DJIM #7 2011, Shadowlist update

The trading backdrop remains as we left it last week, except the markets will have a host of eco’ data to deal with this week, focus on ‘inflation’.  The week culminated in a big finish Friday with the ‘Opticals' stealing the show (JDSU, NPTN >12% , FN up ~8%),  a trade we were in front of all week in the Journals along with the ‘Retailers’, 8-12% on the week,(LULU, FOSL, RL).

An updated Shadowlist (below, visit site) is the only place we’ll need to look for the next ‘pocket(s)’ to trade away.  We’ve added many new plays (mostly earnings 10-15) to this year’s first list via mentions on Journal/Alert-comments since Jan 1, while removing winners from '10 eg. MOTR, ROVI in order to narrow the Composite to about 60 stocks to monitor the breath/rotation and individual stock picking. 

Cluster held..

Following 3 premature and/or botched bounces this week, the market finally found the ingredients to make a bounce last.   Why?.  Firstly, no sideline money coming back (‘No Rush’), secondly no shorts in the market to create a short covering rally of substance for those 3 earlier attempts!.   The combustion needed simply was not there, folks. Let’s get to this afternoon,  it wasn’t crudes fall as reported to ignite the move as it was falling all day off overnight $104’s and the market had done nothing except sell off more.   It was smacking 1295 SPX more than anything that set this move off. (see yesterday’s cluster note).  Afterwards > 2pm, crude fell more and that’s what got some more conviction buying / covering going.   Look at the Shadowlist (site attached) snapshot taken around 1:30 just before the market fell hard to 1295.  What do you see?... No selling in individual stocks on the Shadowlist and thus a ES sell trade.  This was not a list indicative of a market falling through Dow 12000/SPX 1300.  As the market dropped to SPX1295, our stocks didn’t budge in a seemingly panicky moment at major support.  Selling had clearly stalled this morning off Saudi Arabia sentiment of this contagion not spreading.

Looking ahead, the market broad following this afternoon is an 'Oily hostage' to the price of crude as it will dictate the broad market/SPX moves.  Likely finish the week below 20MA, so hardly out of the woods, but indvidual stocks/ sectors should have better sentiment/oppy's to trade after this weeks woodshed moments.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ’10-   yesterday..”Hope is PCLN  EPS reaction AMC generates some buy interest on this pullback”. Clearly, this helped abate the selling and generated a bid in ’10 winners names like FFIV APKT RVBD, all >4-6% and ‘11’s  standouts like JNPR.
• Q4 earnings update – Another positive for market was the ‘v.good EPS reactions’ continuing as we had 3 DJIM stcoks report well, GTLS +>13%,  PCLN >6% , SXCI  $44 to 49’s , >6%,  all excel and produce nice runs in a selling market.  This again proves the premise of trading EPS reports this season and ignoring the broader market.

below: Intraday Shadowlist components

DJIM #10 2011

The market got it’s "probable good NFP#", but it couldn’t put ”aside everything (crude>100, Libya, Saudi Arabia etc.)” for another day and sold off across the board.   Despite what was a >20pts SPX /100+ DJIA intraday loss, the important takeaway is it was an ETF trade  all day, including the bounce into the close.  See Shadowlist below.  There was no real selling of individual stocks and if there is no escalation this weekend abroad, the market should recover some and continue to trade sideways.  Heading into the week...sticking to 3 groups discussed last week, Opticals/networking, coals, semi’s off upgrade.

Europe respects solid earnings

Heading into the trading day, cited strong European earnings from a lux retailer and a semi.  This was followed by broad range of companies today… another lux’ retailer, a beer co, a cosmetics co, a drug co powering European markets by US open.  Hum???...Gains despite an escalating European debt crisis ?    At least someone has the right sense, while here in US investors continue to fickle through reports as seen by GS blowout number. (TAG below :’fickle investors’ for more).   Europe results/reactions have probably signalled a change coming here.

As speculated sooner than later this selling phenomenon will end if solid earnings keep coming in. (outside of banks/brokers as it’s a sector ‘want’ within Financial reports that isn’t showing up and doesn’t relate to other sectors). ..”Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.”

In all, a good sign was the early morning gains that disappeared, reappeared and tracked on even more in the afternoon to close at day highs..  Many of the names noted from Shadowlist yesterday exploded out of the gate and/or had significant follow through days. Even though the RUT underperformed the indices , the Shadowlist components had very good action as seen below.

Shadowlist

■Commodities –  Yesterday’s alert on Ag- equip names had a decent day adding on to yesterday gains, MOS POT~4 NEU LNN   will squeeze nicely if this group action keeps up from it’s basing here.  OSN +20%  today. After getting beat up due to all China fraud/ guilty by association, it reported nicely last week with 20% +guidance numbers.  The PE on this steel name is crazy so keep watch for bottom feeders here possibly.

