same recipe..new ingredients

Yes, we are  referring to our trading strategy at this moment.   Basically, during the earning season, what else are you going to play besides the earning plays?    The key for us here, is to recognize a good earning play right AFTER they announce the earning.  There are many beating, raising and the masses chase the gap and then churn all day like an IVAC in a .70 cent range...Boring!...  Here, we try to recognize more upside short term ...gap or no gap...same day or within days.   It's easy to get sucked in by a pretty EPS number, many did with IIG today at $23,24.  It's not that easy to recognize what will work, headline chasers get whipped and it only takes one bad entry to leave you marked and bruised!.   Of course, initial earning reaction within minutes may not be the best indicator and that's why we usually get in a small starter position right away in a selective one and monitor the progress of the action through out the day to determine the playability of a particular report.    Unless of course, we have this special "gut feeling" that the earning report is sooo good and we just have to buy it with a decent size no matter what.     As we all have experienced before, strong earning play don't last just a day.   If an earning report is very good, it sometimes takes days if not weeks to really sink into people's mind.    It means that there's plenty of time to buy even after the strong "gap up" reaction of a stellar earning report.    Also, believe us, not all institution can buy all of the shares off the earning report in one day.    Here are some new ingredients...and what was cooking!

MDCI, this one hit our radar in pre market but we had no clue how the street is going to react despite the fact we liked the report.   So, we get a starter position and wait.  This stock was alerted in the low $35 and it finished up about 3 bucks from that point on.  Of course, we added to that starter and hopefully you did too.  We have to say that the performance of the stock is definitely more impressive than the earning itself.    The split is also coming up so we think that's also an added factor as well going into the close.    The stock will trade on split adjusted basis on the 9th and we have been trading this one very aggressively today. MDCI reported .38 beating two estimates by .08, revenues 67mln vs 59mln.

EML, well, we got lucky and unlucky. The co' had a release the other day saying earning release was the 8th but then we got this early move to $24 and sold the majority of our alert from Monday.  Looks like one wire had the results, but most didn't till about 10:30.  Luckily, we were still watching the action and jumped on the surge still not really knowing what the heck was going on...but hey, you go with the flow!.  Something had to be up and it had to be good!.  How else do you explain the rush of volume into a quiet stock?.   If there's only one downside to the earning reaction is that it did not close nearly as good as MDCI.   Is this something to get worried?   Well, unless you feel their earning report will get reaudited down the road, we feel that there's absolutely nothing to be concerned about today's close.  In fact, it still closed pretty well and given the thinness of the stock, this one can climb up with some meaningful percentage in no time.   Again, valuation looks even more attractive with EML compared to CCF and we have a gut feeling that this one will trade better than CCF, less choppy that is.  This is just an example of a thinster being discovered, we like to think we did that last Q as these numbers were somewhat in the cards.;).   Don't forget why we got in Monday...Jefferies picked up 54k shares from the co'.  That was the look into the keyhole of EML and todays report..The Eastern Company reports Q4 EPS $0.96 vs $0.23 in 4Q05, revs +76% to $49.7 mln :"2006 was a very good year. We set records in Sales and Earnings and our backlogs have increased. Notwithstanding the positive impact of $19 million dollars of shipments toward fulfilling a military contract, the Company's "core" sales increased 10% for the year and 17% in the fourth quarter, the 17th consecutive quarter of improved year to year sales. We are optimistic that trend will continue into 2007... The military contract to deliver door latching components to be used in retro-fitting the up-armored military Humvees will continue into 2007.  These activities will be positive factors toward sustaining.  http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/10/2/eml.html

CGX, this one we did not alert but feel that it also came out with a very good report.  We think we had enough today and don't want our readers to get confused with 3 similar alerts.  There's something about these "expensive" stock that we like since they just tend to be less volatile than the "cheaper" stocks once they report a similar strong earning report.   We added this one to the top of our watch list also. We have seen this trade well off reports before and think it has some legs after this jump.

USAP/CNS, basically even the strongest stocks need to rest when they had such a good run-up since their report.   Just look at their chart, neither stock has closed below 9 ema ever since they came out with their report.   Things are still looking very much intact with these two but we feel we all should be paying more attention to the newer earning play.  Basically, we're still eating up the reports, it's just not same restaurant every day.  But considering these are two of our core plays this Q, we're surely to be back buying in size soon.

Watching MFW early tomorrow with a chance of adding..hunch

HXM has had a nice few days, CCOI had a very nice day

The bottom line is that nobody needs to be stuck on an out of favour play.   With the earning season, you are almost guaranteed that there'd be something new and fresh coming around the corner.   There's really no need to be afraid to play a new stock because no matter how unfamiliar you are with a company, the trading of that stock should always be familiar to you.    We are looking forward to tomorrow.

cheers, 

Resiliency continues...

We definitely had some resilient action going on today.   There's just not enough force to knock this market down, especially DJIM stocks.     In any case, we feel that a big market move is in the cards to get us out of this range bound trading environment.    At this point, it's almost pointless to speculate which way the market wants to go.   The only thing we can do is to be prepared one way or the other.   Fortunately the indecision of the market isn't deterring some movers from the small cap land.    Here are some few worth noting...

