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Entries in Ag's/Chem (1)

Monday
Feb092009

Holding pattern..

Sitting on the dock of the bay…wasting time was the theme to today’s trade.    Tomorrow, if you’re not careful it’s gonna be more than ships rolling away, it will be your ‘chips’.     Any positives from todays trade like staying around 870 will be irrelevant tomorrow,  so there’s no reason to dwell on today’s holding pattern.      Still as far as today,  we had the Ag’s chem stocks POT, MON MOS  start to rollover ahead of tomorrows USDA # following the run into it.     The coals seem to have short covering occurring, WLT ANR JRCC BTU.    The recent run on the commods’ is not only the BDI,  but the PMI index we highlighted as a positive early last week.     The financials, specifically the life insurers (HIG ) led on reports the TARP will opened up to them.     Recent plays here like GNK MYGN GEOY  all hit new recent highs during the day.  In the broad market, we need a healthy close above 869(50Ma)-870,  today did nothing.    It’s was all a waiting game with light volume for tomorrow and we leaned to the short side SPY, long SDS  for the broad market in case the mood turns negative (premkt) before the announcements.   Just in case the market decides it didn’t get any positive clues today.   It may be disappointed by the time it wakes up and/or trades in Europe is our thinking, we didn't exactly hear anything great ourselves.    Afterwards, we expect nothing  less than a volatile trading session.   The possibility that nothing will change and everything remains the same is high.   The hoopla is Super Bowl out of hand,  the expectations seem to be too high and usually the game disappoints.     Unfortunately, nobody really knows what they want or what is the right solution.     Geithner will make his big bank bailout speech tomorrow @ 11amET .   He’ll have all day to 'sell the plan ' with numerous interviews.    Hopefully, Geithner gives a better presentation than Paulson did not so long ago.   Unfortunately, there is no magic pill and we fear if not enough is done on the toxic assets, we’ll have an unhappy market.    A bad bank with private investors providing much of the capital is not a cure, but maybe an expanded TALF plays a role here as well.    As it stands now,  we’re not sure which part of the rumoured plan can change the sentiment to a positive bias.   If the plan is just an overview and lacking major details, clarity, we won’t have a happy market.  

SELL, SELL, is something Geithner will have to do,  if not,  the market will SELL SELL for him.   We’ll update during the day as events unfold.