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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London, U.K

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Entries in IPGP (6)


A-Team wins the coin toss!

Kick off time came a little early today with AAPL giving what many hoped for at the show!.  You couldn't read a piece of press without the question on everybody''s mind...What will AAPL do?. The anticipation was there and the traders were waiting for the news.  Nothing like a little spark to the techs that need to lead this market.  You can't live on Tires and Rubbers being the leaders as in the past sessions much longer.  Mr. Jobs you may now call it Apple Ltd,  Apple Inc. or Banana anything as long as you keep throwing the toys out.  We talk a lot about momentum here, nearly 120 million shares is definitely it.  UBS lifted the tech sector yesterday and AAPL lifted it today.  Let's hope we can get some conviction in buying techs.

We've heard ramblings from analysts that aluminum might be somewhere to go in 2007, so maybe it's no big surprise the official EPS kick off went all swell with Alcoa giving a shiny picture AH.  The stock is up nearly 5% AH.  Nothing like a look in the past and getting some ERS dusted off, maybe some CENX too for tomorrow.   Always look for something that can piggyback an Alcoa type play, the secondary plays are often more fruitful.  Same goes for those that will feed off the AAPL didn't have to look far as a reader tossed out a play out of our backyard in SNCR on the Forum.  Last look before calling it a day, SNCR was trading at $15, now it sits in the 15.60's. 

Last night,  we discussed the need for new stocks, new plays!.  If anything these events give out a few secondary plays that should get some traders interested.  Still, today was not without a few other things working off DJIM notes that provided some nice opportunities.

VOL, which we introduced on our last forum has come back with vengeance today.  It beat estimates handily and we started to trade this off the pullback around $41 as soon as it looked like it would hold its morning gains.  Soon after our mention it broke the days high over 42 and added a few points more into the close.  This is a volatile play but when it gets momo it can give you a helluva a ride.

OPTM, mentioned pre market caught the usual wind and from just over $25 hit a high of $26.60's, hey if Cramer gives you 5% take it and say see you next time.  One good thing about OPTM is most of you have played it here and should have a better feel for it.  Its not that big of a surprise it gave it all up by end of day.  Not so good to finish at low of day for any stock, but this one is quite the choppy trader so it just might have legs again very soon.   Off this ' triple play' business, we alerted another at $25 that has been talked as a triple play threat, even if its robotics/lasers are used elsewhere mostly..... IPGP a recent IPO that has held steady after gapping on IPO day and now by the end of day looks even better on the charts.

OSIR,  the FDA play from last night to watch. We picked some up again as it looked to finish near the high. Maybe it has a another day in it or two.

So there are plenty of new holds tonight..AAPL,IPGP,SNCR,VOL,OSIR

AMK which almost kissed $20 after being in the low 17's a few days back and MFW which had an incredible snap back today show that quality companies trading well can do some fancy dancin'. Most importantly, how irrelevant it is to know exactly what prices we enter these or any stock at.   We give you a stock to watch for a potential trade, some move soon, some don't...some you just better keep around so you can catch a move like MFW did the next day for 3 points today.  In both of these stocks readers could've had better prices than the prices we got for our first bite!.   Don't concern yourselves about exact prices of our entries on stocks, just make sure you're making money....hopefully on the same stocks we share with you.


This is more like it.....a little conviction

Of course, we are referring to the various strong action from the DJIM stocks.   In fact, you may very well call it a DJIM market today.    In our opinion, today is definitely the best trading day so far in this new year.    Sure, we don't have any crazy movers out there but that doesn't stop our readers from throwing out a few..CBLI,  but we are very encouraged to see the broad action from many many stocks.   Ok lets start with the run-downs.....we'll skip the first of 5 from last night new crop, AAPL .....

VOL, we had to put this one on first because after a breathtaking run-up yesterday, we got another speechless run-up today.   So, to answer some of your "entry pt" questions, when it comes to "EARNING" play, it doesn't even matter what price, as long as it's entered within a reasonable time frame after the mention.    So what's next?   Again, have you forgotten to take some profit today?   Strong move like this one exhibited always pauses quicker than you can blink.    If it goes a lot higher, we'd be glad that we still hold some and would likely add some back.   Again, the idea is that you'd never want to have an idea of getting into a hot play with a full position at the beginning of a run-up and sell the "full" position at the absolute top.    That kind of "timing" mentality is not only insane, but risky as well.

