Ahead of the open, (02-02)

Nothing new or catalytic caused the gap up.  Global PMI’s just reiterated the consistent ‘growth’, but risk related assets actually lagged some early and then led equities lower by close.  Bank stocks in Europe and here don’t lead off PMI’s as was the case today.  Maybe every financial was rumored to be running the Facebook IPO!.  In all, it wasn’t the standard rotation trade of 2012 as the safety sectors had money flow as well.  Maybe it was just fresh money being deployed broadly and indiscriminately at the start of the month, just to be in the game.

As far as PMI’s, U.S inline numbers were a win –win situation.  If we had ‘better than expected’ headlines, it may have invoked some QE debating.  A weak number and QE aspirations would rise because it would suggest growth is waning.  In those two scenarios today, the market likely would not have gone higher, thus just being inline was enough as it keeps all factors of 2012 going as far as economy (is strong enough) and QE speak (eco’ not robust enough) is concerned.  An example is probably China’s #, it’s PMI curbed easing chatter and it’s market fell 1 % off the ‘better than expected’ print despite ‘hard landing’ off the table.   This chance was noted last week in “better than expected” PMI’s selling off.  The fact it was only China, selling luckily only stayed in Asia.  All in, the bullish macro landscape from December still exists today with CB accommodative policies helping ‘risk on’ around the world, especially in fixing Europe through LTRO, which has brought down Italian and Spanish yields greatly and kept Eurozone economies from falling into pieces.

As good as today seemed, (maybe because it’s one of the few nice gains since the first trading day of the year), we are still about 10 handles off the recent top and in a range tug of war.  

• As far as mid-small cap earnings:  IACI, added last Q and LQDT  had solid earnings in the morning. CVLT also here in November was okay.  MKSI  AH’s was solid.

Ahead of the open, (10-02)

Anyone expecting a ‘supposed’ Greece agreement to be a market mover was disappointed. Anyone expecting ECB to hint on long term liquidity operations was marginally disappointed as well; Draghi kept it all under his vest, but you’d do the same not to screw up demand for the 36month LTRO on 02/29, (so, it’s not really a surprise).  In all, Draghi was more positive on associated Eurozone risks, which could have been good enough for the market sentiment now, but it wasn’t.  Only thing to materialize was more of the same as another morning dip was bought, swinging the SP a few points above previous days close.(Can you say.. all AAPL!).  Tape gets thinner as R2K slightly underperforms again and in this view CSCO demonstrated the fatigue angle noted to watch off earnings yesterday.  Last week’s note of high expectations bar set: eco’/earnings/ Eurozone possibly being priced in reared its head today with Initial claims/ CSCO/ Greece/ECB being the role players.

Still, although the tape is seemingly going sideways, it’s really gliding and can move into SP1370 this month after hitting our 1350’s target on a breakout from 1327.  The market may have hit July ’11 highs today and a few other possible technical points are inches away for resistance, (but, feels in many ways like it did preceding last week’s breakout, including the negative feeling tired).  Considering the magnitude of the technical breakout that followed last week, which includes many other factors beyond ’07-’10 trend-line break (ie, #of new highs noted) confirming the move, it wouldn’t surprise to tack on more SP points down the road,(Bernanke may/may not help some Friday?).  All in, due to the factors noted above, it just may take more than the very shallow dips we’ve seen this week for this to occur.

Software gave tech/ Nasdaq a bid off the TLEO deal (SABA >6%) and AKAM earnings. Aided softies FTNT FIRE CVLT  here to fresh highs.

In all, stocks Shadowed’ prior to July crash are once again reporting excellent results. (latest ie. RL  WFM  V.)  Also, names like AKAM  have been rebooted by earnings after falling off the list early last year.