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Entries in DRYS (28)



A day of rest it seems.  Not much conviction, a few flickers of green and then much ado about nothing
by the close as the Bulls got the sword in it's butt and backed off for the time being.  Sitting Bull.  At this point, we are not expecting new stocks to emerge as quickly. So, what we do is look to the stocks we have played or watchlisted this Q to see if these names have any potential if the melt up continues.  Preparation is best, trading stock for the sake of trading is not.   A little boredom might sink in, but sticking to your style..your niche is essential.  Easiest way to curb your need for a hit might be to look at your successful trades recently and see if what you are considering to trade has any of the characteristics of your winners.  Simply, we are not seeing a NGA, IDSA, LXU, CROX emerge. Still micro-small caps will still continue to expose themselves while you hear earning season is basically over now.  So what do we do?, well we back off and just bother each other over IM until a play comes along we like and fits DJIM.   So, considering we are not seeing anything new come that needs immediate's a few you have seen cross the DJIM wire recently that we are holding and/or adding to today.

TBSI, we like to nickname our stocks. Tipsy is fitting for TBSI in the first hour today. We thought we'd better get the barf bags out for the quesy ones as it slipped from a good open to low 20's. We knew of the shipping D-grade before the open on a few names but we did not think this would it would spread to the TBSI,DRYS and a few others BofA did not cover.  When the drop started, the first thing we looked for was how the sector names were performing.  Seeing a few names had rebounded already, we averaged down and took more TBSI on.  By the early afternoon, it was back grinding away at $21 and eod definitely had some steady buy interest.  If this this makes it to IBD this weekend, it will be a new name to many and will most likely have interest next week. This one is completely different than the IDSA inclusion type play goal of $15 where you expect to sell the following Monday on the exuberance follow through.  This a dry bulk shipper,  a hot sec with earnings numbers that will be revised after their report.  We mentioned DRYS and the sector back in April, few money players might be looking for a new name to grasp. We hope Tipsy could be it.

CROX,  This is as pure a earning play as you will ever get.  You can't beat this Q's results and guidance. Solid since our first buy-in mid 60's AH, it is now closing on 80.  We said the guidance was crazy and with a little patience you are seeing what a stock that actually has a solid company behind it can do.  An upgrade was noted yesterday, don't be fooled these upgrades don't show it's worth immediately.  It's the D-grades that you should worry about immediately. Volume was there today, highest since earning day.

GTI,  hung in there and looks to be shaping up for a try at IBD tomorrow. This one is quite different than the
IDSA, NGA we have considered as a IBD inclusion plays.  There are hedgies here that will knock you
down silly if the trip to $15 gets silly with exuberance. Think of it, you are a hedgie and you know the crowd
might be bidding hard for 15, maybe you'd just set a wall of sells at/near/above $15 on a Friday?. Could be a lot
of smoke and mirrors tomorrow...also, you don't know who might be pushing it up, including other hedgies late
in the week...and you don't who's waiting at $15 if it gets there.  Take out the IBD stuff and you have a pure turnaround story who's bottom line is changing. Sooner than later this will be at $15 +....Volume should surpass 2mln easily tomorrow and like CROX volume maybe the kick start to a good close.

Speaking of volume..this is what is lacking right now in some other holds like FWLT, LXU etc.  Like CROX today, volume tick to the upside should be what gets these stocks rolling again and gives us a reason to add shares.



DJIM #23  2007

Last weekend the hope was a few billion dollar M&A deals to get the market stimulated again. A few billion turned into 60 billion worth of deals or more brought back from the Hampton's. Our one concern to stymie this market was if the Shang' would sooner than later unravel our market again.  A few did their best trying to make the stamp tax a double shot of the Shanghai surprise we saw early in the year. We didn't even touch on this in Wednesday's Journal because we saw it as a non event. As far as we're concerned, the Chinese government is gonna do things their way and it will take a few more maneuvers of this type to cause the bubble to burst and spread to here.  Likely they'll be careful now after the early year swoon.  Soon after the FOMC minutes came and we were off to the races.  Well...races, but not what we would call a sprint!.   Still...what last week did was provide some DJIM stocks an opportunity to come of their shell and play....So on to some names heading to the trading week...

TBSI, we are all familiar with this shipper now ( #8 IBD ), we were adding late in the day and think this is ready to resume upwards. While ESEA looks quite extended, TBSI keeps putting in tails off the 9ema (showing support).

ESEA, this shipper intro'd Thursday night turned into a 16% move come Friday. Yes, a full 16% as the open price (13.40) and later a dip gave a chance to catch most of this move. Of course, we took some profits but we were back for more during the day. The PE seemed to be below the norm for these shippers and probably helped out its cause.

DRYS, is another Greek shipper we took a position in.  If this sector continues to climb, we like where this one sits on the chart to play along. This is a good and fast mover when caught at the right time.  We took a smaller position as we wait to see if this has the ouzo to bust out.

MR CYNO, a couple of names here for months made it to IBD's front page this weekend as both busted out to new highs. CYNO was basing between 30-32 for about a month, while MR is getting quite jumpy, you really have no idea day to day what it is going to do.  Sometimes with quality names you just have stick it out.  The front page coverage might get them some more air this week. We'll see...

PCS, TTC, MFLO recent pick ups closed at NCH's or close.  A few others that have been around longer at DJIM.. GTI NTLS RCCC TRCR also remain strong.

FWLT CROX MA continue to get DJIM trading dollars, mostly on positive index days.  Not much can be said that hasn't been said about these stocks since their earnings.

