YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK

DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK

· Daily stock market color and insight before every U.S market-open, 'INTO THE TRADING DAY', 5X a week before 8:30 am/est. Follow our extensive trading desk experience and lead in recognizing daily event upside/ downside risks ahead of each trading day.

· DJIM bridges the gap between the retail-investor / trader and the institutional players by filtering out the noise, abundance of information (good or bad) generated through the media/ Internet.

· Our daily Journals encompass our trading methodology allowing you to interconnect with us by ‘Shadowing’ our trading platform watchlist. A 'Shadow'list of 50-75 stocks is tailored and fragmented (outperforming SECTORS, MID-SMALL CAPS, EARNINGS/ GROWTH (EPS) linked stocks, IBD 50, MOMENTUM STOCKS) to gauge single stock action and the broad underlying market for SP 500 direction to go long or short. New plays (stock/sector) are added, especially during earnings season through Journal updates.

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Entries in MA (6)



We have to admit a 400+ reversal from a floodgate open was quite impressive today. We highlighted the importance of watching out for MBI bits and with it the potential for a " watch out upside" if the negative noise from yesterday could be broken down.  Minutes later and for 3-4 hrs they provided upbeat noise of their own, until with 5 minutes left in the day a newswire bit on the insurers plummeted the DOW some 100+ points in seconds showing either the markets sensitivity or just its craziness.  It's the markets resiliency to bad news (initial claims this am) that is making us think that maybe we have seen the worst.   Right now, Dow is near its resistance level and Naz is not that far off.    Does this mean we can bust through and start a parade?   Well, first there's this thing called Google to bowl over.     If it wasn't for Google's not so rosy report, we may have a chance to finish the week on a high note tomorrow given a half decent job report.     At this point, things don't look so clear.    Job report is of course going to be the focus of the day and it may very well set a strong tone in the early going.    One thing is for sure, a disappointing job report coupled with this GOOG report can and probably will crumble this latest rally.     As a matter of fact, there's no better time to turn this market around than now since it's right near its resistance level.

So how important is Google these days?   We think it's still an icon for growth oriented stocks and if it says things are slowing down, there's definitely cause for concern with regard to our economy.     If Google expects less advertising revenue, it simply means that ad. company are cutting back which means they believe consumers will be spending less.    Somehow, everything seems to be interconnected these days and you can use all kinds of assumption to justify the status of this economy.     The bottom line, aside from Google, there have been numerous earning reports so far this quarter that belong in the "disappointing" bin.    There is a general consensus that things are slowing down and we just have to deal with it.  Still, the reaction has been mute so far on the futures and we may see some of the AMZN type action spilling over as it too had a horrible AH's yesterday.  We also maybe be seeing a rotation into new leaders to take us out of the bottom and so there is less fascination or emphasis w/ GOOG and the rest of the giant growth stocks we are used to following.

Now the game plan!    If we get a good job report tomorrow, it is possible we get some very good action in the early going but we think it might be hard to sustain all day, especially on a Friday.    We'd definitely be looking to lock up some profit if such a scenario plays out.    If we get a bad job report tomorrow, we are likely going to wait to do some bottom fishing on some of our recent favourite longs.     In this market, it definitely pays to do the opposite of the market action when it's at an extreme level.    Look at today as a dismal claims number was quickly forgotten.  What we mean by that is to buy the good stocks on an extreme selloff and short the crappy stocks on an extreme rally.     Remember, this market is no longer a one way ride so you might as well start taking advantage of both sides of the action.

MA once again beat estimates and makes its way back here for more.  Remember, it's a circus.



In case you have been visiting various T/A sites lately or have been paying attention to some of the CNBC commentators, you'd often hear the mention of "breaking out of triangle"!    What they are referring to is the exact same thing we have been talking for the last few days.  Basically, market participants, especially the ones heavily into T/A , are looking for a big move that would take us out of this trading range.  This infatuation has really been led by the Shorts to scare.   This trading range has basically been teasing us with some false moves left and right.     Today's no exception.    What started as a happy camper for bears kind of day only ended up as a "do I need to worry about my short position" at the end of the day.  The rush to cover positions would result in some fast and furious moves once these triangles get busted. 

