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Entries in ghm (11)


A Good Test...

When a market participant looks for a catalyst that can potentially change the general direction of the market, he/she usually looks at the homefront, where it matters.    Sure, last few days the oh so powerful Shanghai market seemed to have derailed badly but there isn't any talk of catastrophic consequence in their economy as a result.   Hence, the action did not spill over to America and whatever happens there, stays there.   Today we had a little something different and the worry stemmed from within America and the never ending talk of "interest/inflation worry" came up again and many talking heads feel this is the cause for today's slide.    For us, we literally had to check our quotes more than a few times just to realize that we are indeed in a "selloff".    Oh yeah, GOOG just made a new high and closed well over $500.    Maybe, people are just spooked by the fact we haven't had a good ole "whack the bid" kind of day in a long time.   So there, we got the selloff today and it's time to move on.

Aside from the Index action(which is total BS in our opinion), we are seeing some very good and healthy action among few individual stocks and certain sectors.     Ok folks, whenever you see more than 90% of holdings on your watchlist are having a bad day, then you may get a bit worrisome and think about some quick exit strategy.    Good breadth gives us the courage to stay and chase while bad breadth simply chases us away.   In our opinion, breadth is the key telling of whether we should be hanging in this market or not.

TNH, +5%, this one did not disappoint a bit and came out smoking off yesterdays buy in and finished just as strong.    This is in fact a new closing high and it'd be interesting to see if it can challenge the triple digit area.    The whole group seems to be up today and we wouldn't be surprised if this one goes even higher given the sustained movement in the entire sector.

CROX, whenever the other two DJIM big guns are taking a rest, this one takes over the baton and charges higher.    This is almost 20 pts higher since our initial buy about a month ago.    This goes to show that whenever we see a highly liquid stock with a very favorable probability of pulling multi point runup, we just have to go in big and patient.    By the way, during the runup thus far, this one has never closed below 9 ema.   It kissed 9 ema a couple of times but that's about it.   This is a sign of a very strong stock, historically speaking.   As a matter of fact, exact same deal with both FWLT and MA, neither of those closed below 9 ema ever since their EPS breakout.

GHM, this is an old name that came out with an excellent Q.  We admired the effort premkt as some(one) was working hard to prop up the price. buying lots of 50 shares, including one order at 23+ plus.  Unfortunately, they don't seem to know these odd lots don't appear on many trading platforms. Oh well. The action picked up a bit premkt and it traded to $22 in the first 10minutes and $23 in 10 more after the bell.  ,With the market sliding, a CCall coming and we just preferred to play some later on a probable dip later.

A few a stocks off yesterdays buy list hung in tough considering the early market action, but especially since they were up big yesterday. This includes KMGB LPHI  AHD and ATLS which was given a tgt bump up to $67 by FBR

CUB, up over 25% since we alerted May 3rd closed with another NCH, this is probably finally being recognized as a defense name!. Another DJIM defense stock hovering near highs, SPAR also had a nice day up 7%

MFLO LXU,  we are keeping a close eye on these two as both are in our opinion setting up for a potential b/o into new highs.




A true test...

If yesterday was a good test of your holdings against a shaky market, then today definitely gives a true appreciation of how "good" your holds are.     Of course, if we get few more back to back shaky days like today, it probably wouldn't have mattered much what you hold.   Overall, we think the market action is healthy.    For whatever the catalyst/excuse that caused the slide, it's needed to correct this market into a healthier stand.    This is assuming that this is not the beginning of an end for this market here.   At this point, we don't believe it is and we are acting that way also.

We have a number of good closes today and given another hour, we think some more stocks culd have battled their way into the green.    Individualism is running full and strong in this market today.   Breadth is poor but if most of your holdings are in green territory, you'd feel that you are doing something right and will try to keep it up.   Can you imagine if last two days were up?   We'd been asking that question throughout last couple of days...

KMGB LPHI,  these two were the stars two days off their respective earnings announcement and they've held up very well despite the market weakness.   We added some LPHI today because we feel this one has had the best action amongst our holds.

CROX, good stock battles back and this one did exactly that toward the end.     As it comes near its split date and we think the action will heat up accordingly.