NOVC, as we said, the easy money has been made and we are only looking to trade it when there is some signs of life. The biggest mistake you can make is trying to get a piece of NOVC, if you missed the first move.  Too may are looking for a repeat move.  It's not going to happen to that magnitude without more news, so there is no need to feel left out.  Also, do understand it is inevitable with biotechs that firms come out and raise targets to very high levels. They have no choice as now there is finally news.  These targets, sometimes 50-100% higher are looking a year and more down the road and are calculating a perfect storm of everything going right to that time.  The chances are a biotech will leave your mind in a week or two as another takes it's place.  It does with us.    Unless you are a long term speculative investor, you are unlikely to see those price targets hit for NOVC, CYBP etc.this summer.

PLPC, bought a few shares to tuck away, maybe this has a little HTC, EML in it. These types are only if you have space and time to spare in your book for some not so liquid stocks.


DJIM #27 2007

One thing is for sure, the only thing that can seem to wake people up in this market is "earnings"!    The past week was filled with some dramatic volatility.   In the early part of the week it seems that market was ready to give up.    We had back to back days of strong opening and a very weak close.    Both indices were flirting around 50 ema and it just looked that shaky.    Come into rescue toward the end of the week is of course the prospect of the earning season.   The fed decision is once again a none  factor in this market this time of the year.    We feel many people are sitting on the sideline waiting for some good earning opportunities to get into.     From the big cap earnng front, RIMM definitely sets the tone as well as the benchmark for others to follow.   20% gain in one day given RIMM's market cap is still a very big deal, regardless of its momentum status.   To put this into perspective, GOOG has to gain over 100 bucks in one day just to gain 20% and that'd be just something unthinkable at this point of GOOG's growth cycle.

So what are we really looking forward to at this point?   Earnings, of course!   The earning season usually starts with Alcoa kicking off and that comes around second week of July.   Our game plan is the same as before, go after the winners early and aggressively.   If the apparent "winner" does not get the kind of attention we wanted, we simply move on for our next kill.    With earning season, we'd usually be busy enough to trade multiple earnings winners at same time.  So rest assured, if one doesn't work out, there'd always be the other one or two that will work out.    Now the key in trading that kind of strategy, is to stay with the winner, at all time.      We had a little taste of the earnings drive last few weeks from the likes of LPHI KMGB TNH FSLR RCCC TBSI... etc.   All of them have returned substantial gain given our usual time frame.      So be prepared and be ready, both financially and mentally, because the next 3 to 5 weeks of trading is probably the only trading matters in the summer.

Here are some stocks that are worth reviewing over the past week....

PENX, one thing about this earning winner is that it never had this kind of volume in its past quarters.   Perhaps, this quarter's number is just that good, or it is the fact that it's in a sector people really go gun ho about.   In any case, we the momentum traders may also have something to do with its latest volume surge.    Well folks, this baby is in play and that's all you need to know.     Remember our favourite strategy,  if you missed the first runup lets say from $24 to whatever price it stalls, the first pullback should always be bought, aggressively!   We are fortunate that we caught majority of the move so far but the rest of our game plan is still the same.   Just because we did well the first run up doesn't mean that we can slack off on the second time around.    So keep a close eye on this one and trade on the long side aggressively.    Always put the 9 ema up and imprint it in your mind to know where it is at all time.    Nobody wants to miss another RCCC or LPHI type of move again.    The funny thing is, at this point, we don't think people even care about their actual eps number anymore.   There's really no need to extrapolate their number to calculate a "proper" valuation price or assign P/E or whatever.    Know this, this one is in play and professional traders like us and others are trading sizable shares to drive this one higher.

KMGB, almost a month ago, this one came out with a strong report.   One month later, this one is roughly 30% higher, and it closed with a NCH on Friday.    Ok, we didn't stay in this one the whole one month.   As far as we did, we basically traded two runup.   The first runup was from the initial earning/IBD and second runup, which we are still in it, started couple of days ago as per our alert.    The coming week should be interesting since this one did not make it to IBD100 again but we think this shouldn't be an issue any more.    Float is pretty tiny for this one so as long as the chemical sector is in play, we'd like this one's odds to go much higher.

TNH, speaking of chemical sector, this one is probably the epitome of chemical stocks during the last three months or so.    The recent 10 point drop in one day may set a warning sign of its extended runup but we are still keeping this one as one of our favourite trading stock.   If you look at its chart, it hasn't closed "below" 9 ema ever since the breakout area of $90 and we think as long as this is the case, this one is still relatively safe to play.    The only thing of concern lately is that the volatility is getting to the extreme side of things and it may eventually crack its uptrend completely.

TBSI/DRYS, when shippers move, they move together and we like these two the best.   They both notched a new closing high on Friday and we'd see if this generates a new round of enthusiasm in the coming days.

FSLR/JASO/LDK, so once again solar plays have been hot lately.   Out of all of the solar plays we have touch based before, these three are the closest to their respective all time high.    If anything, we'd be trading among these three when the sector is having a good day.


DJIM #28 2008

In a typical holiday week trading fashion, things just went by quickly.    At the beginning of the week, we stressed out the importance of holiday week.   True to our belief, there was no shortage of plays and many were very opportunistic.    As the week has gone by, we are basically back to the point where we expect a flurry of earning reports.    Unlike the other quarters, this earning period seems to last the shortest with possibly the worst market reaction.    This is typical of this time of the year.    However, judging by the enthusiasm we've seen during the past few weeks, it doesn't really feel that we are slowing down, as far as trading goes.    Perhaps this has alot to do with the fact that the market is sitting relatively near the year high.   When the market is at or near the high, there always tend to be opportunities, and people always tend to be optimistic and are willing to put money into work.    This is just the way our psychology works.

So far, we had RIMM to thank for.   In the coming weeks, we are going to see more reports coming out.   Some reports will be praised and some will not be.    As far as our game plan goes, we are going to sift through reports that spawn the strongest trading reaction, positively of course.   We'd try to catch those that hopefully give us enough time and room to play.     

here are some strong plays from last week that may carry over into the coming week....

