..hangin' tough

The “Bull” stomped it’s toe early morning to 9ema on the SPX and immediately was helped by dip buyers to get back on it’s course!. The markets resiliency day after day is simply impressive and why shouldn’t it be?.. Just look at today…a strengthening economy as more good Eco data came in, v..good micro # continued, an unwavering Bernanke, a less hawkish Trichet, a surprising consumer who shopped rain or sleet or snow(retail #’s), what more can you ask for?. Okay, just one thing and that is a ‘surprising upbeat NFP# and the market we’ll find itself at pre Lehman Aug ’08 highs.  It will be interesting to see what the market does at this symbolic, if not ironic juncture!

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   As discussed , if earnings from “cloud/data..”improve following FFIV’s disappointment, the groups share prices will improve as last Q. FFIV’s past 2-3 days are all you need to see.
• Commodities –  cyclone wavered and commods were hit early, only to make an impressive comeback!. Would not be surprised to see follow through from names like CLF, X (steel linked)
• Consumer – Was today a turning point? If so, we can look at LULU FOSL TIF RL names to trade soon.
• Q4 earnings update –  OPLK, OPNT put in 3-4% days after consolidating post-EPS. AMC, JDSU  put in one of best big beats this season.

..same

Another day, another leech on the back of the Bear!.  If only the trading Bear would do as their namesake and hibernate for the winter to save it’s hide!.   Unfortunately, the Bull is only given incremental up days, one after another as the lack of short exposure doesn’t allow for many ‘big’ up days.  As seen recently (Egypt situation)any short willing to press positions quickly covers at first sign of another failed attempt at downside.   Today, 2 hawkish Fed speaks/ China hike didn’t dampen accumulation of shares in the broad market.  Even though these are not catalysts to us,  it used to be that the market in recent years would gyrate on any small bit of negativity. This just shows the maturity of the market as it’s on one track mind to global economic strength.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/winners of ‘10 –   The risk in CSCO’s outlook exists following last Q and is keeping the movers at bay.  The only fuel for the Bears this week is the underperformance (2^nd day)of SOX to the tape, but this might be only a condition of some profit taking from the best group so far in ’11.  Air out of the NVDA’s semi types is a good thing.  On the hand, we are seeing  rotation as pointed out in the last few Journals to the consumer sec since late last week and financials as of Monday, which the Bulls can offset with.  As far as the fiber optical plays,  consolidation is continuing after big up day on Friday and so watch for another entry soon if this has any legs as a trade in ‘11
• Commodities –  Under hike cloud today.
• Financials – day 2 of being one of the market leaders.  As per Shadowlist ,we concentrate of GS/JPM and/ or RKH (ETF) for Regionals to trade.  But, honestly with earnings plays this Q and retailers this week the plate is pretty full to get overly involved in a trade here.
• Consumer –  Our retailers/ goods are still moving inline with the tape.  Since pre-Friday trade listed DJIM’s are up 6-9% eg.  LULU  $73 to 80;s, FOSL  73’s to 78’s, RL  108-115’s, PVH  59’s to 63. 
• Q4 earnings update -  this is just a good safe stock that has constantly come across, but because it’s a crawler and unknown it has never been added to trading list.  Until now,  AZPN  is a nice safe stock at 1.3b cap in the software space following a good report.

..problem child....

The Shadowlist and it’s components pretty well show the footprints of the market today and what to watch for Thursday.  Market has traded pretty good on bad news, it will interesting to see how it reacts intraday to it’s problem child' CSCO.    A shallow dip to Monday’s SPX open gap (if hit) would be expectation for dip buying.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   we’ve been cautious on all the ‘clouds-virts-data centers’  heading into CSCO’s and names like AKAM, EQIX for basically the same group of stocks.  AMC, CSCO, ..” The risk in CSCO’s outlook exists..”.    It seems many have forgotten this by it’s run into earnings and are now paying the price as guidance is 'weak'.   No matter if CSCO is a company specific issue or not again,  AKAM  is not doing any favours for all their peers.   Noted the ‘crumbs’ this week for the Bears relating to SOX (now 3 days down), well, now it’s a nugget for them possibly.  (Some bounce in opticals)
• Commodities –  “Under hike cloud today”..yesterday… Today, the cloud burst as this materials/commods (particularly coals, steels) were the biggest drag on the market ($CRX).
• Financials – streak halted at 2 days for now.  Okay, that makes 3 essential leadership groups off Shadowlist showing weakness.  Pretty obvious the market can’t have this continue tomorrow/short term.
• Consumer –  it’s been a good pocket to be in as it’s the only pocket of strength today again, led by a big earnings day reaction from RL, >10% intraday.  AMC , WFMI  is a good feel earnings story for sub groups.

DJIM #7 2011, Shadowlist update

The trading backdrop remains as we left it last week, except the markets will have a host of eco’ data to deal with this week, focus on ‘inflation’.  The week culminated in a big finish Friday with the ‘Opticals' stealing the show (JDSU, NPTN >12% , FN up ~8%),  a trade we were in front of all week in the Journals along with the ‘Retailers’, 8-12% on the week,(LULU, FOSL, RL).

