..what a helicopter drop!

What can you say?....A Helicopter Ben surprise with an aggressive helicopter drop down every chimney!.   Yes...kids there will be a Christmas this year, thanks to Santa Ben.   We can also get a bigger tree on credit!.    Most importantly..your parents will have something to trade into what is the usually the best trading season and so you might get presents under the tree as well!...   To us this is what mattered most, the ability to have a tradable winter!.   It is almost irrelevant if you missed one of the biggest Wall street day's in years.   You only need to look forward and the opportunities this will most likely give all of us.   This was so well orchestrated, the PPI #'s in the morning, the LEH report and then what they are calling now the 'shock and awe'.  But, was it really if you look at all the pieces and how they were lining up during the day.    Well, at least that's the way we were thinking as the day progressed.   Considering our stance heading into this was one of being thinly positioned, mostly because we'd seen nothing worthwhile to trade off the past 5 trading,  it might have come as a surprise why we alerting a buy into GS in the morning.  Not only is it a large cap, but it is a bank(s) that never floats DJIM's boat.   As we say often here, we trade with our heads, but the gut plays a role with the head making the last decision.  Guess we went out on the limb with GS, who we saw as potentially the biggest beneficiary of what we got. Also knowing the incredible up and down volatility that always immediately follows the FOMC minutes, we still alerted an invitation to an upcoming party for the market in whole. We never got the volatility, it was straight up to close at highs of day.  We had the inkling of one coming as the day wore on and us soon as we saw a 50bps -50 discount and a do as 'needed' statement, there was nothing left to do but press the send button at 2:15.   Still...like we said,  it's irrelevant if you missed the whole day or our party invitation.   It is the rosy forward trading picture that matters.   Still, we all knew this was shaping up as a historic day for weeks and it should have had you at the trading platform to be actionable just in case.    So, if 50% were correct on the 50bps, a much lesser % of the .50bps camp dreamed of the other .50 and accompanying statement and so what you got was all camps chasing, covering.....making a record day.   The biggest winners of course were the ones heavily positioned.   That's great, but to us the risk was not worth heading into Tuesday.. Instead, we simply reacted to the days flow and still had a nice day.  Reason being if you are mostly in cash heading into this surprise, you can allot the cash to the right sector, the right plays when given the green light.   You have money to burn!.     If you were invested too much, especially in sectors not benefiting, you might have been stuck in plays lagging with no extra cash to benefit.    Human nature is to wait and not believe your stock is not participating.   Remember, not all get invited to the party, we've been through this before recently with VMW,WX not playing along on nice days.   Today, we if get a nice follow through early...we will be selling lots and lots of yesterdays buys before catching our breath and possibly repositioning.    We've talked about this methodology here many times before and most recently put it to work last Tuesday morning to cash in.

GS, of course you could have played anything after the cut in this sector, but as far as we are concerned it was best to keep adding to the morning buys as GS is best of breed to us.  LEH did a lot to make you want to hold GS into earnings, we will be hard pressed not to hold some even if it goes against our DJIM methodology of not holding into earnings.  This is different considering the turn of events, including the LEH report. We still will take a handsome portion of the profits off and keep some into the report on Thursday.  This surely will present some quick in and out opportunities into the close today as speculating will come in.

EXM, DRYS, FREE when a sector shows strength before a FOMC even if it falters just before, it still should be on your radar as the first possibility to trade into following what was a surprise.    If it tries once, it should try again if the news is good.  As far as FREE is concerned, the market participants just haven't had reason to get on the small float, EPS bandwagon this Q.   It's as if the herd has left the building.  We saw that apprehension early in this stock, you can't really blame the herd as it was on the day of the FOMC.   Maybe, the mentality will change and the herd will remember the possibilities in these types of stock we all enjoy here when it's been fashionable.  There is also a seller that was creating a wall, if you have level 2 you will see him as ARCA and they are not showing how much they have.    Once this is/if removed this might move.  Of course, the sector motion will play a role here.  Many stocks take time to be discovered, especially if the time is not one where traders are scrambling to trade as we've seen lately.    We hope this action yesterday by the FED changes that for the sake of small float, EPS stocks as we head into earnings season, our bread and butter.