DRYS/TBSI, these two are the only two shippers we played last week and both of them pretty much closed out the week near the high.   At this point, we like DRYS's chart slightly better as TBSI looks a little too extended at this point.   However, we've learned too much from the past that we can only be so cautious.    A play will run its course whenever it decides to.   For us, even when we decided we should raise our cautionary flag, we'd still only keep it in the back of mind and react quickly once the reversal does happen.    Basically, we just have to be better prepared when the action gets too extended.

LPHI, this one is beginning to look better now.   After its initial sell of and the breach of 9 ema, it seems to stabilize the last few days.    If it can break the $36 area, we'd be back in full force.

AZZ, this one had a pretty good earning reaction and last few days have just been phenomenal.    It's now back near the old high and we'd see if it gather enough momentum to start a fresh legup from this point.

FWLT, volume didn'st seem to drop that much last week.   This is a good sign as the stock basically broke out from its consolidative trendline.   How high can it go or will it go?     We don't know but we know that we'll play this one untill the music stops.

FSLR/JASO/LDK/TSL,  we added TSL to the group last week.   This group has done some nice work last week.   As long as the 9 ema is in tact, we are trading them actively.

PENX, can this one pull a LPHI or RCCC?   In honesty, we'd like to see this one consolidate a bit.   The sooner it can consolidate, the better chance it can pull another runup.    We are keeping our eyes on this one very closely.

DDUP/SCOR, these two recent tech IPOs are hot on our list last couple of days.   We like their action in conjunction with the rest of the tech sector.   We think the runup will definitely carry into next week and we'd be trading these two aggressively.

Other notable gainers last week include SPAN MBLX GTLS CUB BTJ TRCR...


Tough to shake off earnings enthusiasm...

It's almost unthinkable that we'd start the earning season with a nasty drop which begins the long decline.   What happened yesterday simply gives many traders a dose of reality that nothing goes up forever and pullback/pauses are very common even in a seemingly bull market.    Hopefully, you just relaxed watched the All-Star game and watched our Blue Jay star make a catch late in the game!...Wow, wasn't that the manager thought his arms were too tired after the HR' derby the night before to let him get an at bat.   Thankfully, today proved that nothing has basically changed since the day before yesterday.     Good earning plays are still being rewarded and bad ones are being dumped.   Things are about as orderly as it gets.     Also, for most participants, it's irrational to sell before the optimistic expectations they have with respect to their holdings.     For DJIM, it works the opposite because we only get excited AFTER an earning has been announced.   For us, there's no optimism, no expectation nor any feeling toward any up coming earning announcement.    We are just excited over other people's excitement so we can take advantage when the actual trade comes.

There's no shortage of plays on the table today.    For us or for most traders in our loop, we'd like to point out that we have a habit of working with the green plays.    It's not only easier to do but it also makes a lot of sense regardless of the market condition.     In an up market, obviously you want to hang with the ones with the best momentum.  In a down market, anything green pretty much makes them stand out and you sure want a piece of the action unless the market is in a total distraught.    Buying dips, on the other hand, is definitely not our favourite strategy and we'd try to stay away from it as much as we can.     When you buy a dip, you couldn't help but thinking that you are just taking a chance that hopefully you are buying it near the intraday low.     The planning of the trade as well as the execution will be tough on your mind when you go against the trend.      That's why in an up market or when the market is in a clear bull mode, it's always better just to ditch those "buy on (#)ema dips" and work with the new highs and break outs.

LPHI, you are probably wondering why we weren't being aggressive buying the dips on this one when the "clear" outcome is for it to go challenge the new high.   Well, there's always the probability that it won't.     We basically want to strike when the moment is right.   Today we got that moment between $35 and $36 and we got in.    Instead of being in this one for a while and waiting for a move to happen, we'd prefer watching it until the move comes.    Now the chart looks good and it looks like this one is ready to challenge its old high and beyond.     We'd be adding more of this one aggressively if and when this one strengthens up.

CCF, our old friend did it again.   This one came out with pretty good number as noted last night and stock acted correspondingly.   We like the volume this one exhibited.    As we have mentioned earlier today, this one has an IBD rating of 85 93 before the report.  If the number gets revised up, it can mean a whole new world for this play.   Again, it's just a possibility and not a sure thing.

ASYS, finally, this is a new  play we are adding to our list after its tremendous "look at me" volume today.    This one has a very small float and since they are associated with solar plays, we think this one is way undiscovered compare to others.   Sure, many traders have started noticing this one today but we think the fun may be just the beginning.  If you played it off the alert, you got 2 runs of almost a $1 intraday...we're looking for more and so just added on the dips.  This little company is profitable, revenues growing and a very small float and not a one trick pony that was trading under 50k share day after day (2.2 mln today). This is the type of company when it reports that has the markings of potential yr. over yr numbers that will get it attention...but we're not waiting for that day off this volume. We said, we are seeking more attention for anything solar from the firms, news to keep these going, anything with solar has a ring to it to us, even if it is something like this today on a semi/solar like AMAT, which ASYS also happens to be...BofA believes solar opportunity transform AMAT into growth stock, BofA believe is AMAThas closed another solar thin flim deal with a European co. They est the size of the deal is 40MW with the initial investment in the 60m range. Firm believes the latest deal is particularly important as it is an emerging application, "building integrated photovoltaic". Total value of solar thin film contracts won to date, firm ests, is in the 540 mln range.They think AMAT will now win 600-900m in contracts in FY07 vs guidance of greater than 400 mln.

