..planting a seed

..maybe this is what this low volume day after day has been all about recently....planting a seed....Consolidation. 

Okay...lets continue with the disconnect discussed heading into the week between our primary list of stocks and the market indices, except this time lets turn over the table!.    Why?.  Simply..Monday was one strange looking day in our eyes as the market contained gains most of the day while our commodity rich list lagged until about 2:00-2:30 pm.   After the slop trading we saw most of the day, our stocks improved late while the indices started to suffer some and finished only mildly higher.    All morning, we were hearing and really not seeing the strength in the financials that was pulling up the indices.  The prices in the the GS's of the world were only slightly higher early and with the drug problems on the street led by MRK, we were not in one of our lets get a rally going off the financials back this day.    It wasn't going to happen as the day brought no headlines from the bunch as well.    Maybe Tuesday the financials can turn this into something more and we can say those April "FOOLS"  rallied the market.     The problem or best described as an opportunity possibly was the action in the commodities, specifically the Chem-Ag's that slid off the "planting seed' report.  We've talked for days straight about looking for an opp to buy on weakness and yesterday we got that in many a name in these commod' sectors.    Basically, the Ag's sold off on news, maybe even a slight EPS miss you may call it as the USDA released the planting intentions of farmers.

The USDA reported farmers planting intentions in corn of 86.014 mln acres vs the USDA's prior estimates of 90 mln, the American Farm Bureau's estimates of 88 mln and the Dow Jones Newswires survey of 22 analysts estimate of 85.7-89.8 mln (creating an avg estimate of 87.387 mln); wheat planting intentions of 63.803 mln vs USDA's prior estimates of 64 mln; soybeans planting intentions of 74.793 mln ....... 

• BLAH, BLAH thats our view!.  You can't control the weather and these numbers can be turned around in a few days because of it. Our only concern is the hedgies and as long as they are around that will be the greater factor in determining this sec's fate.  Late in the day these improved and should send a positive signal out there.

So, if picking up 'cheap' shares on a boring green day is some kind pre- April Fools joke, we all may be in trouble!.  We don't think so. This wasn't a running of commodities out the door like recently seen,  it was orderly but was widespread.   We'd look for a play or two that didn't rebound as much, eg a CMP over a MON. 

MELI,  we took it out of the closet and bought into the news of them withdrawing their offering.   This offering has been a drag on the stock since January and should give it some reason to move now.  The other reason to consider this big past winner here at DJIM is if you ask the question of why they did it.    This stock loves rumors and this may give it more in the way of interested parties in MELI.  Is there something on the table for MELI for real now?

On to Q2,  it can't get worse than Q1 on the indices!

Primary Watchlist

Snapshot of platforms primary trade list at close Friday.

AAPL          153.29      +1.68             +1.11              30,527,900  
AEM           70.44       +2.42             +3.56              2,151,700   
AKS           61.11       +0.91             +1.51              2,762,400   
BIDU          293.60      +6.96             +2.43              7,999,900   
BZP           19.02       -1.46             -7.13              1,626,600   
CF            123.21      +8.66             +7.56              3,985,300   
CLB           129.00      +1.85             +1.45              202,200     
CLF           137.33      +4.59             +3.46              1,529,600   
CLHB          63.31       +1.31             +2.11              330,400     
CMP           68.00       +3.95             +6.17              1,402,000   
CSX           56.90       -1.76             -3.00              5,374,600   
DRYS          66.25       +2.15             +3.35              3,494,500   
EOG           124.32      +2.88             +2.37              1,928,000   
FDG           57.70       +1.70             +3.04              2,796,400   
FLS           110.79      +1.37             +1.25              1,075,900   
FSLR          278.70      +27.10            +10.77             12,014,000  
FMCN           40.31     +1.56                                      3, 496,100

GLD           90.27       +0.85             +0.95              7,228,200   
GS            176.00      -0.53             -0.30              8,500,200   
GU            15.45       +0.46             +3.07              1,879,900   
ISRG          336.40      -0.59             -0.17              828,400     
IWM           71.43       +0.28             +0.39              61,536,000  
JLL           82.92       -1.54             -1.82              424,800     
JRCC          19.57       +0.34             +1.77              1,222,600   
JST           33.00       +3.00             +10.00             311,500     
LNN           110.64      +0.93             +0.84              534,500     
MA            228.05      -3.20             -1.38              1,952,500   
MELI          42.75       +3.11             +7.85              2,068,700   
MON           119.01      +1.22             +1.04              7,330,400   
MOS           115.70      +11.18            +10.70             14,330,800  
MTL           133.43      +3.42             +2.63              900,300     
POT           171.12      +3.45             +2.06              9,341,800   
RIG           144.15      +3.77             +2.69              7,897,100   
RIMM          120.12      -2.46             -2.01              24,431,500  
SPWR          90.40       +8.39             +10.23             6,129,800   
SPY           137.04      0.00              +0.00              204,473,000 
STLD          35.95       +1.65             +4.81              5,689,300   
SWC           17.12       +0.81             +4.95              2,360,500   
TBSI          33.35       +0.07             +0.21              429,400     
V             64.12       -1.38             -2.11              9,099,000   
WLT           69.66       +0.58             +0.84              3,094,800   
X             140.62      +2.71             +1.96              5,645,600   