AHD, so this one only did less than 40k shrs today.   This stock also has only 4 mill float and probably less if you take into account the institutional holders.    We liked the deal that was announced couple of days ago and think this one definitely has the potential to move up.

GHM CUB put in very respectable green days as well.

Many recent names here such as NTLS MFW LXU RCCC ATLS TTC SPAR MA TBSI barely broke a sweat in the profit taking sweep across the market,  even the volatile TNH battled at over $95 till the last 30 minutes. 

One we added today, VSNT (Co reported May29th,Q2 EPS of $0.52 vs $0.32 in 2Q06; revs rose 37% YoY to $5.2 mln (no estimates). Co raises FY07 guidance to $1.50-1.62) falls into above category.  But as we said at the start, if we get more shaky days it probably won't matter what you hold.  Unless it's cash of course.



DJIM #24  2007

In Sopranospeak, FUHGEDDABOUTIT! was the markets message Friday.  Unfortunatley, it won't be so easy going forward.  The rally defintely has felt true pressure and last week has fueled the bears.  What spawned the rally we've experienced for months was rehashed as earning (NSM) and M&A (X) activity were again two of the catalysts the spurred the recovery rally Friday. Oil helped and CNBC feeling the uproar from their audience got Gross to appear to elaborate, more like clarify on the headline they spewed Thursday afternoon.  All this closed out one wild week and if you took a chill pill Thursday night with us before drawing any drastic conclusions, you had no need to empty your book before the weekend.  What the recovery rally provided is it drew a line in the sand.   The lows on the major indices Friday will be the area to watch for many.  If we break this area, we will become very cautious of a secondary correction.   If this area is kept away from, we should be able to trade accordingly. One thing though is earning season is over and that major market catalyst is removed for the time being.  Can the market continue on with M&A activity pushing it till next earning Q.  We've got about 3-4 weeks to find out and we will trade in smaller sizes until, especially if playing this Q's DJIM names.   You want to be in size at the beginning of a potential earning move eg CROX, FWLT.  The first leg you could say.  At this point there is no way we would play these in the same sizes as before, we prefer to wait for a new crop and by that time we will know exactly where the market stands!. So for now we'll remain cautious and go with a manageable book.  Not too many positions and not oversized.  If this was a sign of volatility for the summer of 100+/-30+/- pts days, we'd prefer it to the laziness we often start to see at this time of the year.

Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...common sense also tells you if the market starts showing signs of slipping again, these probably won't stay strong much longer.  Unless fertilizer is the next black gold!...A few of those are...

KMGB LXU TNH are all chemical stocks in one way or another, all showed strength before the rally clicked and so we were buying them again as the market gained strength. KMGB made it to the #40's in IBD this weekend.

CUB CROX RCCC NTLS MFLO still trade 9ema or above, very little damage sustained over the week.  Again 9ema is an area of short term support for most of the stocks we cover. We want to hold stocks above it, not below it!.

LPHI, GHM are fresh names (3-5 days off gap earnings) and of course are trading above 9ema.   

MA got some good news and might recapture the 9ema quickly from it.  FWLT did that Friday, but barely.

ATLS, if sec turns this could be ready to bounce off 9ema level.  AHD, holding up well.  

The shippers got whacked and we'll likely just watch them for now.



DJIM #25  2007

This is definitely a helluva of a start to the summer. The recent scare of back to back to back days of declines leading to last weeks broad rally is volatility at it's best and every traders dream.  It was just on the 14th (3rd day of declines), we said lets all take a chill pill and not act hastily with our books and wait to see who/what puts the bears into the woodshed.  Seemingly, everyday since there has been something to reignite the Bull and his herd.  Friday was the crowning as tepid inflation numbers brought back hopes of better growth to go with it.  If you had the QQQQ on level2 as the CPI came out, you'd think you won the lottery before the open.  An important ingredient to last weeks rally was being prepared.  The only way to do that is having stocks in tow or watch listed to recycle into that were strong to begin with. We think we were definitely ready here at DJIM by having 'strong stocks' as the market finished its tumble.  In DJIM #24, "Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...".

