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Entries in gmcr (7)


June starts with a big bang...

This might not be the first day of summer officially, but, we officially kicked off the "slow" summer trading season with a very loud bang.  The positive China PMI  data led to strong overseas trading, the news of GM Chapter 11 (finally closure), and a couple of upgrades in the morning were enough to gap up the market on top of Friday’s strong close.   We noted the importance of China PMI midday Friday and pointed out the impetus in Journal for a move from the month long trading range today… The “holding pattern“, we think is the market waiting for China to make the next move literally. It’s been pretty quiet lately after the initial ‘leg’ up and now we wait for signals for the global , eco’ outlook from China. This will (if positive) include help for the tech outlook and definitely the commodity picture for the 2nd half of the year".    Today, it was the fuel for the impressive global market melt up, no doubt about it!!.   The US ISM number (5th consecutive mthly increase) came out at 10 am and pretty much sealed the deal for the bulls.   The "deal" we are referring to is the official breakout of the recent ‘May’ trading range.

Mid week around SPX 900, “…….we could be getting rotation into consumer driven NAS/tech coinciding with last weeks positive data points in tech conference/eps. So a close over 1430 $NDX can be very bullish and we could be on way to SPX 950, a clear break can be over 915, 920SPX, it may be useless and be a little late to enter after breakout levels we've been talking (930’s May highs)".   What we are pointing here is the $SPX literally made a move under radar in 1-2 hrs of trading of 40-50 pts to a high of ~947 and you’ve missed it,  if you were not positioned in low’s 900’s last week to take advantage of the stealth move.   Considering, we literally hit that ‘on way to 950’,  it's an excuse to take profits off table and re-position.   We’d welcome a pullback to re-initiate many positions, whether it is tech, commods, china linked stocks.

The volume across the tape may not be as super strong as a breakout volume would've warranted, but we’re pretty sure many still can’t believe their eyes and continue to sit on cash.   Money is sipping into the market slowly,  but the world has literally missed the rally.   The statistics don’t lie as many refuse to believe we are in anything but a mild recovery.   The world is underweight, including hedgies, 'whales' and will eventually lead to more upward pressure on equities in the future.

As we have been pointing all along,  a break to the upside has always been the more likely scenario.   Someone has to give up and there was too much "upside risk"  for the shorts/ Bears weighing in on this market.  Technical this time.   Recently, we've had way more positive eco' data points compared to the negative ones.   The earnings have been better than expected and action in the emerging market lately is nothing short of superb.   This is also coupled with the fact financial issues are somewhat behind us.   Everything that has happened lately is viewed as positive development for this market over the long haul.   Therefore, in our opinion, this breakout was inevitable and hopefully our bullish stance at DJIM has payed off for members lately and since March.

So,  what's the trading strategy now?   Although,  we aren't in a mood to chase anything new today, we are mentally prepared to buy stuff back on any worthwhile pullback.   Basically,  the price level that you've seen a few times when SPX was at 875-880 level may not be there in the next little while.    We have to be comfortable with the idea to 'move up' our own buy trading range.    Earnings plays are still the same and those that showed exceptional technical strength are our favourites.  Techs, Commods and China syndrome are back in full force these days.   Besides the obvious long standing commodity/ tech stocks (most on shadowlist link),  we had some recent add-ons such as lodging play HOT  (last alerted low 20's) for a breakout top range move, EJ, china earning play breakout recent tops, CVLT, a tech play is near 2009 high, slow crawler BWY  is back near $15 highs after a pickup here at ~$11.

Oh yeah, were you a good trader and monitor these potential earnings plays we put up early May in a secondary shadowlist?   Some nice pullback buys emerged in what many called a terrible chop trade in May, but as we said it's a stock pickers market going forward and many were making fresh highs, SFLY, STAR, TNDM, CTV.   Stocks on list like DDRX  NEU PENN GMCR  were already in play at DJIM and are likely on our shadowlist link.   Patience is a virtue and pays off well if you have the right earnings stocks.  It is also quite a safe trade and lurking a good pullback works well.

Oh yeah, did anyone catch the AH news that EMC is coming out a competing bid for DDUP?  Remember, we picked up CVLT  last week as a secondary play here.  To be honest with you, we haven't seen this kind of action in the tech land in a long time.