DRYS, this one was mentioned a couple days ago as our favourite shipper now before TBSI went tipsy.   It's been mentined here many times before that as well.  We felt TBSI needed a pullback but this one looked better chart wise, anyway.  btw..TBSI is back to $31 after yesterdays sale.  But it was DRYS today who showed us who's the boss and took on almost 10% and a new high.    Again, we wouldn't want to chase this one blindly as the risk/reward ratio is not nearly as good when it was around $45.

AZZ, to us, this thing for sure is going to break $40 and beyond.   Action looks superb in this one and we are adding.



Naz +49.9, Dow +283

Perhaps, there's really no need to write the journal tonight.    Again, as we said last night, we are excited over other people's excitement for this earnings quarter. Also..from weekend chart update.." Since, we have seen the market rally into the upcoming earnings season led by technology..the PHLX Semiconductor sector closed at a 52wk high to close off the week.  The HANG is taking over eyes and money from the SHANG and the day to day volatility in the latter seems to have little less effect on the markets here. That's a relief.  The HANG/HSI chart shows a clear breakout over 21,000 after a long fight (6 mths) with that level.  With a good start to earnings season, M&A activity still showing robustness, we don't doubt the markets can pull a move somewhat similar to HANG's after the DJIA/SPX bust through the 3 mth range over 13700 and 1540 respectively".      How's that for a start today!. Actually, today is that seemingly rolled into one day.  Despite the overall very bullish sentiment of this market, we want to quickly point out that people are only optimistic about the market as long as the earning delivers.    So far, we haven't had many companies to report but it feels like people are playing as if most companies are going to beat earnings expectation.    If this is how people think and at the same time the put the money where their thinking is, so be it.    For us, we still stick to our own game plan and concentrate on those that have reported good report.      A strong market will reward all kinds of traders, whether you are speculating blindly or working with a sound strategy.     Everyone makes money in this market!   

Now onto some of the DJIM plays...

LPHI, oh yes, this one is ready to challenge the old high.    We like where it ended up today and couldn't help but add some more.

DRYS/TBSI,  DRYS has just been a monster as of late.   The 7% gain today in addition to yesterday's gain is something that amazes us even.  TBSI, on the other hand, isn't looking too bad either as it shook off the sell off two days ago and it too  looks like it's ready to challenge its old high. DRYS, an upgrade was up late in the pm.

ASYS, an erratic one it seems or one that gives many opportunities to enter a trader might think.

SOLARS......they are hanging in and probably didn't participate as a few of us would have liked. ...who cares, really..maybe they are waiting to do it on their own...Still..they are hanging in tough and maybe the firms are really getting involved (hope) as we noted the other night.

In fact many stocks hit new high`s today and we are not going to list all of them.   Some email us as to why we don`t include their fave stock in the Journal.  That`s not what the Journal purpose is!.   If we already covered the stock endlessly, it is almost irrelevant if it appears on radar again with a NCH today or yesterday.  It`s worth maybe a note by you on the forum, but it is not enough reason to write about if there are many things better that we are concentrating on.   We also move on from turtles...Sharks eat turtles for breakfast, lunch and dinner and you don`t want be carrying a laggard in this market, especially if this stock in question already gave you a few points off an alert.  

Whether we like it or not, this month looks like it's going to be busier than recent July`s.   If you were invested heavily today, then you had a good time as it didn't take much trading to make money if you were already in the right could have sat on your hands and just rang the register..or you could do it tomorrow off any follow through action early.



A few things going on here on the forum the past few days that resemble Summer Camp...

Let's be courteous on the forum... if someone gets bruised.....we've all been there and no reminding is needed....they've given you enough leads on winners that this is not needed and respect should be shown.    Also, if one didn't or don't get enough love from their closest in life or trading life ....let's not use DJIM to wax our egos now or cry for love....Also, if you don't like our comments about a stock we responded about (speak up and we'll debate) and don't do it in round about ways.  It's so obvious, it ridiculous to all...Don't think we are bullying your stock.....just read our comments over again and stop filling other members email boxes with this stock is up $1 nonsense ...hell, it better be in this market off  'pretty' earnings.  We are all here together trying to make $$, screw the summer camp crap....we`re not about to be counselors.  We`ll just call your parents and have them take you away.    Demi


DJIM #29  2007

The easiest thing to do would be to speak of the big market move last week, but we won't do that and instead look forward to the week ahead. Hopefully, we steered you in the right direction in our Journals the past while and you have stayed invested heavily in the market and our plays as they were the beneficiaries as much as anything else last week. Just looking at the list from DIM #28...DRYS TBSI LPHI AZZ FWLT PENX DDUP SCOR FSLR TSL LDK JASO and you see who played with enthusiasm.  If you need still need to grasp the significance of last weeks action, just look at the weekend charts/comments.  Funniest quote so far heard though, is ..."meanwhile while the media is enjoying their victory lap, many investors are less than enthusiastic about the moves in their accounts at the end of the week....they didn't see the same huge gains in their accounts".  Name the the tout and win a free month at DJIMstocks...NAH, that wouldn't work as too many of you are quite familiar with this singer.  Sounds like sour grapes for some reason, if you ask us!.   At this point in the game, we have to look for some potential stalled action, fortunately we have earnings as the base of this DJIMstocks and it should not stop us from going forward as earnings will pick up this week and new picks will start to show their colors.  We already had some nice reports from CCF, GBX, SCHN  indicating a diverse crop of good reports possibly to follow. Use our Earnings Dates link to see some notables reporting.  Again, we ask for members to post within that link any earning dates for DJIM stocks past and present plays you might come across and we will edit them into a list for all to keep track of this Q.  Going forward, we're basically keeping to the same list as last weekend of stocks we are concentrating on, plus a few new ones that appear all over DJIM last week.  Take into consideration some stalling action in the market realistically should come to some of our names as well.  When that happens we wait and see if the stock sets up again for us to enter a buy in. Examples of this are PENX and DDUP late Friday. LPHI was another were patience is rewarded as it put in a 5pt move after we moved in again.  There is not much to add to individual stocks that was not already said last week, nothing has changed really in our thinking towards those plays  A few other breakouts of past DJIM stocks that we have not signalled out but have been mentioned in our forum such as CMED, SPEC should also be included in any watchlist. The most important thing right now is probably to start freeing up some cash if you are heavily invested to use on new plays that will emerge.  It is quite hard now as everything seems to be running and gunning out there, but it is something you might start doing this week.


