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Entries in QLIK (5)

Tuesday
Jan042011

Back door

A nice way to kick off ’11, but still something to be wary of as the 1st trading day in 09/’10 produced even better results.  Still, despite the >6% rally of December the market hadn’t seen a >1% day since the first days of that month.  As pointed out last week, all the ‘illiquid’ action was irrelevant in respect to inability to cross SPX 1260 “R” and not seeing conviction off eco data to help for that to occur. Today, 1260 was crossed easily as the market rode to 1276 highs until volumes fell off later in the day.

  • Catalysts- as noted last week watch for a China PMI, if lower M/M it may wake up the market on ‘coolin’ factors. Importantly, inflation sub group of number fell 7 pts.  Also, Euro/US ISM came in strong signalling a synchronized global acceleration.  The ‘back door’ flow helped as well with most global markets closed.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/ winners of ‘10 – woke up,  led by an article saying FFIV >3%  RVBD >7% APKT >9% were M&A targets spread to traders chasing other higher beta names for first time in a month.
  • Commodities-   Although Ag’s links lost steam after 3 days late in the day, the analysts are raising estimates/tgts on names as we had been looking for.  AGU  on Friday, today MOS (reports Tues.).  Coals , WLT, CLF >4% outperforming on Australian floods.  Steels  should also benefit from floods.  Precious metals, copper rolled over in PM. The ‘rare’ metals stepped up again as Dahlman Rose following in their own footsteps with another outrageous target of >80 on MCP >15%(did this with AUMN late last year, a gold stock we had up). AVL up >20%, REE >6%.   Looking further into OSN, it’s actually a nice growth stock with a ‘Rare’ connection, but notably a ‘steel’ stock that has to do with every China infrastructure aspect from highways to railways etc.  It’s also cheap and a fresh IPO importantly.  Still, it has issues as little China co’ are being exposed to fraud noise since December.  Everything else like CHGS CDII is definitely considered ‘junkyard dogs’ stuff here. 
  • NCH's- GTLS, JOYG, VMW, ROVI, HOLI, QLIK, ARB ARUN are just more Shadows putting in new highs intraday.
  • Financials- continuing December streak into earnings,  GS  breaking out
  • Consumer- Casino  sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN  finally got over 105.

Don’t pay much attention / trading decisions based on Global markets, thus the ES to start the day as most markets will be playing ‘catch –up’.  SPX 1280 as next ‘R”

Thursday
Feb032011

...EPS EPS

While the ES/SPY traders are mired in a tight ‘digestion’ range today, it is the strategy of focus on earnings linked stocks that provided most of the excitement.  Although some may see it as “R” at 1307’ish at work, it is also natural for the market to go through a digestion process after a big spike ahead of some potential catalysts ECB-Trichet, Bernanke , NFP #.   All in, it’s a wishy washy diagnosis for the broad market.  Tonight, judging by ES, market is turning a blind eye to Egypt and region, which could turn costly if too complacent.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   last section update, APKT  was noted as one to watch off earnings and today it seemed to be the play of the day, but it wasn’t the only one as it took fellow DJIM’ BSFT  for a similar ride up to >20%.  Just like last Q post EQIX meltdown, earnings are once again stabilizing the sector along with M&A activity (TMRK and NAVI).  SMid caps are definitely having the best earnings reactions in the marketplace, even though the RUT is not making new highs.  QLIK , if you follow a narrow band of stocks per Shadowlist, you get a feel of a stocks habits.  In this case if volume comes, it’s usually signals a move pretty soon and that’s why it was alerted to watch.
  • Commodities – All DJIM stock links to Ag/Coal/ steel are simply on cyclone watch worries.  CLF coming to new highs.
  • Q4 earnings update –  AMC, SFLY  OTEX  strong reports.
Wednesday
Feb162011

Bar high into eco'data..

Eco’ Data expectations were not met today, but they are a little to the moon right now on the heels of weeks of better than expected numbers.   In all, just a blip of a day and nothing more (hardly a broader change until (if) ~1312 busts.  FOMC minutes ahead tomorrow.   Again, ‘inflation’ clues will be the thing market will watch in minutes as it relates to raising interest in the future.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ’10-   A couple of downgrades (JDSU) took down some other Optical names in sympathy. We already talked about a ‘breather’ here yesterday.  A visit to 9ema for re-entry is something to keep in mind for some names ahead. Still, JNPR, FN  trade well.  Software, QLIK  noted earlier this month, continues its turn today.  AMC- tech earnings/pre-announcements should negate weakness in SOX today.
  • Commodities –  Slippage in Ferts (-4-7% one losses in POT,CF,LNN MOS) is welcomed off falling grain prices/foreign co’EPS #’s.   Some respite will provide a quick trade very soon.  Our steel-iron ore names hang in.
  • Financials – Euro fin earnings are keeping the U.S linked stocks in the game.
  • Consumer –  AMC-M&A (FDO) activity a boost to market morale and many sympathy trades should emerge. considering $$ stores aren't our trading cup of tea, a lateral trade may even be WFMI after some post EPS consolidation
Tuesday
Apr192011

