..worse on the inside..

If you look only at the final boxscore…DJIA -1,Naz -14, SPX -1.8%, you would think it was a pretty uneventful day. Unfortunately, if you go to the underlying sectors/ stocks you see a whole different picture.  Simply, all the important components of the market lagged quite badly. First and worst was the SOX (-3%) as collateral damage (networking stocks, telecom equip. etc.) occurred from the Opticals as China was blamed in FNSR weak guide.  There was more weakness in cyclicals such as materials, industrials. Here you see weakness in the widely followed steel, coal stocks.  Unfortunately, the financials couldn’t make it back to back ‘good’ days (but still decent), but that’s hardly a shock as expressed yesterday.  There’s some talk of rotation starting from tech to financials, but there needs to be a bigger ‘catalyst’ then BAC it would seem. In all, just another day in the no-fly zone for the broad market with nothing to add as a long trade possibility within the Shadowlist and it's components.

..in techs hands to continue..

Clearly, Tech is showing relative strength and leading the way as the next leg in the recovery from 1250SPX. The DJIM premise entering the week,…”we are watching for corporate earnings to better the situation for high beta/ tech anxieties to possibly dampen the negative sentiment.  This is likely to be the focus and most important factor in continuing this reversal”.   The dominos have fallen in sync to what has been cited this week..”we need to see some comforting tech words ahead this week so investors see value oppy' here next.  Simply, this where we'd look now for a long trade to materialize.” (pre-Tuesday trade).  JBL initiating the better sentiment followed by RHT,MU and tonight ORCL/ACN paving the way as the Japan overhang has began to recede.  Also, as noted yesterday market shrugs off negative newsflow once again today, always a good sign.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 -  Cited the the damage from SANM, naturally JBL report has reversed this as Opticals had a 2^nd good day as FNSR, JDSU  +5% days on the heels of IPGP  big day yesterday. Although, previous days leaders APKT RVBD  etc lagged today, others momo’ likes CRM VMW  and even '11 momo' NVDA took over with ~6% gains.  Simply, the earnings and what management is saying on the little material impact it sees in regards to Japan tech worries is causing collateral bids in tech linked names. 

Up in the air (earnings)...

The immediate morning question was can the market build on the premarket pop and Global rebound occurring overnight. The problem premise here recently is that besides no conviction buying stepping up when we need it, we don’t have shorts laying out exposure in this recent melt up or on this downturn to 20ma to make a move sustainable higher.   So following this idea, logical expectation was once again some short covering early followed by little or no buy conviction at all coming off the sidelines. Therefore, a short covering would only be short lived because there are not enough shorts in the market, no longs to buy, so the bounce would peter out.  An hour into the trading day this was evident as SPX gains were erased, by close it was even more clear the premise once again worked itself out.

In all, not sure who won today!. The Bears should have closed the market lower if you look at JPM, ASML, ADTN earnings reactions (more on this below).  On the other hand, Bulls didn’t get positive reactions off headline #’s which were solid, yet finished at par in the broad market with earnings supposedly disappointing.  Screwy day as cautiousness towards earnings is still prevalent on investors minds, so they wait for more reports to make investing decisions.  Today's results left it up in the air.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  , Yesterday it was noted the tech group needs some good news.  All the market got was more mixed signals it seems.  Solid beats and/or guides were ignored and fickle investors found ‘ softness’ somewhere within a report and/or during CCalls. (ADTN was up 5% premkt/ ASML).  Earnings luckily started w/ RVBD  pre-announcement, but ADTN/ASML (noted coming into trading day to watch) couldn’t built on the support for the group.  Tech did get some short covering just as in TXN/SOX bump noted gain yesterday), but that was it as the Nasdaq, peak to trough dropped 28 intraday points midday.

Yesterday….“Still ,some pockets of life today  in NVDA/ Networking/optical were not bad today as the well know names like ALU CIEN did alright …”.  Some of the best tech strength was in these names today, (optical/networking) ALU  >8%, CIEN >4% up , FNSR >3%, along with our closely followed Chinese internet linked names,  SINA  SOHU  BIDU again 3-7% up.

■Financials  -  In respect to earnings, same goes with JPM  as with tech reports. It seemed like a solid report for the financials, based on a headline Rev/EPS, but the underlying mortgage repurchase expenses up attracted the negativity and spread to peers.

Europe respects solid earnings

Heading into the trading day, cited strong European earnings from a lux retailer and a semi.  This was followed by broad range of companies today… another lux’ retailer, a beer co, a cosmetics co, a drug co powering European markets by US open.  Hum???...Gains despite an escalating European debt crisis ?    At least someone has the right sense, while here in US investors continue to fickle through reports as seen by GS blowout number. (TAG below :’fickle investors’ for more).   Europe results/reactions have probably signalled a change coming here.

