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Entries in Ag's/Chem/Ferts (4)


Hardly a 'clean' day

Just as you’d like a ‘clean beat ‘  from a reporting EPS stock,  you’d like a  ‘clean UP’  broad market day. Today, despite a >7pt. rise in the SPX,  the broad market tape was hardly clean.   What’s interesting is during the 3.7% slide last week, defensive stocks never got a bid, but today as the market continues to bounce, it is the Utilities, Telecoms safety trade that leads.   Add in to the equation high growth winners that went back to being sold off (CRM FFIV NFLX AKAM CMG and many more) and you question the validity of this market gain or simply ask what it might be telling you.(only AAPL bucking trend, but that’s co’ specific newsflow).  Tomorrow is the 1st of the month and as everyone all the way to Timbuktu knows this is an ‘up’ day since last August, including many >2% days.   If it wasn’t for this market almanac fact, a down day would be the expectation following a tape of this nature.  It still might be if crude stops easing.


  • Commodities – Shadowlist updates have been few since the start of last week’s noise.  If there is a trade oppy’,  it continues to be in this space as last note pre-Thursday trading day.  Ag’s ferts  (NEU, POT) bounce for 4th consecutive day and CLF  is the outperformer low 90’s to 97 in the coal space since.(KOL-ETF, flirting with February highs) space since….”As all noise is around $100 crude, it is surprising plays around coal are not be used.  Look for trading opportunities here  on the energy  play as this quiet reaction should change. (CLF, WLT, ANR ).  After peeling back sharply since mid-Feb, Ag’s Ferts were the first to see a buy interest reversal.”
  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ’10-   As above,  the high growth space is a concern as this lagging space had a few decent days since PCLN  eps, but now has gone back to pre-PCLN earnings ways. 


As the market meandered near the flat-line in the morning, you as a trader begin to look over the Shadowlist to see any trends developing. What you see today, is what you see many days lately and that’s pockets of strength in stocks linked to any individual news. IE., First hour of trading,MCP  >10% on an acquisition, APKT >5% on target price increases and the flip side SODA down 10% on a 5mln share offering, NVDA on price decrease.  

Unfortunately, a sidelined market consists of days like this as traders jump on anything making news, even if it is as irrelevant as a price tgt increase without an upgrade attached.  Other more important trends were visible and that’s where ‘slower’ money is going instead of ‘fast money’ looking for a quick flip in and out. (see below).  If you pick up the relative strength early on, you can dwindle your Shadowlist trading list from 60 names to maybe 10 to concentrate on intraday.

By trading close, a meandering market continued and the stocks/sec’s noted here kept outperforming and/or underperforming.  Nothing really changed all day.

The SOX once again weighted on the market as the biggest underperformer <1%.  AMC, TXN bought a grandfather of a semi stock for a huge premium.  It will likely be a very temporary boost as pre-announcements possibilities are first and foremost in investor’s minds.



Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 – Last week we noted strength in Chinese Internet related names, once again SOHU BIDU, SINA  were up 3-7%.

Commodities  - Relative strength in Ag’s/ Chems continued to follow through post USDA report.


pile up..

Hey, what’s one more negative (SP downgrade) headline to toss into the market, adding to the pile we discussed in this weekend’s DJIM #16.(escalating weekend Euro debt situation already had ES down 10pts.)

As ‘panicky’ wire headlines hit at 9am and spread into the open thanks to S&P threat to downgrade US debt in the future, most probably couldn’t decipher what it means to TSY’s/Treasuries, USD and definitely the equity market as it fell fast and furiously.

