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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London, U.K

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Entries in GRC (3)


DJIM #2, 2007

We'd like to start this weekend's journal with a little background of ourselves and briefly explain what we really do at DJIM.   This might be boring to those who have been with us down this path.  For those that remember us from the old days, we started this relationship from the "Lizard King's Trading Swamp".   Back then, we were posters on that forum and generally have been sharing trading ideas among other traders primarily on small cap winners since those days.    We were then invited to to post for their forum VIP and essentially they wanted us to make their msg forum one of the best.    If any of you have remembered those days, you'd remember that neither RevShark or Lizard ever posted on the shark board as we were doing most of the posting and it sort of became our board.     After a year or so, we got cut by the "gurus" in a unprofessional move without a word.  Simply, cut off overnight before we could migrate others if we had be able to give notice of our leaving.  Smart cookies!   Reason?   Lets just say the msg board picks had way outperformed the Sharkfolio and more often than not, we'd been very critical and vocal about the handling of their strategy/portfolio.   Essentially, we did not fit into their business goal of "making" their site look good. lol.   Unfortunately, we only cared about one thing at the time, and that's to find the best trading opportunity and share them in a small community of traders/investors.    What happens next is that we started another forum.     Some of you probably were introduced to us at that forum but to due to the difference in opinions, mostly stock selections with another a split was only a matter of time.     So, here we are 5 months later with DJIM doing things are way, the way we want to share!.

Before we are writers, moderators of this site and others, we are TRADERS.    We are very passionate about trading and it is what we do for a living.    At this point, we are using this site to try to show the public that it is not a myth to trade successfully in this game.    We don't believe in luck, natural talent, or guru instinct.   What got us to this point is years of hard work and dedication, lots of pain and joy, and definitely lots of losses.    You only learn from your mistakes.  We believe trading mistakes usually come from your emotional flaw and believe us, it does take a long time to overcome.    Right now, what we do is very automatic on whether taking losses or profit.    There's really no shortcut in becoming a good trader and just like any other profession, the more you do(trade) the better you get.    Hopefully by showing you how we trade through our Journal(diary essentially), giving intraday alerts to what might be next....we'd always steer you onto the right track and always get you to look for the right kind of setups and avoid the disastrous mistake we used to make in our early years.    This is not a rocket science if all you care about is making a few profitable trade.   If you want to do this for a living, then you do need years of trading in a consistent manner and eventually have a high enough level of a confidence and say "I'm ready for this!"     Right now, writing this journal is not about making a franchise.   We just want to share our trading experience with others so you don't have to rely on those BS gurus and CNBC gods, talking heads...ever.   Eventually, you'd be confident to play this game on your own. 

Now onto the week in review!   We had a short week and it has definitely not been an "easy" week for the markets.  A bloodbath in the commodities...Oil...Gold.   Even in DJIM stock land,  whipsaw is the word and that's the thing traders hate the most.      Fear not, we think it's normal and given the mute action we've had during the last half of December, it's very realistic to get this kind of (really delayed) volatility early in the new year.     Lets talk about some individual action here...

FFHL,  normally we wouldn't talk about this one today but since it seemed a lot of you are still in this one or are very concerned about the well being of this one, we'll start with this one today.    For us, the easy money has been made, period.    The thing when it comes to a low float play, and when it's not earning related, you really have to understand why it's in play at first place and what kind of traders are playing these kind of stocks.    Again, we never assign any price target, but we rather follow the price action to determine the potential of a move.    Right now, at this point, it does not look attractive to us.    You may think this one has a good bang for the buck kind of potential but the kind of risk it's associated with almost offset any kind of upside potential it offers us at this point.     This is not about milking gains out of a "familiar" play over and over.   It's about going after an easy play, an easy setup with the lowest kind of risk while having highest kind of probability.    You should've made some money in FFHL, and should've locked in most of the profit and you should never listen to those $20-30-40 targets thrown around.   We said if this was a fraction of EFUT, it would be a nice play and it was!    If you haven't made profits in FFHL, then take this one as a lesson and move on.   It happened with EFUT, it will happen here sooner than later as earning season is here. A new play will come with a fever and any of the money still here will leave.   The quicker you move on, the quicker you can be attacking an easier play and a play with better potential.   The more you are hung on FFHL, the most likely you'd be foregoing any and all the other good plays.    Remember this, opportunities don't wait for you, they come and go and it's up to YOU to grab it.    So what's going to happen to FFHL?    Unlike other gurus who claim to know anything and everything, we don't' know and frankly we don't care at this point.   If FFHL goes back to $16 level with some good volume, chances are we'd most likely play it.    If FFHL doesn't, so be it and we are just as happy not looking at it.   Lets just say $14 to 16 doesn't really matter to us, right now.  We're not saying it won't climb back, we just don't care.  This is partially why you will not get 'sell' prices from us.   If we say you should sell here or there and a stock goes up, you will drag us through the mud and blame us for getting you out too early. lol.  It didn't matter we said we were selling a week ago, so there is really not much we can add.    The point here is, you'd never want to think that a certain stock will go to a certain price b/c your mind will always be biased toward that, regardless what's happening with the stock.     We can also tell you one thing, FFHL has been played by day traders, momentum traders and alike and those players have no feeling or love when it comes to it or you!.   It means that there's no institutional support and when they leave, you don't want to be holding the bag.    Maybe one day FFHL comes out with a rosy earning report or a contract announcement.    But right now, it's nothing more than a low float IPO that happens to come from one of the hottest sector.