Included in this list were :         KMGB    LXU    TNH     CUB    RCCC   LPHI     GHM    MA     FWLT 

1 week % performances          21.46    8.16   19.15   4.37  19.73    25.72  10.28   9.80   5.49

Simply all you needed was a healthy dose of DJIM stocks to recycle if need be.  It is so much easier when you have the right watch list without having to seek out what is hot in a fast and furious market. This allows you time to concentrate on trading and getting in early if you were not there already.  Saves time and money.

Beyond the above DJIM stocks that we will continue to stalk, we also had a few names..old and new come to forefront last week...

One of our all time DJIM favorites, MFW was picked up on the hunch they will do something with their cash, well more of a hunch the hedgies will feel that way.

KHDH was one we didn't get much out of recently but oh boy did it show its magic for the last 3 days since alerted $58.5`s. A fast 5 points-8% to the high of Friday.

AIRT, was introduced Thursday $9.60`s area and almost hit $11 at the open the next day before digesting its previous days gap and big percentage day.

SDTH, we just couldn't buy and type fast enough it seems. We started buying the low 5`s and by the time we got the alert out it was 5.30 and then exploded to 6.25 in the next 15 minutes. We said what we saw as angle to this play and soon enough it seems Briefing saw it the same way. Fertilizer and China with earnings.   See their write up posted in Forum by a member. 

AHD MFLO VSNT pretty well round out the play list.

..most importantly today...A Happy Father's Day to our friends here!




Better than nothing....

"We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?." 

Well...we didn't get any news noise in the morning but we still got an early continuation bump from yesterday, which was hardly a surprise considering what was a sizeable drop.  By 10am we hit that 2590ish mark (2586 low to be exact) and the rest is history.  Last night we thought there was no reason to fret, simply the bears caught the bulls napping after 3 days of churning yesterday.  That's the way we felt while it was all going on and later last night after catching our breath.   If it was the yield climbing yesterday...why didn't we go lower as it climbed to 5.19% today?.    Are we satisfied with today's reversal?.   The answer is no, but that could change tomorrow.   You see DJIM stocks have a way outperforming the indices and not performing on par when the market rallys.   We have seen this time and time again and have written about it many times.   Despite the rally today, it was really only for the techs on the Nasdaq...even the big caps really didn't perform to NASD snuff.   There were a few DJIM's that bounced nicely off low's...MA 6 pts...TNH 12 pts..FWLT got in the grove late for 3 pts, but the problem was with many of the small-micro caps that have been running here that didn't perform as we would have liked.   This list includes SDTH, KMGB, CMED, LXU, AIRT, VSNT etc. but a few did like LPHI, TBSIGHM  (34k vol. woo hoo).   Still..besides the few it was uninspiring in the scope of things, but at least yesterdays fall did not continue today.   So..maybe we shouldn't be so picky....Yeah right!.  Let others and their niches have a good time while we are predominately left out.   NO WAY, JOSE!

If today wasn't just a blip like the fall yesterday was....well then we expect some action in the DJIM stocks that did little today to move tomorrow. This is even if the market digests today's gains and does little all day...but we do have the Blackstone (BX)  IPO tomorrow, which should help the karma on the trading floors.  Maybe it can spread...



Dealing with the inevitables...

So everybody knew it's just going to be a matter of time, sooner or later...this market is going to rebound from that horrid 500 pt drop last week.   How could it not, right?   Of course, we just don't know when it'll happen and how it's going to happen.    Well, the day did not start with any conviction that we are going to have that rebound day.   You can just feel the jitters with fvery tick of the indexes, up and down.   Actually, there's always that fear looming over some people's head that "what if that 500 pt drop turns into a 1000 pt drop?"   Of course, it's just highly unlikely that market drops 1000 points without any kind of rebound.    We may very well drop a total of 1000 points over the next few months or years, but it probably won't take just 3 days to do that.   A little logic,  street sense, you may call it always plays a role in our thinking day to day.