Trading for the sake of trading....

On surface, this market didn't do alot on either direction today.    When we look closely, it's actually pretty volatile given  where we are, which is essentially the beginning of the earning season.    Some stocks have given up some gains early on but that is just part of the game.    As traders, we have to respect the nature of this game and participate actively as oppose to just spectating as by stander.    The point we are referring to is that we have to actively take profit when things are going good.    For those that have already gotten into this habit, then it's definitely something to treasure for.    We'll take a look at some stocks....

DRYS, this is definitely one of those stocks that have had a tremendous run in the last few days.    We thought it looked a little extended couple of days ago and today it confirmed our suspicion.    At this time, we are going to be shy away from it unless a dramatic move happens to the upside.

TSL, there was plenty of time in the early going to lock in some profit from its recent runup.   If you got a little greedy, well there goes the last few days worth of gains.    When treating the type of momentum stocks like TSL, it almost always pays to sell into strength and buy back on new highs.    Also, it's crucial to setup tight stops and this can save lots of pain for most traders.     This one touched 9 ema today and we'll see how it responds to it tomorrow and next couple of days.

LPHI, this is definitely one of the better, if not the best plays on our screen today.   Believe it or not, it tacked on almost 6 points since our b/o alert of $36 area.    Now, the worst thing you want to do with this kind of play is to set a price target.    In our opinion, it's just not realistic to set any kind of price target.    We go with the flow.    We'd sell some into the strength and if it comes back and goes higher, we'd chase it higher.    So how do you know when the runup will stop?    We'd get worried if it takes out previous day's opening price with a close.      Although this may not work every time as a reversal signal, you can always buy it back(higher) if you get shaken out.    Remember, we are traders so "get shaken out and selling too early" is just part of business.

ASYS, we like this one's setup even though you can say the other solar stocks are in bit of a funk today.    The low float is a definite plus when it comes to trading this stock.  The fact it's still a semi business after all  is also separating it from the other solar stocks.

PENX, this one also did not disappoint and closed reasonably well despite the market's late day weakness.    Based on its recent action, we think the race to $40 range is on for this one.

VSR, some of you have probably been trading this one last little while and so have we.   We think a pullback is definitely needed if this one wants to see even higher prices.   Momentum is very strong and news flow is very steady with this one.    The intraday action has been opportunistic but unless you can stomach the possibility of a pullback, it's better to wait for a better entry.

Market is heating up on the earnings front and even some of the speculative ones have been driven up on positive results.    We just want to caution readers that when looking at the price reaction relative to the earning report on the speculative ones,  ask yourself if the reaction is reasonable.   If you think the reaction is reasonable, then ask yourself again how long this reaction can last and ultimately ask yourself if you are going to be comfortable trading/holding it till next week.     No traders are alike when dealing with any kind of plays.   We just want to make sure that you are aware of the risk and effort that's involved into making a spec. play profitable. 


You want tech earning?

Well, there you go tonight!    The highlight is the two of the biggest technology companies reporting tonight.   We are not going to discuss nor analyze their earning because there's tons of dedicated websites/articles/analysts for that.   What we keep an interest on is the reaction for each respective stock in after hour.     The action doesn't look too positive.    This is probably due to the expectation that's been set in place for these companies.   After all, the rally we've been having the last little while is largely due to the anticipated good results from the tech sector.

For one thing, tomorrow is going to be interesting as we'll be able to see if there's going to be a change in shift of the trading mood.     It's important because when we are in a bull mode( so far), every downtick or dip can be bought safely in anticipation of a bull push sooner or later.   When the bull mood changes to the cautious mood, the dip may not be bought aggressively or at all and this can dramatically lean heavy to the other side of the spectrum.    Of course, we don't want to make a quick judgement either if the market opens sluggish tomorrow because there's still tons of tech and non tech stocks that matter to this market that haven't reported yet.

Bottom line, don't play the earnings before hand and play them afterwards.    For us, it's also true that big companies make up the headline but the small companies make up the profit in our portfolio.     So, we keep in mind the potential change in trading mood but still actively hunt for good quality earnings report from small and mid cap sectors.

DRYS, if you really had to point out a real winner today then this one is on top of the list.   Yesterday's sluggish close is all but distant memory.   Of course, we'd wonder if it wasn't for that price target increase from Jefferies, would all these shippers even go up at all?    At this point, we are simply playing some intraday moves and aren't holding any over night.   We still feel the risk to enter for a long position is too high and we'd prefer some consolidative action first.

LPHI, we are parting away a fair portion of our position in this one.   What this play has done for us the last few days has been nothing short of phenomenal.   It's just a little too far extended at this point.

Solars, if yesterday didn't raise any cautionary flag from this sector, then today it's screaming that the sector is breaking down.    Believe it or not, every one of our favourite solar stocks we've been trading the past while, including FSLR, TSL JASO LDK, have broken below 9 ema today, all at the same time.    These stocks have not closed below 9 ema in about one month of trading time and that's about 20 trading days.    Now, this may not look like anything meaningful to some but to us, it probably means the fun time may be come to an end with this sector and we are shying away from this group untill some dramatic positive catalyst happens.