HMIN, why price entry is not that relevant with this one?   Go back two journals ago and we'd said we'd be buying HMIN aggressively on dips and add lightly on strength.   The only exception to that is that if the whole mkt is going through a pretty severe down tick and the sector FXI is also pulling a similar down move.  We said this one might the best of bunch among the China's going forward and now it's been acting like it.    This one made it to IBD 100 as #6 and we think this is going be a new phase for HMIN.    Will IBD suck the life force out of HMIN?   Maybe eventually down the road, but not before we suck a few more points out of it first.  

GRC, whatever the news(contract announcement) it had a week ago, this one is definitely being played at this moment.   We are putting this one on radar and we took a small position in this one on Friday.   Again, if we take a starter position it does not mean you rush and pick it up like some of you are doing on alerts that are not ready to go or before you do some DD.   Until some come to your senses and stop chasing these we will keep them to the Just kidding!...There's plenty of experienced traders here who don't need to be told not to chase.......Patience...younger trading 'JIMMERS!

Other than these, there's really not much you can talk about when the week ends with a -20 Naz and -83 Dow.    The earning season is coming up soon and we'd be just very patient.   A lot of DJIM closely followed are still in the ' hub' as we said last week. Some attempt to get to highs again but are knocked down by the whipsaw market.   Trade if you must but don't gamble.   Take smaller position and practice.   Gain experience along with it and cope with your emotion.     Take this slower market time to learn more about charting and come up with a selling strategy (we'd definitely touch on it more from now on with fresh plays, momo plays).  Improve your tactics as you go on.    We'd be here every day to give you heads-up on anything that we'd consider as an opportunity.



EPS kick off..

Tomorrow it's kick off time with the first reports coming to the forefront to give this wishy- washy market a direction..maybe!.  We couldn't think of a better time as many of the movers and shakers we've covered over the past few months are still in the 'hub' and waiting for the next flight plan.  Well...this can be quite excruciating waiting for the next move after being accustomed to very nice gains, so the best thing is to get some new fresh plays on the table!.  You just can't wait or expect on the ZOLL's, ATNI's to kick it up with the same feverish tempo we are accustomed to ...the easy money has been made, the easy play we are after at DJIM is over with so many of these names and it is time for the next round.   Tomorrow is the kick off!.   We hope it doesn't include a Romo Cowboy bobble move!.   Is this what all of us have been trying to push back, the inevitable fact that corporate profits will be not be as strong.   Maybe, but we are not going to worry about it as we still expect there to be plenty of nice surprises in small cap land to jump on.   What we are trying to do and will continue (especially in a 'quiet period), as in the first 4 days of trading in '07 is look for potential opportunities to capture a short term move if need be to cure the boring action.  Profits are Profits..pretty or not!    Maybe these 1 or 2 day moves won't get us the DJIM benchmark of finding a 25% move, but we will gladly settle for a 5-10-15% easy play in a day or two.   The same DJIM principles apply, stick a name we throw on watch and see if receives a little love!.   We are not getting into scalping or the very speculative cheap issues, but ones that have tracks of past moves that can be replicated.   We think we know what the fellow trader likes.   An example is BRLC, which we covered a bit in late '06, many of its past moves all stem from what their darling Murray analyst says...He loves to give nice price targets and did it again Friday, the stock always reacts positively and beyond what is normal for such wisdom of increasing a price target.   Understanding the psyche of the trader lets you in the door, if you think with a little street can get in the door first.   Anyways..for those with other gigs, this is our responsibility not yours to find these plays or think like the other players.  The first and probably hardest think to do is find a stock, a stock with some features you know will get a trade.   NWK was one that had what many like.  First, it quietly pre-announced a very good Q revenue based and upped the years growth to 17-20% from 10%.   Well, we know what we would do if this was a EPS report, we'd jump on it if it included a similar EPS growth prospect.   We also know these don't last a day, so we thought a second day follow through might happen and it did very nicely on what looks like a volume high day.   Everybody likes a stock under $10, this was the other factor in thinking this had more space to run.  These stocks are not what we look for in a long term DJIM relationship, it's simply a date and one you got lucky on! 

