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Wednesday
Apr062011

...holding up

Market reaction to what may be construed as negative tilted newsflow (crude price, a few Eco data points, lowering of GDP forecasts ) continues to be limited by long holders. One of the underlying reasons is a tick up in broad market M&A activity ranging from telcos to semi action last night.  Most other market times, a $6.5 bln deal in the Semiconductor space would propel the Nasdaq to hefty gains, but not this market today!. Unfortunately, we are in somewhat of a hold mode as Japan and some overall softness in consumer hardware space gets digested and investors wait on earnings to commence and/or pre-announcements  (a few more mid -caps today, but nobody large) to unfold.   As shorts watch the market edge higher for almost 3 weeks now, a fear of more upside has left them sidelined.

The only space shorts have tried to take advantage of is the Semi space and the TXN deal screwed them of their only home.  We would have seen market gains instead of another meandering day, if ‘conviction’ buyers entered the market. The initial ramp in Naz, semi’s was pure good old fashioned short covering as their semi home got raided.  Post-short covering, the conviction buyers simply stayed away despite all the upgrades in semi’s.  The market needs leadership and if a trough is around the corner for the semi’s, it might get some money off the bench and a follow through to chase higher beta growth would likely follow.

In all, the anticipation here heading into the week is unfolding as the market is seemingly on summers hours working off the rally in horizontal fashion before earnings.  As the R2K beats on higher, it welcomes a move higher from more of the market as digestion occurs near 1335PX.