Ahead of the open, (18-07)

Bernanke’s prepared text took the market down, Bernanke’s Q&A took the market up.  Yep, that pretty well sums up the schizoid market today!.

  

In the end, equities might have gained, but USD/Gold/TSY’s signalled no conviction in the belief QE was coming in August (although odds went up for action in September).  Also, SP may have gained 10pts, but higher beta hardly participated as single stock action was lagging. 

 

Besides a few recent IPO’S like YELP, GWRE up 7 and 5% respectively, it is hard to find a beta stock up even 2% today.  R2K gains were half of SP’s. The SOX chart remains ugly and hit fresh multi-months lows today and 52w high list includes all the safest havens (REITs, utilities, Pharma).  This is hardly a strong rally into resistance in the low SP1360’s and so caution is needed.  Until this market narrative changes, it is best to concentrate on upcoming earnings surprises than chasing previous ‘growth’ winners at this point.

Ahead of the open, (20-07)

EZ summit highs were penetrated in the morning, rinsed back before finishing right on the SPY swing high from early July.  All in, an interesting day.  Why?.  Although small cap RUT was the only red finish amongst the indices many of our ‘higher beta’ Shadowed growth stocks outperformed substantially.  This smells of rotation, but at this point it’s just a lot of covering in tech linked stocks.(SOX up nearly 6% off lows).  Still, its possibly enough to reach SP1400 as long as bad eco’ data is ignored (Existing home sales -5% vs +1% expectation, Phily Fed today) and EZ stays quiet.  Financials stepping up would enhance the possibilities of a higher SP price.

  

MLNX  significant growth outlook followed up VMW slightly positive report to lead tech linked stocks , VFC  earnings led ‘retail’ growth names..(RL, COH, FOSL +5%).  FCX’s helped base metal linked stocks.  Other single stocks closings, BSFT +7%, YELP, LVS, GWRE +5%, FFIV WPRT, LNKD, LULU, CRM,  WYNN,  BIDU >3%.  FFIV  weak guidance is another example in tech/internet where…”Bad reports this Q are any that simply don’t beat the watered down consensus estimates”.  The stock climbed $10 off printed lows.  These reactions are especially prominant in tech, which ranks as the most beaten down sector recently as far as sentiment is concerned.