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Entries in SPEC (2)


DJIM #15 2007

A premise here has been our belief that the markets will be solid going into another earning season, a market has little chance of crashing through the floor before the companies get a chance to tell their side of the story. The correction has been literally wiped away and the recent retracement to the 100ma averages has seen a healthy bounce as we enter Q2.  Last week was one for the books as a number of plays here enjoyed breakaway gains..WBD, JSDA, GROW, MFW.  Isn't interesting that these are all earning plays at one time or another on DJIM. We also had nice moves from AMAG,OYOG.  Plus the solars TSL,ASTI, FSLR..we talked about last weekend as a possibility for the week made for some nice trades.  Sometimes the strong get stronger and it is more apparent in a bullish trend such as we enjoyed last week.  Simply, this was a case of recycling which is a big part of our trading methodology. Speaking of recycling, a few names popped back into our books here on Thursday and they include DJIM stocks from January in MTRX and USAP, both previous earning gem winners.

We'll concentrate on Thursday additions...

MTRX, announce an excellent Q with an upside to guidance. Last Q this was pick up at 16+ and was as steady as they come. Not a big flyer it survived every pit the market would throw at it, including a sliding Oil price and it still held ground. We expected MTRX to trade as the previous earning day, but it performed much better than expected as the institutions did not churn it as before. The guidance was the key this time around as it put on gains throughout the day finishing strong. by $0.07, issues upside guidance (21.41 ) : Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 41.1% year/year to $168.7 mln vs the $136.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees FY07 revs of $630-640 mln, up from previous guidance of $560-580 mln, vs. $588.92 mln consensus.  CEO says, "Our third quarter performance significantly exceeded our expectations as we were able to add to our strong talent pools in the construction services groups allowing us to capture and execute more projects, particularly in the Downstream Petroleum Industry."

USAP, a darling from last Q with first buy in at 36+. This maker of speciality steel products including Aerospace and power industries is in the right space at the right time.  We think it is just a matter of hours before we see USAP take on the February highs of 51.80 and go forward and so we added it back. FWIW...Cramer was bullish on his lighting bolt seg March 7th as well.

SPEC, this one gapped off earning March 30th, ( Q1 EPS of $0.16 vs $0.02 in yr ago period; revs $32.9 mln vs $25.6 mln in yr ago period ). Sequentially, this was in line with Q4EPS and with 99 94 IBD numbers it is seeking $15 from the IBD crowd.

Speaking of IBD... How about SYNL and EML, #13 and #85 this weekend for these two DJIM finds from 2006 and last Q. Guess they added their volume together to stick them finally on IBD100.  A note about EML, Friday there was a note on Dept of Defense new armoured vehicle program. Big contracts will come in 07 as this program expands and AH(Armor Holding) gets EML do quite a bit of the work. 

TNH, Terra Nitrogen (nitrogen fertilizer products). 93c Q announced in February. It has been a great trade for sometime due to its volatility. It is one to be traded with care. We added on the dip Thursday and it recovered and flirted with new day highs by close. Made a NCH on a very good volume day(top 5 this year). Guess this is a Ag play as it grows what we eat,  but it is tied to the price of natural gas, it is more than 60% of its expenses. So know what's going on in that end.

As great as the recycling program can be, it does not stop us from looking forward and having cash available to go strong after a new batch of earning plays. We have a growing play list after last week, but we think the bigger money can be made in new picks coming up and so enter this Q with plenty of cash on hand.  Also, if we were holding any laggards at this point, we would simply dump here and avoid waiting for a sunny day with anything stalled and just free up more cash to use on new plays.

If you need reminding, here is a list of some of the stocks we traded here last Q off earning... USAP CCF VTRU VARI MTRX SYNL EML HDNG CYNO TRT HURC TRCR TGX NWK AVZA CSV.   Get it?  Opportunities will be there!

It starts with RIMM and VIP this week as far as past DJIM earning plays.  If you missed it, we've talked about VIP being a play before earning on the heels of MBT report  here on the Journal. So watch it closely this week for a pre-earning reaction. A few notable Russian funds were up over 3% last week, maybe it wasn't all WBD holdings;), but a sign of things to come for DJIM Russian names.

Also, the earning dates link waits for your participation on earning dates for DJIM plays when found.



DJIM # 19 2007

" Go hard or go home", off last weekends Journal held through and true this past week.  Opportunities are abound and this recent activity has been the time to take advantage of what we are being given by the market gods and what we are giving you.   We look forward to more of the same this week.   Fingers crossed!.   By the looks/ feel of it, only outside influence from abroad can curb this enthusiasm we are seeing.  So keep your eyes on the markets overseas for any hints.  This way we could all say, FIFO..first in, first out.  Until this possibility or some other event occurs, we will keep on riding the earning reports and more.  Last week, we had another fun trip...NGA, IDSA, MA, SPAN, a few nice tradable opp's in DNDN, VOXW, GTI.  Clearly DJIM is being selective and getting into right plays!   Also a few late in the week pick ups with potential in FSLR, CROX, we hope they have a good market to show its true deserving colors.   What's important to remember is what we've discussed before and that is having cash on hand to buy.   Sometimes this means even cutting a EPS laggard after a day or so,  just so you could get into a better play.   We are even doing this as the number of stocks has grown in our book recently and we'd like to keep it manageable .  We don't want too many, we only want the best possibilities!!.   Examples of this might be a VSEA, CUB type.  Their day might come, but if a CROX shows up after you just pick up a starter in a CUB the same day, it is better to ditch the CUB to the curb.   If you already made 7pts in a MA in a few days, there is probably a better chance you'll get something close to 7 points elsewhere faster again,  so switch up to a fresher expensive name in this market for now and consider coming back to the play left behind if it behaves right later.... now the names crossing the DJIM wire...

