DJIM #8 2007

Three days off from the markets almost makes you forget what a happy little place you were at!.  That is until you look at your trading account gain over the previous weeks or the charts of DJIM's closely followed that we/you own to put yourself in that happy space again.   You see there is no excuse to be stuck in the mud after the last 5-6..trading days.  Opportunities have been a plenty and the market has been with you.  If you are not ahead in the game, you are not taking advantage of what DJIM provides for the day tripper or for the investor.  What opportunities?.  Well..lets go to the alert-forum pages and see what was there.  A week ago Friday, there was...

CSV at the open and $5.50, we said to look for confirmation at $6 for interest....it was there and it has touched $6.80...

ONXX buy in premkt on forum when the phase 3 was released just below $20 and now it sits just off $28.

The same day we mentioned the stellar earnings of BW around $41 and the buy of a starter that night, it has traded to $46 since.  Then there was the sooo timely mid week note on TRT lagging the field when it shouldn't have and the kick ass move to nearly $16 in less than 2 hrs on rally day.  This is one example of not chasing the 30% gap on earnings and instead waiting for another entry.   If that wasn't enough, we introduced CYNO low $23's...now almost 10% higher and IBD #28 by the weekend.   Friday's seem to be made for small cap earning and last week didn't disappoint as HURC released their earning.  We alerted we'd be buying early and another 10% was available after the gap open as the stock ran from $39's to $44. If we started the day on a good note, we might as well end it on a good note.  KRSL on the reversal and an alert just under $18 for a potential kick come Tuesday was the trader alert.  Well, it looks like it came in the last 20min and AH's.  Again, this is an example of not chasing if you miss a early entry off earning on a small cap/float stock and instead waiting for the next entry a few days later.  Last ...we checked this was trading over $20 AH's on Friday.  So, this was just the new plays last week, we can't forget the steady climbs on most DJIM's holds to new highs all week.   The long term holders should be happy with DJIM steel, aluminum, lodging, Internet plays...USAP CENX OEH VTRU and even our Euro play in VE, now from low $68's to $74.  Hey even a licorice/banking stock in MFW.   There is a mix on DJIM for any type of trader/investor.  You're not expected to catch all of these plays from last week as there are many factors involved, including size of account...but you should be sticking a few of these trades hard last week.  This is NOT about selling you that DJIM works, you are already here and so the only purpose of regurgitating last week is for ' hopefully ' not many of you to see the potential you are maybe missing and figure out why!!.  We simply want everyone to enjoy the same success.   So,  if you were not in a happy place late last week,  it's time to re- evaluate your strategy as we said last weekend and send us your recent trades and confess to your bad habits.   A very few have done so and hopefully last week they exercised what we discussed and profited.  Count how many of these DJIM plays mentioned today you hold this weekend or traded last week,  this could be a simple test to know why you are not ahead of the game.

HURC, this opened nicely with not a lot of fanfare as the volume indicated. This provided some early entries at a decent and not runaway price.  Soon you saw the potential in how fast this stock can move.  We touched on what we like about HURC in alerts. There is nice growth of 14mln yoy in revenue plus over 2mln in net.  The estimates were beaten and sequentially there was some growth which we like to see.  Considering 2006/2005 yoy Q was flat last year, this is impressive considering they did .84 v.48c.  Seems like they are back on track with operations in China to take hold in 2007.

KRSL, seems every Q we go through the KRSL hype off earning and most of the time it does not last.  The 775K float is always advertised as the the holy grail on this stock.  You see it has been beating YOY numbers Q over Q for the longest time and the same story starts.  This time many will put their EFUT in their mouth and say this will become such...Hey,  weren't they just saying that with FFHL and the happy smiley price targets on it.   Simply, the numbers are good but there is nothing tremendous about them.  But that is not the point here,  it is only about how much the traders want to play and drive something higher.  It depends on the mood and right now its seems to be craving a runaway, just a feelin'.  The volume the first day makes us think this might have a longer life span this time around.  This is for traders unless you want to take a $2 dollar lotto ticket on it.  You can see the drop to 15's and the pop to 20's as to the volatility.  Anyways, we got our trading boots on with this one and will trade accordingly.