DJIM #14 2008

As the jobless rate spiked down to 2003 levels, it is almost impossible to argue a recession is in place, but it is also impossible to say that the Bear haven't lost it's grip on the markets as we saw the Bulls pulling the indices up and shrugging off the jobless number.   As we discussed all last week, the ability of the market to hold onto its gain after the 3%+ rally was signalling the selling had cooled down and this time it would be different than what followed the March rallies of the same proportions.   If this is indecision on the sellers than its good sign as they are not sure of things as before, the only argument they may use now is calling the low volume suspicious and that they are just waiting to rattle the rally.   Either way, it's not your problem or ours as our goal is to capitalize when the chance arises and last week we think did just here as DJIM's players, our index you may say outperformed anything in sight.  We had some nice alert leads ahead of the curve on CMP, DRYS, MELI and it's nice to see them getting some headlines right after.     When you're ahead of the curve, you get a chance to sell to the herd!.  That's the game!.  CMP was noted on CNBC as a stealth play behind POT, MOS, we profiled it in December, and it spiked in premkt and was a feature story on IBD this weekend. DRYS was referenced on the front page of Barrons this weekend to a good story inside.    Heading into the week, it's quite simple as there is no reason to change what's working and that's everything off our primary watchlist relating to...." Agri/chem, Steels, high beta Technology to Shippers, Solars and even oil stuff".   What will most likely come to hand this week is an important technical picture to track.  This is where volume comes into play that wasn't there last week, if it comes to the upside it will drive the market through resistance 12800.  If we see the 12800 coming with dry volume, we will most likely take positions down and wait for a clearer picture to emerge.   Right now, the Transports are leading the way and that is a very important positive signal for what possibly lies ahead for the rest of the indices, including the general economy.   Little economic data flow this week should allow an opportunity to potentially trigger some of the resistances and that is what we'd closely track this week. 

We've tweaked the DJIM primary tradelist, shadow list.  We've taken down a few financials as we don't need to monitor, trade 4-5 now and a few others that are just boring now like SAM, HURC.    Still the latter are EPS wins and if we get that trade again as we're starting to see, we'd keep them close to our primary list.  We've added the GU, JST as more on the speculative side, reason speculative you may say is because we'd rather lay our bigger dollars on the expensive stuff that's been working as that is where the volume allowing for easy exit is and where the sideline money from institutions is flowing to.   In the good ole'days when EPS and sector plays from midcaps rolled these would be on top of our list probably.   Times have changed and we need to see the momo game come back to go heavy at this point in these types.   Remember, if the mkt reverses in anything that resembles the past, these lower volume, cheaper plays will slide harder and have bigger spreads going down as buyers will dry up.    Simply, don't become complacent now just because the market is good and you think you're indestructible.   Others are included following mentions in alerts, Journal the past two weeks....MELI, RIG, CSX, SCHN.    WLT is another name we're adding.

No biggie....day 2!

Despite all the negative earnings for a few cyclical companies , AA, AMD, the market showed little fear as it shrugged off an almost triple digit negative intraday move and then toyed with ending flat on the day.     Some corrective action is still needed, but some indices like the SPX just continue to be in a tightly held range.    Judging by the volume, both the Bull and Bear are acting like the news mongers they've become over the past months waiting for an excuse the run with the market either way.     Nobody wants to do anything it seems unless they get some hand holding in the way of bombastic news to guide them.    To us no news is good news and the only hand we're holding is that of our April hottie, our shadow/watchlist as it continues to lead us into greener pastures.   We could sit here all day, week and have what many are calling boring..ho'hum action while we all just profit here..it's all fine with us.     We've had plenty of nice moves in April and have pocketed many a gain, yet we are constantly coming back to our good friends.   Yesterday our friends even started to listen well after we alert noted a few may still shoot to highs into the close.  You really didn't need to do much all day and just catch the last half hour or even last 5 minutes with V, FDG, MELI.    These and a few others, mostly the shipping boys is where we're hanging out and to be honest are eager to get back in size on the steels etc.  The reason is our mouths are watering at the prospects of having this market rise.   Reason being is the financials are soooo' ready to lead us.   It's just a feelin', nothing really technical.    So, as all traders sit here, the Bears are waiting for recent history to repeat itself of the market sliding off these levels, hopefully hard on bad news, but we think they maybe are becoming complacent and will be in for some shock treatment.   

