caution we've been implementing have gotten us through a pretty good year, so far.   Here's a few pointers we like to share with everyone.

1. Stick with winners!  The ones with strong breakout that are hitting 52 week high should be the first ones on our trading list.

2. Trade with volume, the ones that breakout with above average volume are the easier ones to trade and have a better probability of follow through.   We have seen many failed breakouts that looked like results of well orchestrated trap by hedge funds.

3. Cut down on unnecessary speculations, if you aren't sure with the setups or not familiar with the setups, there's no need to play if aren't confident to handle it decisively.

4. No need to speculate on earnings, and unless you are trading on insider info, you just don't have the edge.

5. Cut the loss quickly, as a professional trader, we not only take losses frequently but we also accept it as a fact of trader's life.   

6. Go for the most obvious setups, the most probable setups, that's how you grind through a tough market.  Use the charts of our most recent plays provided to possibly guide you,  read the intro in the section.  This weekend edition provided by Blacktruck consists of BCSI CROX CUB DRYS EJ EXM GLDN GRMN ISRG JASO LDK MR ROS VMW WX

7. Get to know DJIM traders' trading style.    The better you know how we think and how we operate, the better you understand how other professional traders handle a particular situation.    Believe it or not, we know many of our members' trading style really well just by reading their posts from time to time.    Bottom line, trading is much like a sport where you got to know your competitors well, and use it to your advantage.

We've written many journals up until now and pretty much all of the points above were covered in one form or another in our past journals.   It's definitely a good idea to review some topics we've covered in the past to improve your own game.    We can't continuosly update our trading methodology as we attract new members, some research on your part of past journals would greatly help your understanding of what goes on at DJIM.  A search feature is available to get you started.



Growing up and then trading from Canada,  we'd never think we'd see the day the CDN$ reaching parity with US$....guess, they waited for us to be nice and far away for the historic day! back to the US markets we trade, a market we've had to greatly outpace just to deal with the greatly appreciating CDN$ over the last 6-12 mths.   Luckily our goal at DJIM is not to produce paltry returns in the single digits or the teens'. Anyway back to the pitch as the futball fans know it as 3 minutes away from the Chelsea pitch on afternoon game day is quite the experience for any sports nut...or drinker!!

So...yesterday was hardly unexpected after the sprint we've had this week, the valiant effort of many to keep it where it was most of day was good to see.   Somewhat surprising was to see dip buying come in so early at times.    It would be a victory of sorts if we could end week basically unscathed without a serious short correction with the loss of momentum.   Despite the small caps, mid caps indices leading the way down in the afternoon, we were pretty well and running from the morning with our niche of players we had you following and hopefully trading.

MELI, LULU, WX, the trio we gave before the open outperformed anything and everything off the bat.   MELI steamed from the 33's to 38 and considering the force of the move maintained its lofty intraday perch and closed at 37 and change.  After 2 days of action, we know this is on radar now for those into a little action.    LULU and WX sprinted to new highs as well from the open.   If some of you want to trade broken down stocks and patiently wait and wait for the all mighty bounce....the best to you, but as part of the DJIM methodology says... look for the strong,52 week highs, which at more times than not is the easy play!.    These 3 had all these colors after their strong showing we pointed out in a market that was treading water the day before.  Wondering if Cramer put on some Yoga gear to demonstrate his bull-ishness on LULU last night..maybe a LULU thong or the LULU Hot shorts!.   Sorry to make you sick in the morning...

EJ,  we think we have walked you through this trade in the past week or so.   As we've been saying the accumulation is most likely a forward to Merrill Lynch's initiation of the stock.    In many a traders eye, the play could be over in terms of they got what they wanted this week and moved on.    The 22 level was a no a technical no brainer and was an exit door for some.   This is the one reason one should use charts, to use them as a guide to where you might find resistance or support for your stock.    The Merrill Lynch initiation will come today, we hope its enough to fuel this some more and at least get it on radar of more money.     Don't expect anything to send this to the moon though.   Just like pre-earnings runs, this might have been a pre-coverage run led by those in the know...we'll see shortly depending on the $ tgt ...if they give one.

