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Entries in fslr (26)



We are almost two months into the new year and many of us have been asking the same question.   Is this the kind of market we have been expecting?   The truth is, nobody can really answer this question.    Just like an individual stock, the overall market would spend most of its time in the consolidation mode.    It seems we have been stuck in this mode for the longest time.    Unfortunately, there's really not much we can do about this and we can only do our best to cope with this situation.     Today it started off as if the market wants to go down hard but it ended up in a meaningless way.    Our DJIM stocks have fared better than most in this market environment and this is the exact sort of things we liked to see to end our trading day.      Here are some highlights...

FSLR TSL JASO, even though we are grouping these three together since they are all solar plays, we do have to point out that FSLR is the only one that we have considered as an earning plays.    Solar plays are hot and there's no doubt about that.   We think these three represent the best in the solar trading world where both the liquidity and technical signs are top rated.

CSV, this little funeral service stock broke out today on pretty convincing volume.   We didn't think those insider buying was meaningless so we added then and again some today.    It's hard to speculate how high the institutions will take this one up to but one thing we can all agree about its business is that "it's just a proven business".

BW OEH VTRU HURC TRT CGX,  again we are grouping these together b/c these are familiar names that always seem to outperform the rest of the market.    Steady as she goes!    It's nice to have a 20%+ mover in your portfolio but it's the steadiness of some of our stocks that make our portfolio really shine.  All these have been early earning buys this Q at DJIM and OEH, is a sec play on other hotel earnings plays that came out with nice reports.  Now, it gets some takeover speculation with the CEO departure. We thought this speculation was already underway due to industry conditions and company internals, today Bear Stearns added some fuel to it.

CENX survived earning with a NCH to boot and shows this aluminum play is looking for its 52 wk highs down the road.  A couple of recent faves CCF, HMIN are now over 9ema and back on close watch.

Things are definitely looking pretty rosy at this moment and we have seen no shortage of leaders among the stocks on our watchlist on a daily basis.    Does this mean that we are committing heavily into this market?    At this point, we feel we are committing more capital but only on a selective basis.    Things can get out of hand when you add too many positions and it's easy to lose track of things.     A good strategy is to limit our portfolio to a certain number of positions.     For example, when we get to near the close of the trading day, we always ask ourselves a question, "are we going to be holding the best 10 stocks on my screen overnight?"   If things do check out then we can end the day happy but if one or two stocks seem like a laggard then we just cut them lose or replace them as in a CXW yesterday.    This is of course assuming the market is still in a pretty good stand and there are stocks on our watchlist that are outperforming.     Basically the point is that we are always extremely picky about what we hold in our portfolio and this means ...yep, we'll say it again thanks to MFW finance holding into earning. 



Now only if our entire portfolio is made up of these solar plays, then we wouldn't be worrying about the choppiness of this market.   The truth of the matter is, when you have become a mature trader, it's just hard to dedicate a meaningful percentage of your portfolio to plays like these.   We have been playing these solar plays for a while now but results are definitely not the same as the stock's performance suggests.    Well, this is part of the game and we just have to weigh in and balance out different plays with different kind of risk/reward ratios.    The market looked a little worrisome intraday and despite a late pick up in the market indices, many of the most recent strong stocks we follow still ended up in red.     Unfortunately, when the only group of stocks you are trading are the ones that are near 52 week high, this sort of behaviour is common when they lose a little steam.    We reduced some exposure today and we are still going home with a cautionary note.     At this point, we have no bias on the overall market and we are certainly not sticking our necks out to see which way the wind is blowing.     We are taking some of the trading opportunities from some hot sector and some story stocks to make our trading days a little more meaningful.

TSL,  yes it looks like one of our members gave it a royal pom pom blessing and it closed at the high today.   The momentum certainly looks strong and it feels like there is more upside to come.   Right now, this play is really beyond the eps/outlook but rather it's more momentum based as we've said before.   What you see is what you get and it's a little pointless taking the fundamental into the account when the daily swing is 10%+.    We have been busy trading this one on the long side but we are taking this play as is.   We do want to caution that when this one does pull back, don't expect just a one or two point pullback, be prepared for some dramatic movement. In the meantime, even a technical newsletter bull on SOLF can bring the others into play once again.  It could also work the other way, so be on guard and don't get carried away.

FSLR, we don't know if this one is following TSL or the other way around but the end result is similar.   This one also closed pretty good and pace seems a bit controlled compare to TSL.    Even though FSLR's gain is conservative compare to TSL, we feel it's also way less risky when it comes to actual trading.    Again, it's really up to an individual to decide which one he/she is more comfortable with.  But as we said yesterday, we are more concerned with the strongest at a particular time...hitching a ride and not asking for names.

EML, yes volume is really laughable in this one today but it's only a buck or two off the all time high.   Keep an eye on this one as this is back in play in our book and watch for further volume increase to look for trading opportunities.

MFW, nice rebound so far. The best way to trade this is go with the flow as the institutions will do the calculating on the debt of one part of the company and the value of the licorice biz etc..  We are not about to crunch the numbers,  it's easier to go with the flow. If this continues it should top the recent top going into MFW's full earnings which appear to be in mid March.  Plenty of time to catch on,  if we get a continuation of the big run recently.

UEIC, we added this one to our watchlist on Friday and bought a starter.    We liked its earning number but more importantly its earning reaction.   This one is actually an institution's favourite too as 75% of the float is held by them.   We are definitely keeping a close eye on it to see any further development.

Briefingcom bit, Barron's reports Universal Electronics (UEIC) shareholder Neal Goldman, who runs Goldman Capital, believes shares could appreciate by up to another 50% in 12 to 18 months, based on increasing penetration of the markets for HD TV and digital-video recorders. He's also enthused about new products like Universal's Nevo SL controller that orchestrates everything from HDTV to music stored on a computer and routed through a home-stereo system. "If you take away the $4.50 a share in cash from the [roughly] $25 stock, you are looking at a stock that's trading at a very low multiple of 16 and that can grow at a rate nearly twice that," Goldman maintains. The co's sales and earnings, reported late Thursday, topped Wall Street's consensus estimate, lifting the shares more than 23% Friday alone. Universal also raised its Q1 guidance. DirecTV (DTV) and Comcast (CMCSA), which utilize Universal's technology for their set-top control boxes on an OEM basis, are its biggest customers, providing 19% and 11% of revenue, respectively. The co's technology is also used in DVRs that TiVo (TIVO) and the cable/satellite operators supply to their customers. The real allures, according to Avondale Partners are its intellectual property -- a portfolio of patent-protected technology -- and market position, with 75% market share in providing remote controls to U.S. cable operators," director of research John Bright says. Their library includes more than 260,000 device codes, which allow its devices to plug into more than 2,400 brands worldwide.