EML, what else are you gonna talk about first? lol    Again, this one followed through very nicely and we added some.    When it comes to an earning play like this one, it's very hard to say where the initial run-up will end and stop.    What we do know, however, is that the first pullback has to be bought aggressively.   How high can the initial run-up can go?   Your guess is as good as ours and we just have to take it day by day.

EDU HMIN,  in the case of EDU, yesterday in the forum we said around $40.50 this is being walked up to the offering price..Well..well,  the pricing for the secondary was announced tonight at $41.50/shr. For EDU, that's heck of a pricing.   We think the recent rise in price in conjunction with this pricing is the fact there's lots of institutional demand for this share offer.   This one is definitely interesting as 7 million shares at 40+ bucks isn't chump change for institutions.    Basically, we like this one again(what else is new), now that the cloud is lifted.    HMIN, simply broke out!   We bought this breakout as mentioned in the Forum after noting on it and we are looking for follow throughs.   Again, at this stage either take the points on moves and wait for a pullback or just stick through the tough days cause it just keeps going higher. You should know how it works by now.

VE,  this euro has been a nice steady performer from 68's and it's definitely not a small cap..lol. Tonight we noticed its been upgraded to a buy by Dresdner in Europe.  Looks like a $77 area target.  Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort upgrade Veolia Environnement SA from "hold" to "buy." The target price has been raised from E48 to E60.  In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company secured extra revenues of about €1.5 billion per annum from contract wins and acquisitions in 2006. Veolia Environnement is poised to increasingly benefit from its maturing contracts, the analysts believe. These contracts offer visibility into cash flows, which the company can reinvest to maintain above-average profit growth, Dresdner Kleinwort adds. Veolia Environnement has limited commodity exposure, the analysts add.

GLDN, talk about resiliency!!. Just incredible $4 dollar move from 9ema levels in one day.  If you're reading the Journal, Forum..looking at charts you are up to speed and probably making nice trades in this stock.  Believe it or not, this finished 4 cents off a NCH after yesterdays dismal day.  Will it bust out soon or will this become a visit to a potential wall?.  Give us a good Naz and this baby will go higher!

MFW, AVZA had nice days and finished right up there at the highs and we were adding to both along the way.

MDCI, last night we said the action was better than the earnings.  Today, we can only say the action was worse than the earning indicates.  A few things...yesterdays action, especially the close was probably toooo ' good and we probably should have exited the last 10 minutes when the stock had a final big stick up.   Unfortunately, the action by noon today showed we should leave for the time being.   Something might have been said at the CC after the close and for us it's always better to leave and ask questions later.  It also could have been a D grade, likely on valuation.  We don't care much for these as we've seen plenty of stocks shake these off quickly.  We think this one will, maybe as quickly as tomorrow on split day and we will aggressively buy back to add to our original starter.

CGX, we added today to this name as the action was much better than what you saw in MDCI.  An almost identical day to MDCI yesterday and today this one showed it might be the better of the two.

SSRX,  this one is actually a Chinese biotech IPO from yesterday.  Its debut action was not impressive but today's action felt much better.   This is a profitable co. as well and we bought a starter position in this one.  There are lots of IPO's the last few days, we're dipping here for a start around $16.

SYNL, thin stock seem to rule these days.   Earning came out and it didn't take much for this one to move.  We are keeping a close eye on this one to see if there's any follow through.  We have some thoughts on it in the Forum, we are looking for the angles (eth) here more than the earnings to play it in the future.

Untrustworthy

That's what we think of the index move today.   Of course, if you listened to CNBC all day, this is nothing but another rosy day for this market.    If this is an actual rally, why do we find lack of opportuntities to trade?    Trust our eyes, instead of our ears!    You can trade deaf, but you can't trade blind!   Ok, enough of this corny wisecracks! lol   The truth is, we aren't finding many opportunities to trade today,  so we sat mostly on our hands.  There might not be a load to play, but there sure have some nice points in ONXX BW and CENX the last 2 days here.  Selective is the name of the game, now!  A few things that looked interesting today besides these names..

CENX USAP,   CENX obviously got some bid early on b/c of the Alcoa news, but hey Alcoa was the reason we picked this as the Aluminum play over ERS in small cap land.   Anyway, this is very natural b/c this is how the sympathy plays work and hope some of you played it off the alert, if you already don't have it as a hold.   Last week in the forum, we wondered why CENX was lagging the sec. at $44 off the upgrades of the big aluminum plays.  Today all this paid off as it spiked to $49 in the first 10 minutes.  A day like this sure gets CENX's name out there as a sec play, even though there may be absolutely no chance for CENX to get any kind of benefit from a potential Alcoa takeover.   Ride it while the effect lasts!     USAP may also benefitted a little from the AA news,  so it's not a surprise.  What we're glad to see is that USAP held its 9 ema convincingly.   Lets just cross our fingers and hopefully it gets some good trading from this point on.

OEH, our lux lodging play into EPS put it's first close in over $49 NCH and VE, put its first close over $72 while here at DJIM. Guess, it pays to have some NYSE stocks to follow in the middle of the takeover, record share repurchase blab about the Dow.