Summer trading, fortunately is also slower paced and has lower than average trading volume.   This is actually better for us to not have to worry about chasing some wild strength.   We don't believe this market is capable of going straight up at this point, so there'd be plenty of opportunity to get in on this leg.   However, when the setups do present themselves, you don't want to be shy away either.   Bottom line, we are feeling very confident and comfortable with what may come the next couple of months.   Summer trading, once again may become fun.


Good trend in tact...

Every couple of trading days,  we get a day where the Bears seem to have an upper hand in the early going,  ONLY to give back all their gains in the final hour.    In fact,  this isn't a new episode we witnessed today, but a pretty consistent show that comes every few days for a couple of months now.   Since March,  we’ve been pointing out an underlying bid at 20MA coming in,  now it’s seemingly ~200MA levels  on day 6 over this important technical level.   We were still quite short of the 919SPX present day 200ma (7pts).    Today, overwhelmingly an underlying bid came where the breakout occurred last Monday‘s (200ma level).   Even on those days where the Bears do claim victory, a failed follow through day puts the ball right back into the Bull camp.   It’s never-ending and frustrating to say the least, for those Bears.    If this hasn't been a continuous classical buy on dip kind of rally, we don't know what is!.    In fact,  all these little mini back and forth action simply put this rally in a much healthier state than the Bears would ever hope for as we grind higher.  

Still, as we said 950, even 940+ is quite formidable for the Bulls for now without a positive catalyst.  Also,  putting the move 3pm move into context,  it was following a very low volume day to that point and the ensuing move was purely SPY  and a few other ETF’s related.    You will understand this as you look at your ‘shadow list’ and see little follow through/ little movement in individual stocks/ sectors after 3pm.   One sided move so far,  we would like confirmation by seeing some follow through action in Asian/ FTSE mkts in am before getting too excited for more, just yet.

This is, in fact, is a Bull run that gives us plenty of opportunities.   As long as you trade with the trend, not with your feeling, and not with your disagreement with the state of the economy or policy makers, you'd be doing fine so far.    Is there manipulation in this market by the market makers eg. JPM, GS or policy makers as cried by the Bears?   So what if there is!!   If you are a trader and consumed by visiting blogs to clog your mind,"blogs that clog",  you will see these useless cries.   Think about for a second,  if you have another gig to worry about other than trading and come home in the evening, what do you see?.    You see a market going up and up,  that’s all !!.  Sonner than later, you call your broker to buy!.   If you read the WSJ, your local financial print or just tune into CNBC,  you don’t hear this manipulation noise.    We are simply here to trade with the majority (trend), regardless of what the minority opinion is on the 'net'.   The most ridiculous aspect of these ‘conspiracy’ theorists,  is if they believe it sooooo’ much and are so sure it is pushing this market higher for weeks now …why do they not just trade this trend up and make money off it!.     It's a daily laughing matter to us to visit these characters when we don't have nothing better to do sitting in front our platforms for hours on in daily.  

In this market, it's not our personal opinion that matters on the bigger picture,  it's the majority of everyone else' opinion (money) that matter. 

As far as individual stock action goes, we are still finding a lot of good dip opportunities from our earnings plays.   SAFM ARUN STEC BWY GMCR.. all were making fresh highs today, some dip a little, some don‘t.   Most of the Chinese plays look buyable too on dips.   If you are uncomfortable or unsure about some of the commodity dips, then it's ok not to buy them.    After a few days of strong $USD ruckus,  we may have a good commodity linked trade back very soon.  Not counting Oil/energy plays related to(if) higher crude prices,  we'd stick to 'steels' over the other linked commod' groups.    In the meantime,  we have plenty of "sure" plays on our list that can be justified as safe dip buys, only problem is some don't dip and that's why it's essential to do quality 'stock picking' early to make the bigger dollars as has been the case with our small cap 'earnings' plays this Q.

In AMC newsflow, TXN  guided higher on a optimistic call.    We are wondering if this is a sign to come for many tech' companies.   After all, if there's some growth business segments from a big one like TXN, it has to be the same case for many other smaller players.    Basically, we don't expect TXN to be the last one to pre-announce good guidance, we already had CREE  be the first recently.   Bottom line,  the ball is seemingly never in Bears' court for long.   It’s hard to press new shorts lower and lower because it's hard to get their brothers and sisters to do so when the declines only last a few hours, or a day.   As we said, the volume is light across the tape today indicating the shorts are not confident to press new positions even when down big for a few hours.    We are hoping for some more grinding action in order to set up a more powerful leg up down the road.   Yup, still...that's our 'bullish' plan.