We like Avondale..past success with their money

BTJ, IBD's "New America" section gave this one a pop today and this is definitely one of the most interesting oil service plays out there.    Maybe this one is getting the kind of exposure it needs to price it at a relatively higher valuation.   We think once the IBD fever dies down, it'll go back to the old "track the crude price" behaviour.   It's just at this point, it's hard to say how much higher of a price it's going to sustain with this new found IBD exposure. Day to Day with these as before.

All in all, this is mostly a "do nothing" day for us other than a few selective plays.    We are sticking to "play with the flow" strategy and not to lean either way until every signal we see points heavily in one direction.


To chase a little or not?...

Just as the stress seems to have abated to a certain degree, we are faced with trading going into a weekend.  If the markets takes comfort today in the international markets and uses it as a catalyst to gap at the open, we wonder if taking solace in the rebound action carries over to holding into a weekend.  Somehow, we think the investor/trader would rather get back in the cautious tent, put away the bargain hunting for a day and just wait for the signals from trading overseas come Monday morning to proceed.  Yes, it felt better today but we prefer to lose sight of this and just head into the weekend with a cautious stance before everyone else.   Hey, if we're wrong today, it doesn't mean we won't be kicking and screaming in if the market shows strength tomorrow. This was part of the thinking today and not getting overzealous in finding stocks off the gap that we would want to hold into the weekend.  The gaps are great on the heels of a foreign market if you bought the day(s) before, but to chase them is not so fruitful as the days have been met with late day sell offs.  Today was different,  well actually it was not as the sell off started at 2pm instead of after 3pm when the subprime mumbo hit the market.  These market opens are great if you want to dish out for 1000k shares of a HMIN type and make a quick grand+, somehow we don't think many of us are using this leverage but many smartly are as they sell off to others that chase these opens.  Today just proved how sensitive the market is to any headline as we regurgitated more of this subprime news that has been burdening the market.   Simply, it puts into perspective that even though some might be thinking we have bottomed, they will still run at first sight of any negativity.  Most are thinking what ma and pa would do and not what they want to do themselves.  Everyone is thinking what their fellow trader will do and right now it seems one doesn't have much confidence in the other to hold into a potential change in tide.  Yep, we're guilty!.  We have been bunkered 8,9 days and we won't miss something beautiful by jumping the gun, especially heading into a weekend....The commodities are showing they are game and financial are participating which has been a good sign.  Besides doing some of the fashionable day trading here and there, we continue to be selective in what we put up.... 

KBW , we mentioned as a follow up Tuesday night to the banks has moved from $34 to a touch of $37 today.

NVTL , had climbed 5% to a high until taken down with the market. We said because we expected fewer plays, we'd taking bigger positions than usual if we had something showing movement upward.  To work this strategy which includes adding on a sign of a move to a starter, we also said we expected to sell sooner..meaning a change of tide and we would bail most of our position.  We did this with ABM yesterday and today with NVTL. We are not giving up profits in this market and there is no such thing (not that we have such) and that is a stop loss.  We sold a sizeable amount on the 2pm swoon but think this will play todays highs soon again.  In some respects it easier to trade now as you are concentrating on fewer positions and can see a move begin to materialize and therefore add or subtract in a more timely manner. 

Today, we picked up FSLR again. It closed in NCH territory and is one of the few stocks that has regained all that it lost this past week.


DJIM #11 2007

You can't tell traders, investors,  'March Madness' is about to tip's been center court since February 27th and there is no Cinderella story emerging.   Actually, she went to a 'Rally ball'  last week with a tall checklist but all she had was change it seems.  She wasn't the only one.  Simply,  you can summarize last week as a week of high expectations for bargain hunting without a lot of buying.  By Friday volume had dried up, there is simply too much apprehension in the players even after 3-4 days of a reversal. Three days of a rally mustering up barely 1% of a gain in the indexes is little to get excited up.   As we've been saying this bleeding might need time to stop, right now the traders are looking under the band aid for reassurance the cut has healed.  Simply they are re-bandaging all over again just to be sure it doesn't bleed again with an unexpected news blurb.  Somehow the trust has to come back,  maybe we will just consolidate till earning season blooms again.   Hey, it's only a few weeks away till April kicks in, yet we are still finishing of the first Quarter of  '07 with micro/small caps reporting that are giving some play (JSDA #99 IBD).   If there is anything to look forward to, it is a fresh Q of potential plays to feed on.  Considering this is what DJIM is centered around...we've got more hope and can live through this corrective activity more than others playing a different niche.  Oh yeah and one thing is if you don't follow our, "No holding into earnings" stance..maybe you should at least follow it now until this correction subsides. The guillotine is sharper than usual in this sort of market as seen by the PSPT,GMKT beheadings last week....... Be cool, be selective is the daily memo here.  The momo trader needs something, even if they are in rehab at the moment.  One play that seems to be gaining traction again is the Solar play, actually this slowly should become a longer term play as this area is not going to go away.  Sooner than later owning one of these and putting it away under a pillow might be the best strategy.   We are playing both again and have written about them in detail as to their differences.  TSL closed much better than FSLR on Friday but FSLR still had some higher price buying AH's.  Right now, it's a game of jumping tracks as one or the other is providing opp's for a nice gain and we are doing the same a lot of the time.

SNCR, finished well Friday and is one of the few we had selected earlier last week. A timely move just after mentioned in the forum of setting up nicely showed promise at the close.