EML SYNL, not much to say about these two and we are hoping these can turn into a flag pattern.

CGX, this one really showed what we like and that is immediate strength after it gave up some of the early gains following earning.

Basically, we are biting our time with this market.   It doesn't mean that we are going hibernation but we are simply waiting for something to happen.    Knowing this game, something will always happen sooner or later and they come at a time when you are least expected.

Seeing is believing...

Basically, when dealing with a market that mocks your intelligence more often than you would ever admit, the only sense that we have to rely on is our eyes.    Throw away any predictions and throw away any bias, what you see is what you get and the best movers may not be the ones we had in our mind sometimes but this is definitely the fundamental concept of stock trading.    Had we predicted with 100% accuracy with 100% correct timing, we probably wouldn't be trading stocks as what is the fun in that? lol     Then what is the important issue here?   In our opinion, the ability to quickly spot the ongoing trend and recognize which plays are working better than the others and act on it with a sensible strategy is the key to survive in this market.     We think the market has definitely got tougher compared to a couple of years ago.    As they say, the tougher it gets, the tough gets going.     Market always behaves in a dynamic environment and our trading minds will somehow adapt to this ever changing environment and trade accordingly.   The worst thing when dealing with a dynamic market is to be stuck in the yesterday's frame of mind.    Plays come and go and change constantly, our methodology will have to be improved all the time to adapt to the newer plays and what's working out there.    Ok, lets tackle some of the working plays here....

CYNO, we noticed this one a couple of days ago off their earning report and wanted it give it a day or two to see how it reacted to the gap up.   Obviously, gap is being held and that's a very good sign.    We looked at it a bit further and realizing this one has a pretty small float and that's another good sign.   After checking the IBD #, with 96, 90 A rating, this further ups our view on this stock.   So the decision was quick and easy and we grabbed a starter in the low 23s and added more as the stock strengthened up.   Cowan raised estimates and WRH is a big fan now as well.

CSV,  DJ news reported a whole bunch of insider buys on Feb. 13th.   We are not sure if they are open buys or not and look as though they are not.   There were a total of 120k shrs bot by 6 different insiders and they were all bought at $6.40/shr.   So one thing we can definitely rule out is that there's won't be much or any of the insider sales anytime soon.    This is just the common sense that if all those insiders were willing to put in their own money into a stock that just made a new 52 week high after an earning report, there's no reason we shouldn't either.    A business is a business and as long as the business is legitimate, we are not going to give anymore thought to that.

MFW, this is one stock which we are officially giving a "kick a$$" title today.    There will be sometime before they report so as long as the market is in a neutral to bullish mode, we trade it on the long side.  We've had this core hold and USAP up every night this week as the reversal started.

USAP, a new 52 week high today and only as little as two days ago, this one is fighting off 9 ema.    Strong stock, nothing more to it.

VTRU, we aren't disputing anyone's claim of how much more this thing is worth so we are sticking to "seeing is believing" attitude.  First in the $43's off earning here, we said we'd back. Today the chart cried for a good look.

A few others we reminded to keep watch on today, SSRX from last week, CXW, AVZA made NCH but we'd like to see some more volume to sustain this.   Also, if a stock like EML is to bounce from 9ema levels it doesn't mean it has to touch it...it's just too thin to play that game.  CCOI might be worth a further look as it comes to highs.

We have 3 days off coming up and there will be some profit taking into it, but if that's your worry...you should have been selling into strength these last few days.  After a week like this, dip buyers will be waiting for your shares tomorrow.

SYNL Synalloy Corporation / EML Eastern Company

Looking to find the next gem to put under your pillow?.  SYNL was first on DJIM at the open at $16 last Q, now it is trading at $26.40 with IBD #'s of 99 97 and more than 60% higher than that day in October.  In October, we also profiled another undiscovered stock by the name of EML at around $18.  This Q it reported breakout earnings and has traded to almost $28.  Up over 50% since DJIM first covered the company.  These are a few examples of companies we like to call undiscovered crawlers, but this is just one facet of DJIM trading/investing which includes almost daily alerts on the days next possible fast mover.  Also because we follow these companies closely,  it allowed DJIM readers to be right there in the early action on the most recent earnings releases.  For a complete list of winners from the 2nd half of 2006,  visit our preview section in the navigation bar. Scroll down to see some of the catches of 2007!.

Monday, October 23, 2006 at 09:30AM-  SYNL, Excellent Q from this very thin traded, low float stock (5mln). Anything to do with pipes and chemicals we usually like...As usual we don't chase and end up holding the top, watch reaction..volume etc for a possible entry as we always say. .39 vs. 09EPS for Q (2.4mln vs.525k Net.one time small gain in there it seems...still this look good with eps in the .30's., backlog sweet

Monday, October 2, 2006 at 12:50PM-  EML was developing a latch for Humvees in '05, last week was the pay off as they received a first order and then a second from Armor Holdings (AH) to retrofit humvees. The 2 contracts worth "31 mln" will be split between the next 2 Q's (sales to hit between SEPT-MAR).. Eastern makes about 100mln in Revenue a year....hmmm nice bump coming as soon as next report.  The stock is extremely thin but moved nicely late last week due to a 3/2 split announced. The real news is the contracts that were not released in a official PR but sit quietly in the sec. filings. The chart is nice, the split works and the potential for thousands of more HV's to be retro-fitted and therefore revenues climbing. Added to DJIM holds....wanted to intro this on a dip but now not sure that will come soon enough.