There was a battle going on earlier in the day between those that looking to sell into any strength (the 1000 pt fearer) and dip buyers.    Finally, when it's apparent that market isn't going to drop today, the reverse happens and people just rushed in to buy up some of their favourite targets.  Hence, we had the inevitable rebound.    At this point, it's going to be hard to convince people that this is nothing but a short lived rebound attempt and the overall technical picture is pretty gloomy.   Well, at least this is probably the majority of the "smart" traders think anyway.    To us, we'll try not to out think the thinkers and outplay the markets.    The strategy is to go with the flow with some contained exposure.    We would bear in mind the potential risk of selling off again but still trade those with the best momentum and setup.    The point here, is that we have to stick with our game and plan.   If we took some loss from last week,  we'd grind it back, slowly but surely.   Having confidence in our ability to trade well in an up moving market is the key to long term success in this business. Some..most..can't do stay put!....Right now, we just have to be super disciplined and be ready to go cash on a moment's notice.    Other than that, it's really business usual and last week's drop does not change our personality or strategy or discipline level whatsoever.    The only thing that may have changed since last week is perhaps our portfolio value ...   Frankly, that is the easier part to deal with given the number of similar scenarios we've gone through before.

Now a couple of earning plays and story stocks that should be kept a close eye on......

ARTC. this is a play that weathered a 300 point Dow drop by announcing its earning last Friday.    When market turned positive today, it's almost inconceivable that this one would do anything other than being up.   After another above average volume day, this one tacked on two points and a new closing high.    Again, we like this one's business and we don't think any "sub prime or prime concern" would have any adverse effect on this one.  It is at the most recent price targets set by a few recently.

AXYS, this one actually had a buy reiteration today, so some of the move maybe attributed to that.   In either case, any stock that gets a new closing high in this gloomy environment deserves a trade from you..

LDSH, this one actually had a downgrade the day after it ran up off earning.   We are just wondering if it wasn't for the downgrade, would this one already be well over $50s?   Of course, it's useless thinking about questions like that.   We just simply have to deal with what's already taken place.   It's going to get a good test to see if it can zoom past $50 and beyond.    We think a lot depends on the overall health of the market.   However, if this market rebound does carry some leg, there's no doubt that this one can be one of the leaders leading the gainer list.

FSLR,  if you happen to catch some intraday swing, it's pretty sweet.   Earning is tomorrow and this one is something we'd definitely keep an eye on as this can set the tone for the rest of the solar sector for next little while.  We said watch for pre-earnings moves in our listed stocks reporting, this one  definitely got one today.

GHM, for a small company with a small float, its earning looks pretty good.   Valuation is still very reasonable.    We would be trading some with the flow

PWRD, this is a new play we've added to our watch list last since Friday.    This can trade wildly but it can be rewarding if you are on the right side of the trade.    There's some good amount interest in this play, so we'd trade it until the characteristic changes. Not for all!. 

There are many bouncing as expected...CCF.....some of these are so thin it is easy to walk up as it was to walk down last week.


Reassuring day?

Perhaps Not!    It's just troubling to see that index is up so much while the decliners are still out pacing the gainers.     Ok, many of us have to admit at the end of the day that this huge point gain hasn't really done much for us, the individual traders.    What the market is doing is that it's trying its best to confuse and frustrate traders at the same time.    Do we play this rally aggressively or not?   For all we know, tomorrow could be a nasty selloff day.   This is the kind of uncertainty we are facing day in and day out for the last little while.     Under normal circumstance, this rally would be viewed as very bullish.    In the current environment, it only makes us fearful that this is just another rally that would soon be crushed.    Well, if pattern serves right, we'd be going right down either tomorrow or the day after.      Ok, enough of this "once bitten, twice shy" analogy.

What we have been doing today is prioritizing our trading list and put those stocks that have just recently announced good earning as the ones to play and monitor.     Many stocks have suffered lots of damage technically but we are able to still find some decent plays that offer us good trading setups.    Here's a few that ought to be familiar by now...

FCN, this one came out with earnings when the Dow dropped close to 300 points last Friday.   Today we believe traders are realizing the value of its earning and bid it up.  We like this one's momentum and we are trading it aggressively.

ARTC, this one also is a recent earning play that has pretty much weathered the volatility of this market.    Perhaps it has alot to do with the type of business this company does and it's definitely standing out from the crowd and notched another high.

