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Entries in Debt ceiling (3)



Positive is market held 1310 close for a 3rd consecutive day. (note 20ma has moved up this week to 1315’ish.). Most will see the reversal today of some 150 DJIA, ~30 Nasd , 14 SPX points to highs of day as a positive, but if you glanced at the Shadowlist or any watchlist, you should notice single stocks were doing nothing.   These same single stocks weren’t hit on way to 1302 SPX and it’s no surprise they didn’t move to upside on the reversal crawl during the day.   This exemplifies a ES/ETF trade as real money remains sidelined in a cautious mode, while fast traders churn the ES futures/ETF’s.  It’s a boycott in the market by both sides really as shorts are unwilling to pressure the tape lower allowing support to hold up quite easily and even bounce some.  It would be a surprise if the market got any meaningful follow through on a Friday due to this type of action seen today.

The early blame game was on the euro debt situation (Greece)showing up almost a year later to the day.   Firstly, in this view it’s an excuse as plans won’t change the way the situation stands now and so it’s importance is overblown today.  The main issues for the market right now is with U.S govt (debt ceiling, we can add the Senate paper on GS for some spice) and earnings that has this market in a deadlock! 

Also, a bigger issue than Europe today is some of the recent eco data that is clouding the picture some (jobless claims today).  As yesterday, not sure who won today either, but if anybody is blowing it, it’s the shorts not taking advantage of all headwinds in the Bull’s faces today to create a bigger setback.

Rally, if this gets clearer….overhangs

  • Debt ceiling debate, congress goes on holiday’s next week till May
  • Earnings reactions improve and/or start seeing nice upside beats/outlooks       

 *Today, semi FCS  upped guidance strongly and said guidance for upcoming was already ‘fully booked’, yet the stock sold off due to CEO saying impact of Japan are unknown.  Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.



DJIM #16  2011

Heading into DJIM #15 week, it was noted the market didn’t really know what's going on the corporate front (earnings) from recent indicators (Japan impact/ some smaller co’s earnings/ data points).  

A week later and disappointments from AA JPM GOOG BACK INFY , hardly resolved anything, although just looking back at those pretty big names covering a broad view of sectors, many are left scratching their heads as to how the market didn’t resolve itself more than .5% to the downside by week close. (Unfortunately, single stocks didn’t find ‘elusive bid’ to close above 1321 as per follow up Fri.morning comment).  

Add, big Washington question marks (debt ceiling), Euro debt déjà vu and Bears must be thinking what's it going to take to get longs to sell holdings?.  They already know their comrades are incapable of pressing as the market just tested a cluster of support this week and instead bounced.  Also for good measure, let’s note the fact 4 of above corporations announced just in the last 24 trading hours and the market still managed to rally some ~12 SPX pts from overnight lows.  Okay, let’s also add ‘safety' sectors outperforming and most likely go ‘Huh’?. 

Is it just the same Bull market resiliency we’ve discussed for 2 years now or is this market just waiting to reach a crescendo of headwinds and buckle its knees in a late April correction (..As said last week, investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that”,  early April.  Also, recall, post- Japan/surging oil, Global ISM’s pleasantly held up, but it was noted here they could just be delayed and be terrible once April #’s released.  Question is, what if they aren’t terrible?. What if Washington makes headway during it’s recess on debt ceiling legislation? (which it still can prior to May 1).  What if earnings/outlooks start to come through as we hit the majority of SP500 co’s in the next 2 weeks?.   Well, folks..'what if's' in this business is called “UPSIDE RISK”.  Shorts fear it and the big money knows it can rally the market, so they wait on the sidelines for any of these potential catalytic events.  

All in, murky broad market waters, but DJIM emphasis has always been on single stock selection linked to earnings and as we head into the eye of earnings season, we’ll concentrate on building on fresh and/or re- initiations of successful Q1 names off earnings and not worry so much about the big picture, ie,  TDSC  CRR  IPGP  MSTR  WTW TBL 

..and others like, GTLS SXCI SFLY WFMI ININ OPNT KEYN  (you can click highlighted symbol on site for charts)

NCH-new closing highs: WTW SFLY WYNN  MCP SINA  KEYN (Shadowlisted)

Apr282011 it over yet?

The earnings momentum engine was losing some steam before market open (BMO), but no one noticed luckily as the Bernanke show overshadowed today’s lacklustre earnings. Simply, the very positive results from Tuesday couldn’t be matched, it’s best that earning reports today took a backseat.  As far as the ‘show’, it’s contents minus any potential screw up by Bernanke were released at lunch hour and market responded positively as everything and anything dovish is ‘easy money’ and was ‘confirmed’.  The USD started to get whacked lower at 12:30 and that was the tale to be for rest of day.  As much as this conference was and will remain fodder for debate, the reality is it was a non-event.  If austerity was 2010 word of the year, one of 2011 finalist might be ‘transitory’ after today. Enough said, let's move on, it's over with. 

This week’s enthusiasm for earnings and FED likely gets digested for rest of week after hitting SP 1355 level. Attention should turn to big April eco data/Macro starting next week, including ‘debt ceiling’ noise as recess concludes.


Commodities –  The beneficiaries today were clearly the PM’s as they exploded higher.  As far as everything else, Copper was weak and base metal stocks (coals, steels) didn’t participate in the USD plunge and underperformed.  Nobody is talking about the Shanghai now, but the 4-5 consecutive down days and technically negative below 50ma is something to monitor for our markets and commodity groups (possibly more tightening on it’s way)

Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  There is a lot of discrepancies in how tech linked names react to earning, so it’s hard to know what may run or not.  APKT  ran off a disappointing guidance that only matched their 'own' guidance, while a peer ININ  beat Tuesday and gets sold off.  KEYN  is another one that should have done better today as well as BIDU after hours.   AMZN  likely confused a few in it’s impressive comeback. Opticals, JDSU and FNSR  (noted here recently for eyeing gap) outperformed.