Early in the week on the Journal we pointed out HDNG KBW UEIC HURC as ones we are looking at first at that moment for a trade. This still holds into next week as one or two moved nicely ( KBW 34-38 ) and most are holding up well or setting up for a move up in a good market follow through day.  With oil stabilizing over $60 recently, BTJ is definitely one that looked best late last week and should be closely followed or traded.  SYNL had a nice week and CYNO is the IBD in America profile this weekend.   As far as JSDA, we'll see..we're not very patriotic it  Comparisons to HANS is like comparing Footballs across the border...the NFL to the CFL..not even on the actual product or earning, but the ability for JSDA to ever trade anything close to how HANS did.  These are the stocks we will continue to closely follow and possibly trade on Monday.  Of course... a wake up call from overseas mkts will play a role on which side of the bed we wake up on tomorrow.

OEH, our lodging lux play before the meltdown made NCH Friday as merger, speculation activity is foaming again in the sec.



and possibly more churning ahead of us!    Despite the fact we are green today, we are very much in a churning mode.    As far as the overall picture is concerned, this is considered healthy.     We churn churn until we see a clear break out or break down of the major indices.    If we break out, we would know exactly where the resistance is but if we break down, it's hard to gauge the exact support line.   Of course, you can always argue that last July's low may be the area but we feel that low may be too low for the current market environment.  All this market gibberish does not mean there were not a load of tradable opportunities from this weekends DJIM#11 and that is all we care about end of day!.

So what's happening with the market these days?   We think many chasers have the answer and we are sure they are having a blast taking advantage of some of the headlines there over the past 2 weeks.  We have said its a traders market the past 10 trading days, it's a scalpers market and this all most use the service for.   Does that mean we all have to switch our strategy now to a day trader mentality and chase the headlines one at a time?   Of course, we were all going a little brain dead sitting in a lot of cash, but it does not mean you switch your strategy and start going for the headlines just because you are a little bored.  If you're not at work...Have an early drink and then a nap but don't switch your style!. is not for scalpers, headline chasers.  Scalping, flipping headlines is not for the majority of subscribers here and this type of trading is not for us.    For us, we just can't see ourselves going through that transformation and there were many lessons learned from the past that we have to stick to what we are good at, more so now than ever.     Besides, there's really no art or longevity to trading briefing type of plays unless you have no trading life or life and can address and listen to 300 "peeps" alerts all day..then read and then be ready to jump in and out.   We prefer to use our own imagination and our own opinions.  It helps as any news wire, but it's not something we need or would ever live by to trade.  Also,  it's two of us against 300 of them in an office and we still get out enough winners to live off before they get to profiling them.  That has been shown way too many times over the past few years.  Anyways...We gave a weekend hit list for Monday as to what we'll be looking to trade.  You didn't need a Briefing for these moves, all you needed was a "lead' from DJIM;).. FSLR+11.2%  TSL+9.2%  CYNO +8.45% BTJ +7.5% JSDA+9% or give a "one damn eye " on AFAM when it had traded 100 shares premarket at 20.90 and then later to a high of $23.90.   Nobody is expected and we don't expect to catch all these moves, but if you had a small hit list as given last night... you should have had a stellar day just by going after one or two.   What we are giving is what we are looking at, if you don't want to look at it and give it some attention when its behaving well..meaning it's green and getting interest....well then you're missing the point of DJIMstocks.  You should not be looking for other opportunities if these are in front of you already and working.  We become oblivious to other names when the going is this good.  All efforts and capital are with what is working!!!.  No time for laggards!!!  No time to look for other plays.     OK...   We weren't fans of JSDA and said last night we'll see...well we saw very good interest and traded it but still are not waving the Maple Leaf flag.  Still fresh on our minds as per Journal and IBD listing and therefore this should've been on top of your trading list as well for the day. End of day we are empty of it, but will play it again. No flag burning, we will just wait to see if it has more in its tank. 

So how do we approach this market then?    We are still finding some of those earning plays that we've been covering for a while and singling them out as our trading candidates.   Here are some more...

BTJ, could it be that ppl are discovering this stock for the first time and trading it like a momo or could it just all be IBD fever?    We think it may be a little of both and we are definitely leaning more toward that IBD thesis and as pointed out last night the steadiness of Oil over $60 recently..helps!.   Yes, it's ranked as #1 IBD100 over the weekend and the reaction today is very good, especially given the fact how much it has climbed last week.    At this point, we have to caution that being IBD #1, this stocks's fundamental may be thrown out the window and momentum/trading will be taking the dominant force behind the action.   Watch the action more and don't ever let your feeling of "how much the stock should be worth" get in the way of making proper entry/exit point as the stock behaves along.

FSLR TSL, this pair has definitely been our favourite solar plays, or rather, the only solar plays we trade during the last few days.    Again, we'd favour FSLR slightly more here as TSL is more prone to "gap downs" off weakness in Asia.    Also, we are pointing out that these two are mainly eps driven, and this is the reason why these two have the biggest momentum among the solar space.    See, the action still comes down to earning.     So are we going to play any other solar laggards?   At this point, we aren't even considering touching any other solar plays b/c in the world of stock market, only the best get rewarded.   In other words, there's no second or third place when it comes to naming a best play.     We have been trading these ones aggressively on the long side but we have been doing it with smaller sizes than we would normally do in a favourable market condition.    

EML, this little one made a new closing high but we aren't willing to give it a hard chase b/c of the volume and still just hold a part of position from earning time.  The point of pointing this one out is that odds are always on your side when you are stuck with an "eps story" as oppose to other kind of plays. Just look how far SYNL, EML have come since being DJIM insertions last Q. If you want to tuck a stock in a drawer these thinsters with earnings provide a safe play early on.  AFAM and EML are very similar, except AFAM has a history of holding its big gains better.  AFAM made a revenue high of 26.32mln and reported a high EPS Q of 26c vs. 16 YOY.  We held a small piece through to close after taking advantage in some of the 3 pt move intraday.  Simply, we don't want DJIM filled with these plays at this time, it does not mean you can't put it in a drawer.  It just should not be the focus of so many members as EML started to become at one point early on.


What Bracket?

Seems the East, Midwest, West and South brackets are more important than the Trading bracket game to many today...or did we just need a breather and some caution before tomorrows CPI?.....or maybe too many were hypnotized by the Level 2 trading on  Man, we're turning that damn thing off..promise!..another day of that and we'll need medication to get over the spins besides a stint at rehab.  That was definitely the 'play' the last two days doubling since yesterdays mention.  Either way there was some follow through on the indices and many DJIM small caps performed well and that is what we are taking into Friday.