LKQX, we bought a starter in this one as the reaction to their takeover of Keystone has been very positive.   We are going to be watching its action closely.   This one is sitting on a huge short interest, fyi.


..can't we all just get along?

...Can't we just use the late afternoon pre 4pm Journal edition and not the 4:01pm GOOG edition.  What was an impressive day with earnings from many giving the hyper bulls more ammo turned quickly sour with GOOG's results.  Maybe if GOOG gave guidance, we'd not be sitting here guessing what will transpire next.  There is really no point to guess the extent of the damage tonight.  A first step is to see reaction of firms in their notes in the morning and then to see where the spillover might or might not be.  Do all the better than expected reports, including NASD tech get washed out by GOOG's report?. The short fear mongers will definitely give this news a good run for your money.  All we could do is watch what our closely followed do tomorrow and that does not mean just in the first hours of trading...Back to before 4pm with DJIM stocks...

AP, opened strong and then basically flat lined the rest of the day. We couldn't have asked for a better follow through day of about 4%.

DRYS, TBSI etc., the shippers are getting positive morning calls day after day. At these levels we are somewhat fearful of nosebleeds to hold these overnight. The best way to trade these is to watch for more morning calls on the sector and trade them from the open and swing some points out of them.

LDK, last night we noted some of the targets on it and the fact that it was only 7pts off IPO price. Well..make that 10 now as it was the most impressive solar out there. We'd look for a pullback if this missed today even off the NCH as the solars might get some pressure... FSLR is off AH about 5 pts due to an offering of 9.65 mln shares... "We are selling 4,000,000 shares and the selling stockholders named in this prospectus are selling 5,650,000 shares of our common stock. We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling stockholders."  The interesting thing about these offerings is they should be assumed to occur sooner than later.  You don't sign up 1.28 bln in contracts and continue to work out of your single need a double garage and you need to fund it.   Still, one of the shorts fave words is dilution and they will work it.

TXT, we thought this could do a quick move off the open and it that shooting 6-7pts.  Short lived as it might be, it serves some of our subs' trading tactics.  We liked the report and if the market sentiment doesn't turn here, we'll hold on to the starter.  We think it has upside off this report ...Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.69 per share, $0.24 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.45; revenues rose 14.7% year/year to $3.23 bln vs the $3.09 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $1.45-1.55 vs. $1.53 consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $6.35-6.55, up from previous guidance of $6.10-6.30, vs. $6.31 consensus; sees FY07 rev growth of approx 12%, which equates to revs of approx $12.87 bln vs. $12.6 bln consensus. Also announced repurchase and stock split. Primarily aviation, defense play.

Whatever happens tomorrow, trading opportunities will still come forward.  If you looked over VMI, BMI from last nights Journal lead...or a quick in the form of SBEI's to $7, a DDUP move today to almost $29 shows there is and will be plenty of plays depending on your style.....but what we are gearing for and anticipating is micro- small cap earnings to concentrate on outside of the GOOG world noise.

TTPY, also have a look at this recent IPO, next generation radiation oncology equipment that is gaining acceptance in the marketplace.


DJIM #30, 2007

If there's one thing the market has taught us in the past, it's that you have to always be prepared to face the surprises.    Out of all the companies that have reported last week, nobody expected an earnings miss from the growth behemoth Google.    Sure, some of you can argue that you saw it coming, and that sooner or later it'll happen to Google.    However, lets really be honest here, there was just no indication or any warning from the company or analysts that suggest a short fall was in order for Google's current quarter.     Well, it just made this situation very tricky for this market.   Of course, one company cannot bring down the whole market.  So, CAT helped.  A few of the well respected and cheered companies can certainly derail the market's bull pace, that's for sure.    So what we are going to be keeping an eye on the next little while, is to see if there's going to be a fundamental change in market participant's trading behaviour.    Usually a market participants sentiment would directly translate into his/her trading action.    Action, is what most of us are concerned about.     Well, we do this sort of mental checks often to keep us disciplined.    Before we commit lots of our capital and energy into this market, we have to make sure market's in a favourable environment where mistakes can turn out to be forgiving, not disastrous.   Now lets review some of the plays from last week....

DRYS/TBSI, this duo along with the rest of the shipping sector, has enjoyed one of the most profitable weeks in their lifetime.   It seems analysts are just jumping bandwagon with one upgrade after another.   Nobody wants to be left behind when the whole sector is hot and in play.   Of course, it does make them smart to act the "correct" way.     The difference between us and those analysts is that although we also jump on the bandwagon, but we only jump on because of the trading opportunities.    We can jump off just as quick too.    When dealing with a hot sector, we'd definitely separate the stock action from the companies' business.    Basically, even though one's business may be the excuse to explain the stock behaviour, but ultimately, we trade stock action, we don't trade a company's business.

Solars, this sector has seen some intensive selling for the first time in a while.   Sure, you can say it's just healthy consolidation and it's just a matter of time before they break up again.    For us, until they break do break out, we'd remain very cautious on any bounce attempt.    The only exception from the sector is LDK, which had some company specific news.   We'd keep an eye on that one to see if it warrants further trading opportunities.

AP/TXT, these are two new plays we've added to our watchlist/portfolio.   We are feeling very positive about their earnings and the way traders reacted to their earning.   It's definitely more important to get the right kind of reaction than number.   Again, you only profit from a good reaction, not an actual eps report.


Bottom line, we still have a large portion of stocks that have yet to report and we continue to look for that unlikely hero.    To us, the big companies provide the headline but the little ones provide our bottom line.    As long as the big companies stay in line for the most part, we should still go aggressively after those small ones with a favourable reaction to their earnings report.