Solar...Solar

Now only if our entire portfolio is made up of these solar plays, then we wouldn't be worrying about the choppiness of this market.   The truth of the matter is, when you have become a mature trader, it's just hard to dedicate a meaningful percentage of your portfolio to plays like these.   We have been playing these solar plays for a while now but results are definitely not the same as the stock's performance suggests.    Well, this is part of the game and we just have to weigh in and balance out different plays with different kind of risk/reward ratios.    The market looked a little worrisome intraday and despite a late pick up in the market indices, many of the most recent strong stocks we follow still ended up in red.     Unfortunately, when the only group of stocks you are trading are the ones that are near 52 week high, this sort of behaviour is common when they lose a little steam.    We reduced some exposure today and we are still going home with a cautionary note.     At this point, we have no bias on the overall market and we are certainly not sticking our necks out to see which way the wind is blowing.     We are taking some of the trading opportunities from some hot sector and some story stocks to make our trading days a little more meaningful.

TSL,  yes it looks like one of our members gave it a royal pom pom blessing and it closed at the high today.   The momentum certainly looks strong and it feels like there is more upside to come.   Right now, this play is really beyond the eps/outlook but rather it's more momentum based as we've said before.   What you see is what you get and it's a little pointless taking the fundamental into the account when the daily swing is 10%+.    We have been busy trading this one on the long side but we are taking this play as is.   We do want to caution that when this one does pull back, don't expect just a one or two point pullback, be prepared for some dramatic movement. In the meantime, even a technical newsletter bull on SOLF can bring the others into play once again.  It could also work the other way, so be on guard and don't get carried away.

FSLR, we don't know if this one is following TSL or the other way around but the end result is similar.   This one also closed pretty good and pace seems a bit controlled compare to TSL.    Even though FSLR's gain is conservative compare to TSL, we feel it's also way less risky when it comes to actual trading.    Again, it's really up to an individual to decide which one he/she is more comfortable with.  But as we said yesterday, we are more concerned with the strongest at a particular time...hitching a ride and not asking for names.

EML, yes volume is really laughable in this one today but it's only a buck or two off the all time high.   Keep an eye on this one as this is back in play in our book and watch for further volume increase to look for trading opportunities.

MFW, nice rebound so far. The best way to trade this is go with the flow as the institutions will do the calculating on the debt of one part of the company and the value of the licorice biz etc..  We are not about to crunch the numbers,  it's easier to go with the flow. If this continues it should top the recent top going into MFW's full earnings which appear to be in mid March.  Plenty of time to catch on,  if we get a continuation of the big run recently.

UEIC, we added this one to our watchlist on Friday and bought a starter.    We liked its earning number but more importantly its earning reaction.   This one is actually an institution's favourite too as 75% of the float is held by them.   We are definitely keeping a close eye on it to see any further development.

Briefingcom bit, Barron's reports Universal Electronics (UEIC) shareholder Neal Goldman, who runs Goldman Capital, believes shares could appreciate by up to another 50% in 12 to 18 months, based on increasing penetration of the markets for HD TV and digital-video recorders. He's also enthused about new products like Universal's Nevo SL controller that orchestrates everything from HDTV to music stored on a computer and routed through a home-stereo system. "If you take away the $4.50 a share in cash from the [roughly] $25 stock, you are looking at a stock that's trading at a very low multiple of 16 and that can grow at a rate nearly twice that," Goldman maintains. The co's sales and earnings, reported late Thursday, topped Wall Street's consensus estimate, lifting the shares more than 23% Friday alone. Universal also raised its Q1 guidance. DirecTV (DTV) and Comcast (CMCSA), which utilize Universal's technology for their set-top control boxes on an OEM basis, are its biggest customers, providing 19% and 11% of revenue, respectively. The co's technology is also used in DVRs that TiVo (TIVO) and the cable/satellite operators supply to their customers. The real allures, according to Avondale Partners are its intellectual property -- a portfolio of patent-protected technology -- and market position, with 75% market share in providing remote controls to U.S. cable operators," director of research John Bright says. Their library includes more than 260,000 device codes, which allow its devices to plug into more than 2,400 brands worldwide.

We like Avondale..past success with their money

BTJ, IBD's "New America" section gave this one a pop today and this is definitely one of the most interesting oil service plays out there.    Maybe this one is getting the kind of exposure it needs to price it at a relatively higher valuation.   We think once the IBD fever dies down, it'll go back to the old "track the crude price" behaviour.   It's just at this point, it's hard to say how much higher of a price it's going to sustain with this new found IBD exposure. Day to Day with these as before.

All in all, this is mostly a "do nothing" day for us other than a few selective plays.    We are sticking to "play with the flow" strategy and not to lean either way until every signal we see points heavily in one direction.

