January rally on high beta/eco' cyclical sectors/stocks

The market will make a smooth transition into the first week of ’12 with a slew of events, notably global PMI’s..”.  Since eco’ data is the one bright spot, we put a lot of hope in it for 2012.” (END OF 2011)

__________________________________________________________________________________

Daily Journal excerpts: "Trailers of '11" rally recognized early:

Before Market open, Jan. 3:  “Nice start to the year (following Global PMI’s) with a lot of sidelined money, new funds needing to get in the market early ’12”.

BMO, Jan 4:  “This week will continue to be dominated by economic data and may bring late October highs ~1285 into play”.. Some of the reasons to like the tape action is the breath. The number of new highs was positive as was the bid for higher beta sectors (materials/commodities/financials.  The largest trailers of ’11 (SP 500 stocks) were the ones getting the best bid.

“In all, quite a bullish day for the short term.”

BMO, Jan 5 :  “Market is about the QE (LTRO etc.) going on in Europe, not these daily ‘peripheral’ stories.  We need to remain cognizant of the Eurozone headlines, but it shouldn’t be the deal breaker in making a trading decision, right now”… “positive bias- sentiment here.”

BMO, Jan 6:    “While the EU Bank indexes sink across the pond this week, the US financials/banks lead the morning equity bounces is the 3rd consecutive day of financials making the Daily Journal (some sort of record), which began as a note of buying in 2011 largest trailers ie. BAC, C”… 

BMO, Jan 9:  As per Journal pages all week, upbeat U.S eco’ data on the housing/ job front and surprising Global PMI’s overshadowed a quiet week in Europe. Traders (mostly) putting money on economic/cyclical related sectors,(led by housing/financial) and away from a highly correlated market trade..”

BMO, Jan 10;  “The most important aspect today was China (Shang ‘index) getting on track off ... index was a wary noted yesterday.  If this is the beginning of a reversal in the China market, it’s a very good sign for U.S markets to go higher as risky assets would rise out of better China sentiment.”…”In all, the positive momentum continues and can only get a boost from Asia….”…The same trends continue..” Traders (mostly) putting money on economic/cyclical related sectors”…

BMO, Jan 12: SP at 1293: “Most are underweight equities as noted previously; catch up mentality may propel market to low 1300’1315 SP”

___________________________________________________________________________________

Jan 19, SP hits 1315 target, up ~4-5% YTD with all the early economic/ cyclicals sectors/ higher beta trade noted since start of month outperforming SP 2:1.

Merkel moves to recap banks sets off rally Oct 4th: see trigger/level call

Excerpt reply to reader :

Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2011 02:59:36 -0700

"Good to hear from you and good that you've been sidelined!. Looks like last note is playing out“. ….It’s probably best to take August off and get refreshed for what may turn out to be a very meaningful last Q run-up.”....Best to remain sidelined till sometime in October(probably mid Oct) for a possibe run up.....

....think its range bound 1230-1140SP, would like break of 1140 now to hit 1100-1090 for best scenario to have susbstantial last Q run up chance. Looking for lows to be hit.

Need to get through what is usually a 'bad seasonal' time also with or without all this stuff.  No reason to get online now, policymakers in US/Europe have readers/ investors too scared to jump in. 

Market needs triggers. Europe needs to inject capital into 'banks' for their balance sheets, not add liquidity like last week to stop jitters."

..downbeat

“. ….It’s probably best to take August off and get refreshed for what may turn out to be a very meaningful last Q run-up.”.

5 reasons why the above includes last few days of July…way too many for any Bull at this time...

• ·         Debt ceiling circus
• ·         European spreads widening
• ·         Economic data
• ·         Earnings-  Guidance showing things slowed in back end
• ·         Technical- lower highs/higher lows, SP at June –July trend-line  

DJIM plays 1st Q: SPX 1250 call, MCP, SODA, TDSC, CRR, IPGP, TBL, MSTR, WTW

Shadowed Box denotes : Left bottom corner(time/date) of DJIMSTOCKS.com Intraday Alert or initiation and addition to our Shadowlist to trade.

BROAD MARKET ALERT: Mar 16, 2011 at 02:25PM:   SPX 1250 hit, could be low for awhile. watch if mkt starts to ignore headlines from here as positive. excluding anything (catastrophic). 

Market had just hit 1250SPX minutes before, Newsflows from Japan ignored by market next day.

Molycorp, Inc. MCP

Alert: MCP, bot back as a commodity play, yesterdays sell off might be an opportunity following a steady climb in february that could resume. Mar 8, 2011,10:51AM at $48

SodaStream International Ltd.  SODA

Alert: SODA, coming up to Dec highs + Oppenheimer bullish comments may equal a trade here soon. (it's a volatile one), Jan 13, 2011 at 09:48AM at ~$32

3D Systems Corp. TDSC   (stock symbol change to DDD)

Daily Journal:  "WTW TDSC TLB, (picked TBL to alert today, but you can add all 3 to Shadowlist for now)."February 18, 2011 at 07:55AM

NOW TRADING AS "DDD"

CARBO Ceramics Inc.  CRR

Daily Journal: DJIM Shadowlist addition premkt:Jan 28,2011 at ~$110

 

IPG Photonics Corporation  IPGP

Daily Journal:  "...IPGP  was a little crazy much. Excellent earnings are being rewarded, it’s as simple as that.", February 11, 2011 at 07:46AM.  In @45

Timberland Co.  TBL

Alert: TBL, $36 now, but a blowout Q to add to list, Feb 17, 2011 at 10:25AM at $36  

 

 MicroStrategy Inc.  MSTR

Daily Journal:..."we’ve been anticipating better EPS reactions post FFIV AAPL GOOG due to bar being lowered and today small caps were prime examples of this occurring from JNPR, FNET, MSTR, KEYN..."...January 27, 2011 at 07:52AM

Weight Watchers International, Inc.  WTW