ASTI, it really had no chance today for more gains as the Solar plays FSLR, TSL fell out of bed at the open and never got up. If ASTI starts to act like the others it will be a good sign of recognition in the space and we wouldn't mind that all.  The ups or the downs, as long as it is bunched in with the familiar names.  Sooner than later the market cap comparisons to those bigger names will get this noticed even more.  Considering the day it had yesterday, todays dead solar dead day and being down this much is nothing to a low float stock.  Another thing is to not forget the price of the deal.  It was big 23% of shares and with a big name (NHY),but it was $5.77.  This deal, this stock needs to digest the gains over the placement price.  Give it time, the smart ones will probably be accumulating this over next little while on any dips. Also... a morning note today from Lazard had some nice price targets on the solar stocks, one of which was a $65 target on FSLR.

By the open tomorrow after the CPI is released, we will know what to do with these names.  If we can look forward to any buying before the weekend it is on these familiar DJIM stocks, HDNG UEIC CYNO BTJ and AFAM.  Oh yeah, blast from recent past CCF is almost there too, but we'd prefer to be trading something more liquid now.   All these EPS stocks are looking pretty good as they are at highs (HDNG AFAM) or looking for a sign to get at one.  At this point we have small pieces of each and will look to add on those showing momentum...if momentum shows its pretty face.

We are working with our host Squarespace scanning DJIM postings to see why a small percentage of you are not getting 100% of the posts. Thank you for co-op and please let us know by email if this is still occurring as we go along.



DJIM #12  2007

For the week, the indices consolidated and despite a reversal Friday there were a few new plays emerging. 'But'..considering we still don't have any indication of where the market will blow, the same strategy holds going into the trading week as we've discussed numerous times.  What you like to do is to hold stocks that are strong when the market turns like it did Friday.  We made a few buys Friday and for the most part they continued strong into the close.

DXPE, might have made it over the hump with its earning.  We've been following DXPE since its first earning surprise below $10 and it kind of feels like it might become a tradable play once again after a long stay in the house of boredom.  Reported .68 vs. 43c/ Rev 79mln vs. 55mln.  What we like is the sequential growth!.   After a couple of flat sequential Q's, this one proved DXPE has some growth left in its tank and that's what you want if you hope momo traders will start looking at it again.  Anyways, it's good to see there might be another play besides BTJ in this sector that fits into DJIM's mold.

HNSN was a nice quick pickup for those buying, not shorting in the $19's for a quick and furious run to over $21 mid day. This is a medical device player that we've traded before and it seems to be picking up some noise again.  This was a perfect example of a stock wanting new highs.  The nice open and then the pullback where you can load up as it starts to move back up.  That's what we did adding to the starter position and blowing past the initial highs.  Patience.  We've kept some but are not wasting 10% trades without taking them profits on the trading position we acquired during the move.  Oh yeah...Seems Cramer thinks its the next

GLDN , we noted Thursday night to keep it up there on your trading list despite a cool first day on earnings.  It pulled off a 5+% move, one of the best on the day and now sits over 9ema.  What impressed us was the volume, end of day it had volume it had not seen since being a DJIM pick up in the $30'S.  We'll see if this means more upside soon enough.

AFAM, our little pick up recently made a quiet debut on IBD #77.

Solar plays will be interesting to watch this week after gettin' a beatin' Friday after some broker comments.  We'd still look to FSLR, especially after IBD's profile this weekend.  Remember, we mentioned CYNO last weekend as an IBD play and the follow up big day Monday.  We think this is a little different as FSLR falls in with many names , while a CYNO was less known and not really thrown in with other names in its sector, so it could move on its own.

For other plays we are following/ or trading, see Thursdays Journal.  Most of those names including HDNG held up pretty good. Some other notables are in charts like NVTL, which just keeps ticking slowly along.


all is well....

That's what most people wanted to feel today probably.   The truth is, we are still working off the ugly damage from couple of weeks ago.    In this case, churning is good and more up days and less down days within a contained range make a good setup for future rally down the road.   Meanwhile, when the index is churning away, we ought to be catching some opportunities and keeping an alerted stance at the same time.    Today.. definitely feels like one of those relaxed days and we welcome that change of pace.   Some stocks we are following...

DXPE,  yes it made it back onto the IBD100 list and this one has had a history of being on and off the infamous list.    Is this a big deal anymore?   We think it's not nearly as big of a deal as it once was couple of years ago.   In fact, the IBD play has toned down so much over the time that we find alot of better plays that aren't IBD associated these days.    The float is one thing that keeps DXPE interesting and as long as there's interest in this one, we are willing to stay in and trade it on the long side, aggressively.

HDNG, why this one still isn't on the IBD100 list while some other "crap" got on is still a mystery to us.    Well, IBD or not, the action still looks very healthy and it notched another high today.

FSLR TSL ASTI, a firm had negative comments on the sector premarket and therefore these names under performed the market.  ASTI has its own issues to get over, the private placement price.  FSLR got a lift from the IBD article and it feels like a less volatile bet at this moment.    We are keeping our eyes closely on these and will re-enter when they gain some momentum to the upside again.

CYNO/ JSDA, both stocks gapped at the open off the positive market and held the gap till the close. We sold off some of the CYNO move, the JSDA we weren't holding.  We'll keep an eye on both for another try.

VIP/ ROS,  it seems that some stocks just won't go away and these pair notched a new closing high today off pretty good volumes.    Yes these are foreign stocks that can be volatile at times.    However, when the momentum clearly shows one direction, this type of move can be very rewarding as well.  If you didn't get in or trade them today, we'd pay attention to the charts as these Russian telcos made not the prettiest of candles giving up quite a bit off the top.  This included MBT, to a lesser degree GLDN.  Be patient for indication this move is real now.

Overall, we feel that market is doing a pretty good job of working out of its corrective phase.   At this point, nobody can say for sure how long this corrective phase will last.    One thing is for sure though is that there's still tons of cash on the sideline and ppl won't hesitate twice to jump into a hot sector, story stock, or a general market rally.    We'll just have to make sure that we get in at the right time to get our money's worth.