■Consumers-   LULU   followed through to over $100/4% at the open,  UA  hooked on a for a ride to NCH as well/~4%., RL intraday high.  All these names fall into luxury ‘apparel’ . Burberry earnings today followed LVMH.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Chinese internet names covered here almost daily outperformed again, SINA 12 pts intraday, SOHU, BIDU.  IPGP,  here as well yesterday tacked on 4pts/6% NCH.   As far as ’10 momo’s, there is hesitation on names like FFIV APKT VMW ahead of earnings, even after RVBD upside pre-announcement.  Most of these networking/telecom related names were down ahead of JNPR results tonight.  FNSR  was the outperformer linked name as it trades well recently eyeing gap.  QLIK- nch

Big night ahead for tech results, watch if any disappointment EPS' get bought into or we see a ‘baked in/better than feared scenario for signs of semi’ tsunami ending.  LLTC has a big Japan impact, so will watch how it reacts to what it says about the impact.

*Note : you can click TAGS below on site for '11 notes on stocks/ sectors etc.

Update on Wednesday, April 20, 2011 at 05:03AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

US market finally showing 'respect' for 'solid' earnings.  Note, 1st round is going to be short covering as semi space has been in the woodshed for awhile.  We need to see conviction buying step up afterwards, something we've covered on recent upticks (short coverings) that failed due to sidelined money(conviction).  If market finds it, we will see it in a big day with last weeks SPXhighs falling first. See Friday's update.

Commodities, Autos likely will be secondary in plays for a broad move.

Not everything a drift...

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Late weekend newsflow out of China,’China to switch some FX into precious metals and energy’, had the PM bugs touting the end of USD.   An hour into the open, the herd jumping on this wire fell off as the trade backfired in most hard commodities with USD, even treasuries lifting.   A symptom of Europe closed for business equals an illiquid FX market, add the fact commodity linked stocks were off very little signalled the markets are really waiting for Bernanke on Wednesday (the decision will hit at 12:30pm/Bernanke hosts a press conf. at 2:15pm). That was the first hour and nothing changed by close, including shares not changing hands.

Consolidation was what we were looking for heading into the mid-week and this was just some of it playing out today with no hard eco’data and earnings taking a backseat to Bernanke.  Tuesday will likely be more of the same.

In all, trading days like this you don’t need to peruse the market drift for stocks to trade.  A glimpse onto the Shadowlist  early reveals enough action to possibly trade just off earnings related information.

ALB , initiated last week off earnings popped ~5pts/7%,  SOHU  had good earnings +8pts, SODA  a price target increase  to $50 /+8%, TZOO +7% on momo from earnings and price target increases. 

EPS reports in the next 24hrs off our list include,  APKT,CMI, ININ, UA, KEYN,ILMN

Update on Tuesday, April 26, 2011 at 01:29PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Messy tape: Looks like the bunch of industrial/material EPS beats/guide ups got some PA going into month end, unfortuantely at the expense of momo's/growth stocks who were used to take profits off on the pop. 

Probably best to look at those hit most %/or pts off ist, (ININ, UA silly off reports), China's, TZOO,PCLN

..may they all be like CRR, FTNT,SFLY,N!

A day of digestion as the market rests on support provided by a ‘positive’ earnings season and a FED that gives and gives.  Most of the incremental gains for the market today are due to managers going after the lagging groups  as is always the case.  Thus, leading sectors in the market today are the Black Sheep groups, while the Nasdaq lags.   This also relates to a note a few days ago…”.bring inflows from the sidelines due to technical (indicies potential breakout)..” . Combined, it is all ‘PA’, performance anxiety into month end.  If the breakout the other day isn’t enough, today the TRANS were making fresh highs, which garners support from the Dow Theory cult. 

Another quiet day tomorrow likely, next week as discussed we will find how long the market can rest on it’s laurels. (earnings / FED).  There is no sign of shorts in the market and it’s hard for the market to go much higher without them being around to get squeezed.  The market would need a lot of money to come in the market to offset their absence.  Maybe, eco data will wake them up next week and/or wake up complacent longs.  Recall, what we said about April PMI's (tagged) showing what March PMI's didn't ( post Japan/Crude price escalation). 

Considering, DJIM has always been an earnings/small cap orientated place,  we still have something to look for as R2K earnings take over from the mega caps.  If today is any indication from Shadowlist (tagged to locate) earning linked plays, we’ll have something to look forward to and initiate new stocks. CRR, initiated last Q at $110, hit $169 today, SFLY, also last Q addition at $40 to $67 today and FTNT  from August at $18 to $48.  All were  >15% pops today off another round of excellent earnings. Makes you wish you were just a buy and hold investor....

Update on Friday, April 29, 2011 at 02:36PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Nice earnings from small caps, QLIK  play here and others like ACOM (now at of hand), ARBA , but one we played as an IPO in software Netsuite is best, N, headline is nothing # special, but inside is great 'billings growth') and definitely an add to Shadowlist.