DJIM #26

The only trepidation you may have in trading this market is if you’re consumed by technical analysis of the SPX on a daily basis in making trade decisions.   If this continues to be the case,  traders will continue to miss opportunities heading into this earnings season.    Fortunately,  since late March on TSY news from the FED,  we said we’re going back the DJIM basics and going back to individual stocks/ sector picking concentration.  Back to our roots, yep.. back to the days of the Swamp with Lizard King and eventually as moderators for the trading forum in Rev Sharks (    Up to that FED intervention almost everyone was consumed by and fixated on the daily activity of the SPX, including us,  as long opp's were few and far between.    Many traders have stuck to this SPX trade and have missed a beautiful run in individual stocks/ sectors.   The reason we bring this up now is it has become tiresome hearing this is a boring market with little chance to make money due to the trading range last 2 mths.     Besides putting on the commodity linked stocks trade,  we thought if the market continued to act right,  enthusiasm would come back to micro /small caps, focusing on earnings.   Well,   it definitely did as the BWY  DDRX  ARUN  GMCR  ADY  EJ  CVLT  ICE  STEC  EBS  etc. dominated our DJIM platforms with big gains during the recent Q, while supposedly the market produced nothing but a chop trade.    What we’re saying is the market may become more boring in the next 2 months for many traders ,  but we’re looking forward and excited for new opportunities as companies begin to announce earnings for their June ending Q’s.    If things were better for the names listed above last Q,  we expect a slew of new stocks to come on radar with better bottom lines from a recovering economy.  

Until July 13th or so,  you should be drying up some powder in readiness for new stock buying.  You don’t want to be holding stocks that are losing steam or holding any losers if it takes up buying power.  You want to have cash on hand for fresh meat and /or continue for now to be very selective in buying. Your trading proficiency is not measured by how much trading you do,  but by your profits!.   We don't expect any fireworks until next holiday weekend,  we probably did not trade more than 3 or 4 stocks last week with PWRD, DDRX  heading into the week.    It made for a long week,  but at the end of the week it is only your P&L that matters.


Pints on us!

The solid earnings calls keep coming and the SPX keeps trotting along.  What else is new?.   To tell you the truth, unbelievably the short term outcome of SPX near 2009 highs is of little consequence to us at this stage.  Yes, that’s all the investing public is talking about as we close at a SPX‘09 high, we admit to hardly even glancing at SPX, SPY trading today.   All we see at DJIM is how well our shadow list is behaving and preparing for opportunities ahead for more Pint sized earnings on top of last Q's winners.   Okay, maybe not looking at SPX had to do in part being occupied with watching our premkt HGSI   forum post call at 3.5mln shares/ $10 that sprouted to 123 mln shares traded and a 25% gain from those levels.   But seriously, what excites us is not if the SPX breaks 956 intraday day high this week, but what possibly lies ahead as far as earnings are concerned.  What these solid earnings in the first week are telling us is we are going to get some nice EPS winners in the next 2 months.   Yes, 2 months because most Pint sized caps report for Q’s after all the Keg size stocks report.   Plus these Pint sized caps will have 1 to 2 months of better economy than the ones reporting end of June Q’s now, so earnings may be right out of the park!.  Also, remember half of these don’t even provide guidance which only makes an excellent past Q of relevance.  We should have much more than the (ININ  HITK ) so far this Q to play.

Back at DJIM farm today,  the  drunken’animals were running freely…just yesterday we said…“Even last week, we had past DJIM shadow-listed Q plays putting in new highs at some point ( STEC STAR  CVLT EJ   )”.   Today, we had a few more DJIM shadowed earning stars light up the sky, ( GMCR  PWRD  DDRX ) for 10-15% and some with new highs.  Nobody on the web can be beat that  "Fab 7”  for a few months now.  Also, if that’s not enough, recall in a Journal and later in Forum(06/24) we suggested a pre earnings move will probably come to Casinos after a member asked if it was a time to buy back than.  Well,  with earnings in a week or so these names eg  LVS, WYNN  are acting like earnings winners the past 4-5 days as prospects improve (may need a rest though).  