With over 90% of the SPX probably reporting already, you might think it's the end of earning season.  In reality, this is when the small / micro caps quietly start sneaking in with reports, so this hardly the time to get complacent and tie up cash in laggards.  It is always good to have cash ready and not be anything close to 100% invested as you don't want to be selling something in order to get at another.  First, you will never get the price you dreamed of for the one you've been holding and by selling you won't be getting the new buy at the price you wanted if it runs quickly anyway.   Still, this has been a very productive earning season so far as we conclude week #8 of DJIM weekend updates.    To name a few nice ones from this Q, we need to start with USAP as the big winner from $36's.  CCF VARI VTRU ENR AVZA MTRX, a few quick 20% runs in the cheapies like TGX TRCR and some that are fresh like SYNL CGX  CYNO etc. that we are looking and hoping for more out of.  The charts paint a good picture of the recent DJIM closely followed,  nothing we can really add than what you see from last weeks Journal, Alert follow ups and Forum notes.

Happy trading and a Happy Chinese New Year to our DJIM friends...

Year of the Pig!

We are definitely enjoying this first trading day of the Pig year.    Of course, the word Pig in Chinese is usually associated with prosperity as opposed to our association of greed.    But today, we are just enjoying being a pig, in either association. lol      Action is pretty broad across the DJIM land and many stocks gained momentum as the index crossed into the green territory.      Here are some highlights...

KRSL, we highlighted this one late Friday and suggested a possible gap up today.   Well we got a gap up and the stock spent plenty of time above $22 today.   That's almost five point play from where we alerted.    We aren't being greedy here and sold most of the trading positions and left with a small trading position.   If this thing gets further momentum tomorrow, we'll definitely chase it but with a controlled pace.  The play as noted was to take advantage of a potential gap we thought we could already see in the $17's Friday being formed....How?...big fat crystal ball!..lol...okay more like a gut of experience.  We did give out the same trade in EFUT, FFHL for gap po'!.  Sometimes its not the length of stay but what you get of it.  If you can get 3-5 pts in 1 day of trading, you're not going to risk it the next day(s).

KBW, we were also surprised by its earning and thought it just seemed to good to be true.   This financial company IPO'ed not too long ago and currently have 4 analysts rate it as a hold with low estimate going forward.   This in our opinion will sure change as analysts will have to raise their estimate based on its report today.   The stock also has a very small float and financial stock in this market cap range always look attractive to us.   We are gonna be trading this one higher.

HURC SYNL CGX BW TRT,  all these recent earnings play have enjoyed some nice follow through and made new closing highs.  FSLR FCN are two more we are trading but have run out of space to discuss lately.

EDU, this familiar one which priced its secondary has broken out today on pretty good volume.    We chased some and are keeping a close eye on any further strength.  If this wasn't enough, recent Russian DJIM stocks made NCH's VIP MBT and GLDN is right there.  This is why we started a hit/hold list so your list starts to resemble ours and we all recycle when the time is right.   At this point the lineup at DJIM closely followed is a World Series lineup and there is just no reason to alert/ forum recent DJIM plays like these.  Hopefully you've listed them to trade or still have them in your books as holds. 

ONXX MFW USAP CSV SNCR, these familiar DJIM stocks all have enjoyed some nice gains and we added appropriately with some of them.

The bottom line is, if any stock did not go up in the DJIM land, then it's really considered as a laggard and we are better off just cutting them lose.   Today was not the day to play a 9ema level bounce. When the market is this rosy and most things seem to work, the trading strategy should be focused on "making most bang out of a buck" and we gotta hammer those stocks with the highest momentum.     We are looking forward to trading tomorrow.    A nice reversal of 35pts on the Nasdaq today and the close over 2500.  Now, let's just stick it!

DJIM #9 2007

What was a 4 day shortened week felt anything but as trading seemed to have come to a stall by weeks close.  The week definitely got started on a bang but by weeks end the buyers seemed exhausted and/or just not interested.   So what do you do?.   Well, if you can't buy anything with potential it gives you time to evaluate your holds and maybe sell some into the 'Green'.  It is not the time to get nutty and turn away from what has been working by chasing something just to make a trade.  It is always better to draw down you positions into the green then having to hastily sell if this lacklustre tone continues and we really have an exhaustion day when the selling hits hard.   What the week provided was for some orderly profit taking and by looking at performance of some DJIM's closely followed in the past 5 trading days, so it was not such bad thing or idea to scale down or add to a strong one or two like CSV.