We're not going to go further today and jinx, you have the plays.  All we could say again is our mouths are watering, especially at the prospect of Bears foaming at the mouth shortly.  Uuuahh, we're getting nasty;)!.    Hey, if it doesn't happen, no biggie, we're happy with the damage we've done here recently and are not loaded to the hilt to take a hit if we don't get our way.  Hopefully, DJIMers' are feeling the same.  

Give us a move....

Both the bulls and bears are desperately seeking a move from this market.     Yesterday it looked like bears gained an upper hand through out most of the day but today's action is the complete opposite.    The only similarity between today and yesterday's action is that both days closed well below their intraday peak level respectively.     In either case, we are here to set up for something big down the road.    In terms of the bull/bear case, you can argue for hours straight without coming up with an agreement.     To us, seeing is believing.   Lets' see what GE does and even if its not been the essential measuring stick for the market in years, a disappointing report at this point will be ammunition for the Bears and will be blown out of proportions in our view.   How and if the market bounces from such an event will very telling of where we may be going. Instead of predicting to what may happen, we simply follow the action very closely and react to any sentiment change as we see it.     Basically, you can be a bear and buy up this market or you can be a bull and sell this market.   What we are trying to say is that no matter how you present the case, it's always the action that dictates one's final stand.     As traders, we are in a business of analyzing what people(majority) do, and not what they say.

Most of the sectors acted well on our screen with a couple of plays particularly standing out.    MELI is one of the plays that stands out.    We are simply amazed by not only its resilience to selling pressure last few days but also the strength and the volume kick very late it exhibited today.    This one is definitely high on the momentum end.    The speculative ones like JST and GU also behaved well last couple of days.    JST looks like it wants to challenge recent high soon and GU feels like it's one good day away from starting another leg up.     On the other end of the spectrum, we had MTL giving back to back big days, while others like MOS, POT, AKS, EOG... just inched higher.    Oh yeah, most stocks don't pulls those 10 or 15% move on a day very oftn, so for a $100+ stock, a couple dollar move is the norm and they add up over the time.     Basically, when you look at the close of some of the plays on a weekly basis, you'd know where the direction/trend these plays are pointing.    We try not to day trade plays like MOS, X.. but we'd rather add on slow days and sell on strong days.    In that case, we don't always get the best price on either selling or buying but we make sure we always have full interest in those plays and not to be out of them.

Next week is the real kick off of the earning season and if the reports aren't as bad as people fear, watch out above.    The reason why we are saying this is that the interest rate environment currently just does not favour idling cash or money market accounts.     We believe the lack of interest bearing instrument is forcing lots of accounts to get back into the equity market on any excuse.

GE who?

Short term memory.   Isn't that just the beauty of the markets and specifically earnings season!.   Just last Friday the global sky was flying and the noise of GE was vibrating into our eyes and ears for the next 72 hours, now INTC supposedly has solution for everything and anything and GE was just a bad dream.    Not to put a damper on things, but let's not get the bubbly out just yet!.    Sure...there are many a trader bludgeoned this year with an infatuation with tech and we welcome them back to bid up the market.   Hey, we can't eat coal and steel all day and every day so we'll help them out today, it's the least we could do with their beaten up techs.    But..today is only today as we don't really trust the lot and we need to really have them show us the money day in and day out this week.   Just like GE never happened, INTC maybe quickly forgotten if its brothers and sisters don't play fair the rest of the week.    Our strategy ain't changing overnight, we'll follow the herd and slice and dice the high beta's stocks  AAPL--RIMM--BIDU etc. for the moment, but we're not changing our diet that has been very, very good to us all.   You wanna see earnings!, wait till our stuff like the steels give guidance, it will put INTC's #'s to shame.    Anyways..on to yesterdays pre-INTC trading day....

Coals, this bunch seems unstoppable.  All we have to say is "look to MEE very soon as the chart looks to be setting up" and the damn thing explodes to over $50 even after gapping some. lol.  The good thing is these guys give you more than one opportunity a day as they slide down and give an another opportunity to enter in.  The same goes with PCX, if you didn't catch any of the previous days move it's all good cause you had a very nice chance to get some cheap yesterday.  FDG, WLT we like them all and whichever coal dips right is the one we are favoring at that time.