An updated Shadowlist (below, visit site) is the only place we’ll need to look for the next ‘pocket(s)’ to trade away.  We’ve added many new plays (mostly earnings 10-15) to this year’s first list via mentions on Journal/Alert-comments since Jan 1, while removing winners from '10 eg. MOTR, ROVI in order to narrow the Composite to about 60 stocks to monitor the breath/rotation and individual stock picking. 

DJIM #11 2011

Due to the earthquake Friday, the markets were secondary and if not irrelevant.  As witnessed all weekend the implications and fallout will remain an unknown.  We started early last week talking of the volatility back in the market and it picked up steam in one of the worst days in the markets in months and lead to our early premise in late February of this playing out like out like November instead of another quick snapback… February 24th”..supports  fell quite easily and brings up the possibility of 50MA as buyers are in ‘No Rush’ as titled yesterday.  This dip is looking more like the November one to 50ma eventually instead of the January one.  Short term- Saudi Arabia is the wildcard noisemaker here, if this turmoil doesn't spread there, SPX 1295-1300 cluster of support may hold.”.   Unforunately, the market got a few unexpected wildcards (optical earnings induced slide, china import/export, US trade #’s & Earthquake to lessen the positive developments out of Saudi Arabia (non-event) by Friday.).  Heading into the week a ‘bleak mood’ will likely persist, but the market did defend the SPX 1294 level discussed and the sideways trade may continue if it continues to hold.

Shadowlist

• Commodities-   The fallout from earthquake to start was the ‘rebuilding ’ trade in steel  related names.  Another will likely be solar  due to the nuke issue at hand. (Barron's was positive on our 2 names TSL,FSLR  based on valuation). As far as China trade #’s, it is likely an aberration due to seasonal factors as January was extremely strong and February very weak.  A very possible wash in the end, but market is not drawing this conclusion yet and will likely wait till March’s # come out.
• Consumer-  Retailers in list acted okay and are near highs late last week, RL, FOSL(IBD50 addition) TBL etc.  SODA continues to trade well.
• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   some better signs last few days as high growth names bounce ie. NFLX, FFIV.
• Financials-  early in the week talk of rotation into financials was discounted here (needed more than BAC meeting) and this proved right as once again they faltered.

leaders 'lead'

One again anything that can be construed as negative tilted news was brushed aside by US markets (globally it wasn’t).  We’ve discussed this since the middle of last week as market turns a blind eye, now it’s continuing the trend at window dress up time and ahead of earnings season.  This is same factor at work as when alerted at SPX1250 and said to watch for negative ‘nuke’ news not get sold off any longer, which would be a positive going forward.  Every bit of negative newsflow is seemingly ignored now as investors tolerance has been built up with Macro global issues.  It's perplexing to many.  It could continue until Friday as investors/traders await all the data/QE2 for that day.

The morning ramp can be attributed in part to nobody finding a catalyst overnight (see yesterday's closing note) to close market below the pivotal SPX 1314.  There was no positive catalyst out there this morning.   It was a matter of Performance Anxiety (PA) setting in as managers went after growth/ momentum names.  Remember, these names didn’t participate in the first leg off 1250SPX and really haven’t played a big part of the ‘missing link’ tech (mostly SOX) rush that ensued afterwards.   Momo-linked stocks like FFIV APKT AMZN SOHU and many more simply caught a bid.  As 2pm approached many probably thought the market may repeat Monday’ s late selling due to no positive newsflow, but ‘leaders’ were at work this time with PA being enough of a catalyst and so chance of sticking the SPX gains was a high possibility unlike Monday.  Technically, it was important to get back over SPX 1314 quickly and the icing is a close of 1319, which could be enough for more points as noted in weekend Journal.

Shadowlist

A stack of DJIM names +>3pts as growth/leaders lead the way today.

• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-    SOHU +7, PCLN +7, AMZN +5, FFIV +4, (NCH's- SFLY  OTEX)  APKT +3pts  broke trendline.  SOHU, unleashed a huge move, saw no news, only idea of why is…China Unicom's results point to a strong mobile internet ramp in 2011, as BIDU SINA  act well too.
• Commodities – WLT +4pts, MCP +4, CRR nch,
• Consumer-  noted Retail was fine yesterday despite leisure selling,  LULU nch , RL, UA all +3-4pts off recent DJIM PVH +5pt on earnings.

DJIM #14 2011

As cited Friday post Global PMI/ US NFP#, the market should have been relieved as numbers came out better than feared.  March PMI’s withstood the shock of all macro global issues and NFP# came in solid, but not a big beat to make the latest hawkish case stand up. (*see below for more on PMI's).  The Bears still had a few shots to disturb the day, but US ISM came in line and most importantly, Fed Dudley curbed a week’s worth of ‘hawkish’ (tightening) exuberance by keeping to the ‘big 3 ‘ doves mandate. (Bernanke Monday night speak to follow).   