OSIR, we were discussing among ourselves earlier that this one could be a slow crawler.   For some reason, someone up there heard our chat and decided it's time to teach our "arrogance" a little lesson.  So it ran with very good volume.   We did not complain about the quick change of pace in action so we quickly rejoiced the idea by adding more in the 27s.   If that's the way they want to play, so be it.

IPGP, well we are glad someone noticed that big block after the close.   It just goes to show that ppl other than us, ppl with deep pockets, and probably institutions are interested in this stock.    Time to get in was definitely yesterday and time to add is today....$25-28 move in 1.5 days ain't bad!

SNCR, this one needs no introduction and we were the first ones probably to trade this back in the 9 range. lol   Putting aside all of the speculation of whether this apple iphone will take off or not, just take a look at the volume.   This definitely puts this one on map among many many momentum institutions, if there's such a thing called that.    We don't think the run-up is over right away, judging by its action today.   Besides, this one does have pretty good earning.

DLB, ok we were actually pretty bored with this one lately, until today that is.   So apparently it broke out, with decent volume.   Will we give it some faith and believe there's some follow through?  Hell yeah and if we aren't being faithful in this kind of market, when will we ever be faithful?

MEND, this one was a late purchase for us and we did not have time to alert our members.      Pretty strong breakout and we like its action.  Again, don't worry about entry.  It mattered little on yesterdays 5 new holds. At a point today they averaged about a 10% gain off yesterdays close.

In fact, there are quite few other stocks that did well today and we are just not going to go into every single one of them.   Just go through all of your DJIM watchlist and you'd know which ones we are talking about.    The market is definitely kicking into a "good mood" gear.    With earnings coming up and as long as some good reports come up ala VOL, we'd be in business and it'll be busy enough for us to trade through the earning season.   Looking forward to trading tomorrow....



VOL,VOLT INFO SCI at $51, IPGP, IPGP Photonics Corp. at $25, NWK, Network Equipment Technolgies Inc, at $6.80

What has DJIM been up to so far in 2007?.  Same as 2006, we are rolling along!.  Here are some of the plays recently enjoyed by members, but it is not all!.  Of course, many new plays happening are for our members eyes only.  Our FORUM is kicking with participation from other traders giving heads up to potential moves intraday...Our ALERTS/Updates are cranking, our nightly CHART analysis updates on closely followed DJIM stocks are giving our readers another way to look at a potential trade, entry and/or exit for the next day and beyond.

DJIM ALERTS, VOL- ''....Trading a little VOL here'....' was part of an alert 3 pack inc. AAPL to DJIM members at $51. STOCK RUNS to 64 by 3rd day!

Nightly Journal   VOL-"This  is a volatile play but when it gets momo it can give you a helluva a ride".  January 9th....."Again, have you forgotten to take some profit today?   Strong move this one exhibited always pauses quicker than you can blink", January 10th after 2 days of run...VOL, this one probably overwhelmed the most optimistic traders given its 3 day action.   Again, we are not saying today is the end of this run-ups but it does feel a little tired at this point ...and walk away with another 3-4pts today on the full lot you played.  This is what we did reducing our exposure and now are in a wait and see mode with a very slim position, January 11th after day 3.  DAY 4, the drop from $64 to 53's. !!
IPGP-   January 9, 2007 at 01:29PM  $25 in DJIM alerts,  recent ipo, accumulating some for sunnier days . Lasers, triple play broadband angle following OPTM today idea...even if is not the majority of business" ..........FORUM section..."IPGP has held ground at IPO day prices and this 'triple play' broadband hype is creeping into some names. IPGP might get some of that attention. rather accumulate some before"..before a breakout!.    STOCK breakout and runs over 10% from 24.90's  to 27.96 the next day. A 3 pt move in a day and half.
Forum, Cramer liked it at IPO time....IPG Photonics (IPGP:Nasdaq), pull the trigger. Buy your first tranche. This is a laser company that could work here because it is industrial with growth, and that's awfully hard to find. I was thinking that this stock could open at $24 and then trade down from here, but I don't know how much it can go down. I'd bet this stock will get a lot of focus as a replacement for a Parker Hannifin or an Eaton or even an Illinois Took Works, because people want growth badly and they want it in the factory.   We like this stock at DJIM and the growth story it represents.  An undiscovered stock so far that got some attention last week on the breakout.
NWK- Monday, January 8, 2007 at 09:46AM in DJIM alerts