KRSL 28% SYNL 13%  ONXX 12.1  CSV 8.7  TRT 7.3  BW 6.5  CGX 5.9  USAP 4.0 CCOI 4.2 OEH 3.4 GLDN 3.1..and HURC at its highs was up 15% since alert buy in.  Taking into consideration the last few days, these returns at the end of 5 days of trading is nothing to sneeze at.   The week was not all pairing down positions,  there was some buying and adding to these percentage gains in the likes of KBW and to a lesser extend HDNG.   The only one that got away was CYNO, it looks the Directors got a hold of the hacked version IBD too and decided to sell in bunches this week.   Actually this looks like planned selling again and it has never stopped CYNO before from moving upwards, so we expect this to be a hiccup as well.  You could plug your nose and hold your breath till it goes away or you could just sell when a stock is feeling pressure such as this.  We prefer to sell and not feel the pressure possibly take down a stock of ours.  The stocks above are the primary hit/ hold list for DJIM, we might have reduced exposure in some like BW after a big run but these are also the first we'd be looking to throw money back at in the upcoming trading week.

What probably got us through the week was the continuation of the solar plays. Right now, JASO FSLR TSL are providing more than ample opportunity to swing a trade. The good thing is seemingly there is always one moving, so at this point we are hitching a ride here and there and not asking for names.  VTRU VARI , we are waiting on patiently to make a drive for new highs and jump in with some enthusiasm.  The problem is the techs just don't want to lead this NASD to higher ground. 

So...despite the selling in most sectors for 3 out of the 4 days, the NASD and Russell finshed the week up about 1 %.  The Bull/ Bear fight in full force, except the fighting ain't that strong in either direction.  Hope this week is a little more interesting and some conviction comes back.  In the meantime, DJIM will be stay in its own ring and will be after new earning stocks to punch out some profits with. 

Dow 13K?

Who really cares?   However, the CNBC show has to go on and "intelligent" topic has to be discussed in order to attract viewership.   In all honesty, those who trade stocks for a living don't really have much of a choice but having this CNBC on in case we miss some important headline.   Ok, enough rant here!      Market has once gain showed its inability to march forward and much of the action came from the smallcap land.  With a 91bln bank deal overseas leading the usual Monday activity, we expected more follow through today.  This is a little bit early to talk about but we are about a few weeks away when the seasonality factor kicks in.    Sell in May and go Away!    Ok, so for those members who have billions of dollars at stake, don't blame us that we didn't warn you.  lol   For the rest of us, life goes on and we will adjust to whatever the market environment when changes happen.  There are a few interesting setups today and we are going to go through each one of them....

KRSL,  this one gave us a very profitable trade a couple of months ago and we never take it off our watchlist.  It merely sits in the back of the class until it decides to stand up one day ann makes itself  noticed.    We noticed it earlier today off the news that the co. received a contract(MOU) from UTX.   This is essentially the first good news we've heard from the co. since it reported its last earning.    We'll take it.  It's good to know they will continue to be busy going forward.  The reasons for a move has been summed up in the alert, so we are not going to repeat here.   One thing we have to point out that this one trades very thinly and it can go up as quickly as it can go down.    We got in the $23s and will act accordingly.    Chasing blindly without a plan is definitely not a good idea with a stock like this one.

TRCR, this one reported earning after the close and essentially this is the best quarter for this co.   It beat year over year, also up nicely sequentially.   This one has had pretty steady action since the last report so there's a good chance that it will continue the same pattern.   Although there's no exact telling how the stock will behave tomorrow but based on the AH action, making a new high is not out of the cards for this one soon.  We might actually keep an ear on the CC late morning, or will just watch the action at that time to possibly make another move. 

SILC,  we are going to monitor this one really closely tomorrow because there's potentially a chance for this one to break out.    We believe this is also due to the pre-earning run and eps date is 25th of this month.  Hey, we got one from DXPE Friday and today from USAP, so why not the SILC'ster!

There have been quite a few names that made some nice moves today..SYNL MTOX CYNO USAP. A few of them are the quiet types which include TNH GLDN SCHN GMRK ROS.  We are glad that there's enough action out there despite the weakness from the major indices.

...lets's see what the chips can bring tomorrow off a couple of good reports AH

Shakedown..

'Breakdown....Takedown....Everybody wants into the crowded line... Breakdown....Takedown...You're busted...Let down..your guard..blah blah ..you're busted!".  Yeah, we're humming a guys tune who probably already had a beard when we born!.... but hey, what's the ruckus today?..We still in the loop.  Cheer up, it's not the end of the world!.   You know what was looking like the end of the world?....