This market has a particular way to mess with your minds lately.    What may seem like a logical outcome may actually turn out to be something else.   This is what we attempted to say in the Journal leading into today's action as everything pointed to a breakdown.   Today's CPI data was not good, and that's a fact.    The last thing we need at this moment is more inflation worry and that'll definitely hamper any recovery from a potential recession.    Also, the details of the last Fed. meeting was released today and we now have the actually acknowledgement of the Bernanke and company that growth rate will be slowed down this year.     So how are all these news not pushing this market down?    Don't ask why! .   It's just happening as we pointed out the possibility this weekend and that's all we need to know. "...However, we may get some surprises judging from the futures trading at the current moment that coincides nicely with Fridays reversal led by financials after a BBY warning and weaker NY Empire number, Michigan sentiment.  Is the market starting to price in some of the bad Eco data?.  Well, we'll definitely know after this weeks data. "       

Today action was some reinforcement.

Today, the bears seemed to have all the right cards and there was no reason not to think that things won't go their merry way.     However, as we all have known before, market has its own mind when it comes to timing of a break down.     In our opinion, in light of the recent economic news and a seasonal slower trading environment coming up, the market will eventually come down and at least test the recent low.     When will it happen?    We now have a feeling that we may be due for a big upward move before it gets rolled over.      We also have a feeling that many participants who are bearish on this market are actually scared that we'd have a big short term rally.       Then there's this triangle talk.    As the trading range is tightening up, the urgency to have a move has become far greater.    We feel the big move is going to happen very soon and this time around, you may not want to fade this move right away as the move can probably carry a few days worth of momentum at least.

The most efficient trading strategy during the past few weeks is to fade the move.   It means you go the opposite of a strong move and it takes a day or two before you get paid off handsomely.    If we are anticipating a big move that's likely to carry more than a few day's worth of momentum, you may not want to fade it as soon as possible.    Rather, you may simply want to trade with the move.     Of course, we aren't specifically calling for a direction here but merely pointing out the probability is much better now.

If we do start to get a move up, the most obvious sign we are looking for is from the XLF, or the financial sector to join in.     Financials led us to a 1000 point move from 11700 to 12780 and we feel it'll once again be the key to a potential rally.    If we get some nasty deteriorating action from the financials, then you'd know which direction this market is heading.

Commodities, believe it or not, the reason why this market isn't going down as many would suggest is the fact commodity groups are pulling it up.   We have everything from oil, coal, steel, gold, metals, fertilizers, food...and just about everything related to them having a lot of strength last couple of days.    Forget about AAPL RIMM BIDU, we have to expand our trading circle and know better about the MTL CLF(eps tomorrow) and even the PBR FDG POT MOS etc., we've traded before.     If global inflation is as real as analysts suggest, we better replace more of the plays on our watchlist.    Can this be a commodity year?    For many commodities, we are already into the unchartered territory so it's definitely plausible at this moment.

Now some plays....

Agri/Chem.,   love them or hate them!    You have to love them this week because they just don't seem to want to stop, regardless of this market's direction.   We hate them because it hasn't presented us with any good buying opportunity last few days.    POT MOS CF all notched new closing highs today. 

Steels/Iron Ore,  apparently the deal over the weekend was that some Asian companies agreed to iron ore price hike.   This explains a lot of upward movement from this sector.    We are liking many old yet familiar names in this sector including MTL CLF X GGB etc.

Solars,  again, the kind of eps/outlook reported by FSLR does not necessarily get shared by other solar companies.    We again witnessed a mighty miss from STP and it's having a pretty dramatic effect on other plays in the sector.    We were picking up some FSLR earlier today around $205 alert time and are comfortable swinging/ holding some for next couple of days.