What's next?

The indices poked their neck out today and broke out of their trading range from the last little while.    As we were saying yesterday, market was looking for a catalyst and today we got one.    Does that mean that we are ready to challenge the old high next week?   Ah ha, if market is predictable like that, then we all should be running multi billion dollar hedge funds.    The truth is that we just had a good old relief rally today and what comes afterward is usually trickier than what most people would expect.    One good thing about the reaction of the fed decision today is that we are that much farther away from the recent low.   Today can be used as a good indication that we've just had our bottom for this correction.   The sub-prime issues are being sorted out and worked out slowly and many institutions now have a realistic expectation of what to expect from some of the firms involved in the sub-prime lending.    This is good news!   Uncertainty tend to raise fear and certainty raises optimism.     Seasonally, we are ready to kick off another earning season.     What?   It seemed like we've just finished our last earning season.    Yup, this gig is literally all year around and right now we are back to focus on finding earnings plays that fit into our criteria and trading theme.      In a way, we are kind of glad that the big drop happened before the earning season. Does anyone else feel like "we just got rid of a monkey off our back"?   In plain words, now that we just had a correction, bears can all suck up and go away.   Hopefully this is the case but we do need confirmation from market action during the next little while.     The best case scenario for this market is to inch up slowly and digest any big market gains like today with time.    The absolute last thing we need is for this market to go up in a few straight days and then to get smack down hard which will for sure shatter investors' confidence.

Now onto our small cap land....  When the market is in a good mood generally, the small caps always tend to get busier and see an influx of funds.  Here are some of the stocks we are noticing today...

CSV,  we have to crown this one tonight as it joined the 25%+ gainer club today.   This one is such a sleeper that despite the fact it doesn't generate any buzz among the momentum traders, but it generated 25% during the last month or so.   And do we even have to remind people that last few weeks hasn't been the most friendly to many investors. The same goes for HTC, the Euro Telecom which has produced 25% too. The reason we bring these up tonight is after today, it is time to look around at past DJIM stocks and see which survived through the turmoil best.  It is probably best to start doing some homework and expanding your tradable watchlists.   Another reason is just a reminder that despite the volatile stocks we mostly cover there are plenty of quality crawlers that work for the longer term investor.  Last Q, we had EML, SYNL, AMIE's and this Q the CSV and HTC have already stood out.

HURC HDNG,  yes keep on going and make those new highs.    Market really owes those two as the market environment was not friendly when these two came out with stellar earning report. UEIC falls into this boat as well.

FSLR TSL, we wish these two had done a little better prior to today.   Nevertheless, whatever it takes to kick-start the momentum is fine by us.

SIMO SNCR UEIC,  had new closing highs and we are definitely gonna look more on the tech side of the plays as the earning seson goes on.  SNCR was probably towed by AAPL today.

AMAG, we used to trade this back in early 06' with great success under a different symbol, it's a streaky stock and if you get on the right the right time this one can be quite the winner. It's in late-stage development for iron deficiency related anemia in chronic kidney disease and that is the speculation part.  We started very small and will see if the small float and big short interest can dance with the Deutsche Bank $100 target put on it today. Wait for confirmation of a turn here before taking on a play like this or just start very small and make sure you have many more plays before it.

Folks, market definitely seems to turn for the better last couple of days and especially today.   With the earning season coming up, we feel like we should get right back into it 100% and pick up where we left off.   This doesn't mean that we are gonna be committing all of our capital.  It just means that we are gonna be committing 100% of our time and focus in finding trading opportunities for the next little while.    Hopefully we'd get some really nice plays that'll make up for some of the lost time that we incurred from earlier this month.  Just remember, we might need to curb our enthusiasm as traders soon after a day like this and that simply means taking some profits before kicking it up again.



and not the crispy burned was hot in here!.  It doesn't take more than a 60 watt bulb to tan these Toronto boyz but nothing gets them hotter than a few of their Solar plays movin' and grovin'.   Rumor has it the market took the day off as many had expected following yesterdays blow out afternoon.   Well,  we didn't notice as this was one those 'oblivious' to the market indices days as our closely followed had a helluva day.  DJIM's gig is to get you following what we trade,  the tedious research can wait till we throw out a new stock to consider ...we'll find what you can trade over and over again and as noted last night some you can store away as well.    Recently, we said it might be wise to put some shares of solar plays away in a shoe box and not worry about trading them in and out as this story is not leaving us for a while....Today..was a perfect example of the potential in these names.  Solar stuff is nothing new as we've traded the WFR SPWR'sin 06, but we like the FSLR, ASTI, TSL to concentrate on in 07'!.   For the average investor or trader to be,  there is no extra plays you need.   We're full time and it's plenty for us.   Until a secondary play catches the same fever as our current plays..we won't go there!.  We welcome the next FSLR...when it comes!... are members are the greedy  We 're not going to push it to $10, we were just below $8 yesterday.  We said when to expect 'us' to come in the last few days.  The script was written and we kept in touch all the way through.  Still...more than one opportunity existed today!.  We've talked about the day if ASTI catches the solar fever and gets bunched in with our other names.  We wanted that!.   If you begin to think like us, the early action in TSL and FSLR should have made you think it might spill to ASTI or at least hope for such and therefore been watching closely.   If you consider our mentions of a potential powerful  'flag' move that ASTI was creating yesterday.  Whats a flag?.  In laymen terms, it's a pennant of sorts in some look at the chart and the tight range (spread hi-low) yesterday was a move in the making and today there was a catalyst to use to solar it up...the TSL and FSLR to set the bugger off.    So there was two trades in ASTI today.  One was the piggyback ride of the solars to the first leg to the $8.70-80's and the second which we spoke of the last few days.    We had numerous emails, "is the love" and we responded on the forum that you will feel and see it.  The volume was a measly 700k at this point.  The love did come and ASTI added 2 million more shares to the volume end of day and a high of $9.70 was hit on the move we were looking for.   Maybe after 17% on the day gain, we should not concern ourselves about the close.  Sure, we would have liked the highs to be taken out end of day, but 17% is plenty and enough to spread the ASTI name around for a little while....30 cents off the top is nada!.  Maybe we should also accept this is not a Baskin Robbins stock, as in flavor of the day, small float momo stock to run EFUT, FFHL style and accept this is a longer term investment like Norsk (NHY) thinks it is by picking up all those shares.