Churning..

and possibly more churning ahead of us!    Despite the fact we are green today, we are very much in a churning mode.    As far as the overall picture is concerned, this is considered healthy.     We churn churn until we see a clear break out or break down of the major indices.    If we break out, we would know exactly where the resistance is but if we break down, it's hard to gauge the exact support line.   Of course, you can always argue that last July's low may be the area but we feel that low may be too low for the current market environment.  All this market gibberish does not mean there were not a load of tradable opportunities from this weekends DJIM#11 and that is all we care about end of day!.

So what's happening with the market these days?   We think many Briefing.com chasers have the answer and we are sure they are having a blast taking advantage of some of the headlines there over the past 2 weeks.  We have said its a traders market the past 10 trading days, it's a scalpers market and this all most use the service for.   Does that mean we all have to switch our strategy now to a day trader mentality and chase the headlines one at a time?   Of course, we were all going a little brain dead sitting in a lot of cash, but it does not mean you switch your strategy and start going for the headlines just because you are a little bored.  If you're not at work...Have an early drink and then a nap but don't switch your style!.    DJIMstocks.com is not for scalpers, headline chasers.  Scalping, flipping headlines is not for the majority of subscribers here and this type of trading is not for us.    For us, we just can't see ourselves going through that transformation and there were many lessons learned from the past that we have to stick to what we are good at, more so now than ever.     Besides, there's really no art or longevity to trading briefing type of plays unless you have no trading life or life and can address and listen to 300 "peeps" alerts all day..then read and then be ready to jump in and out.   We prefer to use our own imagination and our own opinions.  It helps as any news wire, but it's not something we need or would ever live by to trade.  Also,  it's two of us against 300 of them in an office and we still get out enough winners to live off before they get to profiling them.  That has been shown way too many times over the past few years.  Anyways...We gave a weekend hit list for Monday as to what we'll be looking to trade.  You didn't need a Briefing for these moves, all you needed was a "lead' from DJIM;).. FSLR+11.2%  TSL+9.2%  CYNO +8.45% BTJ +7.5% JSDA+9% or give a "one damn eye " on AFAM when it had traded 100 shares premarket at 20.90 and then later to a high of $23.90.   Nobody is expected and we don't expect to catch all these moves, but if you had a small hit list as given last night... you should have had a stellar day just by going after one or two.   What we are giving is what we are looking at, if you don't want to look at it and give it some attention when its behaving well..meaning it's green and getting interest....well then you're missing the point of DJIMstocks.  You should not be looking for other opportunities if these are in front of you already and working.  We become oblivious to other names when the going is this good.  All efforts and capital are with what is working!!!.  No time for laggards!!!  No time to look for other plays.     OK...   We weren't fans of JSDA and said last night we'll see...well we saw very good interest and traded it but still are not waving the Maple Leaf flag.  Still fresh on our minds as per Journal and IBD listing and therefore this should've been on top of your trading list as well for the day. End of day we are empty of it, but will play it again. No flag burning, we will just wait to see if it has more in its tank. 

So how do we approach this market then?    We are still finding some of those earning plays that we've been covering for a while and singling them out as our trading candidates.   Here are some more...

BTJ, could it be that ppl are discovering this stock for the first time and trading it like a momo or could it just all be IBD fever?    We think it may be a little of both and we are definitely leaning more toward that IBD thesis and as pointed out last night the steadiness of Oil over $60 recently..helps!.   Yes, it's ranked as #1 IBD100 over the weekend and the reaction today is very good, especially given the fact how much it has climbed last week.    At this point, we have to caution that being IBD #1, this stocks's fundamental may be thrown out the window and momentum/trading will be taking the dominant force behind the action.   Watch the action more and don't ever let your feeling of "how much the stock should be worth" get in the way of making proper entry/exit point as the stock behaves along.

FSLR TSL, this pair has definitely been our favourite solar plays, or rather, the only solar plays we trade during the last few days.    Again, we'd favour FSLR slightly more here as TSL is more prone to "gap downs" off weakness in Asia.    Also, we are pointing out that these two are mainly eps driven, and this is the reason why these two have the biggest momentum among the solar space.    See, the action still comes down to earning.     So are we going to play any other solar laggards?   At this point, we aren't even considering touching any other solar plays b/c in the world of stock market, only the best get rewarded.   In other words, there's no second or third place when it comes to naming a best play.     We have been trading these ones aggressively on the long side but we have been doing it with smaller sizes than we would normally do in a favourable market condition.    

EML, this little one made a new closing high but we aren't willing to give it a hard chase b/c of the volume and still just hold a part of position from earning time.  The point of pointing this one out is that odds are always on your side when you are stuck with an "eps story" as oppose to other kind of plays. Just look how far SYNL, EML have come since being DJIM insertions last Q. If you want to tuck a stock in a drawer these thinsters with earnings provide a safe play early on.  AFAM and EML are very similar, except AFAM has a history of holding its big gains better.  AFAM made a revenue high of 26.32mln and reported a high EPS Q of 26c vs. 16 YOY.  We held a small piece through to close after taking advantage in some of the 3 pt move intraday.  Simply, we don't want DJIM filled with these plays at this time, it does not mean you can't put it in a drawer.  It just should not be the focus of so many members as EML started to become at one point early on.