Recent EPS winners, we are keeping our eyes on some of the companies that had strong reaction to their recent earning report.   We were buying pieces and/or eyeing FLS CLB JLL MA AXE ILMN CMP... for some good action provided this market breaks out to the upside.  Take the time to review this earnings seasons Journals to see if something is missing from your watchlist.  It's been a tough go this season, but most names here have performed well since being introduced and should continue too after surviving all this.

Bottom line, we aren't leaning too heavily in either direction just yet, but based on the way this market shakes off bad news lately, the momentum seems to be shifting toward up and not down.   It could be this week, if no news bomb comes across.... Just be ready


...April Shower?

On this last day of the month,  the market is set up for either an April shower or a blooming May flower to be it seems!.  It's that simple as once again we are at the mercy of a FED decision and to make it even more interesting a GDP number before.    As usual the days before a FED decision provide lacklustre, choppy tight trading as traders become hesitant to make any volume moves.    Today will be one interesting day, but of course as often happens something else is on the horizon to fuel more speculation and that is the Friday job report!.    Ahh, it never stops, does it?.      So, basically if you are constantly defensive and weary of all economic data, you might as well never trade in this environment the last year!.   The most important aspect today may be the reaction of the USD after the FED decision.   The USD has been gaining some ground on the Euro/Yen and what we are witnessing is gains in the Dollar index are causing a retreat from the commodity/materials sectors.   Yesterday, we had oil down almost 3%, Gold off about 2.5%, Materials overall -3.1%.    There is a lot of noise that a stronger dollar will cause commodity stocks to fall further.   We think this is just that in the longer term..a whole lot of noise!. 

On the other side of the trade yesterday, it was only the credit card processors, MA and V that provided any kind of excitement.  Both companies beat handily their estimates, but it wasn't until MA reported a 30% beat that V's under 20% beat gained interest after getting beat down in the previous AH session.  Looks like we'll have another nice Q to trade these names.

The last 48 hours, we've seen a flurry of DJIM stocks announce earnings... some like MA V FLS CMP X and FSLR today are reporting great numbers, but what you are running into is something called 'expectations', in some cases unrealistic expectations.    This makes trading these at first sight difficult and what you should only be doing is going with the trend after indication it's all clear or you'll find yourself having a lunch with a CMP to the 50ema or worse.     If we didn't think these were powerful EPS companies, we would not have been playing them for months.   The point is getting ahead of the herd as we've done and let others worry about playing these stocks immediately off the next earnings. we go!.  Strap yourself in....or will this be just more unnecessary hype we've had to go through?


A relief...

Going into the Fed meeting, we noticed that there was a certain kind of anxiety among the market participants.   It was almost as if people were expecting some sort of surprise from the Fed policy.   Instead, we got about as neutral of a Fed policy as you can get.    Everything is expected from this Fed policy statement and nothing more, nothing less.   This is the first relief.    The second relief on the day is the kiss of 13000 on Dow.    You can say that hitting 13000 is inevitable and no big deal.    To many, they just have to see it to be relieved, sort of.    What followed the Fed announcement was a quick trip to Dow 13000 and then a reversal of the earlier gain to eventually close in negative territory.     So basically, with these two reliefs out of the way, we can finally get back into the trading business in the days, weeks ahead. 

Heading into the day, we had added some commods the day before, we got a very nice bump up in the morning and as we said going into the week, we'd be selling any positions before the Fed decision if we pushed closer to 13000.  The long commods', short the dollar players didn't get what they expected in the FED statement to reverse that play.   In case this was to materialize, we sold out ahead and it seemed many did as well as the commods' reversed down shortly after.     Now that we have the Fed thing out of the way, we can think of looking for entries again.     What do we expect to happen from this market the next few weeks?   We expect alot of drifting with no meaningful move from either direction.     However, a market in drift mode does not mean that there isn't opportunities to trade.    Keep in mind, even if the market goes in drift mode, we can still expect a swing of several hundred points in either direction on a weekly basis.    This is unfortunately the nature of this market nowadays where big market swings can happen in a blink of an eye, relatively speaking.