Solars,   with oil spiking to 113 it is no surprise to see these moving up.   Earnings are around the corner, SPWR corner is tomorrow and we are anticipating their numbers to dictate a lot of the action in days to come.  So we wait to dive deep, but it doesn't mean we're not dipping in our toes.  We did that with a fresh face yesterday in SOL for a few reasons.     We liked the supply contracts, we like the fact if the sector is heating up a 10million IPO name breaking out to a new high will get attention from traders.  It also has a pretty darn good IBD number and even if we haven't played this IBD $15 game for a long time, a solar that is eligible for IBD is hard to find!.    So, why not SOL to be in print!.    Too many continued to play the 15 dollar game at IBD for months now and it was a futile game.  What you need is not just a rating, you need the stock to be in a hot space!.    Maybe TITN was the last we recall and that was only because it was in the right place at the righ time (Ag').  We were quite aggressive buying it up yesterday.

A note EBAY is reporting tonight and so we were toying the idea around of MELI busting a move. 

..off to flip the pages of reports..the rush is starting with MBT, LUFK, CSX ...

Smell the roses...

Even before the market started trading today, we all knew that this was going to be a good day.   We just didn't know it could be that good!.  Not only did INTC provide us with some assurance that things aren't that "bad", we also got a couple of reports from JPM and WFC that were well received in the pre-market.     Economic data today was also inline and some big news from Potash all set the stage for a very positive open.    Bidding up some technology stocks was easy after Intel's earning, but never in our imagination that the rally today was so broad based.     There's literally hardly any stocks that finished negative on the day and many stocks finished 4%+ with some notable gainers from techs and agri/chem sector.  Our DJIM list lit up like a Christmas tree and it's only spring.

Oil gained again today and gold finished quite a bit higher.     U.S. dollar hit a new low and every commodity play got a bid today.   Yet, equity index held steady and finished near the high of the day as it grinded higher and higher.    Today's is one of the most steady up days we can recall in the last few months.    So what is wrong with this picture?    Nothing!     This is the exact theme we have been playing for months at DJIM.     As we pointed out for weeks, commodity market is basically in a bull market and any strength in equity market will bid up every commodity related plays as well when the time comes.

Here's the dilemma!    We think if it wasn't for the commodity market, which is becoming a bigger chunk of the equity market these days, our overall market might have been at a much lower level now.    Yes, we think that commodity market is the very reason the entire market did not crash lower the last few months.    It is strange but think about it.   Do we get up early every day the last few months knowing the credit crisis is bad and economy heading towards the recession and sulk?   No!    Because we've had plays such as POT, CMP, X, FDG, DRYS..... to look forward to.     Money has to flow somewhere to get some respectable return and it sure isn't going into treasury as you'd expect.

Here are some sector run downs...

Techs, with INTC's not so bad number and IBM's pretty good number out of the way, we'd expect this sector to heat up again.    No it doesn't mean that we'd challenge new highs soon but it just means that sentiment will be changed somewhat.    These days, an inline report will get you a nice price boost given that the "normal" expectation is for you to guide down.     We like beta plays such as RIMM, AAPL, BIDU because they really play into the psychology of "tech is still worth trading up".    Of course, GOOG's report Thursday is also significant and we feel that the combination of a low expectation from Google and the uncertainty of its report can potentially give traders another positive surprise.   Again, we don't play into the earnings, but if the report is half decent, we think GOOG can get back to $500 easy.

Coal, some of the names in the group will release earning soon and we'd continue to keep a close eye on this group.   We feel this group is getting the kind of action that's similar to the agri/chem group couple of months ago.    If this group has some positive things to say in their up coming reports, we'd be very aggressive in chasing some names up.     As far as trading wise, this group has been a champ last couple of weeks.

Agri/Chem, the biggest question right now on most people's mind has to be "is there an end to all this madness"?    Stock action wise, we are not sure at this point if the run-up will end any time soon.    News wise, we think this group will only get more and more good news down the road.   Basically, this group has the kind of pricing power any other industry would kill for.

Solars, maybe once FSLR hit $300, we'd finally get some rest. lol   We think the key in this group is not about their earning power, it's more to do with the oil price these days.    Basically, with the way crude moves, this group has nothing to lose.    We'd buy on any small dips at this point.   We like SOL the most at this point and we'd play very aggressive on dips with it.   SPWR earnings Thursday will be closely watched by solar junkies.

