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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006-  Toronto, Canada/ London UK

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Entries in TDSC (5)


thank..Jennifer Hudson's waistline..

..for WTW and/ or my recent TBL' (Earthkeepers) purchase to get through another winter!

Coming into the week we noted ‘inflation’ would be the key ‘word’ and it has proven to be as all the market noise is related it.  Everything else, including Iranian boats and some overnight ECB buying (fat finger?), the market is turning a blind eye to as we see by recent trading day's 'green' closes.  Note, if Journals do not contain mentions of eg. boats, Middle east tensions or whatever heading into a trading day as every other media outlet,  it’s because we’ve turned a blind eye to it and are trading away the Shadowlist components.

A simple question now is does the US /global have an inflation problem?.  Okay, if so, why are the emerging markets on fire this week (>3%)?.   Sure, they’ve have beaten up so far in ‘11, but you can beat them up more on inflation fears!.   Yesterday, FOMC related forecasts didn’t change (positive)   So, this is the noise, the fear mongering, but what do you do as a trader?.  Consider this…What if inflation points ease down the road, you’ll beat yourself for not using your cash this EPS season!. That's as simple as it gets.  What we’ve been saying this Q (if not years now) is trade the earnings stories/ rotations and ignore almost everything else.   


  • Q4 Earnings update-  Look at today’s ~40% pops, WTW TDSC TLB, (picked TBL to alert today, but you can add all 3 to Shadowlist for now).  These are almost historical earning reaction gaps and incredibly there is more follow through intraday (see IPGP  comments recently).


  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ’10-   While some momo’10 names notably lag today in a melting up market (maybe something to monitor for broader mkt),  this year’s inclusions  to DJIM consisting of opticals/ EPS’/ new potential momo’s carry on.  NPTN, FN  alerted here at ~ $14/ $25, respectively are near highs of $21/$32.   When you catch momo, you really catch it!.  Buyers who missed the ride earlier got on board of NVDA (up >10% from red lows), despite many bearish analyst comments.   AZPN  got a $22 price tgt.

..Prove it

Following the early week slide, we noted…”Considering very good eco data is irrelevant as today showcased, anything more than a bounce into a probable good NFP# can’t be expected”.  Well, we might have to rethink the ‘irrelevant’ part following today’s ‘bounce’ right to this week’s highs,( if ) the whispers of 250k-300k jobs are hit or not!.  Will it bring conviction buying if hit or will we continue sideways trading going forward.  Guess we’ll see soon enough and so take it a step at a time.   Anyways as discussed yesterday again, a ‘bounce’ possibility existed thanks to the combination of a big sell off day w/ the chance crude would ease off following a big >2% day would generate optimism into the jobs #.  Truthfully, it might have generated a little too much optimism putting aside everything (crude >100, Libya, Saudi Arabia etc. ) for the day.


  • Q4 earnings update-  some of the best action was from this DJIM shadowlist sub group. TDSC >10%,OPNT >9%.  On the less volatile’safety’ side, SXCI, TBL  traded in NCH(new closing high) territory.
  • Consumer- life coming back here today and maybe a good sign forward…WYNN (nch) and FOSL,UA,TBL 4-5% higher.
  • Commodities –  many sources as per Briefingcom/CNBC all over ‘coal’ today. What took you so long?. CLF  tacked another ~4pts climbing back over $100. WLT,ANR  also put in ~4% days
  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ’10-   A few like RVBD  had decent gains, but overall still sloppy considering the huge rally as the NFLX,FFIV,CRM  hardly showed up.   Opticals were mixed, some like OPLK, FNSR, FN  performed ~4%.

..another pack 

It was a actually a good underlying tape to market naysayers as a few ‘defensive’ sectors led the market higher, but as far as DJIM’s underlying ‘Shadowlist’ tape, it was a second consecutive day of managers swallowing PA pills of mid/small caps as evident in the R2K's 2:1 outperformance of the major indicies. (*DJIM not liking SOX performance for a NAZ up >20pts intaday).  Yesterday’s winners rested and a fresh batch of DJIM plays took over. (see attachment on site). R2K is at 2007 levels. So all cool here today, but broad market is probably signalling a halt coming due to some internals today.

We entered the week in anticipation of …1) “…many are behind the ball on it (as in surprised).  This coming into a month end/Q end is where a PA pill (performance anxiety) will likely be swallowed by managers to play catch .. (many thought it was done with prior weeks gains because many times front running the final week occurs). 2) There’s a cluster of “R’ around 1313-1319, but once a close occurs over, the market will have higher sights in mind and it should happen this week. 3)  rally…”It could continue until Friday as investors/traders await all the data/QE2 for that day.”. 

Taking into account all 3 have taken place this week, today was another 11-12 SPX at day’s peak to March highs, so thoughts of continuation over new "R" into Friday morning is a little too much to imagine.  All in, the market has set itself up (disappointment?) Friday’s eco data, notably Global PMI’s and the effect all the Global macro issues (Libya-oil/ Japan) have had on the numbers.  The NFP# shouldn’t be as important, but if it surprises big to the upside it will likely be a negative for market as Fed comments have become more ‘ hawkish’, as some today.  Note, we are another “R” cluster to low 1330's-1335, still a break is clear sailing to years highs.