Judging by some stock action lately, we are going to summarize some as follows.

Earning winners are still being rewarded and this is especially important for DJIM strategy.   We like the story/earnings of MA/V and think the pair is a very good barometer of market sentiment.    Of course, we wouldn't want to chase them at this point, but we'd rather get in on pullbacks.   Oil price isn't likely to fall below $100 any time soon with summer(strong demand) season coming up.    This will affect everything from solar plays, transportation, energy services and of course oil stocks.    When it comes to oil related plays, it's almost ALWAYS best to buy on weakness as oppose to chase on strength.   This is contrary to our strategy for playing small cap eps plays, but times have definitely changed and those plays are just not around.     As far as other commodity plays go, we are waiting for some of our plays/sectors to stabilize first.    A correction is still a correction, no matter how big or small.    Watch the CRX as we noted yesterday for this stabilization and potential bounce.  It looks as though coal stocks may have turned positive and we'd be keeping a close eye on plays like MEE, FDG etc.     We also continue to like shippers as they'd probably be played right into their earnings date.   Again, we'd prefer to buy on weakness.     We also like select tech companies which include most of the internet stocks as most earning reports suggest that they are somewhat "immune" to economic slowdown.     Basically, we are only playing the ones on our watchlist.

Bottom line, it felt we have reached the end of spring trading and summer trading is on its way.     Things will definitely get a little slower from now on and this is in fact an advantage to us because we will have more time to position ourselves.   We'll see what the remainder of the week brings, at this point we're not in a hurry to get back in size before the employment report and/or with the market digesting all of yesterdays events.


DJIM #22  2008

Over the weekend it seems many were saying the 4 day shortened trading week was much ado about nothing with not many stocks to chase.  That's true if you are judging this market by the DJIA.   Here, we are not as the concentration on commodity stocks continued with two big days sandwiching one not so.   That's fine as it presents the chance to recycle your favorites over and over again.   Also, quiet important was that the market was mending itself after the previous weeks fall.   We said be patient and let things settle down heading into last weeks trading and that is just what we got.    The healing process is most evident in the IWM as  it seems to have confirmed its breakout over 73 after a test.   We also had the NDX confirming the earlier breakout over 2000 by putting in a nice week.   It's clear from these broad indexes there is a big game going on between Oil vs. Tech.

Heading into this week the playground for DJIM remains the same.  The only differences to note week to week now is which commodity sector is best to trade at that particular time.  Example of this is just as we were once again becoming cautious on the Solars important subsidy news surfaced out of Germany premarket on Friday which made solars gap up at the open.  If this news comes too fruition, we will have all the time in the world to chase these stocks over the next Q as the news is quite significant.   One thing we wont do and didn't do is chase the gap open we saw on Friday, instead we are just moving up this sector up our trading ladder and we'll keep a closer eye on the stocks here.    We'll keep saying.." Out of all the commodity groups, coals are still showing the best technical with steels a distant second".    The amazing streak in the coals continued with DJIM's bushel of ANR, PCX and FDG making new highs on Friday.  MS has put ANR on overweight and FBR has put PCX as a top pick at their firm this morning while raising estimates on the whole sector.   We can only ask what took you boys so long?.  Always better to be early to a stock party isn't it or be stuck scratching your head if PCX is now too expensive at $108.   It was profiled here April 15th in the low 60's.

