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Entries in MKSI (3)


Ahead of the open, (02-02)

Nothing new or catalytic caused the gap up.  Global PMI’s just reiterated the consistent ‘growth’, but risk related assets actually lagged some early and then led equities lower by close.  Bank stocks in Europe and here don’t lead off PMI’s as was the case today.  Maybe every financial was rumored to be running the Facebook IPO!.  In all, it wasn’t the standard rotation trade of 2012 as the safety sectors had money flow as well.  Maybe it was just fresh money being deployed broadly and indiscriminately at the start of the month, just to be in the game.

As far as PMI’s, U.S inline numbers were a win –win situation.  If we had ‘better than expected’ headlines, it may have invoked some QE debating.  A weak number and QE aspirations would rise because it would suggest growth is waning.  In those two scenarios today, the market likely would not have gone higher, thus just being inline was enough as it keeps all factors of 2012 going as far as economy (is strong enough) and QE speak (eco’ not robust enough) is concerned.  An example is probably China’s #, it’s PMI curbed easing chatter and it’s market fell 1 % off the ‘better than expected’ print despite ‘hard landing’ off the table.   This chance was noted last week in “better than expected” PMI’s selling off.  The fact it was only China, selling luckily only stayed in Asia.  All in, the bullish macro landscape from December still exists today with CB accommodative policies helping ‘risk on’ around the world, especially in fixing Europe through LTRO, which has brought down Italian and Spanish yields greatly and kept Eurozone economies from falling into pieces.

As good as today seemed, (maybe because it’s one of the few nice gains since the first trading day of the year), we are still about 10 handles off the recent top and in a range tug of war.  

  • As far as mid-small cap earnings:  IACI, added last Q and LQDT  had solid earnings in the morning. CVLT also here in November was okay.  MKSI  AH’s was solid.

Ahead of the open, (09-02)

What do you say today at markets close that hasn’t been said all week?.  Well, the daily gains/losses on the higher beta Russell 2000 pretty well sum it up. (R2K ~-3 on Monday: -1 on Tuesday; +1 today at close).  As far as the intraday shenanigans, the market basically gains a few points on ‘optimistic’ Greek headlines and losses a few points on new postponement headlines!.  Unfortunately or is it fortunately, Greece has not been a market ‘factor’ to trade on or off here during the rally.  Maybe, we should just be patient and relax as the pace of gains so far in ’12 can’t go on forever, but this grind is difficult after being accustomed to the high volatility seen last year. Unfortunately, these 2 factors are probably keeping new money out of the market right now. On one side, the investor says these gains can’t keep going, so we’ll wait for a nice dip/correction, while the other battered and frightened investor says, it’s inevitable some bomb will still detonate in Europe!.

Anyways, next few days will be about Central banks speak (as noted last few days) to potentially move the market.

So, what to do in a flattish market with no clear leadership and/or sector to lean on?.  Where’s the alpha to trade on a daily basis?.  Well, it’s not far away , it’s in the earnings reports.  At this point, picking out winners that can be traded initially off a report and/or Shadowlisting going forward in ’12 is the general idea.  Today, HAR/TDG tacked on 4pts between them on day 2 after earnings showing you don’t need to jump on immediately following a report and/or on the gap.  Recall, LQDT gained 9% on day 2 after being posted following its first day of trading with report out.  As far as stocks posted before opening following earnings.  If you can’t trade them fast and take profits early as in high betas like PMTC  MKSI  that spiked and soon relinquished gains, you’ll have opportunities later to get in on a pullback. (ie. today PMTC made a fresh high). Primarily, this is why single stock alerts are not given out any longer, it’s a matter of ones comfort with jumping in and chance a high beta like SIMO  effect as well.

Overall, one thing to watch now is if ‘bigger’ cap names that report burst out of the gate, but soon after give up those gains. This will be a sign the market is getting fatigued with investors looking to take profits now and not chase.


Ahead of the open, (14-02)

Market simply reverted back to its 2012 ‘in the game’ ways.  If the investor doesn’t hold overnight, the investor misses on most of the day’s rally as it’s usually all in the morning gap.  If one doesn’t buy the shallow dips, one misses more opportunities to be ‘in the game’.  Although momentum always stalls after gaps, the market feels like SP 1370’s has a magnet attached to it pulling stocks back up from very shallow dips.

As the market retraced all it’s losses from Friday, you have ask what all the noise was about on Friday.  The austerity package passed this weekend as speculated.  All the Euro group wanted on Friday was for this occur to kick off negotiations.  All in, the noise will likely pick up with ‘negotiations’ as soon as Wednesday (finance ministers meet) and last till late (redemption date) March!.

As far as the underlying sectors, all the right groups led on the upside and single stock action from earnings related names this Q continues to be favorable with many new names hitting fresh highs. Names noted include:

...TDG, HAR, TRMB, THO… (IACI AZPN  FTNT FIRE  LQDT  MKSI  N PMTC  URI  LULU etc.),  while other names just confirmed they should remain on the list for yet another year, if this Q’s # is any indication, ie: (WYNN  LVS  PII  FFIV  FOSL  UA  CRM  MA DDD OTEX etc.)