As speculated sooner than later this selling phenomenon will end if solid earnings keep coming in. (outside of banks/brokers as it’s a sector ‘want’ within Financial reports that isn’t showing up and doesn’t relate to other sectors). ..”Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.”

In all, a good sign was the early morning gains that disappeared, reappeared and tracked on even more in the afternoon to close at day highs..  Many of the names noted from Shadowlist yesterday exploded out of the gate and/or had significant follow through days. Even though the RUT underperformed the indices , the Shadowlist components had very good action as seen below.

Shadowlist

■Commodities –  Yesterday’s alert on Ag- equip names had a decent day adding on to yesterday gains, MOS POT~4 NEU LNN   will squeeze nicely if this group action keeps up from it’s basing here.  OSN +20%  today. After getting beat up due to all China fraud/ guilty by association, it reported nicely last week with 20% +guidance numbers.  The PE on this steel name is crazy so keep watch for bottom feeders here possibly.

■Consumers-   LULU   followed through to over $100/4% at the open,  UA  hooked on a for a ride to NCH as well/~4%., RL intraday high.  All these names fall into luxury ‘apparel’ . Burberry earnings today followed LVMH.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Chinese internet names covered here almost daily outperformed again, SINA 12 pts intraday, SOHU, BIDU.  IPGP,  here as well yesterday tacked on 4pts/6% NCH.   As far as ’10 momo’s, there is hesitation on names like FFIV APKT VMW ahead of earnings, even after RVBD upside pre-announcement.  Most of these networking/telecom related names were down ahead of JNPR results tonight.  FNSR  was the outperformer linked name as it trades well recently eyeing gap.  QLIK- nch

Big night ahead for tech results, watch if any disappointment EPS' get bought into or we see a ‘baked in/better than feared scenario for signs of semi’ tsunami ending.  LLTC has a big Japan impact, so will watch how it reacts to what it says about the impact.

*Note : you can click TAGS below on site for '11 notes on stocks/ sectors etc.

Update on Wednesday, April 20, 2011 at 05:03AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

US market finally showing 'respect' for 'solid' earnings.  Note, 1st round is going to be short covering as semi space has been in the woodshed for awhile.  We need to see conviction buying step up afterwards, something we've covered on recent upticks (short coverings) that failed due to sidelined money(conviction).  If market finds it, we will see it in a big day with last weeks SPXhighs falling first. See Friday's update.

Commodities, Autos likely will be secondary in plays for a broad move.

DJIM #17 2011

Kept hearing late in the week,” what a rollercoaster of a week!”.  Well, we’re not sure what all the fuss is about as it’s been straight up ~40 SP handles/ >+3%  since 15 minutes into Mondays’ trading,.. “SPX , approx.~1295 off SP downgrade news likely a buy”.   Must be the dying words of all the naysayer social media guru carcasses seen sprawled out by Friday’s close!.  Of course, majority of the move wouldn’t have happened if it wasn’t for earnings and the reactions changing and coming in ‘solid’ after a disappointing week 1. A big part of trading is preparedness and coming into week we were citing one of the ‘what if’s’  to rally the market laying out the steps ie.....Solid broad Europe earnings, US market sell off reactions would change,etc. to get the rally.  You can’t have the poor reactions we saw early keep coming in, if you have something like 80% of the corporations reporting positively and/or surprising. The averages were unlikely to change as the market went forward, if 16 out of 20 surprise positively, we’ll probably see 80 out of a 100 accomplish this and so on and on it goes.   

Recall,  a big key to keep the upside going and going is for investors to continue and see ‘value’ in stocks as we’ve been saying all month…..”… investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that!”.   Okay, so far so good, but the market did generate some fresh headwinds, eg renewed Sovereign debt tension, even Financial links falling off earnings is a fresh concern along with rails/transports lagging the tape. It’s no surprise most investors were caught snoozing on the rip higher with all the negativity around. 

Now the excuse for many will probably be 'technical’  as we close at a cluster of SPX “R” resistance. It’s an endless circle of pessimism regurgitating through the market the last few years.  It’s always something that supposedly keeps real buying on the sidelines before realization hits and PA (performance anxiety chase) ensues.

Into the trading week, earnings can keep the momentum going, but some caution will be ahead of Bernanke’s ‘big day’, which will likely lead the market to consolidate.  The ‘Super Bowl’ hype over his first post-FOMC press conference will likely turn into a non-event with Will and Kate’s wedding likely offering more exciting.

Shadowlist

Broad range of Shadowlist linked stocks performed relatively well intraday, despite market not passing overnight highs as speculated post-AAPL exuberance in AMC.  Names with >3% gains are tagged on site.