Your Personal Trader - DJIM Journal 2011

Heading into DJIM #15 week, it was noted the market didn’t really know what's going on the corporate front (earnings) from recent indicators (Japan impact/ some smaller co’s earnings/ data points).

A week later and disappointments from AA JPM GOOG BACK INFY , hardly resolved anything, although just looking back at those pretty big names covering a broad view of sectors, many are left scratching their heads as to how the market didn’t resolve itself more than .5% to the downside by week close. (Unfortunately, single stocks didn’t find ‘elusive bid’ to close above 1321 as per follow up Fri.morning comment).

Add, big Washington question marks (debt ceiling), Euro debt déjà vu and Bears must be thinking what's it going to take to get longs to sell holdings?. They already know their comrades are incapable of pressing as the market just tested a cluster of support this week and instead bounced. Also for good measure, let’s note the fact 4 of above corporations announced just in the last 24 trading hours and the market still managed to rally some ~12 SPX pts from overnight lows. Okay, let’s also add ‘safety' sectors outperforming and most likely go ‘Huh’?.

Is it just the same Bull market resiliency we’ve discussed for 2 years now or is this market just waiting to reach a crescendo of headwinds and buckle its knees in a late April correction (..As said last week, investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that”, early April. Also, recall, post- Japan/surging oil, Global ISM’s pleasantly held up, but it was noted here they could just be delayed and be terrible once April #’s released. Question is, what if they aren’t terrible?. What if Washington makes headway during it’s recess on debt ceiling legislation? (which it still can prior to May 1). What if earnings/outlooks start to come through as we hit the majority of SP500 co’s in the next 2 weeks?. Well, folks..'what if's' in this business is called “UPSIDE RISK”. Shorts fear it and the big money knows it can rally the market, so they wait on the sidelines for any of these potential catalytic events.

All in, murky broad market waters, but DJIM emphasis has always been on single stock selection linked to earnings and as we head into the eye of earnings season, we’ll concentrate on building on fresh and/or re- initiations of successful Q1 names off earnings and not worry so much about the big picture, ie, TDSC CRR IPGP MSTR WTW TBL / http://www.djimstocks.com/1st-q-2011/2011/4/5/djim-plays-1st-q-spx-1250-call-mcp-soda-tdsc-crr-ipgp-tbl-ms.html

..and others like, GTLS SXCI SFLY WFMI ININ OPNT KEYN (you can click highlighted symbol on site for charts)

NCH-new closing highs: WTW SFLY WYNN MCP SINA KEYN (Shadowlisted)