Ahead of the open, (11-01)

Despite Alcoa kicking off earnings season with its first loss in a few years, plus JNPR, TIF lowering guidance, a Global melt up of ~1-2% in most markets ensued with no clear catalyst/news to most in premarket.  In this view, our wary over China was lifted for the time being as its market put back to back gains equalling 5.6%.  As traders, we look ahead for potential catalysts; in this case it was concerns easing over China. A 2.8% Shang’ rally on Monday says that, but was ignored by the markets on Monday. If you were watching China and see a substantial rally, you don’t miss the gap up on day 2 of rally.  Today, China negative data brought back RRR  cut ‘easing’ speculation (again)+ no ‘hard landing’ speak fueled risk sentiment,  notably in commodities linked stocks overshadowing AA inline earnings. 

On the earnings front,

“…into a highly negative pre-announcement (tech linked) season.  The beginning was caught here in December and it escalated into 2012.  The good thing is this is all priced into the tech market, so no shock and awe this reporting season in tech.  If companies provide better guidance beyond March and for 2012 as a whole, they will be rewarded.” ..Into the trading, (Jan 9- )

JNPR, (not Shadowed here)  finally succumbed to a pre-announcement as tech peers, but AH’s losses turning into gains suggests ‘priced in’ as speculated. Unfortunately, there is no bright visibility (guidance), yet.

In all, expectations may be reduced on earnings broadly, not just tech. This is a positive as analyst earnings are seemingly greater than co’s cuts allowing for ‘beat’ surprises and better than feared earning results=  positive reactions on stock prices. Basically, ‘beats’ will be bought more than usual generating higher stock prices immediately following results and dips will be generally bought.

LULU, guided higher and spiked accordingly.

Ahead of the open, (03-02)

Post Wednesday’s close, noted the very broad based rally that touched even the 'safety' sectors.  The consensus view into the overnight markets was for a follow through day based on the PMI's and Financial leadership (Wednesday) touched on here.  This stretched out to chartists due to RUT, SMH outperformance 2:1 vs. DJIA, SPX , to fresh high's and overall volume pick up indicating accumulation.  The runway was clear for an upwards move.  Yes, these indicators (above) are the usual suspects we’d usually like to see and/or usually see create a breakout (eventually to SPX 1350’s this time, if it occurs).  But, as pointed out since 1333 SPX was hit last Thursday morning and yesterday, the market is in a range tug of war and churning away.  (Do note 1333 trend-line has inched down to 1327’ish), so a take -off seemed imminent, but instead the market decided to take another pause.(ES volume was well below average).   Still, sometimes too much digestion /consolidation leads to fatigue setting in after an elongated range trade.  We could be coming up to that with Friday’s NFP# serving as a catalyst, although it’s not a critical number.  Also, despite evidence of fresh money coming into market yesterday at the beginning of the new month as discussed, it is not necessarily an indication this is the same money that will chase another potential leg up, but instead one that just wants be in the game and live with the little risk in the market.  This type of money also prefers to buy the dips to add.  Considering no market day has had more than a half percent SP downside since December, it’s been a pretty safe environment in 2011, so why not be invested is what that money was likely thinking.  Also, as discussed in early January, it’s best to be invested or miss any good day now as most of market day gains are from morning ‘gap ups’ with little action afterwards like yesterday showed again.   Although, belief is we will break out eventually, it would be healthy if it was later after a correction and not just a shallow pullback (~1.5%) like we’ve seen to the 20ma/1300SPX. 

A few things have played out since 1333 was hit a week ago and the noted top chance:

• Jan24: “..pullbacks will be shallow and will be bought..” (we hit 1300/20MA),..Jan 26, “…SP 1315 close becomes support”..(mkt never closed 1-2pt lower…”closing at ~1315 level negating any real technical damage”..Jan31);. Into Jan 30, “pullback depends if 1306 is defended”..(it’s bounced a few times off this level this week).  These market actions just confirm the markets resilience and presence of dip buyers, also we’ve added 8-9 stocks off earnings to trade off during this range as was the idea until the broad market settles itself…”In this environment, it is probably best to lessen exposure if holding all month and concentrate on single stocks coming out with earnings going forward.”. Jan25.

So while the broad market deliberates, we comprise a list of stocks to trade based on individual earnings in the 1st Q .  We can trade the names now and with confidence further into the year and not worry if the broad market breaks out or not here.  Names accumulated this Q off earnings are mostly previous inclusions; (IACI AZPN  FTNT  LQDT  MKSI  FIRE PMTC  URI  LULU etc.),  while other names just confirmed they should remain on the list for yet another year, if this Q’s # is any indication, ie: (WYNN  LVS  PII  FFIV  FOSL  UA  CRM  VMI MA OTEX  DDD etc.).