Considering a threat is just an idle threat until exercised, we followed up quite confidently 15 minutes into the trading day that if SP~1295 hit, it would likely be a buy point for today after dissemination of the downgrade.  Of course many would not suggest buying a gap down and a falling knife, but all you had to do was look at the Shadowlist components and see individual stocks were not being sold off.   This glimpse as usual allows you to make a decision even if you don’t know the consequences yet of any seemingly negative newswire that may have hit.  Can’t say we’ve seen one (outlook downgrade) to the US before to know what it may bring upon equities, so today it was best to rely on good old Shadowlist for guidance.  Besides, didn’t we all downgrade US debt long ago!  This doesn’t mean you jump and buy stocks (some names below worked) as much as it means you don’t panic and sell.   Soon after follow-up, market fell another ~10pts to 1295, a re- test and later a decent push to 1307H in the afternoon.  What the early trade demonstrated was it’s an ES/ETF trade again with investors holding on to individual stocks while fast traders play.  

*Although an important week, the holiday-shortened trading week with desks emptying by the hour as we go forward , we can expect exaggerated moves in either direction that don’t mean much as positions in all asset classes get squared away before the holiday.


Commodities – Keep seeing excellent numbers in Ag-equipment stocks recently, LNN, VMI, (TITN  initiated today in follow-up section).  So far this month not much is loved as earnings get sold off in most cases good or bad(LNN VMI) in this space, but sooner than later money flow will go into what is showing growth for rest of ’11.

Consumers- LVMH , luxury goods out of Europe gave an upbeat report after overseas market close helping retailers here, notably LULU, but overall outperformance seen in group.

Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Very nice reversals in AAPL, PCLN, each 10pts and hopefully a leading good sign.  WYNN, IPGP  as well back to high levels, while  SINA  really popped. Also, like LVMH, Infineon a chip from Europe helped earnings sentiment as it pre-announced AMC in Europe.  Unfortunately, TXN did nothing AMC as most US corps’ so far this earnings season.


Europe respects solid earnings

Heading into the trading day, cited strong European earnings from a lux retailer and a semi.  This was followed by broad range of companies today… another lux’ retailer, a beer co, a cosmetics co, a drug co powering European markets by US open.  Hum???...Gains despite an escalating European debt crisis ?    At least someone has the right sense, while here in US investors continue to fickle through reports as seen by GS blowout number. (TAG below :’fickle investors’ for more).   Europe results/reactions have probably signalled a change coming here.

As speculated sooner than later this selling phenomenon will end if solid earnings keep coming in. (outside of banks/brokers as it’s a sector ‘want’ within Financial reports that isn’t showing up and doesn’t relate to other sectors). ..”Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.”

In all, a good sign was the early morning gains that disappeared, reappeared and tracked on even more in the afternoon to close at day highs..  Many of the names noted from Shadowlist yesterday exploded out of the gate and/or had significant follow through days. Even though the RUT underperformed the indices , the Shadowlist components had very good action as seen below.



Commodities –  Yesterday’s alert on Ag- equip names had a decent day adding on to yesterday gains, MOS POT~4 NEU LNN   will squeeze nicely if this group action keeps up from it’s basing here.  OSN +20%  today. After getting beat up due to all China fraud/ guilty by association, it reported nicely last week with 20% +guidance numbersThe PE on this steel name is crazy so keep watch for bottom feeders here possibly.

Consumers-   LULU   followed through to over $100/4% at the open,  UA  hooked on a for a ride to NCH as well/~4%., RL intraday high.  All these names fall into luxury ‘apparel’ . Burberry earnings today followed LVMH.

Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Chinese internet names covered here almost daily outperformed again, SINA 12 pts intraday, SOHU, BIDU.  IPGP,  here as well yesterday tacked on 4pts/6% NCH.   As far as ’10 momo’s, there is hesitation on names like FFIV APKT VMW ahead of earnings, even after RVBD upside pre-announcement.  Most of these networking/telecom related names were down ahead of JNPR results tonight.  FNSR  was the outperformer linked name as it trades well recently eyeing gap.  QLIK- nch

Big night ahead for tech results, watch if any disappointment EPS' get bought into or we see a ‘baked in/better than feared scenario for signs of semi’ tsunami ending.  LLTC has a big Japan impact, so will watch how it reacts to what it says about the impact.

*Note : you can click TAGS below on site for '11 notes on stocks/ sectors etc.