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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK  

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Entries in STAR (2)


...little blue pills

We’ll keep it tidy into Friday’s trade as there is not much we can say,  we haven’t said the past week or this month at lows.  We’ll ignore the Roubini wire cross (later rebuffed) that was credited with the 130pm lift off.  We saw other positives earlier (neg headlines..NOK EPS  shrugged off, CIT  noise again muted) and just before the wire cross (FDX  exploding over 200ma).   Besides,  what anyone says at this point is irrelevant to us!.  Why?.  We’ve believed one thing and we’ve stuck to not being held hostage since NFP report that brought down the house of green shoot cards and pessimism spread like wildfire..we said starting July 6th…“NFP…only a cautious bump as the world’s economies are not held hostage by one U.S payroll data point.  The manufacturing output bounce is still the focus with earnings around the corner to potentially carry weight for the recovery”.  So, nobody can say anything about recession, recovery blah blah…to change our minds and how to trade in the meantime.  In many respects, our 'The Premise'  trading methodology is stll holding true from late March.    If we had swayed any with the market pessimism at/near July lows, we wouldn’t have said what we said in (DJIM #28) and therefore, prepared for what has ensued this week.

A side note...It’s interesting and a good exercise to go back now to around July 6th and see how things played out… a standard correction of 10% on the dot to 869 the day after we noted such, the 2nd re-test of 869 mid day soon and that ‘Golden Cross’ thingy.  You only learn from experience as with anything and we can only say that we/you will and always respect some of these historical/ technical lessons 1-10-20 years from now.   One thing is to read hundreds of pages on trading, another is to experience to them first hand!.  Speaking for myself (Demi), I’ve never touched a trading book,…just picked up pieces off the street you can say, including off Jon and BT.   It’s the StreetSmart's trading book you can say, you’ll probably become a better trader off a psychology book(s) than any trading book(s).

So..what we’ve seen this week is corporate reports not  being hostage by a single July NFP report.  Why would they be?  Think about it logically.   The reports keep coming in solid as witnessed AMC today.  It’s been a steady stream.  China GDP  didn’t slow down last night because of NFP, did it?.  The breadth of the market has been a key to watch on this move, 4th impressive ratio today.   Performance anxiety(PA) pill is working!!.  Strong equities= weak $USD= commodity linked trade (even though, we think coal linked are due for a whipping down the road because of energy divergence).  Of course, China data helps commods as well.   Only slight negative is the move in afternoon was a SPY-ETF's-SPX fut motivated move with little participation from individual equities, but on the other hand individual stocks should digest some of these gains.

Oh boy...would we love a pause, a pullback now, but the market is overdosing on those little blue (PA) pills and wants to go all night and day, so who knows!  We'd continue to love our techs on some weakness from last Q..notably STEC  boom boom today..RVBD, STAR.   So far in this Q, ININ , didn`t need to consolidate as it's got caught up in the mkt tape, we had CSIQ  in forum premarket at 13 pop 8-9% for a quick trade.   HITK , only drawback is its a pharma and those usually dont' have a earning momo' shelf life, but in this market going forward, you may well be able to sell " **** in a shoebox" and get away with it.   We'll see.   Anyways, we're going to be more selective now (go earnings plays forward or scattered fast trade ideas like CSIQ) and go bigger in size on less plays to take advantage of the exuberance.  This way any real market quick downturn here will not include our cash profits.   Simply,  if we get a small cap earning surprise, it should not matter to that stock if the market is down 300 pts at the open or AMC when it's report is released.

Unfortunately,  if mainstream media-analysts get bullish now, we'll have PA investors jumping on the bed, climbing, chasing the SP names and so who knows how fast this emotional trading takes to break 956.   Most importantly here to us is the mood has changed!!.  This is all we ask for going forward as summer lows might not even be 869, but higher at that 884SPX futs level we busted the other day.  A good mood will pay dividends to what we eagerly await and that is the best part…micro small cap earning play possibilities, which will slowly start to come out as we go into July end.


Pints on us!

The solid earnings calls keep coming and the SPX keeps trotting along.  What else is new?.   To tell you the truth, unbelievably the short term outcome of SPX near 2009 highs is of little consequence to us at this stage.  Yes, that’s all the investing public is talking about as we close at a SPX‘09 high, we admit to hardly even glancing at SPX, SPY trading today.   All we see at DJIM is how well our shadow list is behaving and preparing for opportunities ahead for more Pint sized earnings on top of last Q's winners.   Okay, maybe not looking at SPX had to do in part being occupied with watching our premkt HGSI   forum post call at 3.5mln shares/ $10 that sprouted to 123 mln shares traded and a 25% gain from those levels.   But seriously, what excites us is not if the SPX breaks 956 intraday day high this week, but what possibly lies ahead as far as earnings are concerned.  What these solid earnings in the first week are telling us is we are going to get some nice EPS winners in the next 2 months.   Yes, 2 months because most Pint sized caps report for Q’s after all the Keg size stocks report.   Plus these Pint sized caps will have 1 to 2 months of better economy than the ones reporting end of June Q’s now, so earnings may be right out of the park!.  Also, remember half of these don’t even provide guidance which only makes an excellent past Q of relevance.  We should have much more than the (ININ  HITK ) so far this Q to play.

Back at DJIM farm today,  the  drunken’animals were running freely…just yesterday we said…“Even last week, we had past DJIM shadow-listed Q plays putting in new highs at some point ( STEC STAR  CVLT EJ   )”.   Today, we had a few more DJIM shadowed earning stars light up the sky, ( GMCR  PWRD  DDRX ) for 10-15% and some with new highs.  Nobody on the web can be beat that  "Fab 7”  for a few months now.  Also, if that’s not enough, recall in a Journal and later in Forum(06/24) we suggested a pre earnings move will probably come to Casinos after a member asked if it was a time to buy back than.  Well,  with earnings in a week or so these names eg  LVS, WYNN  are acting like earnings winners the past 4-5 days as prospects improve (may need a rest though).  

Even if the market falls into total darkness from something other than a solar eclipse, we have a ‘Premise’ here that's been working overtime since March and an easy to follow formula to stick to going forward.   Note, the "BAR' has been set high for the Keg sized companies by INTC, GS etc., so the big boys ahead will need to shatter numbers/guidance going forward for a great reaction.   On the other hand, if one of these misses it will lost likely be a very nice short quick intraday trade.  The good thing is our pint sized  earnings focus has "no bar" to play in.   Also, the probability a herd momentum mentality has set in and pints are the best way to cure any performance anxiety over one’s stock portfolio in years past.

Geez, just got all thirsty..luckily it's almost noon in London UK!.