Ahead of the open, (14-02)

Market simply reverted back to its 2012 ‘in the game’ ways.  If the investor doesn’t hold overnight, the investor misses on most of the day’s rally as it’s usually all in the morning gap.  If one doesn’t buy the shallow dips, one misses more opportunities to be ‘in the game’.  Although momentum always stalls after gaps, the market feels like SP 1370’s has a magnet attached to it pulling stocks back up from very shallow dips.

As the market retraced all it’s losses from Friday, you have ask what all the noise was about on Friday.  The austerity package passed this weekend as speculated.  All the Euro group wanted on Friday was for this occur to kick off negotiations.  All in, the noise will likely pick up with ‘negotiations’ as soon as Wednesday (finance ministers meet) and last till late (redemption date) March!.

As far as the underlying sectors, all the right groups led on the upside and single stock action from earnings related names this Q continues to be favorable with many new names hitting fresh highs. Names noted include:

...TDG, HAR, TRMB, THO… (IACI AZPN  FTNT FIRE  LQDT  MKSI  N PMTC  URI  LULU etc.),  while other names just confirmed they should remain on the list for yet another year, if this Q’s # is any indication, ie: (WYNN  LVS  PII  FFIV  FOSL  UA  CRM  MA DDD OTEX etc.)

Ahead of the open, (23-03)

Is this time going to be any different?.  Do the markets do a 3-peat in Q1?   

As the market (SP) closes lower for a third straight day, (~26 SP handles from ’12 intraday highs to today’s low), we ask if it will turn out like the 2 other shallow pullbacks this year?.  The last pullback and reversal is still pretty vivid here,  “…what happened was only a repeat (shallow pullback) of January’s 3 day/~35 SP handle drop, including a 200+DJIA decline day followed by a complete reversal to within 4pts of February highs."

The premise in early March,..” ..'Ahead of the open’ with the market at weeks low of SP1340 with NFP just 2 trading days away, asked, “Question now, is it better to wait on NFP#’s now or buy the dip now below broken support???.   And concluded with, ...“Still, if you believe in the recovery, it's hard not to get in on a ~35SP move off highs in front of the NFP# sooner than later”.  If an investor missed the ~65 SP point ride that followed in March, how long can you stay away this time?.   Some of the old culprits in the last pullback have returned with China, leading ‘a commodity swoon’ once again today.  Did they ever go away?  Basically, the same concerns discussed all month here are ringing through the marketplace today with the ‘risk off’ trade paying the price…sometimes it’s the Precious metals etc, today it was crude, base metals, but all in, it’s still a commodity demand worry linked sell-off. 

But, one thing that remains constant is the idea, “On 01/03 noted the possibility  ...”A commodity led correction, but not necessarily one that will take equities down very much!”.   Despite the selling in materials, steels, coals etc. today, the IBM type mega tech caps, internets, consumer stocks performed very well indicating equities are hard to take down as money flows through equity groups.  Although RUT gapped down and underperformed, listed names here covering a broad range all finished green with many others only marginally in the red. (ie. ULTA FOSL LVS  LULU  PCLN  N FFIV  V  PMTC BIDU  SXCI  LQDT)

All in, the market got something to talk about, but in the end the same trends remain until/unless more concrete data hits.  Example,(same trend), Initial claims was another robust # bringing in another fresh cycle low. (4wk avg.). 

The market ‘headlines’ and it’s gurus did their best to alarm the ‘Bull’ with the remix of the old hit..Hard ' China' landing and Eurozone recession fears.  It seems a .5 to .7% drop on the major indices is really a big deal today.  It’s almost comical.  Starting the "Ahead of the open' with “Do the markets do a 3-peat”  is even comical as the market is not even through stage 1 of a true 3-peat play(of ~35 handles).  It’s only been hit~26 SP pts. (H to L), so far!.   Incidentally, a trip of 10 more pts would take it to February highs and mark another ~35 ‘shallow’ pullback.  A few other supports are in the 1370’s.  It would’ve been ideal spot for dip buyers to pounce for month/Q end window dressing, but no such luck today!.