Put this on your watch for a potential trade, raised revenue guidance for this Q and year Friday. Its a tech with about 70%instit. but has a nice chart.  6.80's     Journal     NWK was one that had what many like.  First, it quietly pre-announced a very good Q revenue based and upped the years growth to 17-20% from 10%.   Well, we know what we would do if this was a EPS report, we'd jump on it if it included a similar EPS growth prospect.   We also know these don't last a day, so we thought a second day follow through might happen and it did very nicely on what looks like a volume high day.   Everybody likes a stock under $10, this was the other factor in thinking this had more space to run.  These stocks are not what we look for in a long term DJIM relationship, it's simply a date and one you got lucky on! 

NVX climbed  to $7.50's as a short term trade idea, those that have held beyond, $7.80's has been in the cards and another 10%+ trade.


All focus on AAPL tonight..

Well,  it definitely looked like there's really no other interest to keep traders from staying up till the end.     AAPL's earning is out and now what?   At this point, we think it's more of a company specific news even though the strong shipment of ipod may spill over to some other component players but we are not going to get too cute at this point.    What was anticipated was also probably what was expected.    There are very few setups worth mentioning today, so we'll tackle a couple of the ones we like and a couple of others from the watchlist.

HMIN, perhaps we are not the only ones anticipating this breakout so the end result although somewhat encouraging early, but not spectacular near the end.    One thing for sure, this is among one of the widely held Chinese stocks out there.   The close is nowhere near the high and it was definitely dragged down by the poor index action.    We will call this breakout still but we aren't going in with any sizes. There are lots of breakouts, reversals your stocks may see, but it is always a good idea to take the gift in some size before the overall market catches up to your stock and diminishes the breakout or reversal gains.  HMIN and MEND are two examples today of this.

ZOLL, this is a little rocket that would go nuts off any good news.  Unfortunately, most of the gains were achieved within the first 10 min. of trading and it literally spend the rest of the day digesting the early gains.    It's very difficult to play these and unless you get in pre-mkt or right at the open, there's really not that much of an opportunity.  But, if you're an early starter, your day could be done by 9:35.   Basically, you could make a living off these early bird specials.  Of course, we have to also look at the prospect to see if this sets up a new leg up.   At this point, it's not very clear whether how much of the news is already priced into the action so we are less inclined to chase any more.    If an opportunity presents it self for a nice setup, we definitely will.   There are hundreds of releases every morning, we try to pick out what we think is best for you to closely watch, maybe get a starter position if there is some interest. Today, this was clearly the case as the stock traded in the $66's-67's pre market.

 PTT, is another example of a pre market note from last week that is doing well.  We are back trading some.

MR, now perhaps this is the way they do things over there.   Updating their guidance with a positive outlook while sneak in with a secondary offering at the same time.    From a co's point of view, they timed it right and damage is minimized.  For us the traders, we just hate to see the stock get derailed from some news like that.    This by no means the play is over.   We just think it may need additional time to churn over this "secondary news" or after they announce the pricing.   11 million additional shares is a big deal, in case those who aren't familiar with these sort of things.    Like any other plays with secondary offerings, this news will linger over the stock price for a while and we find it hard that it will challenge the old high any time soon.   Of course, anything can happen but we are going with our past experience for now and going light with this thing.  This is an example of letting the market dictate the action.   Initially, we had no clue of the secondary but the market told us something is not right.  We thought there might be cheap shares, just not because of an offering and small downgrade.

VOL, to play the bounce or not to play?   If you got a fast enough of a trigger, there's probably some intraday opportunity there to provide some quick action.   For those of us who are looking for a meaningful and sustained movement, we don't think it's ready yet.    Those monster 3 days rally followed by an even more wicked sell off is something that would keep some traders away from.   At this point, we are saying we don't trust this thing, yet.   There are also some longs who may be trapped to and are dying to get out.   We'll need to give it some more time.