LKQX, it came out with earning last week and it notched a new high quietly.   We like this one's setup today and we are monitoring it very closely.

GHM, this is one of the very few small caps that actually did well today.  We added some and we are looking for some more follow through on this one.

DOCX, after its first earning reaction last Friday, we are more encouraged by its action today.   The more we read the report, the more we feel more confident about this little play.   The only question remains is the question of sustainable interest.   Will there be enough interest that can give this play a run?   At this point, we aren't too sure but we did add some today on its improved action.

CRNT, so this one came out as #1 on IBD100 and we got the initial pop as expected.    We don't think this play is over.  The longer it stay above $15, the more likelihood that  it can try for more upside. 


..Boy Scouts

We welcomed a surprise Fed minutes stimuli in yesterdays Journal to get us out of a meandering market place and we got it good!.  Well..pretty good as the volume still sucks out there.    The policymakers acted like boys scouts in their last open committee meeting as all agreed.   A united group they stand.    As much as anything this shared analysis, therefore a determined effort by all on the correct response provided the kick we needed, included in this was Poole's comments that for once didn't rattle the markets.    There were no differences as earlier and this was probably the most important factor seen by the big players.   Equities simply rallied as the FED did not see broad based weakness in the economy and the market said let's get on with it and put the credit squeeze behind us.     A few M & A deals were overshadowed, but this was also a good sign.   Again, as discussed in the weekend edition of DJIM# 41, good trading is a case of being in the right stocks that would potentially move the best when the market gets a lift and therefore gives a lift to your stocks on the good news. ..."....Simply,  if you had the right stocks the probability was they would be the ones that would give the strongest day.   You have to feed off good news and use the lift provided by news to lift your stocks.   What stocks will be the beneficiary, which have the best chance of catching volume???.  Always ask yourself.   We should all know from the group of stocks we cover".        If you have your hand in these closely monitored stocks you'll know what we mean...starting with...

DRYS TBSI  EXM and the secondaries noted yesterday premarket ESEA/PRGN.  All up 5-10% on the day with DRYS the volume monster.  It was already a good day for all of these before the minutes gave them another round of kicks higher.  The Baltic Dry Index the gauge of freight costs was toying with the 10,000 point level.   The demand from emerging markets is incredible with port congestion in many a country.  The capacity is drained and these boys can kick up rates.   This is nothing new as this has been expressed here constantly, including yesterday.  A possible good sign is other smaller plays are participating in this last binge buying and it all started with the, ..."The shippers, notably DRYS TBSI moved off 9ema yesterday. EXM should follow if this small reversal holds" noted Friday morning.   A helluva run from that short term support area of the 9ema.  Maybe this FREE can catch on if the micros piggyback action in recent days continues, unfortunately, that bloody ARCA on level 2 is still on the ask and not showing his hand.  Once removed this could really move just off its tiny float. 

GS,  if you want a barometer for this market lately look no further.  The drift, the lull of fence sitters was evident in the action of GS proceeding the minutes.   Interestingly, we thought this was setting up to hear a clue of more interest rate cuts in the near term to drive it higher yesterday. Instead, it fed off the news and took a different approach as to signs the boy scouts gave.  To gauge the minutes reaction all you had to do was to watch GS's reaction.   It was evident instantly, we might be in for a good stretch run late in the day.   If we had to pick a large cap, we're glad GS has been a fave here since those recent $190's.

VMW,  recently we talked of this having a shot at 90+, yesterday we talked of $100..what next ?lol.  We're happy to have this as the tech stock of choice if the techs continue forward off good earnings.  Again, you don't need a lot of stocks, you just need the right ones.

STV,  a simple follow up is that it held the morning open prices after retracing to them midday. We'd keep an eye on that level in the short term if breached as a possible exit before re-entering at a later point. Otherwise ...have fun!. Just don't forget there is a market out there beyond watching the minute ticks of this all day.   If STV has you on the edge of the seat because you fear the drops it already has given, take a smaller position.  You don't want to miss other opp's this market gives daily.