APOG,   this one we bought into and as usual with it maybe a little early at 26, as it did its traditional yo-yo action on day of a good report. Every Q this one seems to beat and we were waiting for the exact action we saw later as this moved from 25' to high 27's intraday and finished strong.  The potential in this stock short term is in the charts. You can easily see the last two reports on gaps and then the follow through to higher ground.    Not sure why this got so beat up during the summer and frankly don't care after these earnings.    ----------------                Reports Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.36; revenues rose 19.7% year/year to $217.7 mln vs the $209.1 mln consensus. Co raises EPS guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.43-1.53 vs. $1.50 consensus, up from $1.37-1.47; raises FY08 revs guidance; co sees revs growth of 11-13%, which equates to ~$887.1-903.8 mln vs. $877.17 mln consensus, up from revs growth of 10-13%, which equates to $879.1-903.1 mln. Co says, "We remain optimistic about our businesses and markets served, and are positioned to meet our longer-term objectives of 8% annual revenue growth and 20% average earnings growth through FY10. Our solid year-to-date earnings along with our strong backlog, commitments and bidding activity give us confidence in our ability to grow revenues and earnings through FY10.

LWAY, the chart was getting our attention the day before and the open, even on light volume showed us some potential....simple as that.  A nice move ensued and volume was pretty good on the day.   Hopefully, the chart came to a few more overnight and we will have some follow through action today.

LDK JASO MR ANIK ICOC GS ,   top out our trading list for Friday.



The action that we noted as unremarkable..out of breath?, the last 2 days showed it's colors yesterday as the high flyers of last week were wavering from the start of trading action yesterday.  As the market indices moved higher the stocks we closely follow... a few examples DRYS EXM EJ WX GRMN and a bunch of others were just boring.   Usually this is a sign for us to dwindle down our positions in our niche as many times they are a precursor to what the market may do.  The difference now is it is Q end and as we've been saying from last weekend the vibe should be good and so the chance of a decent pullback in the markets is remote the last days of the month.   Still, this lagging action in almost 2/3's of the stocks we eye closely does not look to give us an opportunity to look for further upside in many names into next week.    Right now, we'd be trading hour by hour, if some stock looks promising in the morning with volume it might be worth a buy in,  but that comes with a sell out most likely end of day.   We'd monitor yesterdays afternoon lows on the indices if it comes to that as a reason to get out.   Yesterday, we were somewhaton the ropes as we slipped to lows of day and then a timely report came out of a Buffett stake in BSC to get everyone's juices going again.  We'd be selective now in our choices, or frankly take a shot at some of these Chinese spec stocks for a whirl on a $2 dollar ticket. INTN?.  It seems fresh enough and undiscovered by the China spec herd.    Our else load up on GM or some other DJIA stock if you think you are missing something late this week. lol.  No wait, GS is plenty to get through the day if you want some big name to toss around.  JRJC is the one on the other side of the spectrum to keep trading. LDK, the primary play and the other solars still are playable. These are the same we'd concentrate on today most likey if we want to play.

We'll wait to see how the premkt and open shapes up and then decide if there is anything out there to chase.  The possibility exists that unless the indices breakout over the 14000 level in the short term, we might have some range trading and therefore a lack of potential breakout to the upside that would extend to our stocks under coverage.  Therefore, a lack of easy trades and phantom breakouts in the short term.



a bunch of Yo- Yo's

Before yesterday's trading day,  we noted we'd be trading hour by hour, not a bad idea it seems as what we have is a bunch of yo-yo's day to day..hour to hour.  You almost have to make a choice of whether to hold these through the slips or just daytrade the heck out of them.  Unfortunately the 5-10% down days make it hard to hold till the next day and the daytrading mode might not be for you to capitalize when they pop in the other direction.  We've never been ones to daytrade these stocks, getting in and out of them on a daily basis was not the way we played them to these lofty perches they are sitting on.    Simply at this time, this is seemingly what you have to do with the DRYS EXM LDK GRMN FSLR JASO stocks or just hold through the volatile action and take some lumps on off days.   On any given day you are getting 5,6,7, 8 pt intraday trading range, with the close either at the low's or highs of that day in most instances.  One day they are tepid and lagging the overall mkt and/or red, the next day, they are flying.   Also, it is not so easy to say a stock making a NCH will continue on forward the next day.   Now, you simply don't know what the stocks we've covered this Q will do the next day.   There is only one way to explain the action and that is to understand it as a Q end phenomenon with a lot of hedgies flying in and out of these big winners of the past Q and creating this volatility.  Performance anxiety after a horrible July and August for too many of them.  Probably started padding the books with this China spec stuff and got the wildfire started.   We doubt the timing is a coincidence. have 3 choices really, one is take the lumps the bad days or even intraday moves can throw buy and sell the same day ...or three...which is stay out completely to avoid the stresses of it all and await a calmer trading environment.   There is no reason to point out plays reaching NCH's Thursday,  you're most likely rolling the dice with most DJIM plays into the last trading day of the Q, even with less volatile issues like MR EJ. careful today as the funky stuff will likely continue...either try get jiggy wit it on an uptrend or just stay out...