Shippers,  recently we alerted to these guys saying sooner than later they will ride the wave of coal and steels and that idea is paying off big time.    We also don't think the move is over as all the commodity stocks are hitting new highs left and right.    We've added back EXM to our shipper list today.

Steels, just buy the group! lol   Ok,  NUE is set to release report tomorrow and we'd see how others react to it.    This is actually the group which we have the lightest exposure now,  but we are waiting for opportunities to get back in.   Congrats to X hitting the $150+ mark, yep it was around $110-115 when we alerted first.  SCHN, MTL,STLD wow as well!

Oh yeah and MELI busted the move didn't it!.  Yesterday was our exit day pre Ebay report, it's been a good ride since being alerted and now we back up momentarily.

Bottom line, things are getting apparent that not every company is being affected by credit crisis and a slowing economy.     We should not treat every company as if it's the next GE or BSC and be rational about the whole situation.     In addition, we are still enjoying this ever lasting commodity bull market.

DJIM primary shadowlist

Our platform list at close Friday,

Symbol  News  Last Price  Chg (Prev Close)  %Chg (Prev Close)  Volume   Low  
     
AAPL          181.08      +1.08             +0.60              35,931,400   178.55  
AKS           65.72       +2.79             +4.43              2,719,400    62.73   
AXYS          56.20       +0.96             +1.75              203,200      55.49   
BDX           88.27       -0.97             -1.09              977,300      87.94   
BIDU          362.00      -8.00             -2.16              4,117,500    357.60  
BZP           21.65       +1.89             +9.56              1,300,700    19.78   
CF            135.12      +3.08             +2.33              1,860,300    131.18  
CLF           159.96      +5.15             +3.33              2,142,700    153.85    
CMP           66.40       +2.80             +4.40              738,100      63.86   
CTRP          67.87       +2.82             +4.34              1,426,000    66.03   
DRYS          90.75       +7.54             +9.06              5,310,500    84.50   
EDU           75.73       -0.31             -0.41              318,900      75.13   
EOG           127.22      +0.37             +0.29              2,975,400    123.92  
EXM           43.23       +3.17             +7.91              1,450,900    40.50   
FDG           63.50       +2.73             +4.49              1,318,600    60.78   
FLS           123.57      +1.49             +1.22              677,000      121.77  
FSLR          277.50      +14.15            +5.37              4,754,900    266.70  
**FXI           164.00      +1.84             +1.13              4,882,600    162.45  
GS            200.27      +1.22             +0.61              9,437,500    198.00  
HES           106.34      +3.88             +3.79              3,905,800    103.51  
IPI           44.75       -0.33             -0.73              2,972,900    43.68   
**IWM           72.69       -0.06             -0.08              58,836,700   72.24   
JRCC          24.16       +2.48             +11.44             1,095,200    21.67   
JST           38.91       +1.09             +2.88              83,200       38.00   
**KOL           45.23       +2.11             +4.89              197,500      43.01      
LNN           100.65      -3.09             -2.98              468,700      99.81   
LUFK          74.99       +0.65             +0.87              144,600      74.81   
MA            285.50      -8.44             -2.87              4,470,400    281.85  
MEE           52.81       +1.77             +3.47              1,769,300    51.32   
MELI          50.25       0.00              +0.00              554,100      49.80   
MER           52.72       +0.33             +0.63              20,350,600   52.08   
MON           114.51      +0.85             +0.75              7,392,500    111.72  
MOS           124.90      +2.35             +1.92              6,247,600    120.15     
MTL           145.36      +7.51             +5.45              1,172,300    137.44  
NS            53.45       +0.43             +0.81              138,300      53.16   
PCLN          126.37      -1.86             -1.45              1,621,600    122.87  
PCX           68.02       +2.76             +4.23              275,100      64.49   
POT           186.94      +3.78             +2.06              12,151,800   184.64  
RIG           151.71      +5.95             +4.08              5,817,400    146.50  
RIMM          132.52      +4.52             +3.53              18,962,400   129.48  
SCHN          87.79       +1.39             +1.61              508,100      86.13   
SOHU          77.89       +2.45             +3.25              3,110,300    75.00   
SOL           16.00       +0.38             +2.43              981,100      15.85   
**SPY           141.65      +0.53             +0.38              181,585,500  140.56  
TBSI          44.25       +1.58             +3.70              697,900      42.29   
V             82.95       -2.45             -2.87              34,162,100   81.00   
WLT           72.95       +5.24             +7.74              4,146,500    66.13   
X             157.06      +5.40             +3.56              4,373,600    151.24  

** denotes ETF