Even if the market falls into total darkness from something other than a solar eclipse, we have a ‘Premise’ here that's been working overtime since March and an easy to follow formula to stick to going forward.   Note, the "BAR' has been set high for the Keg sized companies by INTC, GS etc., so the big boys ahead will need to shatter numbers/guidance going forward for a great reaction.   On the other hand, if one of these misses it will lost likely be a very nice short quick intraday trade.  The good thing is our pint sized  earnings focus has "no bar" to play in.   Also, the probability a herd momentum mentality has set in and pints are the best way to cure any performance anxiety over one’s stock portfolio in years past.

Geez, just got all thirsty..luckily it's almost noon in London UK!. 



Bull Eclipse

As the other side of the globe is enjoying a once in a few hundred years event of a major Solar Eclipse, we couldn't help but wonder if the stock market, notably Nazzy days streak not seen for a decade), here is enjoying one of the rarest moment as well.    Yes, we are up again and perhaps it's getting a little tiresome?   Not a chance! :)   The only type of traders who are tired of our current rally are either in shorts or are in cash.    In fact, by visiting a few Bear blogs, you'd be able to find a communities of traders who are filled with disgust and anger with this 'Bull eclipse'  over their Bear dens.    Fortunately, they are the minority at this point, many are just a furball of their old selves and others are in the closet crossdressing as we speak.   We admit that we often visit such blogs as some of you seem to as well.   We do that not visit because we are looking for short plays or trading ideas.    Instead, we simply visit those Bearish sites to get an idea what them Bears are thinking and what their case of a trading argument is.    If a Bear is considered a Bull's enemy, then we have to understand our enemy to the fullest in order to beat them in this game.    Frankly,  it's been a scene of chaos at the Bear sites lately.    Many of the da’ Bears are self proclaimed very good technicians who make mince meat of the naïve or inexperienced traders looking for an edge.    However, at DJIM, we always believe that charting is a supplemental, extension to trading.   Understanding the big picture and understanding the market mentality, individual niches is much more important than looking at charts blindly for a trade.   Most importantly, we’ve always believed the first thing you need is to discover a good fundamental stock and than you chart to your hearts content as a guide for R/S levels.   This is where most of these Bear technical places go array.   Most only look at charts to begin with, probably night after night going over scans alphabetically till they see something that gets their Fibs excited.   They don’t care what stock ABC business niche is or care if eg.earnings are tomorrow.   We’ve seen humorous things such as going long a MOO etf trade, while shorting individual Chem fertilizers stocks and /or the corn futs in the group because charts painted such a picture at the same time. 

As we have been saying, what happens few months from now is anyone's guess.   Bears may argue that we may eventually head for a nasty downfall when all of the things unfold.    This may potentially happen, but come on, seriously, what does a hypothetical theory have anything to do with what's happening NOW?     It doesn't take a genius to figure out what's happening with the market these days.  ASK..Goldmans , Credit Suisse calls this week.  CS actually has just reversed their call into equities from their June call !.  You don`t see CS often in the news like GS-JPM, but believe us they are an integral big player in the marketplace.   

Yes,  the market has been up for more than a few days too many and we may very well pause here for a pullback.   So what?  The Bulls are in charge.  This current rally is the result of people believing and acting that things are improving from credit to corporate.  Yes, the consumer in US is behind, but as recently quoted here, "Build it, he will come".   Some of the major companies we know, have come out with some reports that handily beat the expectation and guided well.    We have discussed this "beat the bar" effect during the last few days, so we are not going to go there again.

Today's EPS winner has to be JDAS  alerted AMC yesterday!   We don't post # reports regularly here because this way you do some of your own DD before making a trading decision.   For those new or inexperienced this is the only way to learn/ decipher and understand what looks like a good trade and what isn't in the future.   We just have to say that the report is that good and that's the only lead we'll give on most plays.    As far as DJIM's strategy goes when it comes to earning plays, we are looking for those companies that delivers a big and positive earning surprise.  Unfortunately, if you just go on a 'headline' number wire cross you will sooner than later be finished as a trader. It's not that simple, you need to snoop around a headline number.  JDAS falls under the category and so did, notably GMCR STEC from last Q.     These are the best kind of earning plays we like because not only they are small enough to run up, they are also liquid enough because many institutions will own them.     On the other hand, eps play such as DDRX, BWY, ININ, HITK are always welcome to our list because they always have the "potential"  to pull a big one due to their float after the discovery process unfolds amongst traders.   In the case of DDRX, it pulled an amazing run-up.   In regards to MAIL post today, due to its thinness, it  may or may not do anything.  You don’t buy a stock like this to put in your top 5-10 holds at anytime.   Just like last Q reporting, we are creating a list of plays to keep an eye on (ININ HITK JDAS MAIL this Q so far) and hope for a portion to be become winners like last Q’s list.    Some will fall off the list as we progress, new ones will be added and some like STEC GMCR STAR, we’ll all be trading into the next Q.    These new ones, we now can follow on the charts, keeping an eye on such things as 9ema pullback to possibly buy again or for the first time.   In addition, we are also paying attention to 'group' earning plays.   A specialty group from a particular sector or country may get some hot attention if things turn for the better.   China plays fall into this group and as well as any commodity groups we might trade. 