SPAN, a crawler being discovered is just what this is. A nice pick up last week and quick but steady 2 day rise of 10%/ nearly 3pts to highs.  Overall a 30% move on the week and some hesitation, consolidation might be in order. #5 rank in IBD leading Medical stocks with 90 97 this weekend.

DNDN, definitely this was worth the wait for a 'strike' and the timing was perfect. You could almost see it coming as it traded to $19 AH's Thursday.  We concluded Thursday Journal note on DNDN with 'ring the register'.   If you didn't on a potential 3 point move or 17% on a speculative stock play...well that's just silly.  It was only the 4th of May...the15th is approaching and we will look for another ring the register entry possibility as that day nears.

FSLR, ...NO!..we are not playing the solar sector here just yet again,  we are trading the FSLR on the heels of its earning and guidance.  Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.07 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 391.9% YOY to $66.9 mln vs the $52.8 mln consensus. Sees FY07 revs of $370-$400 mln vs $326.97 mln consensus.  Simply FSLR is clicking in its execution and capacity ramp ups behind closed doors and this can't be overlooked.  We don't know what ASTI or the likes have cookin', so we go back to our favorite from this space last Q.       We bot in the afternoon as the stock started to take out the days high levels over $66.

RCCC, this was a earning play we've been looking to add again for some time.  We added late Friday.  The co' already pre-released their Q1 back on April 16 and has Bear Stearns riding a upgrade on it.   The co's call was only Friday and w/o listening to it, we'd say there was nothing negative said judging by Fridays potential breakout move.

CROX,  with a gap over $10, we really didn't expect to see more covering just yet on the first day.  It will come and we expect nothing less than to be in the 70's here soon market willing.   Maybe it will be as soon as Monday, if it does as our MA holding on its 2nd day.  To our member wearing CROX while trading, consider the static generated by CROX's is knocking out respirators in Swedish your trading platform!!

ATV,  if the market is hot , we expect IPO's to feel quite fuzzy as well, even if this sec ain't the hottie now.  There is always or will be an appetite for China IPO's and we can't overlook this one after DJIM successes with EDU, MR, HMIN in 2006-07.   This is already 2X over IPO price.  Let it sink in first, if you are wanting more than a trade possibility now.  We are trading it now.  The company runs TV direct sales programs, which are typically five to ten minutes in length, on four nationwide China Central Television, or CCTV, channels, 28 national satellite TV channels, four international satellite channels operating in China and eight local channels.

NGA,  definitely one of the best gainers/ buy in of the week by DJIM early Monday.  This one does not always trade as pretty as it did last week, we expect some dippers along the way as this makes a possible move into IBD100 life.   Again, we are playing the potential IBD inclusion with these types, not the aftermath of sticking on the list at first.  We'll decide on stocks making IBD when it happens for a further trade possibility.

TO, you have to accept these plays act up in spurts and make sure not to be taken out with the gyrations on little volume.  If it goes up a dollar quickly, it could do the same the other way before going back back up.   Patience is required on these types that don't have much history if you decide to enter them.   Volume is an to day.   Anyways,  a nice move off 9ema and a NCH, Friday.    Keep VOXW on radar for these types of moves and not necessarily off 9ema, it could be just a PR of some sorts that rockets it again. 

IDSA, hopefully you played it like us and are sitting free of it this weekend.  If you didn't cash out with another late day opportunity over $15 Friday, well then you don't wanna hear this again, "you might be heading for a disappointment come Friday 4pm with some opportunities missed in other places".  It was quite disappointing from a distance looking in on this, not only did not close over $15, it was a feeble effort to do so late in the day.  On the hand,  it was also a disappointment it didn't crash late in the day off the 'exclusion' of not even holding $15, so we could buy back in the $13's and do it all over again next    We might just have to anyway!.   Instead it was last months, IBD inclusion play at DJIM, SPEC showing it up and taking IDSA's thunder and making it to #25. 

Other earning names from this Q, we have secondary scattered positions or trading/ eyeing still...VSEA, NTLS, WST, SSYS, CUB, ADPI, ALGN, TRCR to go with usual suspects  BTJ, DXPE, MFW *EPS out Friday AH, CPY.  This pretty well rounds out our trading crop this Q.  

Keep an eye on GROW in the morning off EPS....with Gold being up up as much as 15%(approx) this year at one point, you'd think they had influx of funds into their precious metals last Q and would produce a kick ass report.   But, we are not here to think, we are here to 'DO' and act. So we wait for the report.

Yeah..Yeah our Raps lost..great game! ....but our Raptor claw logo has taken a chunk of the market while up and we ain't messin' or are we knockin' the little good luck charm off the site for now!...