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Entries in FTNT (5)

Thursday
Jan062011

Expectations rising...

Coming off an overnight low of 1255 ES,  ‘dip buyers’ came in for an impressive ~20pt reversal as investor sentiment was bolstered once again by ‘stronger than consensus’  eco’ data, notably ‘jobs’, ADP numbers on the heels of initial claims last week.  Higher revisions to GDP likely once again..  In all, as concluded yesterday… "..any further broad market hiccup would be buying situations".

Wary- Never hurts for watchful prudence in the markets, even when all is seemingly hunky -dory. Heightened expectations for NFP # now, consensus moving up to approx.. 200+.  If it doesn’t come in 200+K, markets holiday party might be curbed.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  the star of the day goes to recent list add, BSFT +14%  as it fed of all things 4G related coming out of 'CES Vegas’.   This one is ‘nutcase’, so it’s all about entry timing. (eg.9ema).  Newsflow is driving the group as a noted possibity to start the week…QCOM/ATHR marriage, RIMM pushing higher on Playbook unveilings.  Small caps-Software/networking stocks act very all. (APKT CRM FTNT ).   Addition to list: CAVM, this one could have been added easily last year, but there were enough names to trade.
  • Commodities -  Nothing new to add here. Even with a precious metals, some base metals in a higher USD environment the Ag’s-Coals outperforming.  LNN,, pushed higher early ~4% to recent gap before fading some.
  • Consumer -  Retail numbers in focus Thursday, hopefully wakes up group for some trading oppy. 
  • Financials - streak continues after a day off (BKX >3% YTD)
Friday
Apr292011

..may they all be like CRR, FTNT,SFLY,N!

A day of digestion as the market rests on support provided by a ‘positive’ earnings season and a FED that gives and gives.  Most of the incremental gains for the market today are due to managers going after the lagging groups  as is always the case.  Thus, leading sectors in the market today are the Black Sheep groups, while the Nasdaq lags.   This also relates to a note a few days ago…”.bring inflows from the sidelines due to technical (indicies potential breakout)..” . Combined, it is all ‘PA’, performance anxiety into month end.  If the breakout the other day isn’t enough, today the TRANS were making fresh highs, which garners support from the Dow Theory cult. 

Another quiet day tomorrow likely, next week as discussed we will find how long the market can rest on it’s laurels. (earnings / FED).  There is no sign of shorts in the market and it’s hard for the market to go much higher without them being around to get squeezed.  The market would need a lot of money to come in the market to offset their absence.  Maybe, eco data will wake them up next week and/or wake up complacent longs.  Recall, what we said about April PMI's (tagged) showing what March PMI's didn't ( post Japan/Crude price escalation). 

Considering, DJIM has always been an earnings/small cap orientated place,  we still have something to look for as R2K earnings take over from the mega caps.  If today is any indication from Shadowlist (tagged to locate) earning linked plays, we’ll have something to look forward to and initiate new stocks. CRR, initiated last Q at $110, hit $169 today, SFLY, also last Q addition at $40 to $67 today and FTNT  from August at $18 to $48.  All were  >15% pops today off another round of excellent earnings. Makes you wish you were just a buy and hold investor....

Monday
Jun272011

DJIM #26  2011

It’s a pretty sad market state when the Q-end/month end/into a holiday weekend factor is about all ‘longs only’ have going for themselves heading into the week of June 27th.  On Friday, once again the market came up against, “Now the Hard part” premised during the week of not being able to hold gains as “austerity’ news’ was shrugged off as should have been done the previous day.  Any rally is a sell into strength and dip buying is elusive with only 200ma bringing out a few souls nibbling.

Now with a close below 1280 the Bulls have lost the agenda once more with an inevitable short term visit of Fukishma lows and likely new lows in the cards.  It may not happen this Q end week( if Greece does not provide any more shocks), but eventually it’s a summer necessity as lower prices may only change the dynamics of the present underlying market where buyers are non-existent.  

All in, a few positives from last week.  May Q end earnings had been quite robust early in the week (FDX,BBBY), but a few blow ups from US tech Thursday night and some European blow ups have turned the tide some making for a murky picture ahead.  This is not giving any clarity overall into what we’ll see from June end earnings which only start mid–July.   PMI flash numbers from China and Europe point to weak numbers for Global July 1 official announcements, but markets held up showing market expectations are likely baked in and it’s looking forward to the July numbers in August already.  The performance of Asian markets was the biggest positive, notably China as a soft landing was likely orchestrated.  Crude capping intervention was something we alluded to in DJIM#24 as a positive if it came and still see it that way now that it’s here for the markets as it will give some relief to the consumer. Just call it another stimulus. Now give us a tax repatriation holiday for some real ‘stocks’ stimulus!.  Another positive was R2K outperformance and this shows up in a few DJIM’s flirting with fresh highs, FTNT  QLIK  MSTR , including some of our consumer linked names noted last week.  Unfortunately, all of this is in the backseat, if not the trunk, as long as Greece (2 votes this week) and potential fallout is in the mix.

