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Entries in Inflation trade (1)

Mar202009 after

As expected,  a good nights sleep,  maybe some nightmares after the FEDS big bang and the euphoria died off in the marketplace today.   You have to be encouraged by the muted tired feeling action, it's better the recent market gains are digested and not relinquished today.   Support at 775 never threatened.  It’s actually funny to hear the word ‘catalyst’ come up again today.   Now, it seems the market wants /needs another catalyst to go further.    Well, let’s put it this way, the FED essentially used it’s last bullet and we’d better get on with life.   What a greedy bunch we traders/investors seem to be,  why not just give the FED "big bang" sometime to take shape.   What did emerge today and what will be the buzzword going forth most likely is inflation.    So, as the market contemplates the stiff ‘800’ SPX (50MA today) at overbought RSI levels with banks-brokers rolling over as the short cover buy demand has abated today, note (seems the Citi pref-common swap trade went against some big hedgies (short common/long prefs., which caused a vicious short cover rally in many of the banks),  you either continue to get caught up in this technical driven market or as we pointed out start looking/ hoping for a group/ sector that may benefit from the FEDS stunner and move away from the technical trade dictating your every move.     The market will do what it needs to do!.    At this point, there are still upside risks as we come into month/Q end for the shorts and that may keep the market from a major pullback and instead break the 800 hurdle later next week.     Right now, we’re going to concentrate on a basket of inflation linked equities and the inflation expectations noise.    Maybe , it’s too early, but the market is quite giddy and it may just rotate quickly into a commodity trade.   It’s only a guess or hope,  but.  with Q end coming it is the perfect time seemingly to get the hedgies to prop up their books.   No better way to do it than try to move the heavily shorted beaten down commodity community..steel (SLX- etf), coal (KOL), E&P, oils, Ag’s-Chems.   

As you remember when we traded with those sectors in the first half of 2008,  the market on a daily basis did not have be green for these stocks to be in the green at the close.   Those days we didn’t care what the SPX was doing, we just went with the individual equities/ sectors.   It might be a dream that months later we can have the same outcome,  but today with the market pullback our shadow list is pretty well all green with many in double digits % gains.   We’ve updated the shadowlist today (link on left at site),  putting back more of the stocks we followed and discovered before many 2X or 3X last year.   

Still, understand that there is NO current bullish news in the global steel/ or iron ore business etc.. The physical market is still slowing, but with stimuli effects in China slowly emerging and with this inflation buzzword coming into play, sooner than later the stock markets participants in these areas will have to start looking forward and not pinpointing day by day activity in March of those markets.  The risk-reward ratio is much more appealing now than it was days/weeks ago for commodity levered equities.