If that is not your game and it really isn't ours, there are a some recent mentions on the Journal that acted well today with a few making NCH's today to look at again...

GRC, a strong EPS co' talked about last night put in a nice day adding 4.5%.

AMK, 3mln float with nice EPS closed up almost 7% and a NCH.  A perfect example of getting a nice price the last few days if you were following it since our mention.

MTRX got some CNBC spin this morning and seems to have survived the oil massacre in one piece. This was risky getting in at earning with all that was going on, but it stayed in its range since and now just needs a nice close over $17 to maybe continue on. The huge institutional interest in this name make you play on their time.. a little patience is probably needed here.  It would be nice to have something other than ALY, BTJ to kick around.

MFW, we took a position in this holding co' that recently spent some pocket change, 1.7bln for an acquisition and it took off. Incredibly, this looks like it might not be finished as it broke out today to new highs.

A few names to do some DD on for tomorrow..ANGN, a stock we first picked up at $4 reported prelim numbers that look pretty good. OSIR got some FDA news AH and is sitting just off highs, this one can move if this is not priced in.


We better get ready...

Before you know it,  half of the companies out there may have reported their earnings already.  The flow is about to start. Frankly, we feel that this mkt needs to kick a gear higher to really start this earning season.   What we mean is that we want to see more volume and more volatility!    Good earnings get bid up and bad earnings get dumped kind of volatility.    When things are chaotic, there's always opportunity.    We don't want to speculate which sector or individual company is going to shine this quarter, but we have to keep a sharp eye out for outstanding report.    

Today's action from DJIM land is surprisingly quite good given the weakness in technology sector.     Of course, we are only concerned about individual action here and we'll let the talking heads discuss the theoretical side of things.    Most of the DJIM stocks enjoyed some very nice gains and here is a run down..

MFW, financial companies, especially the little ones like this definitely can trade on their own.  Come looking back, an entry point at $28 is not that bad of a deal.    We've been actively trading this one last couple of days .

AMK, as mentioned last night, we thought this had the best early chance this week alon,g with MR.  It didn't disappoint with a nice day.

MR, so it looked like it had a seller or two mid way through the day as it reached highs.  This one had above average volume today and we'd be watching it closely next couple of days to see if it has the juice to take out the old high and start a new leg.

HMIN, it looked like it almost had some steam to break out but only to come back some in the afternoon.    It's having a pretty stubborn consolidation so far.    Again, we are not eager to chase potential breakout but once it gets some push under some heavy volume, we'd chase and alert everyone at the same time.

GLDN, new closing high, there's not much else to be said about this one.   In fact, this is definitely the best Russian stock on our list right now.

CCF, slow down Jose.   To be honest, we actually aren't comfortable for it to trade into the $32s this early.  It was here for all high 27's/low 28's to snap up last trading afternoon.  We definitely want to see some base building here.   Let everyone catch some breath and accumulate some position.

AXR, though we did not actively participate in this most recent run-up, this one should always be on anyone's top trading list and its good readers have not forgotten this $90's DJIM.  Its been up in charts all along, so there's really no excuse to at least have admired this   Honestly, it's not easy to chase a 30 pt move and we just have to take it as is.  If you played some, congrats to you but if not, no big deal as opportunities will come.   It is a little stretched at his point so we aren't looking to do anything here.

Some other stocks on our list that closed well include, GRC OPTM HRT OMRI.    One last note on EDU and future earnings, earning dates are to be played, not to be held through.  We didn't say anything cause there was nothing impressive about the report. Last report which was sensational sold off, so this one is no surprise.  Still, it's pretty good, it''s just the market doesn't care.  CHDX, this one was in play a month or two ago and today it broke out apparently on good volume.   Keep an eye on this one for potential follow through or not, it's not the most consistent day to day performer.  Another is a big DJIM flyer from last quarter, CETV which put in a NCH today on a gap. Not sure what the beef is here today! . Good stocks just grind it out over time and before you know it...boom...a NCH