AZZ, an original DJIM play is one to possibly trade off today following earnings. $36 premkt.


DJIM #40  2007

All the fist pumping, Q end dressing by the funds managers of all sorts didn't amount too much by the end of the week on the indices. The DJIA was up just over 70 and the NASD put in a 30pt week. The markets coming up to July highs coincides with the start of another earning season. The earnings will tell the tale if we break through.  Unfortunately, last Q didn't provide many stellar plays in the EPS world, we hope this season is better as it typically is.  The Shippers, Solars, Chinese stocks we follow will certainly provide more trading opportunities, but we hope there will be some fresh EPS stocks to trade in.

AZZ, seems every Q this stock starts off earnings season with a good report. This time was no different as it reported, Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.66 per share, $0.18 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.48; revenues rose 29.8% year/year to $81.6 mln vs the $78.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.95-2.05 vs. $1.82 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $315-325 mln vs. $316.31 mln consensus.  This stock is based on the US economy but its presence in new markets should provide stability if things dry up here. This really doesnt matter to us as AZZ has a tendency to binge to the upside or downside as evident in the charts making it a pure trend trading stock.

FSLR, despite the daily intraday up and downs this was the best looking of the big 3 solars here (LDK, JASO) on Friday.  Volume has been quite heavy on consecutive days and it is very close to a NCH.  It seems the solars are in the news daily now with price targets, contracts and if there is anything on FSLR in the days to come this could drive through its highs nicely.  This is one solar that hasn't pull backed the last two trading days.  BofA raised EPS estimates for FSLR on Friday. Earnings are end of month.

GS, this continues to be a good trade since we picked up coverage of it in the $190's. Volume has slowed down and the daily trading range is getting thinner. With more FED interest rate talk this month a stock in this sector might not be a bad idea going forward.

ANW BIDZ CLDA, are the A B C's of what traded well on Friday.   As far as SSTR, we think more digging is needed in finding the value of this company. A listen to the CC might be in order to get a better picture, it is not as simple as the headline number might suggest. We'll watch from here to see if this does have substance. That's easier then getting all muddy calculating the private placements/Outstanding share dilution.


A wait and see

A wait and see atmosphere will prevail most likely till Fridays key jobs report. Yesterday the markets simply consolidated and digested the recent move upwards, including Monday's big day.  Simply, the jockeying for position started and we'll now soon if the Sept jobs report was an anomaly. We're looking for a rebound here in the report and therefore are not going out without a fight.    Basically,  we are not abandoning ship with yesterdays expected slide.   The more recent names like VMW, AZZ, FSLR, we have no problems with, yesterday is probably just a blip and we are definitely not losing sight of GS.    Many names we've covered here were due for some profit taking, we've mentioned continuously the last few days not to forget to take home some of your gains.   They were obvious.   We might get another opportunity to load and recycle these big winners very soon but at lower prices, so they can wait.

LDK, noted in Forum in AH's as an opportunity last night following news of the Financial controller who exited the company saying they don't have as many Big Mac patties in their freezers as they say they do.   We thought a firm will come out this morning and help this rebound.  One still might.  Just as good is the company coming forward this morning and taking a business like approach to get this straightened out quickly.  The stock had rebounded about 10 bucks so far from AH's low's.  It should be a volatile trade today, but in the mid 50's we've taking quite a bit off premkt and then see how it shapes up early in the trading day.  The uncertainty here over the short term will make us look at LDK as a day trading opp' until this is resolved in some manner.

Just be patient now and maybe not start positions you'll regret tomorrow if the employment numbers are not to snuff.  Not much we're aching to try out today at this point .  We all know that can change quickly in this market.   The market players want a signal from the payroll # for direction to the FED and whether it continues to ease.   In the meantime, you could just trade the China spec's that have no interest in tomorrows