You have to respect what this market is capable of.    Also, we are crystal clear on what sort of market news this market does not like.    As we have said before, as long as there's no heavyweights that can tip the fine balance of this market, we should be ok.     However, if there's enough market moving negative news coming out in a steady fashion, even the most bullish case will have to be shoved to the side, for now.     It isn't pretty out there and we really have to raise our cautionary flags a few notches today.    Market has been very volatile lately and unfortunately much of the volatility seems to weigh on the negative side.  It's been bad..good..bad..good and today it got ugly.  We all can read about it elsewhere, we had some prelim numbers on AAPL's iphone biz premkt and then we supposedly had the entire market on CFC's CC of 3 hours taking us down late in the day. Earnings are not stellar and there is fuel being added with the housing, sub prime hourly reports.  AMZN up 12 bucks AH and maybe others, including AAPL AH's can give us some reflexive bounce action soon.  At this point as we said this weekend in the charts, the lines are drawn in the sand  on the indices and today the NASD cut one to start.   We'd be selling holds into any strength now, unfortunately..many will be thinking this way.   Tomorrow is probably the busiest EPS day with many S & P co's set to report, willl we get some reprieve or will focus shift further after CFC into the ECO/ housing #'s out tomorrow.  There are a few small cap reports that aren't getting the attention they might otherwise, despite AMZN's move tonight.  We'd just say be a little more careful now if a stellar report comes out on a micro/ small as the interest might not be as we are accustomed to.  So watch the chasing of the gap if one comes along.  We'll see...volume will always tell the tale.

At this point, we'd like to stick with the more predictable plays as oppose to wager on a bullish market to bail us out on some of the potential setups.      Ok, some companies have reported some nice earnings but they are also prone to be vulnerable to severe market sell offs.    We are back to a stance of taking a wait and see mode on new buys.   We've talked about only using the morning calls, early action if any, as in indication if to trade the TBSI, DRYS on a particular day lately.  Today, clearly was what we feared if you were holding these overnight.  TBSI was ugly late in the day as the cries of all overboard were heard on this shipper.

We basically want to see which plays can emerge as potential winners when things do settle down.  

Today, a few probably got lucky by selling off the DDUP, AP first thing in the morning as it turned out.  For stocks trading this orders, stops are usually suicidal.  We've seen both of these stocks bounce nicely in the past few days after such action.  Watching a stock down 2 bucks on less than 50K early volume is simply a few causing a stock to falter fast.  Best to sell into positive action, you'd get a better price yesterday than fleeing early as today in most circumstances!.  Most circumstances are not -200/50 point days.

CRNT, this is probably the only predictable thing on our screen today, despite a downgrade.    It's predictable as in a sense it's being played for a potential high ranking IBD100 debut.  Too bad we didn't start earlier than today as on other plays where the potential % return leading to IBD listing was much greater, such as GTI, NGA.   We'd be playing this one aggressively as long as the mood is right with it.

Bottom line, we want to have a clear vision when it comes to trading and we aren't getting any today.    It is best to protect the capital at the moment and let other market participants sort out the mess.    There will be opportunities when things get settled down.


Focusing on the sure plays...

Index is doing a good job confusing traders today and it looks as though it'll take a while for some conviction to kick in.    Most of us aren't counting on a major rally at the moment and we are only playing things off a tradable bounce.    As long as we are aware that this is the situation we are in, we then have to look at plays that offer us this kind of tradable opportunities.     There is really just a few obvious plays worth watching for today and we will go through them here...

VMW, we pointed out last night that the break out area is around $59 and boy did it explode after it broke through that mark.    Again, it's about emotion and momentum at this moment and there's really no need to even look at its fundamental aspect of this play.    The ones who paid $66/share only care if he/she can get out at $69 or higher.    Pay attention to the technical sign and intraday movement as they are the only necessary things you need to trade this play at the moment.    With its strong close today, we carried some position home and we'd be at it again aggressively tomorrow.     This one has the kind of liquidity and price movement we haven't seen in a long while.   Take our word for it, this kind of play doesn't come often and do take advantage of it.

ISRG, this one poked back above 9 ema today and closed near the high.   We are keeping our  eyes close on it for a potential follow through.   Unfortunately, many plays on our watchlist are very sensitive to the index movement and it's impossible to forecast the index on an hourly basis.   In another word, playing these kind of plays can be risky so we'd do small lots to cut the exposure down to minimum.

DRYS/TBSI, after DRYS eps report tonight, we'd keep our eyes closely on this pair tomorrow morning for a potential trade.    This group was taken down like others last few days and it'd be interesting to see if they can recover some off this DRYS report.

Bottom line, the index point movement  lately may not show the true potential of this market's volatility.    We shouldn't let this seemingly calm action lower our guard down.    The market can turn badly literally off one piece of bad news and we have to be prepared for it.    We are far from out of the woods  and it's definitely appropriate to trade lightly.    Keep the plays simple and short and we'd able to finish this month on a high note.


Timing is of Essence

For the first time in a long while, index gapped higher and stayed strong throughout the day and closed near the high.    This is something we haven't experienced in a while and we welcome this change of pace.     To be honest here, this month is supposed to be a vacation month for many participants and it's so far turning out to be anything but.    The last time we had this much activity this time around was the year of the hurricane and it was  very sector specific in terms of trading.    This time around, we are dealing with a crisis and alot of people are sticking around to see it through.     This can be both a good thing and bad thing.   It's good that we are finally trading with some meaningful volume with some good plays in supposedly the slowest month of the year.    It's bad that if we keep up this pace, most traders would get burned out sooner than later.