DJIM #14 2007

Looking at the past week, we sure had a lot of turbulence news wise yet whole lot of nothing from this market.    Being a trader in this market environment, we have to accept what's happening out there and constantly adjust our game plan in order to cope with what's working.   Basically, it was a grind out there and whole lot of time was spent on watching things that may not develop.   Well, this is one part of the trading world that we have to accept and we just have to deal with it to the best of our ability.    Because our trading methodology is very short term and most of our plays don't last longer than a couple of days or weeks, we always tend to assess the situation bear in mind our trading time frame.    One good thing is that last week is in the book and we are setting our eyes on a fresh week.   We are also getting closer to te earning season.    While a few little biotechs dominated the stories last week, we still had a few DJIM type of stocks making some nice moves.

MFW, this is probably the result of a long base forming action.  This one held up reasonably well during the correction and it caught our eye earlier this week on a breakout setup.   It did not disappoint and closed the week near another 52 week high.   We are definitely keeping this one on top of our trading list for the next little while.

CYNO, despite the minor pullback on Friday, we think this one is still very much in play.   The 9 ema is catching up which should provide support for this one to gain some footing for possibly another assault higher. We will look to play again. For those new to DJIM, this stock was an alert before being added to IBD back on Feb 15- CYNO, "Accumulating some of this one. Reported recently. Like chart, IBD #'s and float. Low 23's"..Posted on Thursday, February 15, 2007 at 01:49PM

JSDA, so Cramer jumped on this bandwagon and we are definitely putting this one on top of the trading play list at least the next couple of days.   Despite how much you like or dislike this TV guru, we think he can bring enough exposure to this stock for us to get a couple of "easy" tradable opportunities. Also, it was one of the biggest decliners in IBD last week, so look for some support.

TGX MTOX,  A couple of the best performers Friday are past DJIM EPS stocks . Some of you have definitely kept a closer eye on these two than us.    Given all the biotechs news we had last week, it's understandable that these small medial equip. co. can also be put in play.   We've always been partial to this sector and many of our past winners have come from this sector.    Yes, these ones are back onto the top of our trading list. This recent IBD addition has a column on it in weekends edition. As you know we are not shy about buying moves already made.

TGX was a earning play just below $4 in Alerts on Jan 30. here is a refresher on it...Briefingcom- After being a momentum stock in the late 90's, Theragenics fell sharply a few years ago and went through a restructuring and fell off the radar. However, the stock is showing signs of life again and could be making a comeback. Yesterday, the stock traded to a multi-year high following a strong Q4 report. Sometimes a big qtr can put a little company on the map for a sustained move. The co is a medical device maker and it's the brachytherapy segment that is the driver here: its TheraSeed device is used to treat prostate cancer without the drawbacks of surgery. Brachytherapy with the TheraSeed device involves a simple 45-minute, one-time procedure. Typically, a patient receives local anesthesia and does not feel anything below the waist. The physician then inserts thin, hollow needles into the prostate gland and deposits about 75-150 tiny seeds. Most patients leave the hospital within hours and resume routine activities in 2-3 days. During the next few months, the radioactive ingredient, palladium-103 (Pd-103), fights cancer from inside the body. The co says its treatment produces results better or equal to surgery... TGX's Q4 results were impressive with revenue rising 30% yr/yr to $14.8 mln and EPS of $0.05, ex-items, vs a loss a year ago. The co has now delivered four consecutive profitable quarters for the first time since 2002. The co also says it benefits from an important federal health law signed last month which protects reimbursement rates for seeds... Bottom line, TGX moved up on this report, but it still has a market cap of just $143 mln. A strong qtr can put a little known stock on the map, so it's a name to watch as it attempts a comeback. Mkt cap

WBD, we added a small piece on Friday after noting it on Thursday following earning. WBD was an original buy on DJIM back in mid '60. What a nice hold it would have been to today. We are looking to add if this trend continues, we would be sellers not much lower than our pick up in the 79's.

Solars, crude oil definitely stole the spotlight last week.   One would think solar plays would catch some fire as well.  Well, we think it's just a matter of time.   Now we just wait.    The point is, we just can not afford NOT to keep a close eye on these solars.

Let`s get earning season into gear.......

Plenty of nice money making  EPS plays started here last Q including USAP CCF VTRU VARI MTRX SYNL EML HDNG CYNO TRT..again HURC  micro caps TRCR TGX NWK AVZA CSV

Note: We will not be processing renewals or re-activating turned off accounts for those who (signed up Jan 3 or before) during trading hours.

Spotlight on Solars...

Some of us really wished that the trading day would last just a little big longer today.     Some of us really wished that we would repeat the same day tomorrow.   Some of us really wished that we could've started the day over so we could've better prepared for today's action.   In any case, today's undeniably a great day for the all who have been following today's winners here.   It just felt like payday, a culmination to a few highlighted DJIM stocks.     We definitely agree today was spectacular and did what we could to preserve the outcome.    Here are some of the plays today...

TSL, solar stocks stole the show today and we think this one is by far the best deal momentum wise.   Today's rise may not truly justify its presence since the break out started essentially 23 pts ago.    The question now is how high this one will go and we'll just have to monitor this one closely and with some care.