As said recently, ‘all good’ seems to be priced in from recent eco’ data exuberance to what was a mediocre earnings season at best to a Eurozone coming out of the hospital.  Another way to look at it is it will be hard for economic data points to surprise  as the bar has been set high, earning trends are known from this Q and we’re a Q away from next and there is more chance of a surprise Eurozone bomb then more morphine to be given out. (We’ll cover the morphine angle with another round of LTRO end of February and ECB’s Super Mario conference next week at a later time).  

If evidence intraday of a 1330+ close post NFP#(150-160k private), we’d add some exposure into weekekend, (*upside surprise could be faded), otherwise keep the top idea in play by concentrating on single stocks coming out of earnings. 

• N, TRMB, SIMO, THO are some to watch early following earnings.  N,SIMO are familiar here, others like TRMB, THO are to spread a trading list into more cyclical plays this year.

Ahead of the open, (02-03)

After an eye opening commodity slide Wednesday morning, all the market needed was a good night’s dream about buying the good ole’ dip.   Of course, it wasn’t all that, but when you’re an investor/trader confused about ‘free money’ awash in the markets vs. economic growth dilemma going forward, hey just buy the dip and move on!.   The above question will linger on; can markets live with one and not the other and/or how much of each is sufficient to keep markets rolling.   This should be enough to drive one crazy with over analysis in the weeks to come.  In this view,  …”Overall, accommodative policy is still very much in place”…and economic growth is sufficient enough at this point, so not going to fret over it.  Sort of like the premise here for months of being cognizant of European headlines, but don’t let it keep you away from equities.

An interesting reaction to eco' data today. As said for days, economic ‘better than expected’ has probably had its day in the short term.  Besides the Initial claims today, (whose 4 week average has dropped by a significant 20K since the end of January), other data in the US is coming in softer this week.  Yes, the US ISM was a surprise considering almost all regionals were strong in February.  Durable goods, real consumption were softer too, yet market tried to hit fresh highs intraday signifying a belief by investors of the recovery holding.  Recall, noted earlier Global PMI gains would need to be consolidated following last ‘flash PMI’s and that’s what it looks like has happened again, here and abroad…. “… It (PMI’s) won’t be enough to buoy the markets, but aren’t a concern as last month’s jump needs to be digested….” Feb 22.  All in, it looks like it’s all about ‘Jobs, Jobs’ into March 9 allowing ‘softer’ data to be a blip for now.  Today’s tape almost going back to yesterday’s highs intraday is almost a disappointment as chance for a shallow pullback to buy into NFP# was short lived as Bears were unable to stir things up for longer than an hour or two. (after no promises of morphine and what could have been construed as disappointing data today.)  Instead, a potentially robust NFP# becomes the focus giving little chance to a pullback beforehand now and instead likely more upside risk.

Overall, the day started very encouragingly. Transports continued the reversal noted last week, single stock action in the RUT was very good with many names followed hitting fresh 2012 highs or flirting with such on 3-5% gains, which have become a rarity… ie.WYNN PII LULU UA IACI FOSL LVS FTNT and outside the group the momo/earnings, GS JPM might be prelude to more upside ahead in the Financials.  This is the kind of action you like to see and the type we’ve been waiting for as discussed lately. (including disappointing RUT vs. SP performance of late.)  Unfortunately, RUT gave up 10pts after 2pm and ended up lagging once again, while SP, NASDAQ managed to keep gains.  Still, as long as closely followed stocks here perform, the mixed signals even in the RUT are better ignored.

Ahead of the open, (23-03)

Is this time going to be any different?.  Do the markets do a 3-peat in Q1?   

As the market (SP) closes lower for a third straight day, (~26 SP handles from ’12 intraday highs to today’s low), we ask if it will turn out like the 2 other shallow pullbacks this year?.  The last pullback and reversal is still pretty vivid here,  “…what happened was only a repeat (shallow pullback) of January’s 3 day/~35 SP handle drop, including a 200+DJIA decline day followed by a complete reversal to within 4pts of February highs."

The premise in early March,..” ..'Ahead of the open’ with the market at weeks low of SP1340 with NFP just 2 trading days away, asked, “Question now, is it better to wait on NFP#’s now or buy the dip now below broken support???.   And concluded with, ...“Still, if you believe in the recovery, it's hard not to get in on a ~35SP move off highs in front of the NFP# sooner than later”.  If an investor missed the ~65 SP point ride that followed in March, how long can you stay away this time?.   Some of the old culprits in the last pullback have returned with China, leading ‘a commodity swoon’ once again today.  Did they ever go away?  Basically, the same concerns discussed all month here are ringing through the marketplace today with the ‘risk off’ trade paying the price…sometimes it’s the Precious metals etc, today it was crude, base metals, but all in, it’s still a commodity demand worry linked sell-off. 