IPGP,  played with yesterdays reversal some more and now finds itself back over 9ema.  Nice if you took the 23's, 24's yesterday, but we're not sold back on it just yet at these prices in this market.

Again, earning season is in the very early stage and we have many many more companies to report.  Most of the companies which fit our trading criteria have yet to report.    We are hopeful that we'll see some more good report this quarter and give use some real gem to play with.



What can we learn from today?..

Basically, on a day like today, we have to identify clearly what's working and what's not working.    So lets start with what's working.    The two domestic stocks that stand out the most are the two that just reported great earnings.  Of course, we are referring to CCF and USAP.   In our opinion those two had the best earning report, so far in the earning season, among the small caps.   But then again, the earning season for small caps stretches a couple of months and we are pretty much still at the beginning of it.    So the point is that it still all comes down to earnings.   Plays that are great earning driven would have a much better chance to withstand the kind of market today.   Sometimes, as it's prove, they would even go as far as going the opposite direction of this market and shine.     So what else is working today?  DJIM Foreign stocks!    Yup, that's right, and we don't even have to point them out.     So what's not working then?   Just about everything else.     The market was quite the red, but if you have a screen of DJIM was pretty green today.   What's good about today's action is that it's very easy and obvious to pick the good ones from the bad ones.    When you can easily identify the winning stocks, then you can choose the setup that you are most comfortable with, or perhaps the safest setup to enter for a trade or two.     Let's go over a few stocks here...

CCF,  we made it very clear on day one that we really like its earning report.  In fact, we think the combination of its earning and its market cap gives this play a valuation mismatch.    Of course, we think it should be worth a lot more than what's currently trading at.    Since we don't have a crystal ball, we still can not just rely and act on our beliefs alone but rather we have to focus more on the action.   The action of a stock behaviour has to confirm our belief before we can truly comfortably act it out the way we wanted.    Once we have identified such play, then it's up to your trading instinct to make the best out of it.    In this case, it's clear that we all should be adding last couple of days.    Last night, we noted the line up might form in 9 ema area, today it did with a nice volume stick.   With 2.33 million in float, we think it doesn't take many 80k to 90k volume "up" day to give this one a reasonable valuation.   The trend is definitely up and we are playing aggressively on any dips.     

USAP, this is another low floater which perhaps has a valuation mismatch.   Today's advance does not surprise us and we are also playing aggressively on the dip camp.    Keep in mind, no stocks go up forever and we are less inclined to chase in this weak market environment unless the stock is fresh out of a breakout.    What we meant is that compare USAP to CCF, USAP is a bit stretched at this point and we are sure there willl be opportunities to add at a good price.  The sell off Friday provided such this morning for many.  Well if it goes up another few points from this point without stopping, we won't be upset either with our current position.   The point is, no need to be greedy when the mkt is seemingly in a bad mood right now.

AMK, we alerted this one late in the day b/c we feel this one is setting up nicely.   With less than two week before the earning date, we feel this one has a chance to get a pre-earning run-up going.    We have seen what this stock is capable of and we are willing to give it a chase here.

IPGP, we've talked about this stock being discovered, today was the start you could say as the brokers came out with their initiations on it. Some big names behind this IPO, one of them MER gave a BUY rating as well.  We're still out but we are watching. 


DJIM #5 2007

Well, it's been a pretty decent earning week for us and opportunities were there to grab.    That is, if you didn't get distracted by the index action.    During the earning season,  it's rare for the market to pullback significantly since there are always funds/institutions waiting for their favourite stocks to report.   At the end of an earning season, however, things may be different as there aren't that many things to look forward to for another three months.   By then, interest rate talk, economic number and as well as the seasonality will be big factors dictating the market movement.  Still, there are small caps that periodically surprise with the timing of their releases, so it's almost earning season 12 months a year for us.     Well, that's how we've been viewing things.   

During the earning season, the only thing in our opinion that should be dominating your trade/watch list are the earning plays.    Basically keep an eye on those that have had good potential of releasing strong earning and keep a tag on those unfamiliar names that just reported strong earnings.   Pretty soon, your watchlist will expand from a couple of dozen to literally few dozen stocks.     Again, the point of having this kind of watchlist is to simply making trading decisions easy for you.   Basically, when you have a list full of strong earning stocks, it's just a matter of picking the ones with the best momentum, best charts, best float and best sector.   Fortunately, we are here to give everyone a heads up on what we think are the best so we can all be on the same page and trade the most out of those potential winners.