A few others from our Journals.....LDK, trade it, flip it..we just won't hold it overnight.   A day turnaround does not make an uptrend in our minds.  Company can say one thing, but a few want to see the independent reports and simply the problem there is not yet solved or the stock would be up much more.     Looks like a lawsuit or two is coming already.     AZZ, maybe closed the gap created by earnings and will act like the earnings guided stock it should be..maybe not.   GLDN,  not sure why this reacted this way to a raising of guidance, this is a low float stock and sometimes you lose sight of that because of the group its in and make more of a move than you should.   One thing to consider is while STV might be the Digital play in China, a huge conversion to digital tv is going on in Russia where TV penetration is at 97%.   GLDN is not a pure telecom play, it is a Digital TV play as well and that will be slowly recognized over time.    CETV, this euro stock was a big winner here before and we took a place in it yesterday as it approaches old highs.     A focus here was creating a new watch list of tradable stocks for our members, over time this list has grown and some might be page on 2 or 3 now as those plays wore off.   As noted yesterday in the forum,  it's good to have past flyers around as they may fly again.   History is no mystery.  If a stock was a fast mover that we once liked, it might be again.    AXR might have been one the last few days, but there is a bigger past mover out there in AMAG $55-72 that has had a great month so far.       FWLT, GHM, GTLS might be ones to stick on closer watch again.

Despite the action in afternoon, volume is still a concern.   A few fell off the fence on to the long side yesterday, but not as many as we'd like to see.   What you don't want to see is a continued divergence in the volume with a ladder walk up in points on the major indices.  This is what we are seeing in the NYSE and SPX stuff.


DJIM #43  2007

RIMM, GOOG, AAPL...... then there's MSFT!    The pattern seemed to be fitting until last Thursday.    Microsoft, a company which isn't known for delivering stellar reports and forecasting strong growth in the longest time, basically dropped a bomb that would surprise even the most optimistic bulls.    Of course, we are talking about an upside surprise.    Regardless how we interpret Microsoft's reports and how much we believe in its rosy forecast, it is what it is.    In the world of trading, this is the kind of news that can simply completely change our trading strategy.    In our opinion, Microsft's news is that powerful and we better be prepared for the kind of market that might follow.

Oh yeah, there's still that housing bubble and credit crunch worries and potential huge losses from the financial sector.   By the way, Country Wide Financial just forecasted a return to profitability for next quarter and there's shakeup in one of the biggest Wall street firms, Merrill Lynch.    Problem solved!    No, it doesn't mean that the actual problems are all being resolved right now.    It just means that there's drastic measures that are being put in place to get the things going, an improvement!    It's a process that we are going to be witnessing for months to come.    As long as smart people in those places are doing things to help recover the losses, that's the kind of confidence market will be looking for.

By the way, did we just mention things are still kicking in the growth sector?   Now you can add Microsoft, an unlikely candidate, into the mix.   It's a company who does close to $60 billion of revenue in the technology sector annually and it's forecasting some wicked growth number.   Enough said!

What does this mean to DJIM kind of stocks?    In case you haven't noticed lately, DJIM selection of stocks have moved away from the ultra small caps to some relatively big small caps and mid caps.    Why?   That's where the action is and we are simply adapting to the trend.    Having a flexible mind and approach to trading is one of the must required element to survive in this competitive business.    We don't want to categorize ourselves as small cap specialists, we want to be trend specialists, and so should you!

The bottom line, market is moving higher and there's simply no reason not to keep biting.    Fed is likely to lower the rate again in the coming week and that would give some more conviction to move the asset away from the interest bearing instrument into the equity market.    Dollar is at a all time low and that's an incentive to attract foreign investment.

Now onto some notable plays....

LFT, to simply put, we really really like this IPO!   We think it has the potential to be the next VMW.   We think there's several factors that have a lot going for it.     First, it's the number one IT solution provider within the domestic Chinese financial sector.    You can verify it with its prospectus which is available on its website.    Secondly, we can't recall any legit Chinese IPOs within the past couple of years that have done badly, at least not the ones we picked up early on like the EDU, MR (also NYSE listed).  Thirdly, this one is very unique in its place among the Chinese IPOs where we think it's a huge institutional attraction.    If you want a piece of the Chinese growth, in one of the most profitable sectors(financial sector), where a company that does things to help the expansion and integration of their services, this LFT is the one to get.    Again, the actual financial reports is within the prospectus and you can see it for yourself.      So our game plan?    We are treating this one as a good long term holdings in our account.   We'd try to establish a sizable position as a core holdings and trade some small sizes around the fluctuations.

