DJIM holds/ hit list week #9

As the NFL takes on week #6, DJIM is on #9 running nose to nose with Da' Bears on record and the PF/PA spread, we are about collecting points except we are da' Bulls....After 8 weeks of solid gains including catching 9 moves of 25% and up since late August, we are quietly sitting with skeleton shares or none at all with most on our list waiting for a new earnings play(s) to come forward... or a bust out move like we recently had in AZZ, DGIT even if it is short lived from the ones on our list. These include some long followed DJIM's...CPY since $ 43,CETV from $60, MR an IPO.  So far the big names earnings releases are outperforming the 1 Alcoa, so things ahead look promising but that could change with one report as previously discussed. In the meantime, we will try catch a move here and there like BVX last week. Nothing new is worth taking on this weekend with the expectation of giving us a move DJIM style.

ACOR as per Market chat comments is one we still look to trade once some PR flow kicks in again.

EDU which is on its second DJIM run from $22 has earnings this week. Again, we don't hold into earnings but we will jump again if it is to our liking.                                          

RIMM, CETV, CPY all 10%+ DJIM's are all near tops which we want broken to add. We hold skeleton shares of these between us and will add if the tops look to be taken out. Exits are pretty clear on the charts for most of the DJIM's.  EML might be starting its crawl.

TRT has provided plenty of opportunity for those following since DJIM alert at $8+, we'll wait out the games and look for confirmation to go back hard. A start would be a close above the 9ema.

In between we look for DIVX, RVBD and now APKT to provide almost daily opportunities in the tech IPO fever. Some other names previously on the DJ Journal ANST,SIM,CSH, NEU also had a good week. Hopefully, after 8 weeks these names have made it to your lists. The point of our lists from week to week is so you may assemble a list of your own to concentrate on from what we trade and follow..... saving you lots of grunt work but still doing your own DD on the listed before making a trading decision.

Charts updated at BT charts....ACOR, AZZ, BVX, DGIT, EDU, EML, RIMM, TRT and the NDX

What's "GREEN"?

...and up nicely to boot...between Journal and Market chat from yesterday ...ATNI, SYNL, MR, APKT.  Being selective means going with 'fresh' strength.

DJIM hold/ hit list wk #12.....incl. BRLC PVA SINA TWLL RVBD

Market is still going through a consolidation phase, and it still means that the priority for us is the capital preservation.    However, it doesn't mean that we'll be shying away from good trading opportunities, and it'd be irresponsible if we don't trade them.      What we at DJIM here stress is that in a time like this, we'd only trade what we think are the best of the best setups and leave the iffy ones alone.    We also do keep our trading time frame per play to a conservative level where we'd take profit on small increments, a $1/point here and there and not get carried away with big positions on any one stock.   We can't wait for 25%+ DJIM benchmark these days, so taking 5 -10% quickly is fine with us.  This style is definitely more difficult to trade compared to riding a few big winners that can offset any small losses from other trades.   We are literally trying to basically do with only the most probable plays, with the least risk.   This comes in the form of stocks with a earnings base for DJIM.  We've heard that many traders around various chat room, blogs surprisingly under performed in October.  We're not sure the path they have taken but we've taken/followed the uptrend path here at DJIM.   Well, unfortunately this game isn't an easy business so only time can tell whether one is cut out to do this for a living, or not.    Here are some recent plays...

The week provided some nice intraday trades off our extended trading thread...CASM, LMRA back to back days in Market Chat.  The first 3 below were mentioned in pre market yesterday. The market survived the eco numbers and some of these provided nice entries off earnings.

TWLL....     This one gave us a little surprise late afternoon as it came on with strong volume and then some follow through, finishing with a NCH.   The earning action definitely looks very strong and we think it may catch some attention around the trading circle.  See more below on TWLL.

BRLC..surprisingly this one traded down to $7.01 after multiple upgrades, a healthy price target of $14 by BMurray after beating estimates handily....7c vs.1 c estimate, revenues climbed 3x.      How this one is going to trade is still remaining to be seen.    Usually when it gaps up like that with that kind of volume, you'd see some more upside down the road.

SINA beat by .5, upped revenue G, multiple price upgrades in the morning and then closes gap to Thursdays close before EPS. That was a Friday morning gift to have a stock with so many positives only trade 1% higher in the morning.  If stocks that beat by .5, raise guidance and only move 1% up, we'd be out of the trading business real fast.!.  We'd be happy with a test of $30 here. The first two might have the better upside in the near term as far as collecting points, profits.

MR, stock had another nch(new closing high) on Friday and we are very encouraged by its action.   This stock is due to release its earning on Nov. 16th and we think there's going to be a pre-earning run-up play.     In last week's DJIM #11, we discussed the further play we were looking for after selling. Monday was a further drop and soon we were sitting on the 9ema ready for another move up.

PVA ..a  O&G/coal.....started to watch closely Thursday off earnings ($1.21 v 1.06). More below on Penn Virginia Cp.

BTJ, it seems a lot of the oil service stocks are perking up lately, there is always something to fuel it..yesterday was one of those days.  This one also made it to IBD100 as #19.   See last weeks DJIM wk #11 for our buy in below $16 , the play we were looking for and got Friday.   We are keeping an eye on ALY as well.

EDU, Chinese stocks immune to the pullback?  Perhaps!   We are certainly seeing strength in many of the Chinese stocks on our trading list.

RVBD, this is one of the techs that broke out on Friday, one of the few techs that are standing out in our opinion. We still can't decide between the APKT, RVBD, DIVX...IPO's.... all we know is they provide plenty of trading opp's at this time, figuring out which will be the champ longer term is anyone's guess. Right now..there is a new champ every week in this IPO tech game.

Speaking of champs, we threw out ATNI at the open mid week ...she was a champ going from $21 area to $24 for many DJIM readers in a few days. We took a lot off near $24 as it seemed a bit tired late in the week. The numbers look great and we look for more out of ATNI. This is a relatively unknown stock, we hope and by the early volume off earnings we think this may be on a few trading lists soon.

RIMM,APH,UCTT round out our lists.  As per BT's charts, ACOR proved it couldn't handle its weight. Looks like many were expecting something out of the CC to fuel it. It didn't happen and many sold off. Still we'll keep this one around DJIM and hope for a news spark.

SYNL, EML are two DJIM profiled quality EPS crawlers..these are for the ones that like their sleep.

So, it seems that we have quite a few new plays on our hand after cleaning house late October. We are basically trying to play the best setups and again keeping our time frame short.   Until the market mood improves or we get a great earnings winner, this is the way we are going to be trading.

Was SNCR 40% better?

Not really...but it gives a good lesson.. a reminder of what we do with eps reports.

As it turned out, a heads up on APKT and SNCR together before earnings last night proved to be quite the example . Simply..we believe that the best money management is not holding into these calls.....Isn't just easier to recognize a good report, most importantly one that the market is happy with and go from there.  We also don't believe in chasing until the volume/trend tells us enough. Take yesterdays premarket notes on FTEK, BVX.   If you chase too early, you might end up on the wrong horse.    Back to holding into earnings..... Waking to a 20% drop in APKT or buying SNCR early, say low $11's and watching it go up another 10+%?....which will it be?.   Just like TWLL, SNCR was introduced early on the DJJournal...congrats to those that have held through after doing enough DD to realize these are more than short term trading tools. DJIM goal is to find this combination, a quality tradeable company with earnings. Something that attracts and fits, both the trader and longer term investor. 

If the trend continues, APKT will go through the same exercise DIVX and to a lesser extent RVBD has gone through.   We expect to see APKT back on the DJIM trading block very soon, maybe even tomorrow..lol