FSLR, what can we say? ...our fave ain't going to the doghouse after a NCH.  TSL, a top 3 solar here..still has some catching up to do but definitely played its part today.   When we started DJIM, we talked about catching points and watching them add of 3 points on these two and the ASTI play and you should have a nice glow about you tonight!.

OEH, this has turned quietly into a pride and joy type here.  It is these stock picks that we really like to hit on the head.  Also VTRU,  a earnings and takeover play for DJIM this Q was taken out today for $48 or so.   Well, we already saw higher than todays trade in VTRU after we started covering it,  so today just nailed the trade idea for DJIM.    OEH was here first as a trade that busted out in the 40's after an alert and later it turned into a takeover play.  See Alerts in preview section.   This was confirmed a few weeks ago by Briefingcom and today it hit the press big time.  We got a little lucky buying it again yesterday........well, maybe.......when you look for strength, you sometimes get rewarded and we did today.    We buy NCH's and OEH was flying yesterday as noted in the morning forum before the market even had a chance to suck up the Bernanke.   Looks we don't need to stay at a HMIN at $16 bucks a night now!  We've kept some and traded this 6% move today and think our OEH can fetch some more room service.  Our mini bar needs re-stocking after todays DJIM stock ride.

KBW, the financials were running hard yesterday afternoon after the FED talk and if you didn't want to dish out about $200 bucks for some GS, we gave the forum an alternative DJIM play at $35.  GS exhausted today, KBW ...which was available for under $35 yesterday... closed at the days high at $37.08.  No easier play for a few shares out there.   We had a laggard as in one not many still associate with a financial play and it proved to be a good bet for a few points.

Where do we stop?;)

BTJ, our oil play..up 2 bucks-6% to a NCH.

CYNO hit 27.66 and still made a NCH,  NVTL almost to mid 15's and looks to solidify the $15's,  HDNG another NCH.  Some others had little spikes like SIMO and GLDN before giving it up, but they've had a few real nice days to follow up on.   Only real loss was a measly $1.20 in HURC. The few that were red, closed less than 1% off.   You can't argue with what our closely followed did today in a boring market day.   Last night, we said you might want to take some profits as this market digests yesterdays afternoon roll.   If you didn't today with this golden opportunity while the market lagged DJIM stocks....consider some tomorrow if profit taking Friday comes.   Still,  this weekend should provide some merger activity that has been shelved before the FED action yesterday.

We dabbled in some CRZ and to a lesser degree OYOG.  CRZ, asset management co' is one we watched before and it reported last night, Crystal River Captial reports Q4 EPS of $0.57 vs $0.07 yr ago; revs rise 69% to $59.1 mln . We like the way it traded and will look at a break over $28 to add.  OYOG is coming to high today and is involved in the oil and gas biz.  It's float is all of 4mln shares and when it comes at a price of $60-70 bucks, you can expect some big spreads.  We'll see if it continues to new highs before adding to a very small piece we hold now.



DJIM #13  2007

As we head into another week of trading, we begin to wonder who is doing the 'blowing'. was like hurricane gusts to propel this market.  All this despite oil going back to $62 and a few other world issues that didn't dampen the buying during the week.   Someone ' big' wants this market up...might the earnings and guidance coming up be a reflection of this enthusiasm or we just being set up for a hard thrashing at the awaiting tops???.  The timing seems quite interesting as we approach another earnings season.  Should be interesting.  Our strategy remains the same as we take this day to day, attacking opportunities as they come before us.  Last week was a hoot on many trading fronts....we hope we get a third of it this week.

ASTI provided the speculative trading. We tried to walk our strategy on DJIM cause ASTI seemed to have a chance of catching momo.  This momo can be a powerful thing and could also be a dangerous thing.  We've done the same with EFUT, FFHL giving in depth thoughts as it trades along.  What momo brings is also greed as all of a sudden 20% in a few days is just not enough.  We gave our next entry point as to when we were expecting a break and some momo and then a heads up premarket Friday to watch that good ole' Mr. Greed as the stock gapped and gave you an opportunity to pocket the gap winnings.  We said our script was written to that point, this means Mr.Greed was not going to look over our shoulder the rest of the day.  How will it trade this week?. Who knows but this story will have ample opportunities to trade in and out in the future.  We'll be there in size again but for now we'll hold a small position only.

OEH,  provided the long term DJIM thinking coming to fruition with a 3bln price tag attached. If you didn't take a position on this speculation we talked about a few months ago, it shouldn't have stopped you from buying and profiting nicely in the last 3 days of trading.   It still gave a 2-3 pt day Friday after we pointed out in the forum that the price some are expecting could be higher.  We've held quite a bit into weekend hoping to wake up to a buyout on merger Monday. This is a safer type of greed as we look for a few more points.

The big gains last week came from the Oil/Gas equipment/field services etc and DJIM was there with BTJ and its 13+% week.  Here, we also have DXPE which looks to be building up for a move higher.  If you are going deeper into this sec/energy, we threw out OYOG, which IBD says this weekend  is within a buying range.

On the Russian front, GLDN which was already a go here in last weekends Journal went from low 52's to a few cents shy of $57. But the play mentioned Monday night, might be VIP going forward. Why?. you remember how this went last Q when we took on MBT and then said we could get a spill into VIP and other Russian telcos. Guess what, MBT put out very good earning and this should be a hint of what to expect from VIP's earning.  VIP closed with a NCH Friday.  Also... one of DJIM early plays, WBD made a nice run late in the week to close at NCH and should be potential playlisted.

As far as Solar, we said last weekend they'd be interesting to watch and as it turned out to trade.  FSLR checked in with a 7-8 points during the week.  It tired some Friday, but maybe that was expected as profit taking sunk in after a big week. finished up there on the chart and remains our favorite solar story/stock to trade.

AFAM, NVTL and others are pretty clear over on BT's charts.

CRZ AMAG, we are watching to uncork a few dollars into but we need to see more action to add.