We had a caution on commods/machinery trade today after CAT  up ~12% premkt pulled the group (JOYG BUCY ) up premarket as we may have “Johny-come-lately” playing here and so we may get sell the news after what we saw in China.  It didn't spill into the overall market, but, note banks( regionals) are not helping this market to break 956 roadblock today.  We can`t have BIOTECH outperform these last few days, most likely if a PB occurs here it will be because of Banks-Commods noise here.  

Most of these 'Machinary/Industrials' gapped and all lost roughly ~$3 off top as seen by JOYG chart below.   As a whole the commodity linked groups/stocks were mixed, notably BTU  (-5%) pulled coals group.   Considering, BTU is top of crop, some parts to their call will seemingly weigh more on other coal stocks down the road than itself.   Tomorrow morning is quite important to these groups as a number of each groups leaders report, so we remain patient here, but not confident any individual and/or group earning plays will emerge,  more importantly to us is what they say will give us signs for the market.

Bottom line,  there's many potential earning surprises from pint sizes down the road and we have to absolutely capture all of them.   It is our mission and our goal for this quarter.    This market may be a little overheated due to market's enthusiasm with earning reports from big companies.   If we get a pullback in the coming days, we'd be sure to get the latest, including last Q's earning plays on the cheap.


Bumpy 'holidays' for bears ahead?

Over the weekend, we couldn't help but notice that the general media is a bit worried about the current state of this market.    There were numerous articles citing that we could be getting a bumpy ride over the next few weeks.    This is due to the fact we had two down days last weeks and that was enough to bring out the skeptics once again.     We don't want to read the media comments after today's action, however.    Frankly, we are just a little tired of the media lately and all the back and forth.  This includes every wishy washy regular guests on CNBC that switch sides on a daily basis.   There are many reasons that caused the market go up/gap in strong fashion, but we think the biggest reason is the reason we've been saying all along.   There's underlying bid from the money managers who like to see this market higher, as oppose to lower into year end.

Headlines are plenty today, the weak USD due to dovish comments, China growth forecast of 10% in 4Q, potential FOMC minutes containing upward eco. growth forecasts and European markets were substantially higher due to German/ Eurozone PMI‘s (we noted Euro data as a potential catalyst this week.)    All of these contributed to a quick rise in equity market today as 1100 and 1005 resistance got pummeled.    Are we surprised?   Nope!   Just like on a down day, people need reasons to explain the market action.   For DJIM, a day like today does not shock us because we're 'Bull' prepared due to expectation of a potential underlying bid as this time around 1085.   If you're not a ' Bull' and preparing for a bid, you miss most gains due to a gap like today if you're not invested.   Still, we do have to point out that not all of the stocks were enjoying the kind of gains the indicies are suggesting as the USD decoupled for many commodity linked stocks.   MELI  and AIXG  ( a DJIM add last week) were outperformers though.  Big caps have obviously benefited from the broad market gain, some of the smaller stuff may still play catch up.