The market being up something like 24 of 28 days!!.   What percentage is that?.   Sure , ain't Shaq's free throw percentage!.  The point is simple, what the "Disney" did you expect to happen sooner than later as we ran the market higher and higher.  Today should not be a shock to any of us. If you've ridden the DJIM plays recently, you are probably safely out by today anyway on most positions with nice gains..   But seriously, if the market shakedown scared you today, you still had a perfect storm to exit with gains in tow today.   Why...you say?

Let's see DOW down 147, NASDAQ down 43.   What really stunk the DJIM joint out?    Well, percentage wise it was NGA!.    But, we've all expected and actually welcomed a decent fall after this 40% run with DJIM hands all over it..   This was going to happen, no matter if the market got smacked or not today.   NGA was prime for it.   Besides the NGA bit,   there was not much damage to anything you might be holding off DJIM. You still could walk away today all in one piece if that's your choice.

FWLT  TNH  SPAN  CPY  FTK  IDSA  FSLR  KRSL  ADPI  are some recent DJIM names traded that managed to post green end of day.  Tomorrow..all these can get the smackdown and other barely reds like TRCR  LXU  MA  HAYN  NTLS (1% or lower) might as well.    What you had today is exit opportunities to leave with almost all of your recent gains in these names.   The next day you might not!.     Be it tomorrow or any other time in the market, if you survive one day...you might not the next if the slide continues.    What we hate is to be part of any domino effect, so today we did some selling into this orderly action of our closely followed/held stocks.  We don't want to blow the past months of good work out the window.   Safe than sorry heading into a weekend at this point.   Still...there was no action in any DJIM recent play that money screamed get me out of here...fast! .  We like the group we are covering at this time and will monitor closely as always.

As full time traders, we look to end of day for some fire sales on our favorite winners lately.  We've talked about buying a pullback for days on NGA...last night the last.    What we said today in the forum as it traded $13.80-14.00 from it's highs, is the market conditions today basically stamped out a chance for a orderly pullback and buy possibility that we expected from it before weeks close.   If the market (NASD) is down 20 points,  we do not know if panic will set in on any individual stock and take it down further.   We can't buy such a fresh pullback as NGA hung around $14 at 2pm!.   As a trader member pointed out minutes later, "would rather buy a pullback within the context of a stronger market day... Opportunities are made up easier than losses.".    Minutes later NGA crumbled to 13.20.   So how do you know when a pullback is sufficient?...is it the one down to $13-8-14.00 or will there be another as later today to 13.20?....We simply don't know and we're not going to guess at $14 with a falling market.    Basically, why play with fire as the market starts to crisp and burn.   Simply, we wait till end of day to decide if we want any.   We do it with strong stocks to buy in or add more and this is still the way we go if considering to recycle a recent big winner on a dip.   End of day.    Yes, we picked up small amounts of LXU, NGA  end of day.  This is nothing in size to when we were playing these recently.  We all should have enjoyed these 2 runs, we are not blowing it away with a substantial position now on a dip in a falling market today.    If any sign of momentum comes Friday in NGA, we'll be there in sizes again.    Call it another starter to monitor today, that's all!.   Still, the issue with NGA should not be if it catches a pullback and heads to $15 tomorrow.  What's 13s-low 14's to 15's at this point when the play has been here since a premkt alert at 9+ and soon after buy in low $10's. If you won big from low 10's already, what's the rush now?. Let it sink in and let it show a definite change in trend.  Is this a possible secondary leg coming up?.   Was this the retracement we were waiting for?.   We'll know soon enough (Friday).  We just went through IDSA remember, so you know what can happen.  What it might do at /if $15+ is a whole new different leg and we'll decide then how to approach it.

For those new here, our Aert-Comments are either our buy-ins or leads we are considering for a buy.  Today was a nice combo to an alert from Monday on FRPT to go with our buy in alert on SPAR today.  Both had stellar days in a bad market and were involved in the same contract.  Yeah looks like Cramer gave a hand to our pick ups again today.   We were oblivious to who or what or why...we just saw momentum happen at different times today for these names.  The idea was here Monday following the Armor Holding M&A activity for a look at  FRPT with its chart, today it paid off as FRPT and the company making the chassis (SPAR) for it all won. SPAR last trades at 31.60-32 AH.