DJIM expectation was..” All in, the market big $ longs and markets shorts are on hold. The data may do nothing to change.”.   Basically, the market sighed a relief and it moved past “R” from data, but the big $$  is still not convinced to chase this 6.5 % rally off SPX 1250 and closed back below “R” top/ SPX 1335.   Market wannabe participants, (this includes big money longs and shorts) who look at the market rally in disbelief will be left with little to go on this upcoming week prior to earnings season.  Why?.  Simply, we are into a very quiet US economic/ earnings calendar week as SPX nears it's highs for the year.   It looks like the market might experience 'technical difficulties’, as in a market driven by technical analysis as the SPX nears ‘ double top’ ..Bear lingo.(* R2K/DJIA are above it.)  That’s all great chatter and makes use for all the crayon chart drawings you see in the social media stock world, but once the day is done, shorts/Bears are unlikely to do much (conviction) before earnings get into gear and risk more upside from the market.   It won’t be a surprise to see pre-announcements this week, we’ve seen quite a few already.  It will be interesting to see market’s follow through reaction as they hit (how much already baked in?). 

In all, we could be stuck as both sides have little conviction, likely all newsflow will come from outside US markets (ECB upcoming hike, China possible hike).

*While PMI’s held up for March, it’s very possible that immediate impact is not yet showing and April reading's will deteriorate.  It’s a few weeks away, but if a sizable correction is to occur, it will begin prior to the releases later in the month of April.   Earnings will need to offset possible Macro (Japan,Oil) drags ahead for investors to find value in stocks.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   If you think window dressing front running doesn’t exist,  just look at a 5 day FFIV chart.  Isn’t it sweet when a house downgrades (FFIV) immediately after a 8-10pts ramp higher into Q end.  This goes back to what we were saying about possible jumping on these missing link laggards into Q end.

Just 24 hrs after a bottom seemed to be formed in the opticals, a mid cap (EXFO earnings) destroys all linked names like JDSU, FNSR.  It’s quiet silly/ridiculuos and shows why it’s a momo’ trade this year as 50mln to 500mln market caps are bringing havoc on 2-4 bln market caps.  This action wouldn’t happen in many other sectors in the marketplace and will eventually be in play again as network builds are not going away in US and China.

As as broad tech, the SOX ‘dislike’ underperformance noted here mid week extends, month end couldn’t do much for a bid into the consumer end tech hardware/semi linked plays.  This is where most pre- announcements will likely occur.

As far as Shadowlist components, Wednesday included a few select winners on site. A few continued to be stong to close off the week.  NPTN  surged to a peak of ~20% next day, TDSC, added 13%, MSTR,  tacked on 3% to 8-10% Wednesday's gains.  WTW,  another 6%/ 5pts. 

■Commodities –  One sector that did have follow through on Friday as per note to watch was the Ferts/Ag’/,equp./chem.  As the coal trade here likely cools off shortly, we’d look for the ferts/ag’s/chem to trade post USDA numbers boosting corn prices. (Thurs.) 

■Consumer-  the retail sec is not getting much market attention, but DJIM earnings related retail/ lux plays continue to make new highs during a big week/month.  SODA,+6%nch FOSL, TBL, WFMI, UA surged Friday.  RL next for highs?. See table on site attached.  Also, casino (WYNN LVS )  on watch again since last week had nice day as March Macau numbers were excellent, the comps were very hard to beat, but they did so in record fashion.

Ahead of the open (15-12)

Heading into the trading following a ‘big’ market up Summit day, cited underneath Eurozone mess, the market was paying no attention to the unfavorable guidance coming out from ‘tech’ specifically, which relates to markets complacency towards the ‘real’ economy effect from Europe(growth). The profit warning list from this weekend has been topped up generously this week.

A few days of slow selling has turned into a market rout overall with the underlying tape seeing a liquidation crush in commodities, tech indicies filling November gaps and high beta-momo’ performing much worse than the closely followed major indicies (DJIA, SPX). 

Today’s down tape confirmed all warnings noted a couple of days ago…a break of 20ma (DJIM benchmark), a ‘death cross 20/50ma with the loudest market noise being the plunge in the Euro/ Gold markets last few days, which was foreshadowed by Monday’s note on Euro and Gold selling off simultaneously.  The selling in commodities (copper,crude) is simply growth concerns finally showing up. The selling in Gold, silver is realization no global QE is at hand. This is not the type of selling we are accustomed to.  It’s not from pure Eurozone fear/panic with large one day drops spaced out (sov’bond yields ok, ECB measure from Thurs a help as noted), but instead a sell off that is grinding away (intraday as well) at every risk class, a small piece at a time. Now, we’re even seeing our long time, growth high end retailers, which have preserved all year taking it on the chin in the last few trading days.(TIF, VFC, PVH,RL,LULU, UA), indicating growth prospects are in question and spreading. Seemingly, this is the perfect group to go short as it’s one the last shoes to drop, if the real economy is in deep trouble.

The downward pressure on EURO continuing (likely), makes the idea of an equity rally remote into year end

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Morning Update:

Global PMI’s better than feared. After yesterday’s haywire action in EURO, commods’, the PMI’s may settle the unwind trade down a bit (as in hours, not days). Waiting on S&P and what it does to France’s rating (2 notch cut would be worst outcome), others might be bought by market.