**Remember to visit website and check into DJIM Trader Alerts-Comments to activate email delivery by pressing Subscribe on top of page.  See forum note on this subject as we will be using the link for Alerts- Comments starting Monday.



Back and forth..

One big day is being followed by a so so day.  Simply, there was no catalyst today for the market.   We'll take that as we wait for earning season to get into gear.  By now, we are hoping everyone has gotten used to the idea of selling some positions early in the day to lock in the profit and look for opportunities late in the day for a flip next morning/ day.  This is no time to watch 3 and 4 pt drops and watch your profits disappear in plays like TSL USAP when you should be building a earnings nest of cash to have on hand.   Come back to these plays.   Call it a trading system if you wish and it has worked well during the last while.  When earnings start flowing this is when we will get back to the more usual type of trade. We have officially kicked off earning season tonight with AA reporting and it looks a little ho-hum to fuel a 9th straight day of highs for DJIA.  The market will be focused on earning reports next few weeks and so shall we.    Some standout action today...

FSLR,  solar stocks taking turns leading the sector and today's FSLR's turn.   It finished up over $60 and did not give up most of its gain today.   Again, we have to point out that a big point gainer in these solar stocks may not guarantee a nice follow through the next day.    We are going to be watcing the first 20 min. of trading closely tomorrow to see which way it'll lean before we decide to lean into it.

ASTI, this is a stock which we had skepticism earlier in the day but stock proved its worthiness toward the end.   Again, we just don't want to draw the conclusion too early on a "potential" setup untill the setup actually materializes.      What's the difference adding at $9.40 early in the morning compare to adding at $9.60 near the close?   In the first case, you are running into a possible scenario that stock fakes a b/o and may head back down.   In the second case, you ensure that the stock closes near the high and prints a nice candle on the chart which gives a much better probability of a potential follow through tomorrow.   The end difference is about few hours in waiting and 20 cents in price.    To us, we'd pay for better probability and this is what we meant by buying at higher price if the action can firmly confirm the setup.

SLP, this one had EPS released earlier today and stock just strengthened throughout the day.   We are playing this one b/c of the reaction to its earning and its recent trading history of being one to play.    This one can get some serious momentum and today's price/volume shows the kind of potential it can get.    Go with the action.   Trade what you see from the action, not from the press release.  Again, this one can get volatile so we are treating this one as a speculative play only. We mentioned this one in the forum as something we're looking at 15.60ish, a quick trade ensued for some to 16.48high.

GMRK /MFW, we added some back on both of these moves and will be looking for further strength next few days.

NIHD, another NCH at 79.37.

GRZ URZ, guess we are spreading our wings a bit, maybe it is the ease to get 15%-20% on these cheapie plays quite quickly. GRZ was intro'd mid 6's, so it was a quick $1+ ride to 7.60 today.   URZ, we intro'd last night and just want to follow up as it was up a quick 6% today before giving it up.  So did  Still.. Uranium is hot, it rose to the highest levels since '86 and was up over $2+ a pound last week after having a big '06 when it was rising .70c a week.  Nuke fuel is in demand and if we can catch a cheapie for a ride here and there, we'll try again!.  There is a bullish macro future here, so why not.   Again..these plays are speculative in our DJIM books and not where we are concentrating on making money.


Spotlight on Solars...

Some of us really wished that the trading day would last just a little big longer today.     Some of us really wished that we would repeat the same day tomorrow.   Some of us really wished that we could've started the day over so we could've better prepared for today's action.   In any case, today's undeniably a great day for the all who have been following today's winners here.   It just felt like payday, a culmination to a few highlighted DJIM stocks.     We definitely agree today was spectacular and did what we could to preserve the outcome.    Here are some of the plays today...

TSL, solar stocks stole the show today and we think this one is by far the best deal momentum wise.   Today's rise may not truly justify its presence since the break out started essentially 23 pts ago.    The question now is how high this one will go and we'll just have to monitor this one closely and with some care.

JASO, the only regret we had on this one is that maybe we should've played it aggressively and from the get go last Thursday.   But that's in the past and we just have to look at what's in store for tomorrow.   This one had a pretty big 3 day run-up which we think is not sustainable and a pullback could be imminent.   The only saving grace is that if the whole group gets some crazy momentum again, then the pullback may not come right away.  If a stock doesn't get a pullback, all you could do is go with the momentum, especially if a whole sector is running as was the case early and often today.

FSLR, in terms of percentage, this one lagged behind the others.  Funny to say when a stock finishes 6% up.  Nonetheless, this one pulled a NCH(new closing high) and we are expecting some follow through for tomorrow.

SOLF, lastly, put this one on the list too even though this is nothing more than a sympathy play. Glad to see this one pop for a few of our readers who have kept up on it.

JSDA, we were actually a little worried about this one's action today as it seemed a little climatic, or toppy as some would call it.   We are not saying that this one is done by a long shot, merely suggesting that a pullback is desperately needed.   We think that odds favours a pullback here so we let go most of our shares.    This one is heavily shorted so we think any pullback will be violent but short lived.  Of course, we are using the chart to determine the outcome as it rolls along.

URZ UXG, we took some off the table but added some URZ later on today.  Many are trying to call a top to this Uranium bubble.  We'll keep blowing air into for now.

SILC, we added some today to our buy in late last week. A NCH here

A few more to keep on top your play/watch list tomorrow...

EML, we put this back on watch a weekend ago because of the potential DOD contracts in '07 going to Armor Holdings.  Today, it closed with a NCH and got a little volume.

CYNO, pulled off a NCH, lets see if it holds here before adding.

RCCC FCSX, both of these we added to our watchlist today and are eyeing for a pullback for an entry.   These are earning plays that have had a great reaction.  With the big winners the past few days, a few earning stocks haven't got the attention from us that they deserved.


Spotlight on Solars, Part II

Climatic, climatic and climatic!   This is how we described action with TSL, JSDA and JASO toward the end yesterday.    Looking back, we felt that it was definitely a right thing to sell/ blow out our positions into the strength and leaving home with little to no position yesterday.    Was today's early downgrade merely a coincidence or was today's decline inevitable?   Whatever the conclusion anyone can come up with, we think odds did favour a pullback based on yesterday's action.    Momentum stocks tend to move up in a violent fashion and they can come down just as violently.    As traders who trade a lot of this kind of stocks, we have to respect the beasts' potential and act accordingly.  