JASO, the only regret we had on this one is that maybe we should've played it aggressively and from the get go last Thursday.   But that's in the past and we just have to look at what's in store for tomorrow.   This one had a pretty big 3 day run-up which we think is not sustainable and a pullback could be imminent.   The only saving grace is that if the whole group gets some crazy momentum again, then the pullback may not come right away.  If a stock doesn't get a pullback, all you could do is go with the momentum, especially if a whole sector is running as was the case early and often today.

FSLR, in terms of percentage, this one lagged behind the others.  Funny to say when a stock finishes 6% up.  Nonetheless, this one pulled a NCH(new closing high) and we are expecting some follow through for tomorrow.

SOLF, lastly, put this one on the list too even though this is nothing more than a sympathy play. Glad to see this one pop for a few of our readers who have kept up on it.

JSDA, we were actually a little worried about this one's action today as it seemed a little climatic, or toppy as some would call it.   We are not saying that this one is done by a long shot, merely suggesting that a pullback is desperately needed.   We think that odds favours a pullback here so we let go most of our shares.    This one is heavily shorted so we think any pullback will be violent but short lived.  Of course, we are using the chart to determine the outcome as it rolls along.

URZ UXG, we took some off the table but added some URZ later on today.  Many are trying to call a top to this Uranium bubble.  We'll keep blowing air into for now.

SILC, we added some today to our buy in late last week. A NCH here

A few more to keep on top your play/watch list tomorrow...

EML, we put this back on watch a weekend ago because of the potential DOD contracts in '07 going to Armor Holdings.  Today, it closed with a NCH and got a little volume.

CYNO, pulled off a NCH, lets see if it holds here before adding.

RCCC FCSX, both of these we added to our watchlist today and are eyeing for a pullback for an entry.   These are earning plays that have had a great reaction.  With the big winners the past few days, a few earning stocks haven't got the attention from us that they deserved.

Spotlight on Solars, Part II

Climatic, climatic and climatic!   This is how we described action with TSL, JSDA and JASO toward the end yesterday.    Looking back, we felt that it was definitely a right thing to sell/ blow out our positions into the strength and leaving home with little to no position yesterday.    Was today's early downgrade merely a coincidence or was today's decline inevitable?   Whatever the conclusion anyone can come up with, we think odds did favour a pullback based on yesterday's action.    Momentum stocks tend to move up in a violent fashion and they can come down just as violently.    As traders who trade a lot of this kind of stocks, we have to respect the beasts' potential and act accordingly.  

For us, in case those are not familiar with our style.    We sell momentum stocks aggressively when they reach a climatic phase in our view..   We also sell most if not all of our position if stocks breach 9 ema or in an attempt of doing so.   This is not be mistaken with stocks that climb 20% for us and then start fading.   We do not wait for these to come to 9ema, we leave with most of gains in tact.   Use CIMT as an example here.   A $3.70-80 buy in, climbing to 4.60-70's...we do not wait for it to come down and hit 9ema like yesterday.  Look at it this way, if a stock you bought at $38...it goes to $46-47.   Will you let it slide back to $ 41's?.   We hope not , so look at a cheapie stock the same way.   These are some automatic reflexes we preach as part of our trading discipline.   Trading is solely about preserving most of the gains out of a play while cutting the losses as early as possible.    We use a rather conservative approach when dealing with these super momo stocks.   Here is a rundown...

TSL JASO SOLF FSLR, so now the stocks have pulled back and what do we do now?    We'd be eyeing 9 ema for the support and to see if the pullback can stop there for a potential quick rebound.   Otherwise, we'd be eyeing yesterday's high as the potential b/o point for re-entry.    The one thing we don't want to do now is to enter a trade here, where they closed today.   This is what we feel is no man's land and it just offers nothing but uncertainty.

JSDA, this is the exact same situation as solars and to a more extreme degree.   We really wanted to see where this stock would settle once the volume settles down.   Again, going in and picking an artificial bottom may as well mean that you are treating this game like a craps table.  

RCCC, this one held up really well but we think better entry pts are still ahead of us.  Others behaving SYNL, MFW.  Eyeing GROW, TRT some.

All this can change as lots of market moving co's. are reporting tonight , so we'd see how the market is going to react to their earnings tomorrow.   Unless the momentum is clear within a particular sector, we'd do what we normally do and pick one earning play at a time and highlight only those that are worthy of DJIM.

DJIM #18 2007

NUMBERS, NUMBERS...there's the ECO. which include numbers of the crumbling USD, the poor GDP# number released Friday, the poor housing #'s and then there are the EPS numbers which are fueling the market with money that does not want to be left out of a bullish party.  Which numbers are we concerned about?.   The answer is easy as hot money keeps flooding the market, everyone is chasing the EPS numbers of the giants and now the more speculative, smaller caps instead of worrying about all the eco numbers and what they could be pointing to.  If we had millions, billions maybe we'd be concerned about what the eco numbers are pointing to and that includes slower growth/EPS numbers in Q2 and beyond, instead our goal as always is to capitalize on what we are given today, tomorrow and taking advantage of it fully. Go hard or go home is the premise here recently. You will not need to go hard or stress later in the year, instead you might go on a extended vacation if you are capitalizing on this bull run we are experiencing.  Simply, companies which are producing results, giving a good outlook are being rewarded big time. We can't ask for anything more as this is DJIM's niche!...So enough of the banter, lets get the nitty and gritty and that is the stocks we have our eyes and hands on..