EJ, believe it or not, one of the DJIM traders actually visited one of their brokerage office in Shanghai recently.    Yes, these guys are one of the biggest player in the real estate market over there.   If you think Shanghai's stock market is making many locals rich, think again.   The biggest market is still the real estate market.     Technically, this is a fresh breakout!   We do notice that this one has tendency to have erratic pullbacks and therefore you will always have opportunity to buy more.     HMIN continues to trend higher after breaking out recently.     EDU, was making new highs as well Friday.  BIDU flew off another $400 price target.   We do not understand the breakouts have no meaning, set ups not to be trusted, money pit comments in our Forum on Friday and we'll leave it at that.   These DJIM closely followedstocks do not fit these comments and the China's IPO's we cover were not setting up or on verge of a breakout as they are sitting off highs. 

GLDN, besides the late Thursday afternoon move following an alert it also exploded the next day to almost $115.   In some circles that could be a 20% lift overnight.   We have alerted this numerous times over the year and will continue to.   Pullbacks are a natural here and we will go back in size again.  This is similiar to the SPWR as well last week.  If you get these 15% or so moves in hours, you slice the pie up and wait to get in on another pullback.  SPWR proved what a strong quality stock can do late last week.  Just look at the last 3 days finishing up with a NCH.

GHM, remember to glance at the earnings play page so you are prepared for these oldtimers off DJIM at this time of the year.  Another stellar report and a gap up winning day.




Despite the overnight surge in the Asian market, the North American market didn't seem to quite match the same kind of intensity as overseas.    Still, market closed pretty well.   We have Fed meeting this coming Wednesday and the consensus is that Fed will lower the rate.    Again, this is not just anticipated,  it's also being expected.   The question now is how big of a rate cut will we be facing?    Is this the real question we should care about?    No, what we really care is how this market reacts to a 25 pt cut or a 50 pt cut?    In the unlikely event, how will the market react to a no rate cut?    Basically, there are two probable scenario and one unlikely one.   At this point, there's really no reason to overwork a strategy to anticipate the reaction, we'll just have to deal with whatever happens.

As we have been saying for a while, we don't think this rate cut will impact the overall market sentiment by much.    Hopefully, this market is still being earnings driven, and not fear driven, which means that the familiar names will carry this market higher.    There's a lot of disbelief of why this market is at the current level and that actually serves as a good point.    You definitely don't want to see everyone being optimistic and basically we need just as many bears calling for downturn, recession etc. in order for this market to go higher.

LFT STV.    Lets talk about these two as we have been getting some emails toward the end of the day concerning the well being of these two plays.    At this point, what we really want to stress is that these two are IPO's and now LONG term plays as yesterdays Journal noted.  These were already short term plays if you're only looking for a fast trade.  Being an IPO, there's basically no historical trading pattern to dictate a stocks movement.   It means that they will be volatile at the early going, especially the first week or two after its IPO.    That's the way it is!    We have to accept the fact these stocks are brand new and we have to slowly work our positions for a longer time frame as oppose to treating it like a JRJC or EFUT!     If you have any doubts about these two plays, just think about the following facts.     When was the last time can you recall a Chinese IPO on NYSE that have done badly three or four weeks into trading?    Yup, we can't recall a name that we've covered that didn't give us some good movement.    WX, EJ, EDU, LDK, TSL, YGE (nice action yesterday), MR... all serve as good examples of the stocks we've been trading in the past and now months later.     If you include the good ones on NASD, then there's just tons more.     Since we are talking about a NYSE stock here, this instantly gives credibility to these IPOs.    It means that the company is not only profitable but also meets the stringent listing requirement.   CSR (CSCT.ob) got that finally and is now trading on NYSE.   So back to the question, why are these stocks down today despite some good action from other Chinese stocks?   Well, one possible scenario is that some traders were looking for some carry through action like STV on its third day and did not get it, hence they just bailed out.    That is just part of trading and we can live with it.   Other recent momo China stocks like YTEC, JRJC put in quiet red days as well, a pattern emerged quickly as these names underperformed those China names near or at highs.   Our game plan is establishing a good position at this level.   We aren't buying all of our shares at once and that would simply be arrogant and undisciplined.     Now does it mean that LFT is done gong down after today?   Well, we don't know that and there could be some more downside action but we think the downside is limited.     As far as STV goes, the recent low is still intact and we are looking to average some more into any more weakness as we see.      Basically folks, we are dealing with a couple of strong growth oriented Chinese stocks here and they have just been out on the market for a few days.     Rome wasn't built in a day,  so let's just give these plays some room and time to work.