Here are some of the stocks of interest from past week....

HRBN, so why start off with this BB stock you ask?   Simply put, going toward the end of Friday, this one had the best momentum.    We alerted on the fact that it's going to be listed on Naz on Jan. 31th and given the quick glance of its fundamental and float, we thought it has a very good shot to make some good gains at $10.   Well, an hour later picked it up and we hope some of you have picked up in the low 10s.  We said the yahoo's could spread the story quickly, that's why we wanted to get this out to you first.    Volume on Friday is still a tiny 200k and given the fever Chinese stocks have been getting lately, we think this one is far from being discovered.   Float is 5 mill and co. is profitable for a few quarters in a row.    Not much else you can ask for.    We think it should get some more upside action before and after the Nasdaq listing.

USAP, buy the dips!   This strategy works the best with strong earning play.   If you missed the first run from 39 to 43, getting in at the low 40 is not a bad thing.   We added some on Thursday and now the stock looks better than before.    It showed that there's interest and support when the stock dips.  

CCF,  maybe this one doesn't have the kind of crazy momentum of some of the Chinese stocks but we just like the way it is.   The point is, this is the kind of stock where you don't have to check every single tick and knowing that it'll probably make new high sooner or later.

HMIN, we think this one is definitely getting more and more interest everyday.   The IBD profile we noted Friday before the bell sure helped the cause.  It's no longer a simple Chinese play anymore, it might be an Olympic play as well as IBD noted.    As long as the major trend line does not get violated, we'd buy some on the dips and sell some on strength.    If you have a fast trigger, you can definitely buy on a breakout and make a point or two that way.   This one is still very much in play.

TRCR, we think we have written enough on this one and we are keeping a very close eye on this one.   We'd like to add some in the low 6s but if it doesn't come down, we'd be just as happy adding some on strength.

VARI RESP VTRU ENR,  how we play these earning plays are simple.  We get a starter position in each one and add to the strongest one.   If one position lags, cut it lose and add the funds to the stronger ones.   This actually remind us of a race where you get to bet on all of the horses.  The only difference is that it's rare you lose on any horse since they are all winners to begin with.  Here, we are playing with more institutional money and sometimes the trend is easiest to pick up.  VTRU, besides the EPS number it is also a speculative takeover target, for you home gamers of the dating scene they are of the Lavalife site and others.  lol. $50 are the digits being thrown around.

NWK, this was a play on pre-announced earnings. Usually, they sell off once the numbers are publically released but for whatever reason this one keeps staying strong and the action just seems right.   We're set up here and looking to add more on a break.  It got painted down at the close and some sellers wanted to get out for the weekend, so we'll see what it does early tomorrow before proceeding further.

CCOI, our last alert on it said there were some favorable ramblings on the CLEC sec including TWTC.  TWTC had a very nice Friday and we are looking for more out of CCOI on TWTC heels.

ABM, is back in the picture. One look at the chart shows we could be looking at another test of the highs and a further break.

IPGP, this is looking better on the chart with a close over $26 and as posted by a member in the forum this company is starting to get recognized for its growth earning potential. This is the discovery we talked about...slowly happening.

Bascially in breaking down what we have is quite simple.  Our sector play in Aluminum, we have CENX that is up 5 pts since we touched on the subject on AA's earning.  We have USAP, as our steel play with earning.  So you want to keep an eye on the whole sec action with these.  On the cheap speculative trading side, we have a TRCR and HRBN.  There are new earning plays like RESP, VTRU, ENR to test out and hopefully see them become long term plays.  And there is the old reliable DJIM recycling program working with the HMIN, CCOI's of the trading world.

Just a note... the market is a complex dynamic with uncertainity at every turn.  What we do here is trade on emotion, mostly what our gut(s) is telling us might work or not and we react to it.   We trade when and what we feel gives us the best probability at a successful trade, we don't expect you to have this gut as for many of you its not your full time leave that to us and worry only about proper risk management of your money.  You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see which direction our selections go first,  if anything work on your timing so you can get the most out of a stock.