Then there is the coffee frenzy.   PEET  was originally a stock we played due to their announced "acquisition" of DDRX, (a stock we covered since high single digits.)    Remember, a while back we concluded that the price PEET offered to buy DDRX is considered an outright steal.   Today, GMCR , the other favourite EPS/coffee stock here thought the same and outbid PEET.   Naturally this type of an event causes a sell off as a bidding war is a negative for the original bidder.   PEET, raised the offer, but will probably lose DDRX all together was the sentiment.     This superior GMCR offer puts PEET in a very difficult situation.    Despite the fact PEET announced to raise their offer with a mixture of cash/share, it still doesn't come close as good as GMCR's offer of ALL CASH.    As of the closing price today,  PEET's offer is effectively lower than GMCR's offer on DDRX.    Why are these two fighting for DDRX?   We have discussed here many times before, it's all about the growth of k-cup.    In our opinion, the bidding war, if it continues, will be unfavourable to PEET and we decide it's no longer an attractive play based on the current event.    At this point, it's even hard to say if anybody ELSE may come into the picture and give DDRX a fresh bid.     You have to remember, the bidding war between the two may actually draw out other potential interested party.     As it stands, even at $30/shr, it's only $172 million.    The reason we gave this a lengthy paragraph is that we wanted everyone to understand our logic to go long PEETin the first place and why we think PEET is no longer a play going forward.  This is not a 'weakness' , we buy, as it’s news flow related.    Do we still like GMCR?   Yes, of course, especially now that it has a chance to grab DDRX.

One of our readers also mentioned SEED,  a stock that doubled up today off volume that's four times its own float.    As of right now, we don't really know the long term impact of this particular announcement.   Bascially there's no telling of what it means for SEED as far as dollar amount is concerned.    What we do know, however, is that this stock may just be the favourite stock of the day traders and speculators for this holiday week.    It might be worth to trade this thing for as long as the story lasts, but ideally it's best to stick to what you know heading into year end.

This is a shorted trading week and many traders are away on holiday as we all know.    Today's volume is relatively low, but it's still pretty decent given the circumstance.    It might not be realistic to expect this market to break out of recent high cleanly, but we do think there are some trading opportunities worth participating in.


DJIM 48, 2009

First of all, we wish everyone just had a great thanksgiving holiday.    The past week was "supposed" to be a quiet week where the focus was supposed to be on turkey as oppose to the market.    Instead, we had this ‘little ;)’ announcement from Dubai that it's planning to delay the debt payment of its state controlled company, Dubai World.    As we know with news rocked the western world,  hopefully you didn’t react like “Tiger Woods” by panicking and fender bender-ing a fire hydrant and a tree early that morning!   Both the European and Asian market took a hefty beating and our futures pointed to a nasty ripple open for Friday as the sudden return of ‘credit risk‘ returned seemingly.   They definitely picked a right time to do this, eh?

The actual ‘leverage’ exposure, as far as the US banks is concerned, is very minimal and we think this is containable.    The fact we had a huge gap down at the open on Friday morning was inevitable due to the overseas weakness.    Also, there's also the so called "flight to safety" trade where people taking on safer investment while losing some risky ones.    For DJIM, we had one question in our mind this holiday.     Didn't anyone see this coming from Dubai?     To us, Dubai is nothing more than a glorious version of "Vegas".    With the number of projects they have going on over there, they'd better hope that they can attract more than just the rich folks.    By now, we know that most of the exposure are from the European banks and that is something reassuring to know for the U.S. market.

The biggest question right now, come Monday, is whether this Dubai news would continue to shake investors' confidence in the equity market and flee to other safe assets.    If Friday was a good indication of how things would come in the coming week, we are pretty confident things won't be bad.    The volume on Friday looks pretty good, given the fact the market only opened for half a day.    Had the market opened for the full day,  we would have some very healthy volume and turnover.    This to us, means that many folks were being pulled from their holiday and back onto their ‘blackberry’ trading desks to deal with the market.    No doubt, many folks saw this as an opportunity to buy into weakness while others would see this as a reason to park it in for the year.      For DJIM, we see this weakness as an opportunity as we don't believe U.S. market participants would be as concerned about Dubai as the European players.     On the other hand,  there's really no other alternative investments to pile your money into.   The so called "safety assets" don't really earn you much and if this Dubai debacle turns out to be nothing but a short term manageable headache, we believe the funds will flow back into the equity market.

As far as plays go, some of our latest plays behaved really well on Friday.   RINO and TRIT  even managed to tack on some respectable gains.    Other plays such as AIXG, CLF, CTRP, MELI,  GMCR... all traded as if the market was down just a couple of points.     Coming Monday,  we'll have most traders back from the holiday and we'll see how they digest the recent events.    We also have data from this Black Friday sales event which will give traders plenty of catalyst to vote their opinion.   In addition,  we have job report in the coming week,  so this will be a pivotal week for the remainder of the trading year.