BIDU, EJ, ROS these stocks highlighted in previous days Journal all performed well leading into the afternoon. You don't need to chase stocks off alerts here, you have plenty of opportunities to get in stocks after the morning Journals and profit.  Every stock is different, some need to be chased, most don't.    There is something for every type of trader, investor here.   Each one of these stocks is different in its volatility and therefore suitability.    We just happen to like to trade all the colors.  EJ, had a tight .15 cent range, which might signal more accumulation after the heavy activity at $20.00 the day before. Where is Merril with a initiation?. This action we've seen the last 2 days might be the forward to it. ROS, russian telcos keep on acting well, even before the FED note.  BIDU, you probably have taken most off the table. It would be the smart thing to do after the last 2 days.

Best to look over the charts printed here for possibilities this morning.  Be careful and don't be trying to play catch up this morning if you missed some entries late yesterday.  We'd hate to be selling some of them to you.  Santa Ben has given us more time than we could have envisioned to make $....you won't be left behind.

...The Love boat (ship)

Despite the major indices puttering along, notably the Dow as the big caps lost its allure thanks to profit worries hitting the A-B-C's and even an M of the big cap niche (AA,BA,CVX,MON), the DJIM closely watched index hardly blinked an eye.  This midday down tick included the RUT, rotting away till a late push made for a mixed day.   Life went on here, the main concentration here this week continued on the Shipping stocks and most of us were humming....Love, exciting and new..Come aboard.  We 're expecting you.  Love, life's sweetest reward...let it flow, it floats back to you....Okay, no romance here, but we were all waiting for more traders to get aboard our ships filled with iron ore and cereals to send our stocks higher.   Most importantly, we were waiting for those interested in a FREE ride and we definitely got this low floater discovered as it hit Briefingtrader and then late afternoon the more widely read day log that really pushed it.  This was our cry in the forum early and our cries turned to smiles as they profiled FREE late in the day.

The boys DRYS, TBSI, EXM, the secondary plays ESEA, PRGN started great and of course the idea of FREE caught on.   For a second lets turn back the clock to Aug 26 when we issued a weekend alert as the markets were dwindling, yet the shippers were making new highs.   What a concept buying the NCH is!.  This time it wasn't for an individual stock, it was for a sector.    Why not?.   This just stamps the over played methodology here of buying the strongest, those near highs and those making NCH's.   Same goes for the China stocks we've been trading.   The idea Tuesday at noon that this sector might go even higher after an already great morning proved to be true and TBSI had a nice and quick 5 point upside from the $50 mark.  Oh yeah, great job Briefingcom for picking up on the secondary plays to the big boys, it only helps our cause that was expressed here early this week.  We're not looking for the recent China speculative action to repeat itself,  so what we do is sell to the ones boarding this train late...sorry meant ship!.   Hey, every nice size cargo has to be unloaded at some time and we're not shy about doing it.    FREE, we waited long enough for this to be discovered,  our last note was early Tuesday afternoon and of course we were selling quite a bit into the strength.   We've always tried and discovered stocks before the herd as many of you know from hanging out with us at those seedy bars before.   There is money to be made in getting early, it is a clear monetary advantage to get to something first and use the later herd discovery as an advantage to your pocket book.   This was the case with FREE, even MHJ got  some print and pump in other circles.    We don't doubt this could go higher as this discovery on huge volume should give it legs and we'll trade it accordingly.   Our only fault with it is it has a knack of giving it up (gains) and until that seller is completely removed, we aren't so sure it won't again.   If using the big volume surge as a gauge this shouldn't happen...still if some profit taking takes its course in the big boys soon, this FREE will see it too.  The BDI jumped 3.6% and the fever will continue into Q1 `08, but not without a few hiccups.   We've seen them before eh?.  Not all up days are 3.6% on a index are they.  Also, don't confuse dry bulk ships with those carrying crude.   There isn't a worse area to swim in.

Unless the #'s, guidance from the big techs ( most importantly) is terrible, we are of the gut feeling the RUT will have a melt up into the late stage of 2007 and catch up to the indices that are making new highs seemingly daily. We're in the right place with the niche we cover if this happens..okay, when it happens;).  So, don't panic when you see the DJIA drift lower just over100 points if your DJIM play list is not blinking like yesterday.  Anyways, a very good week as we've been in the loop as to what is going to move. 

A few scattered names of interest/ focus that we have been adding to or looking to possibly get in, include................