Really nothing has changed about what we'll most likely continue to trade, hell why would we!.   Until, we'll just pluck at a few new plays here and there as they emerge like on Friday with PVA, which even after a gap open managed to pull off about 4 pts after our alert.   We simply liked the idea off going back to the 'WELL' after our CLR play and just waited for the right time to alert.    If you want to get into the tech fever, we think the only stocks you need to trade are the RIMM, AAPL, BIDU, SOHU, GOOG.   If you want a few DJIA stocks, there is nothing wrong with concentrating on V, MA.    It's all there on the Shadowlist simplifying what we should be looking to trade depending on what area of the market is moving.   Have a good week!

**NOTE-  We added a direct link to the DJIM Shadowlist on the navigation column that you may enjoy.  Scrolling over names allows you access more info and you can change all charts to daily just above the first 3 charts.  We will update every week or two, until use new names from Alert, Journal to add until.


Best defense...

In this market,  the best defense right now is to go offensive on things that are hurting this market.   Contradictory?  No!    By following many news headline and comments from the financial web sites lately, you'd come up with a sense that this market is heading lower, much lower.    This indeed is putting a lot of traders into a cautionary stance with respect to this market.     However, when you look at the action from many of our plays on our watchlist, you'd have a different feeling all together.     No, we don't have a secret list or a "Glengarry Glen Ross" list, every play on our Shadowlist is now well known in the trading community.  We just happen to pick those plays out early and compile them into a trading list.     Recent unknown names including PCX, ANR, CMP have become darlings to the trading community.   You have to understand, many of the plays on our list is the reason why the economy is hurting.    The increasing raw cost of goods is driving up inflation and price increase is being passed along at every level, and ultimately at the consumers' end.    If consumers refuse to spend or spend less, then there goes those profit projection of many well known public companies.

How about that block trade of MA at the end eh?   Is that a paint or is that a paint and a half?    In any case, we know now that there's someone willing to chase plays like MA at that level with that kind of money.     The point is that stock market will always exaggerate even our wildest expectation.    Basically, what we mean is that when a stock or a sector has a good story behind it, do not ever underestimate the power of those money chasing it.     As of this moment, we can say that no analyst in this world has a true price projection for any of our coal plays, or steel or most other plays we currently cover.     For analysts from MS or FBR to be bullish on plays like PCX, ANR yesterday is no different than us getting bullish on these plays two months ago.    Frankly, we thought some of these commodity plays would be done by now, price action wise.   Obviously, someone else has different ideas!.  There are dozens of upgrades a day and we don't give the majority a second look, we definitely don't put them in the Journal unless we feel there could be an effect, as we did yesterday with the coals.   Unfortunately, this action might have given these names a toppy feeling.  This was a 3rd big day out of the last 4 trading days. 

We haven't really added any different variety of plays to our list in a while and there's a reason we`re not doing so.  Simple..  Why mess with it?   Many plays on our list are still getting a 10% gain on a weekly basis and if you happen to catch a couple of nice dips, the gains might be even more.     The bottom line, avoid the beaten down stocks!    Although we are watching many index weighing stocks and financial stocks,  we are only monitoring them to gauge the direction of overall market movement.    If index weighing stocks do get more troublesome, you'd be sure that it will spread out to other sectors as well.    In that case, we'd expect to be in full "buy on dip" mode very soon afterwards.     This was the first trading week of June and it's starting out with a pretty lousy day.    For now, index`s such as (NDX, IWM) level held,  but we'd be eyeing the days low on the majors as a potential trigger for further downside follow through.   At the end of the day, we are sitting with large percent of cash on hand, most likely we'll be very nimble for the rest of this week until the Job report.   As we`ve noted recently,...

  • There are better things to do this summer than blow it now, so be patient and be selective.     There is also a lot of noise around the Financials now that has an unsettling tone suggesting we may be in for some problematic surprises.    You'd hate to wake up to some surprise at this point.  We've all been through enough of those the past year.

This holds true more now as we started to see noise come out of the U.K system premarket.  Later in the day we got a S& P credit rating downgrade of financials. (LEH MER MS BAC JPM). What`s next, who`s next ....hhhmmm