Europe respects solid earnings

Heading into the trading day, cited strong European earnings from a lux retailer and a semi.  This was followed by broad range of companies today… another lux’ retailer, a beer co, a cosmetics co, a drug co powering European markets by US open.  Hum???...Gains despite an escalating European debt crisis ?    At least someone has the right sense, while here in US investors continue to fickle through reports as seen by GS blowout number. (TAG below :’fickle investors’ for more).   Europe results/reactions have probably signalled a change coming here.

As speculated sooner than later this selling phenomenon will end if solid earnings keep coming in. (outside of banks/brokers as it’s a sector ‘want’ within Financial reports that isn’t showing up and doesn’t relate to other sectors). ..”Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.”

In all, a good sign was the early morning gains that disappeared, reappeared and tracked on even more in the afternoon to close at day highs..  Many of the names noted from Shadowlist yesterday exploded out of the gate and/or had significant follow through days. Even though the RUT underperformed the indices , the Shadowlist components had very good action as seen below.

 

Shadowlist

Commodities –  Yesterday’s alert on Ag- equip names had a decent day adding on to yesterday gains, MOS POT~4 NEU LNN   will squeeze nicely if this group action keeps up from it’s basing here.  OSN +20%  today. After getting beat up due to all China fraud/ guilty by association, it reported nicely last week with 20% +guidance numbersThe PE on this steel name is crazy so keep watch for bottom feeders here possibly.

Consumers-   LULU   followed through to over $100/4% at the open,  UA  hooked on a for a ride to NCH as well/~4%., RL intraday high.  All these names fall into luxury ‘apparel’ . Burberry earnings today followed LVMH.

Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Chinese internet names covered here almost daily outperformed again, SINA 12 pts intraday, SOHU, BIDU.  IPGP,  here as well yesterday tacked on 4pts/6% NCH.   As far as ’10 momo’s, there is hesitation on names like FFIV APKT VMW ahead of earnings, even after RVBD upside pre-announcement.  Most of these networking/telecom related names were down ahead of JNPR results tonight.  FNSR  was the outperformer linked name as it trades well recently eyeing gap.  QLIK- nch

Big night ahead for tech results, watch if any disappointment EPS' get bought into or we see a ‘baked in/better than feared scenario for signs of semi’ tsunami ending.  LLTC has a big Japan impact, so will watch how it reacts to what it says about the impact.

*Note : you can click TAGS below on site for '11 notes on stocks/ sectors etc.

Monday
Jun272011

DJIM #26  2011

It’s a pretty sad market state when the Q-end/month end/into a holiday weekend factor is about all ‘longs only’ have going for themselves heading into the week of June 27th.  On Friday, once again the market came up against, “Now the Hard part” premised during the week of not being able to hold gains as “austerity’ news’ was shrugged off as should have been done the previous day.  Any rally is a sell into strength and dip buying is elusive with only 200ma bringing out a few souls nibbling.

Now with a close below 1280 the Bulls have lost the agenda once more with an inevitable short term visit of Fukishma lows and likely new lows in the cards.  It may not happen this Q end week( if Greece does not provide any more shocks), but eventually it’s a summer necessity as lower prices may only change the dynamics of the present underlying market where buyers are non-existent.  

All in, a few positives from last week.  May Q end earnings had been quite robust early in the week (FDX,BBBY), but a few blow ups from US tech Thursday night and some European blow ups have turned the tide some making for a murky picture ahead.  This is not giving any clarity overall into what we’ll see from June end earnings which only start mid–July.   PMI flash numbers from China and Europe point to weak numbers for Global July 1 official announcements, but markets held up showing market expectations are likely baked in and it’s looking forward to the July numbers in August already.  The performance of Asian markets was the biggest positive, notably China as a soft landing was likely orchestrated.  Crude capping intervention was something we alluded to in DJIM#24 as a positive if it came and still see it that way now that it’s here for the markets as it will give some relief to the consumer. Just call it another stimulus. Now give us a tax repatriation holiday for some real ‘stocks’ stimulus!.  Another positive was R2K outperformance and this shows up in a few DJIM’s flirting with fresh highs, FTNT  QLIK  MSTR , including some of our consumer linked names noted last week.  Unfortunately, all of this is in the backseat, if not the trunk, as long as Greece (2 votes this week) and potential fallout is in the mix.