VMW, tgt raised yesterday by UBS,    China's STV, WX ,EDU (eps next week, maybe a little run before off a NCH today), also dirty Brean Murray is here so after JRJC who knows what they might have in mind here,    GLDN, which regrouped and had a solid day,   CETV near highs,   CSCT which had some news out on revenue yesterday,  maybe even GROW on a reversal following some asset news yesterday and ARTW, following EPS midday. 

..winds of change?

Winds of change?...on any given day that weak news breeze would not have moved a leaf on a tree.  The weak breeze, the ones given as explanation everywhere is the JPM estimate knock down of BIDU and this Weber's comments from the European Central Bankl on raising rates.  Okay..since when is a 2mln cut in revenue estimates in one individual tech stock enough to cause the NASD to drop so steeply.  This wasn't a downgrade, they didn't lower EPS, they didn't cut the $400 targets they set in early October.  They actually gave a few highlights and said the revenue loss was due to what was already known in early September as a slight possible short term negative.     Now, to this Weber guy.    Going through the Financial Times here in Europe, there is not even a mention of this, okay one ...one line on the last page.    So what happened?.   Simply,  we've been talking about the divergence in volume to the rising indices as a concern.   You can't keep this action up without a negative tone setting in if it continues.  Add... the fact we had possibly reached a short term tree top based on so many consecutive up days,  it was inevitable to see a correction sooner than later with a shake of that AAPL tech tree.    The surprise was the magnitude, the steepness, the speed of the snapback, especially in these momentum big caps.   On the other hand is it really a surprise to live this drop?.  Not really, if you understand the game and aren't blindly involved in it.   Momentum stocks give it ,  but they also take it back ruthlessly.    If you're here, you know this quite well as you've probably been a victim more than once and it doesn't matter if it's a momo shipper or the headline grabbers of AAPL and RIMM.    Live and learn.    Same holds true with stocks.   Maybe some of you were beaten up yesterday, but you should only blame that greedy bugger that sits on your shoulder as you sit in front of your trading platform.   We've had an awesome week here from the STV, VMW, FREE and the shippers to name a few.   Plus...the morning was great, more of the same and some new recent additions like MHJ to 16+ from 13 last week, GLDN to 68, CETV to 103, EDU to 70, all spiked and we had one for the scalpers in HSWI for a possible 20-25%.      But wait...ask yourself the question why were the markets up in the morning?.   Did the blue light special just go off?.    Think about, we were up on Wal-Mart!.   Since when are we gauging this market on this relic!.  This is froth when see the whole market gap, run up the Wal Mart aisles!.     Simply, 'we' the market set ourselves up,  we ran the market blindly yesterday and the days leading up for a mighty profit taking reversal.   The suspicious thing of this is it comes just days before the big tech stocks report.    A coincidence?.     Maybe a pullback, correction now so the big boyz get some cheap now and then rally us into Santa's lap?.    The idea of the indices going straight up from end of summer after all the turmoil till the end of the year, just doesn't fly if you are at all realistic and sane.    So just thinking out load that this is a short term ...much need breather to fuel up.   The DJIA respected 14000 as it did last week,  if we go below and start holding below 13950, we could be in for a further ride down.    Lots of possibilities now, lots of spin..lots of noise.   It's all about the big caps techs and the reports coming up shortly.    You just saw what a little noise can do yesterday, close your eyes and see the damage that can be done if these guys start disappointing.    Next Friday is the 20th anniversary of you know what!!!!!BOO-HOO!!.    There is no harm of staying clear until you know and see more.   Much easier to jump on a moving bus than sitting in one and waiting for it to move in the direction you want..we all want.   There is always 'only' a need to take profits in stocks.  If you already blew this opportunity for yourself this week,  you might want to keep a few pieces to possibly catch a bounce.   It's up to you.   Just know your stocks, know their capabilities...their stress level, their sensitivity to market conditions as they arise.

Also note, WBuffet is selling some of his large China stakes. Oh boy.   Is this more of the political angle involved with some of his holdings or is this what his view of China is in general?. hmmm.  Surely, the spin will start from this to scare you silly.

Tech stuff this am..ORCL M & A news,   AAPL tgt raised by MS,     IBM estimates raised by JPM before next weeks report...as if yesterday's tech wreck didn't happen;).