Now the topic of timing!    Trading opportunities are useless if you can't time it right.    Potential opportunities are only potential if you can't take advantage of the setup.    We are stressing that because these days, a trade can only be maximized if you enter the setup and exit it correctly.   Fundamentals, unfortunately only matters most in a calm and non volatile environment.    We have to fully realize that we are "trading" the opportunities here in this extraordinary environment.  Make sure you treat our plays here as a trade, not an investment.     Earnings number merely provide a catalyst and ultimately it's the market participants' collective effort to dirve a stock higher or down.    We at DJIM are doing what we can to gauge the force between demand and supply and take advantage of such imbalance in a timely manner.     You enter a trade at the right time and exit when it calls for.   This is called timing and we strongly encourage everyone to get to know intraday technical and other short term trend spotting technique to benefit and improve the trading. 

Now onto some stocks...

DRYS, as noted last night, this one came out with earnings and it's the one to watch on top of our list.   SO why didn't we enter the trade earlier?   Again, timing is everything and we wanted to make sure the minute we enter the trade, it can only go nowhere but up.   This is where intraday reading comes in.    We aren't sure if traders would have enough to push this one higher earlier but toward the afternoon we were more confident to go in for a trade when it was pushed over $60.    Had this one stayed around $59 in the afternoon, we would not have entered a trade.    This one is not known for gap ups after a big day but it's so close to its old high and we couldn't help thinking that it's ready to bust through, given a little help from the overall market.

BCSI, the small float helped alot on this crazy mover today.   We are definitely putting this one high on our watchlist too and looking to trade a few points when the appropriate setup comes.

VMW, you have to respect what this one is capable of.   It can take you way up and can drop you down, all in a very liquid fashion.   We alerted earlier that we'd be selling some into strength and lock up some nice profit and would reenter in the late afternoon if the pace keeps  up.    The close is a little disappointing so we have to see how it plays out tomorrow.

There are quite a few stocks that looked strong toward the end and it's definitely a good idea to keep an eye on them for tomorrow.   Some of the stocks we are currently watching/holding for tomorrow include CRNT LDK MR TBSI ISRG GHM....     At the close, there's an announcement that BoA made an equity investment into Country Wide Financial.   This news is causing some positive stir in the futures and it'd be interesting to see if we can get some positive follow through tomorrow. 


DJIM #35

If you were told a week in advance where the stock indices would end up, what would you have done?   In other words, what stocks would you have bought or sold in anticipation of this move.   Frankly, we wouldn't have guessed right about any stocks even if we were told the indices would go up this much.    Instead, we just had to rely on our instinct and take cues from daily action.     Everyday, things can change and moves can be unpredictable.    This is definitely one of the toughest trading environment we had to encounter last little while.    Sure, at the end of the week, we can look back and see how easy all these plays would've been called and how everything just made sense the way they behaved.   So was it that obvious?   Lets just say, every one of us would have a different version of answer to that.

The fact of the matter is, despite what may seemed like a good week for many of us, we still played very cautiously.    We try not to out read the market or outsmart the trend.    We just stuck to a simple game plan.      We look for plays that have relative good strength and load them when market is in good momentum.     We lock profit constantly when the market looks directionless and buy them back when the market looks stable enough.    All in all, we simply stuck with a group of stocks that stood out from the crowd.    That, to us, is the key in trading in this kind of market.  This isn't to say this strategy is fire proof and can net you a crazy return.    To us, this is just the safest means to survive in this kind of unpredictable market.

In terms of crisis management, we seemed to have gotten less news(bad ones) from the market last week.   This definitely calmed down all of the market participants somewhat.   However, this doesn't mean that it's the end of this whole subprime and credit crunch saga and we are safe to move on.    This market still needs some strong test.    The kind of tests we are referring to are the "swallow the bad news" kind of test.    Basically, we wanted to see how this market copes with another round of subprime or credit crunch related news.    If by then, the market seems to absorb the news in a good way and focus more on the earnings side of things, we may then be able to expand our play list into other area and increase our exposure.     Basically, we just have to be prepared for alot of unknowns and everybody has a fair chance at this point.  Tthis is why we love this gig!

Now onto some plays...

WX, this one didn't make it to IBD100, in case anyone cared.    We don't think this is the concern at the moment.   What we notice is that this one is sure on alot of traders' radar as a hot play.    We like this fact!    This company is in a unique position to take advantage of its business.   Basically, nobody can compete with them in terms of cost, the cost of doing business that is.    As far as its business goes, you can simply read up the latest IPO filing.     Right now, we are playing this one like any other hot plays.  It means we are taking profit as often as  going for re-entries.    The play isn't looking tired in anyway at this moment and we hope it'd last alittle while longer.

VMW, perhaps we should just simply buy this one for long term, like back when Google IPOed.   But we then realized there's only one Google and this one is called VMW.    There's alot of expectation out of this one and institutions are getting involved in a big way.   Sure, we don't think its business can grow like Google but that is of no concern to us at this moment.   This play still has legs and we aren't playing this one casually either.

DRYS, this one just looks very tricky because it's at its previous high.    Keep in mind, we aren't talking about the earnings or fundamentals here and there's nothing wrong with that.    We are simply unsure if shippers as a group can gain a new leg up.   We don't believe DRYS can go up on its own without the whole sector following behind its leadership.   This is a big if and we have to keep it in mind constantly.

CRNT, who'd thought BIDU would take #1 spot on IBD100, instead of this one?   It's irrelevant at this point.    We got a feeling that this one can start a new leg from here.    Alot of this speculation hinges on the performance of the index, however.   Unlike some of the other plays here that trade less dependently on the market, this one seems to follow the indices better.

BCSI, even a monster needs a rest sometimes.    Of course, this one has the kind of float that reminded us of many great plays in the past.     We'd be alittle more careful trading this one.