Ahead of the open, (24-01)

Ahead of Friday’s trade with SPX notching 1315 on SPX, noted the market may meander and not do anything until mid-week/ FOMC date, …“..dip a little or overshoot the resistance some.(10-15 SP handles in either direction)”.  As we close today after a see-saw day, it’s pretty clear the market is pausing the last few days taking in what is an extended January rally.  There is really nothing substantial to take away from today as it was a very slow day with little in the way of catalysts for either side.  The shorts will say the rally is losing momentum and/ or is just fatigued.  It’s a no brainer, it’s a consequence at certain points of a big move, especially when resistance comes into play.  It’s a healthy thing.  Shorts can only back up what they say by putting out fresh positions and there is no proof they have confidence in their words.  Until they can back it up, pullbacks will be shallow and will be bought.

• Away from the broad market picture, small cap earnings got underway with tech continuing to give a brighter picture. The expectation was for not much this Q or next as covered here, but since LLTC, a slew of companies said order books turned up up in the latter part of the Q (late Dec.) as well. The next Q is now exceeding expectations. VMW (strong billings too, good for software in general), VLTR all put in solid reports.

Ahead of the open, (29-06)

Any doubt if the previous day’s morning rally was artificial was answered by the Dow ~170+, SP’s 18 handle drop at its trough.  Any question if it’s a fast traders market was answered by the Dow ~150/ SP+ 15 recovery surge in the last hours off a ‘cancelled Merkel conference’ headline leading to the possibility of a EU deal at hand.   The fact it’s a ‘renters’ ES/ETF market was also evident as single stocks hardly participated in the rally with most coming little off their lows with many ‘growth’ names still off 2-5%..KORS ,FFIV, VMW  just some names at the high end. (MA,  PCLN off 10pts and even AAPL -5pts).  Hardly what you’d call an inspiring tape for the longer than an hour or day.

 

 

...but wait...

  

A deal has really been struck tonight and the euphoria has pushed ES over 1340.  The question on many minds tomorrow will be how long before this shine wears off and we have another anti-climactic moment as we did following Spain’s bailout and Greece’s elections??. Those fading the upside tomorrow on that notion may be in for a surprise.  We discussed only needing a credible deal and at this juncture it seems to be, which should allow the market to end decent on the week, month and Q.   It will be interesting to see how long the short covering lasts and if 'longs' emerge afterwards.  '24-48hr renters' need to go, investors need to show signs of life.. In all, the fact we finally got a surprise out of a EU summit is a positive and it would be a disappointment (and surprise here) if market doesn't end the Q on a good note.

  

The immediate summit need of reducing Spain’s borrowing costs/ sov’ balance sheet woes due to banks debts was ratified with Germany caving in on bond buying.  Italy also gets a lighter set of conditions to reduce its borrowing costs.  Question here is ‘show me the money’ as there is over ~2 trillion of debt in Spain’s /Italy’s sheets and about a ~1/4 of that is in the ESM/EFSF funds.  Overall, this the big surprise with a gift for Ireland who take home a ‘surprise’ cake as well.  Breaking up the sov’/ bank link seems to be broken.  Also, a proposal of direct control covering all banks by a European ‘banking supervision system’ seems to be on track to recap the banks if need be. Still the details need to be seen and analyzed.  This is the first step to the ‘banking union’ expectation discussed here in the past leading up to the summit.

 

All in, a humbling 24hrs for Germany and a celebration for Italy and Spain.  Germany backed into a corner politically by Italy/Spain not signing off on the (small)120bln growth pact until borrowing costs issues addressed and for its football team on the pitch with Italy and Spain up for the Euro cup now this weekend.  As for the markets, it’s time to look at ahead to the ECB on July 5^th and earnings season around the corner.  Yep, that’s how the market works..on to the next!.  Expectation now will rise for ECB rate cuts and some LTRO as ECB should be pleased with the summit results to go ahead with easing measures.  Also, earnings expectations are depressed, thus any surprises (better than feared) and/or signs it’s not that bad should also be a market positive to go with possible ECB actions.

Ahead of the open, 19-07

Market continues its bounce to post EZ Summit highs as micro outduels the macro.  Incidentally, the words ECB, EU summits, sov’ yields…..have not been appeared on these pages since the move from July 13 lows began.  Hopefully this reference to EZ doesn’t jinx things!.  The trough to peak move of over ~45 SP has been off earnings, but also because of the quietness in the EZ.

As far as earnings..

A few faults noted last week and yesterday (lagging higher beta ‘growth’/ SOX) reversed today off the notable INTC report, while missing and lowering guidance INTC traded up 3% and led the SOX to bounce 3% after it hit multi month lows yesterday.  INTC was called notable here prior to report because of the numerous pre-announcements in the sector.  INTC relates and falls into the catagory…“..the turning point for the market will be when bad reports start to turn and go ‘green’.  EMC QCOM  fall into this premise as well.   Bad reports this Q are any that simply don’t beat the watered down consensus estimates already in place.

The other sector causing recent concern was the industrials, especially since CMI’s warnings.  Today HON, GWW  had better than expected earnings.

The third type of report was just a pure good old fashion beating with VMW up 10%, (which helped all the higher beta software, cloud types today)....

..and MLNX  (up 40%) after hours showcased.. ..”A silver lining in the approach, “Sitting back and waiting for ‘surprise outlook’ earning report from single stocks”… is these stocks will likely be handsomely rewarded as traders look for any signs of corporate ‘growth’ life. 

As noted to start the week following good enough bank earnings,…” All of the above factors are elements of a dead cat bounce unless the heavy loaded earnings week ahead is greeted with the same ‘good enough’ sentiment”…is playing out!.   A dead cat bounce has turned into more due to earnings reactions, but the truth still lies in getting over post-summit highs.  The combination of good enough earnings trend seen and quietness in EZ needs to stay on track for this to occur and escape the range binding summer.