IDSA, we discussed the possibilities of this beast Wednesday night and Thursday we all had a chance to accumulate in the $12's. We are patient and wanted IDSA to maintain some integrity by not finishing the day over $15 and then be prone to a sell off Monday if it was included in IBD so soon.  When we started buying Thursday, all we had hoped for was a decent finish in the $14's come Friday.  IDSA did turn out to be fun, even if an hour or two before we thought on Friday and made a couple of tries at and over $15.  We anticipated a roadblock of sorts at 15, it wasn't major but you have to understand many were happy to get out here knowing many are anticipating this level.  We did some selling in this area as well, 20%+ in a few days was sufficient for now.  Don't forget many got in even lower Wednesday on the results and were willing to sell around $15 for even larger gains.  We are glad to buy any dips and now look forward to IDSA having 5 full days of trading to rock $15 and beyond. The best it could have done Friday was finish in the $15's, but with a week to do some damage we think it has a better chance to go into the high teens in a somewhat orderly manner.

TO, easy symbol, brutal name Tech/ Ops Sevcon..hey but with a 2.2mln float and nice earning you could call yourself whatever you want!. This one has a string of EPS somewhat similar to TRCR with the last being in the mid-to high teens.  It also just put in it's first 10 mln revenue Q like TRCR. There is also 15% institution ownership with a few names we are familiar amongst the holders. This gives this unknown company some respectability. We feel with fast money back in the market chasing an IDSA or two, a play like TO should get some interest in the week ahead. You don't if you don't try!

CMI, guess we'll look at this again but after giving a ride from low $90's to $107 off the opening bell, you'd have to think you are not going to match that any time soon.  So why bother going back right away!. The co' beat expectations and gave a rosy outlook.  That was the spark to ignite what we thought would be a nice short covering in the morning.  As we noted in the forum that morning...more goes into finding a play than the headline numbers in many cases.  It would be too easy if all companies with excellent numbers did the same thing.  CMI had a big run recently due to M&A rumors, these rumors evaporate most of the time and this idea brings in shorts expecting the stock to come back to reality.   Nothing like a kick ass report to get them covering in a hurry.  This was the idea behind the trade for a early morning move.  Anyways this was exciting and you could put this one with the MFW's huge day recently when we gave out a play with something like 20-40k volume before it exploded to record volume and big quick gains.  If you're not pocketing these types of gifts and moving on or recognizing them as an opportunity to jump in as soon as huge momo comes in.... something is wrong.  Also, if you're still scared to buy expensive stocks get over it.  These expensive stocks present incredible opportunities.

VSEA, a semi beat by 3c and guided higher. Not big fans of Semis here for the longest time, but with market the way it is we need to diversify some and see what the bigger names are capable of.  Besides, this one was a nice chart heading into earnings and this weekend moved to #4 on IBD. A few firms already reit it a buy and boosted price tgts.. We bot late, low 69's.

MFW, a familiar name we bot back Friday. It kinda pissed as off as we only had a few shares and were ready to add for days $60-62 and now had to deal with a sipke at the open to as high as $68.  Well..at least we know the Perelman money was smarter than us by picking up $12mln at $60. We like this kind of news and bot mid day off the pullback.

TRCR , quite the nice run in 4 days. We said we'd be looking to sell some if it reached the 14 area. Friday it was 3 plus points over our alert on it and we booked some profits into the weekend.  Nothing wrong here, just the right thing to do. We'll be back.

SYNL ,what can we say about the last 6 trading days, except its a pretty thing. We're all probably enjoying this move.

DXPE, was a casualty Friday but you don't need to be one.  Past knowledge of DXPE volatility puts this move into perspective. It's nothing but profit taking off a 8 point move. One way you might avoid more damage than you need to is set a mental stop in the area of the previous days long stick around that days low and or open. This is not a hard rule but if you had this point in your head it might have saved you a few points Friday. For us as full time traders it is of course easier to exit, if you can't deal with these types moves it is best you stay away...or you just accept them if you like the story and stick with it through the bumps in the road.

A few names for the pillow are acting well, past and present....VE hit 83, HTC near $24, CPY exploded Friday to 60's. These stocks have never seen RED, as in lower than our initial DJIM buy in's ( VE-$68,HTC-$17, CPY-$43) besides returning 20%-40% profits in months.   You can't beat that for a safe crawler. We try to give a bit of everything to satisfy all tastes.

One discussed in the forum early this week kept going creeping up and that is TWIN. ...... Remember SYNL EML were these pillow stocks when first intro'd here.  We can't discuss these much as they trade so thinly day after day, but for those of you with a longer term view on some of your positions these have been or are great stocks so far for under the pillow. An extra screener for these types is best to keep track and visit.  ABM, has pulled off a NCH and a nice weekly chart as well.