Wednesday
Jul202011

'Hope' rally

As been repeated for weeks, the market is a headline watching match for the fast traders.  At least this time it favoured trading to upside on what was really ‘empty’ macro headlines with some micro page turning.

It all started with Europe in the morning with some finance ministers ‘opinions’ (nothing more) raising optimism towards an agreement at the summit (July 20-21).  This enthusiasm was surely to be curbed by Merkel’s comments at the US market open, but market stayed giddy with Housing sale # surprise . In the afternoon another upside leg ensued as “Gang of 6’ debt ceiling proposal made the rounds. Once again, empty headlines with nothing concrete and possibly just more proposals amounting to nothing as usual.  All in, market ran on Macro ‘hope’, but likely rekindled some on earnings follow through from IBM, WYNN last night into the morning with PII,HOGS (disc. spending),OMC,KO and Hermes in Europe. 

In all, nothing macro resolved, but market tested the important 1295 successfully and it coincided with a better earnings picture emerging pushing market back over 20ma benchmark.  It’s too early to draw conclusions on earnings and/or turning away from political ‘macro’, but a rally is a rally and we’ll take it. Another hope is that many were flat footed today and come out to chase despite uncertainty abound. Remember, first leg is always short covering, especially as seen in SOX components today after just hitting fresh lows.

Shadowlist

Consumer - As alerted in morning for TIF FOSL LULU UA  all NCH’s, Hermes earnings put bid on high end, Adidas comments and potential end to NFL strike helped out UA. 

Earnings Q3 linked-   WYNN  post earnings succumbed to profit taking in regular trading hours, but it’s not going off list and will be a buy again.  This sell off possibility was noted to watch following EDU.  PII  added late June at 109 before running 11% to $122, once again put in a very healthy Q   (SHS  ran up as high 23%. Since pulled back, so keep eye out for EPS date).  http://www.djimstocks.com/djim-journal-1h-2011/a-few-names-to-list-into-q3piishsplcm.html.

IBM big catalyst earnings put bid on Mega caps, but also software Shadowlisted CRM  MSTR  to NCHs.

AMC, FTNT, RVBD  demonstrated high beta stocks ran or are running into earnings calls and if expectations are not handily beaten, you’ll be slapped down.

Thursday
Dec222011

Ahead of the open, (22-12)

Leading into the trading week,

Earnings come from the softies’, ORCL RHT, TIBX. After all the negative announcements from the ‘hard’ware types, software is usually the ‘safe’ haven in tech, so these companies will be closely watched for tech contagion. If (ADBE) is any indication from last week, this group will provide relief”. 

Coming off a 3% melt up with all focus on ECB’s LTRO, holiday cheer was dampened as noted heading into today’s trade.. ...”Unfortunately, this last positive (LTRO) is out of the way now and euphoria should subside….. A rare miss from ORCL will be defended, but will have an impact as some factors mentioned by management will definitely effect other co's”. RHT, reported after ADBE earlier in the week and didn’t meet expectations setting up the table.

Considering ORCL has been a can’t miss earnings stock for years and with money loaded into the software space for anyone wanting tech in their books (especially post all negative guidance in hardware types recently), a volume tick up slaughter ensued in the sector with many linked stocks down ~10% in the first couple of hours with many of our favorite names over the past year(s)included.  (CVLT N FTNT VMW QLIK TLEO FFIV CRM CTXS BSFT even IBM ). Investors caught on by the opening bell and headed for the exits realizing ORCL’s call “will definitely effect other co’s”. Despite NASD shaving off ~25 pts by close as selling subsided by noon, this caught many of guard and the bounce is likely more of a function of selling stopping and quick traders going in than longs only stepping up.  Doubtful these kind of market revelations last for only 3 hours. AH’s, TIBX report was somewhat a relief, but isn’t a Goliath market cap like ORCL to change view overnight. Worry dust needs to settle here.

In all, the broad market was lopsided. As speculated, the euphoria of LTRO died off despite coming in at higher end of whispers numbers, but the market didn’t sell off (positive) and closed above 20ma/50ma, even as Euro sov’ yields went up (see ‘watch’ note yesterday). The debates on the LTRO started premarket and will linger on.

 In this view, just add it to the Eurozone band aid alphabet for now, EFSF,ESM,SMP and go on.