But, one thing that remains constant is the idea, “On 01/03 noted the possibility  ...”A commodity led correction, but not necessarily one that will take equities down very much!”.   Despite the selling in materials, steels, coals etc. today, the IBM type mega tech caps, internets, consumer stocks performed very well indicating equities are hard to take down as money flows through equity groups.  Although RUT gapped down and underperformed, listed names here covering a broad range all finished green with many others only marginally in the red. (ie. ULTA FOSL LVS  LULU  PCLN  N FFIV  V  PMTC BIDU  SXCI  LQDT)

All in, the market got something to talk about, but in the end the same trends remain until/unless more concrete data hits.  Example,(same trend), Initial claims was another robust # bringing in another fresh cycle low. (4wk avg.). 

The market ‘headlines’ and it’s gurus did their best to alarm the ‘Bull’ with the remix of the old hit..Hard ' China' landing and Eurozone recession fears.  It seems a .5 to .7% drop on the major indices is really a big deal today.  It’s almost comical.  Starting the "Ahead of the open' with “Do the markets do a 3-peat”  is even comical as the market is not even through stage 1 of a true 3-peat play(of ~35 handles).  It’s only been hit~26 SP pts. (H to L), so far!.   Incidentally, a trip of 10 more pts would take it to February highs and mark another ~35 ‘shallow’ pullback.  A few other supports are in the 1370’s.  It would’ve been ideal spot for dip buyers to pounce for month/Q end window dressing, but no such luck today!.

Ahead of the open, (13-04)

Wonder how many were making lunch plans before the opening bell not expecting much action?.   It probably didn’t look all that promising for ‘longs’ post Initial Claims # coming in higher than expectations, while shorts positioned at yesterday’s SP 1370’s levels were likely thinking Wednesday's intraday flat line and close at lows was foreshadowing a dead cat bounce at (1370) resistance.  Oh well..

DJIA +180, SP +19, NASD +39 day has many ‘longs and shorts’  scratching their heads of how the strong gains extended for a second consecutive day.  I’d like to think it was simple as a lead into ‘Ahead of the open’… “Still, SP 1370 wasn't so formidable on the downside and the same may be true to the upside, if just a little buying comes in the next 2 days.  Any fresh shorts at this level will likely pull the plug quickly”.  The premise was that the break of SP 1370 was too easy.  The fact fresh shorts would come in here would seem natural considering market fell all the way to SP1258.  Also, many shorts were likely caught of guard due to the speed of markets falling this week, so SP1370'ish flat-line yesterday was seemingly perfect to lay out fresh exposure if you missed the fast downside.  But, (if) any good fixes hit, longs would push them to pull the plug quickly.  That’s pretty well what happened today, once the market opened and 1370 was regained early, it didn’t take much time for longs to run the new shorts out to pasture. 

Yesterday, pointed out some  small ’fixes’, today we had EU yields down again, Italian auctions were not as bad as Spain’s recent, calming the market to start the day and some more U.S  ‘fixes’ in upside earnings, TSCO, WAB to start the day, eco data (we pointed out International trade for first time last weekend as an eco' data point /GDP now will be revised for Q1 after today’s #). <Funny, Kudlow opened with this trade# tonight.   But, maybe the biggest ‘fix’ that got longs in and shorts realizing the upside risks were hitting them across the head was China GDP whispers of 9% out tonight after a slew of data overnight came in better.  Also, a WSJ article on coal bottoming also helped the commodity field.  Doubt GDP will come in as high as the whisper above (consensus is 8.4), but if it’s anywhere around 8.5%, commodity linked stocks can be picked at/traded again after taking March off.

This was redemption day for some long traders who didn’t see gains if buying post-opening gap yesterday.  Today, you were generously rewarded for yesterday's buys and/or you could have bought stocks flat or red and come out with nice gains as the market climbed steadily from SP1368 to 1388, start to a strong finish. Complete opposite of Wednesday's action.

Post Tuesday’s abysmal day, we discussed the potential of upside risks if ‘fixes’ started coming in.  Well, some fix has hit every aspect of the Bears case since…China, EU, eco’data/ earnings.   Interestingly, both days had shorts covering in different ways. Those already in overnight after Tuesday’s big losses likely covered at the gap open Wednesday and/or later joined those who threw in fresh shorts in the 1370’s Wednesday also ran today. It’s hard to know how many real longs are into this to get past SP1400.  More data is still needed. 