For us, in case those are not familiar with our style.    We sell momentum stocks aggressively when they reach a climatic phase in our view..   We also sell most if not all of our position if stocks breach 9 ema or in an attempt of doing so.   This is not be mistaken with stocks that climb 20% for us and then start fading.   We do not wait for these to come to 9ema, we leave with most of gains in tact.   Use CIMT as an example here.   A $3.70-80 buy in, climbing to 4.60-70's...we do not wait for it to come down and hit 9ema like yesterday.  Look at it this way, if a stock you bought at $ goes to $46-47.   Will you let it slide back to $ 41's?.   We hope not , so look at a cheapie stock the same way.   These are some automatic reflexes we preach as part of our trading discipline.   Trading is solely about preserving most of the gains out of a play while cutting the losses as early as possible.    We use a rather conservative approach when dealing with these super momo stocks.   Here is a rundown...

TSL JASO SOLF FSLR, so now the stocks have pulled back and what do we do now?    We'd be eyeing 9 ema for the support and to see if the pullback can stop there for a potential quick rebound.   Otherwise, we'd be eyeing yesterday's high as the potential b/o point for re-entry.    The one thing we don't want to do now is to enter a trade here, where they closed today.   This is what we feel is no man's land and it just offers nothing but uncertainty.

JSDA, this is the exact same situation as solars and to a more extreme degree.   We really wanted to see where this stock would settle once the volume settles down.   Again, going in and picking an artificial bottom may as well mean that you are treating this game like a craps table.  

RCCC, this one held up really well but we think better entry pts are still ahead of us.  Others behaving SYNL, MFW.  Eyeing GROW, TRT some.

All this can change as lots of market moving co's. are reporting tonight , so we'd see how the market is going to react to their earnings tomorrow.   Unless the momentum is clear within a particular sector, we'd do what we normally do and pick one earning play at a time and highlight only those that are worthy of DJIM.


DJIM #27 2007

One thing is for sure, the only thing that can seem to wake people up in this market is "earnings"!    The past week was filled with some dramatic volatility.   In the early part of the week it seems that market was ready to give up.    We had back to back days of strong opening and a very weak close.    Both indices were flirting around 50 ema and it just looked that shaky.    Come into rescue toward the end of the week is of course the prospect of the earning season.   The fed decision is once again a none  factor in this market this time of the year.    We feel many people are sitting on the sideline waiting for some good earning opportunities to get into.     From the big cap earnng front, RIMM definitely sets the tone as well as the benchmark for others to follow.   20% gain in one day given RIMM's market cap is still a very big deal, regardless of its momentum status.   To put this into perspective, GOOG has to gain over 100 bucks in one day just to gain 20% and that'd be just something unthinkable at this point of GOOG's growth cycle.

So what are we really looking forward to at this point?   Earnings, of course!   The earning season usually starts with Alcoa kicking off and that comes around second week of July.   Our game plan is the same as before, go after the winners early and aggressively.   If the apparent "winner" does not get the kind of attention we wanted, we simply move on for our next kill.    With earning season, we'd usually be busy enough to trade multiple earnings winners at same time.  So rest assured, if one doesn't work out, there'd always be the other one or two that will work out.    Now the key in trading that kind of strategy, is to stay with the winner, at all time.      We had a little taste of the earnings drive last few weeks from the likes of LPHI KMGB TNH FSLR RCCC TBSI... etc.   All of them have returned substantial gain given our usual time frame.      So be prepared and be ready, both financially and mentally, because the next 3 to 5 weeks of trading is probably the only trading matters in the summer.

Here are some stocks that are worth reviewing over the past week....

PENX, one thing about this earning winner is that it never had this kind of volume in its past quarters.   Perhaps, this quarter's number is just that good, or it is the fact that it's in a sector people really go gun ho about.   In any case, we the momentum traders may also have something to do with its latest volume surge.    Well folks, this baby is in play and that's all you need to know.     Remember our favourite strategy,  if you missed the first runup lets say from $24 to whatever price it stalls, the first pullback should always be bought, aggressively!   We are fortunate that we caught majority of the move so far but the rest of our game plan is still the same.   Just because we did well the first run up doesn't mean that we can slack off on the second time around.    So keep a close eye on this one and trade on the long side aggressively.    Always put the 9 ema up and imprint it in your mind to know where it is at all time.    Nobody wants to miss another RCCC or LPHI type of move again.    The funny thing is, at this point, we don't think people even care about their actual eps number anymore.   There's really no need to extrapolate their number to calculate a "proper" valuation price or assign P/E or whatever.    Know this, this one is in play and professional traders like us and others are trading sizable shares to drive this one higher.

KMGB, almost a month ago, this one came out with a strong report.   One month later, this one is roughly 30% higher, and it closed with a NCH on Friday.    Ok, we didn't stay in this one the whole one month.   As far as we did, we basically traded two runup.   The first runup was from the initial earning/IBD and second runup, which we are still in it, started couple of days ago as per our alert.    The coming week should be interesting since this one did not make it to IBD100 again but we think this shouldn't be an issue any more.    Float is pretty tiny for this one so as long as the chemical sector is in play, we'd like this one's odds to go much higher.

TNH, speaking of chemical sector, this one is probably the epitome of chemical stocks during the last three months or so.    The recent 10 point drop in one day may set a warning sign of its extended runup but we are still keeping this one as one of our favourite trading stock.   If you look at its chart, it hasn't closed "below" 9 ema ever since the breakout area of $90 and we think as long as this is the case, this one is still relatively safe to play.    The only thing of concern lately is that the volatility is getting to the extreme side of things and it may eventually crack its uptrend completely.

TBSI/DRYS, when shippers move, they move together and we like these two the best.   They both notched a new closing high on Friday and we'd see if this generates a new round of enthusiasm in the coming days.

FSLR/JASO/LDK, so once again solar plays have been hot lately.   Out of all of the solar plays we have touch based before, these three are the closest to their respective all time high.    If anything, we'd be trading among these three when the sector is having a good day.