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Entries in pot (1)


Good ole days ...

At least, judging from the performance of this market during the last few days, we got a glimpse of what the market was like back in the good ole days.   No matter how you see it,  the trading lately has been just crushingly painful for the bears (shorts).     Maybe, they are also responsible for this never ending rally we are currently enjoying.    We closed at SPX 833, going out near day highs.   Everything except the financials rallied today and the action was pretty broad based.   It's great to see others step up to the plate and lead today.  Transports broke through 50ma and the $SOX SMH  passed the hurdle noted yesterday (good signs, now hold!).   With regard to the financials, we aren't worried a bit because the monstrous gains they had during the past two weeks really need to be cooled off a bit.   Today the best performers of late and those that surged late yesterday took the day off, some profit taking, some rotation into other arms such as Asset Managers has been seen lately.    Even today's alerted stock ICE ($77 to $81 day high) benefit from recent headlines as they will eventually play a major role in the CDS clearing markets.   As long as the financials consolidate in a good range, everything has a chance to go up.    This is pretty much the underlying theme for this market lately.

At this point, we don't really care how high it can go or how much longer it'll last.   Until the market sentiment changes, we are staying on the long side.    Believe it or not, for the longest time, it felt this market had unlimited sell supply and therefore neverending selling pressure.    The last few days felt money is being poured back into this market.    We really haven't had such "late day rally and take out day high" kind of action in a long while.    For this market to demonstrate this kind of behaviour in spite a recent 25% gain already, it's just remarkable.    This is where we have to make up our mind and perhaps change our mentality towards a more neutral, if not a somewhat bullish stance on the outlook for the remainder of this year.     Financials so far have been stabilized as a result of more money being put into the system.   It may not be the best solution, but at least most of us agree that given time, it can work.    With recent news that home sales are picking up slightly, that's also another positive sign for the bulls.

Commodities, all of us must be loving them these days.    Everything from FCX  to POT  to CLF  are having a great run recently.    We already discussed this in detail last week on why we like this sector and this week has been proved to be nothing short of great action.    If you look at the 6 months charts on plays such as MOS MON POT (BHP for POT??)  *( March 31st is a very date/ USDA supply and demand planting preview), OIH or the index itself $CRX,  it's as if we are on a verge of a major breakout.    The potential is there and we just have to wait to see how it plays out.    However, we do have to keep an open mind here because alot of the news lately has been quite bullish for the sector.    If the breakout is going to happen,  now is actually a good time.

Approximately a week into April, we'll officially kick off the earning season.    This means we'll get a more in depth look of the corporate earning front and as well as gauge the investor reaction off those reports.  We have a strong feeling that we might actually get a few nice earnings winners this time around.   Considering how bad equities have been beaten down, we might get a nice surprise or two and ignite some serious buying interest.   

A few days still left till Q end and todays broad action was a sign of performance anxiety from the 'Whales'.

Oh yeah, speaking of good ole days, today's Solar frenzy  is assuming the best, important details are missing in the China paper.  Also, a China subsidy would not be a revenue pop for US based solar co's as it would favor 'in- house' co's.   A short play possibility here as firms most likely to knock this.