DJIM #14  2011

As cited Friday post Global PMI/ US NFP#, the market should have been relieved as numbers came out better than feared.  March PMI’s withstood the shock of all macro global issues and NFP# came in solid, but not a big beat to make the latest hawkish case stand up. (*see below for more on PMI's).  The Bears still had a few shots to disturb the day, but US ISM came in line and most importantly, Fed Dudley curbed a week’s worth of ‘hawkish’ (tightening) exuberance by keeping to the ‘big 3 ‘ doves mandate. (Bernanke Monday night speak to follow).   

DJIM expectation was..” All in, the market big $ longs and markets shorts are on hold. The data may do nothing to change.”.   Basically, the market sighed a relief and it moved past “R” from data, but the big $$  is still not convinced to chase this 6.5 % rally off SPX 1250 and closed back below “R” top/ SPX 1335.   Market wannabe participants, (this includes big money longs and shorts) who look at the market rally in disbelief will be left with little to go on this upcoming week prior to earnings season.  Why?.  Simply, we are into a very quiet US economic/ earnings calendar week as SPX nears it's highs for the year.   It looks like the market might experience 'technical difficulties’, as in a market driven by technical analysis as the SPX nears ‘ double top’ ..Bear lingo.(* R2K/DJIA are above it.)  That’s all great chatter and makes use for all the crayon chart drawings you see in the social media stock world, but once the day is done, shorts/Bears are unlikely to do much (conviction) before earnings get into gear and risk more upside from the market.   It won’t be a surprise to see pre-announcements this week, we’ve seen quite a few already.  It will be interesting to see market’s follow through reaction as they hit (how much already baked in?). 

In all, we could be stuck as both sides have little conviction, likely all newsflow will come from outside US markets (ECB upcoming hike, China possible hike).

*While PMI’s held up for March, it’s very possible that immediate impact is not yet showing and April reading's will deteriorate.  It’s a few weeks away, but if a sizable correction is to occur, it will begin prior to the releases later in the month of April.   Earnings will need to offset possible Macro (Japan,Oil) drags ahead for investors to find value in stocks.



Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   If you think window dressing front running doesn’t exist,  just look at a 5 day FFIV chart.  Isn’t it sweet when a house downgrades (FFIV) immediately after a 8-10pts ramp higher into Q end.  This goes back to what we were saying about possible jumping on these missing link laggards into Q end.

Just 24 hrs after a bottom seemed to be formed in the opticals, a mid cap (EXFO earnings) destroys all linked names like JDSU, FNSR.  It’s quiet silly/ridiculuos and shows why it’s a momo’ trade this year as 50mln to 500mln market caps are bringing havoc on 2-4 bln market caps.  This action wouldn’t happen in many other sectors in the marketplace and will eventually be in play again as network builds are not going away in US and China.

As as broad tech, the SOX ‘dislike’ underperformance noted here mid week extends, month end couldn’t do much for a bid into the consumer end tech hardware/semi linked plays.  This is where most pre- announcements will likely occur.

As far as Shadowlist components, Wednesday included a few select winners on site. A few continued to be stong to close off the week.  NPTN  surged to a peak of ~20% next day, TDSC, added 13%, MSTR,  tacked on 3% to 8-10% Wednesday's gains.  WTW,  another 6%/ 5pts. 

Commodities –  One sector that did have follow through on Friday as per note to watch was the Ferts/Ag’/,equp./chem.  As the coal trade here likely cools off shortly, we’d look for the ferts/ag’s/chem to trade post USDA numbers boosting corn prices. (Thurs.) 

Consumer-  the retail sec is not getting much market attention, but DJIM earnings related retail/ lux plays continue to make new highs during a big week/month.  SODA,+6%nch FOSL, TBL, WFMI, UA surged Friday.  RL next for highs?. See table on site attached.  Also, casino (WYNN LVS )  on watch again since last week had nice day as March Macau numbers were excellent, the comps were very hard to beat, but they did so in record fashion.




Shake, Rattle and Roll on..

Considering the market just rebounded from SPX1250 to nearly year’s highs after an Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear fears, you have to believe a 7pt something magnitude quake will only Shake, Rattle and Roll the market back to it's early morning fault line.   This morning’s slide was pure ES/ SPY stuff with little reaction on individual stocks.  Stocks that fell through the crack did so on small volume as bids naturally disappear and scary pants will sell at any level to exit.  As traders, we've lived through enough turbulent moments the last few year’s to know being spooked out of positions is no way to go.  As soon as rationale set in, the market rebounded and was back to the same trends expected here entering the week (waiting on earnings to kick off).  Give shorts some credit for not laying out some conviction by pressing the market off another quake headline.

All in, not a bad day considering Financials only traded inline / SOX succumbed to a little profit taking following Samsung’s report on NAND specifiaclly that hit semi-equip linked stocks, yet SPX posted only an incremental loss.


Financials  - Not the best day for rotation to exhibit itself due to newsflow. GS  edged over 50ma as sector heads into it’s earnings. Last few Q’s it’s moved into the reports.

Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  TDSC,KEYN, finally broke out to NCH

”..there is plenty of money to be taken from other sectors and so it may not last long in high beta momentum because earnings are around the corner. Still, it’s best to be prudent if trying to find a buy point as money comes out faster on the way down then up in this group”.  At least it was good see a few momo names snap back, SINA, SOHU.  MCP , did as well but it was purely on newsflow (congress bill)