Also, the first negative turn on Wednesday (before many of the stocks here finally started to see some losses) was the growth retailers that started to pause out in the morning.  Today, this group lagged a second rally day with most generally flat on the day ..LULU FOSL UA RL PVH VFC ULTA KORS.  This retail bunch could be a key to watch for market clues here, maybe China retail #’s overnight will kick these into gear.

Ahead of the open, (24-04)

Any surprise to see fresh European complications emerge and set the market tone?. No, but yes when it’s the ‘Dutch’ turning the trick after failing to reach a budget deal.   Late last week, noted, “Unfortunately, besides Spain woes likely to continue, market is beginning to focus on upcoming elections (France, Greece).   Well, it seems the Dutch jumped the gun and put itself in the middle of the political uncertainty landscape.  No doubt the downfall of an ally ‘AAA’ government is significant, but to draw U.S market conclusions is too early.   Today’s fear is Germany will lose 2 ‘debt crisis’ leader allies in France/ Netherlands and things will unravel. Also, EU PMI’s showed contraction picked up in April and compounds the fiscal budget/ GDP picture. Although billions of market cap were wiped out in Europe (~3% DJ Euro’ Comp), SP managed to pare losses off April lows and close at SP1366.  

Of course, “China who?”, flash PMI gets overlooked.  Although still under 50, inside there was broad improvement.( ie.new and export orders)

Instead of a bad close or volume intraday ramp down through supports (wedges, flags), we got a gap down, which allows for a gap fill trade.  As for intraday, the gap forced some to cover and lifted market well off lows.  If the wedges, flags were broken intraday, shorts would have pressed and more longs would have exited.  Instead, today was slow and not panicky, Shadowlist components held up well, (Financials, GS/JPM were flat decoupling from Euro financials and quite a few growth retailers/ consumers did okay, KORS LULU PVH VFC)

All in, we’ve probably seen nothing yet as far as volatility this week.

Ahead of the open, (27-04)

Market doubled its day gains post noon hour as upward bias once again caught people flat footed and chasing into the afternoon/close.  Yesterday, noted the upside risks and also potential to reclaim SP1400, starting with a better than expected Initial claims.  Well, seems market didn’t mind initial claims disappointing, maybe because spike in Pending home #'s took some of the heat off recent related data.  Still, the spin is likely that a disappointing I.C # put some QE back on table following Bernanke’s remarks on FOMC day.  All QE asset classes rising together signal this. 

  

All in, SP got over 1392 range top on most radars, a second day over 20ma, RUT pushing over 20ma.  Most stocks escaped ‘inside day’ on charts noted yesterday.  A little digestion of 3% uptick since Monday’s low is in order, but mentality should revert to buying the dips, which eventually would allow for SP 1400 to be reclaimed.

  

GTLS, EQIX  were earnings winners off the Shadowlist, gaining 10% and 13% respectively.  LVS, more of a momo’ stock caught the selloff draft despite good EPS as many names recently noted.

   

Retail earnings heats up in May, but a few small/mid- caps coming in early were pretty positive today.  Most retail links off Shadowlist put in >2% gains (KORS, VRA, LULU, FOSL , RL). Those names keep list balanced and at max. ~45 equities, other retail closely followed like COH VFC  PVH TIF  are never far away to mix in the group

Ahead of the open, (03-05)

Considering how much was made of the previous sessions mid -day slide, it was no surprise to see ES continuing its slide and almost entirely wipe out ISM gains.  Some follow through was inevitable as Europe was coming off holidays with region soft eco’ #’s(inline) to help the late U.S  day sour sentiment drag.   The ADP# falling short of expectations didn’t help, but it was hardly a surprise considering how labor data has come in.  Also, consensus for NFP# has declined to ~160K this week, although even a lower # might be the ‘real’ market expectation following ADP.  The U.S PMI was a nice surprise ‘relief’ indicating the economy is not falling off a cliff, still an improvement sequentially in Initial claims/ NFP is what the market ‘longs’ really want.

  

As noted the previous 2 days, each sell-off and ‘market is falling apart at seams’ chatter had no merit here.  Today’s dip to a low of SP1393 and close of 1402 continues to reinforce the premise . .” A little digestion of 3% uptick since Monday’s low is in order, but mentality should revert to buying the dips, which eventually would allow for SP 1400 to be reclaimed”.  We do have the consecutive closes over SP1400, but it's not a done deal to say it's reclaimed to see new highs, just yet.  Still, holding SP1293 is a positive.

 

Our Shadowlisted retail names continue to roll as Consumer links outperform broader market, fresh highs hit by LULU, PVH, VFC….. UA RL KORS FOSL not far away.

  

A ‘ Eurozone’ wildcard this week for upside risk exists if ECB meeting reveals an openness to rate cuts, Spain deal if done right.