Hopefully, you are running a balanced book of sorts and participating in more than just these IPO's.  Just look at the number of charts updated from our closely followed that were hitting new highs yesterday....CETV-CROX-DRYS-EDU-FSLR-JASO-SPWR-VMW-WBD and GHM.     There is always the big caps GS AMZN, AAPL to balance the book even more.


Solar Burn...

What is really funny about this market is that while a couple of big names that kept on going down every day, we have some names that are going the total opposite direction, which is up.   The Citi news may have very well kick started this week, but all the focus now is on Cisco's earning tomorrow night.  As oil price keeps going higher, so too are the names from solar sector.   This is really the kind of market where you are either in a lot of pain or a lot of joy.    What makes it tough though, however, is to maintain a balanced portfolio where you try to speculate on which sectors would move next.   As we have witnessed, many of the Asian names have been under pressure the last few days while some of the more expensive names on our watchlist  kept us in the game.       

First, the good ones...

FSLR/SPWR/GOOG/MA/BIDU/AAPL/RIMM,  basically, had we been trading nothing but the expensive tickers ($100+), we literally would've been making a killing in this market.    These aren't the names we are unfamiliar with.   In fact, pretty much all of these names are positions in our portfolio at one time or another.    You can say that these are some of the obvious leaders in the market and those are the ones we ought to be owning if we believe this market is going higher.   The point it, we gotta have some of these names in our portfolio.   We may not afford all of them with big sizes but these are the ones that are carrying this market higher.

Solars, JASO TSL SPWR FSLR ASTI, every time dollar gets dumped, and oil gets bid up, and then these guys zoom another 10% it seems.    Some of these names are releasing earnings next few days so we'd have a pretty good picture how traders would react to their report given the current valuation.

AIXG, a somewhat new name to these parts is this German ADR semiconductor/equipment maker bought up early in the morning after earning. It's 9mth eps.17c vs. (0.03), while revenues jumped nearly 50%.  This co' is thriving on the demand for LED units which is in a strong secular growth mode.  The order intake Q# and the resulting backlog was very good here.  In the last 3 Q it's order intake has gone from 40 to 50 to 70mln euros resulting the co' largest ever order backlog.   This stock trades overseas as well and takes it's open gap cue from its action over there.

GHM/DXPE, these two are couple of the recent earning plays that are being bid up quietly.   We definitely don't want to ignore these as they can creep 10% on a weekly basis.

Now the nervous ones...

STV/LFT/CISG/GA,  all these have one thing in common and they are recent Chinese IPOs.    Aren't we supposed to be up 25% by now by holding these?   Right now, we are as puzzled as many others as to why all of these names aren't getting any momentum to the upside.    It feels like in  20 more trading day, there won't be anything left in these stocks;).     At this point, we simply have to play the statistics and probability game.    Any of these would be considered longer term plays and we just have to play that way accordingly.    The quiet period is going to end soon enough for some of these names and earnings are coming up as well.    We are looking forward to those events as they can be the kind of positive catalyst that can drive these stocks.    The bottom line, these plays are still at the beginning.

Simply, you cannot hold one or a few of these IPO's, 'nervous ones' without balancing out your book by trading/ holding the 'good ones'.  That is missed opportunities day after day.