DJIM hold/ hit list wk #12.....incl. BRLC PVA SINA TWLL RVBD

Market is still going through a consolidation phase, and it still means that the priority for us is the capital preservation.    However, it doesn't mean that we'll be shying away from good trading opportunities, and it'd be irresponsible if we don't trade them.      What we at DJIM here stress is that in a time like this, we'd only trade what we think are the best of the best setups and leave the iffy ones alone.    We also do keep our trading time frame per play to a conservative level where we'd take profit on small increments, a $1/point here and there and not get carried away with big positions on any one stock.   We can't wait for 25%+ DJIM benchmark these days, so taking 5 -10% quickly is fine with us.  This style is definitely more difficult to trade compared to riding a few big winners that can offset any small losses from other trades.   We are literally trying to basically do with only the most probable plays, with the least risk.   This comes in the form of stocks with a earnings base for DJIM.  We've heard that many traders around various chat room, blogs surprisingly under performed in October.  We're not sure the path they have taken but we've taken/followed the uptrend path here at DJIM.   Well, unfortunately this game isn't an easy business so only time can tell whether one is cut out to do this for a living, or not.    Here are some recent plays...

The week provided some nice intraday trades off our extended trading thread...CASM, LMRA back to back days in Market Chat.  The first 3 below were mentioned in pre market yesterday. The market survived the eco numbers and some of these provided nice entries off earnings.

TWLL....     This one gave us a little surprise late afternoon as it came on with strong volume and then some follow through, finishing with a NCH.   The earning action definitely looks very strong and we think it may catch some attention around the trading circle.  See more below on TWLL.

BRLC..surprisingly this one traded down to $7.01 after multiple upgrades, a healthy price target of $14 by BMurray after beating estimates handily....7c vs.1 c estimate, revenues climbed 3x.      How this one is going to trade is still remaining to be seen.    Usually when it gaps up like that with that kind of volume, you'd see some more upside down the road.

SINA beat by .5, upped revenue G, multiple price upgrades in the morning and then closes gap to Thursdays close before EPS. That was a Friday morning gift to have a stock with so many positives only trade 1% higher in the morning.  If stocks that beat by .5, raise guidance and only move 1% up, we'd be out of the trading business real fast.!.  We'd be happy with a test of $30 here. The first two might have the better upside in the near term as far as collecting points, profits.

MR, stock had another nch(new closing high) on Friday and we are very encouraged by its action.   This stock is due to release its earning on Nov. 16th and we think there's going to be a pre-earning run-up play.     In last week's DJIM #11, we discussed the further play we were looking for after selling. Monday was a further drop and soon we were sitting on the 9ema ready for another move up.

PVA ..a  O&G/coal.....started to watch closely Thursday off earnings ($1.21 v 1.06). More below on Penn Virginia Cp.

BTJ, it seems a lot of the oil service stocks are perking up lately, there is always something to fuel it..yesterday was one of those days.  This one also made it to IBD100 as #19.   See last weeks DJIM wk #11 for our buy in below $16 , the play we were looking for and got Friday.   We are keeping an eye on ALY as well.

EDU, Chinese stocks immune to the pullback?  Perhaps!   We are certainly seeing strength in many of the Chinese stocks on our trading list.

RVBD, this is one of the techs that broke out on Friday, one of the few techs that are standing out in our opinion. We still can't decide between the APKT, RVBD, DIVX...IPO's.... all we know is they provide plenty of trading opp's at this time, figuring out which will be the champ longer term is anyone's guess. Right now..there is a new champ every week in this IPO tech game.

Speaking of champs, we threw out ATNI at the open mid week ...she was a champ going from $21 area to $24 for many DJIM readers in a few days. We took a lot off near $24 as it seemed a bit tired late in the week. The numbers look great and we look for more out of ATNI. This is a relatively unknown stock, we hope and by the early volume off earnings we think this may be on a few trading lists soon.

RIMM,APH,UCTT round out our lists.  As per BT's charts, ACOR proved it couldn't handle its weight. Looks like many were expecting something out of the CC to fuel it. It didn't happen and many sold off. Still we'll keep this one around DJIM and hope for a news spark.

SYNL, EML are two DJIM profiled quality EPS crawlers..these are for the ones that like their sleep.

So, it seems that we have quite a few new plays on our hand after cleaning house late October. We are basically trying to play the best setups and again keeping our time frame short.   Until the market mood improves or we get a great earnings winner, this is the way we are going to be trading.

DJIM charts updated incl.APH APKT ATNI BTJ MR RIMM SPX TWLL UCTT

NCH-New closing highs for a few DJIM stocks.....MR, RIMM, TWLL** this weekend note" Last Q had 2 straight days of a move after EPS.(beginning of Aug.)"

APKT

APKT did the pre earnings move we were hoping for last week in DIVX. We will exit before release, maybe it gets one last push into the close.  June Q was .09c on 19mln. CC 5pm.

* Past DJIM, SNCR also reports, June Q.05 on 17+mln.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/18/sncripo-at-10.html

AAON, AAON inc.....TRMS, Trimeris Inc.

More on AAON from chat this am, the numbers were 64mln vs. 48 +33%. EPS .43c vs.22, this topped estimates of .35c.  Opened starter position early and will add if it breaks that congestion at $25. AMIE type stock..crawler

TRMS reported yesterday after close, the numbers very good off HIV med sales. More of a trade prospect as this works the EPS and story.

**MARKET CHAT

Damn...TRMS ruined a perfectly good chart set up;
Management working the ' story '...the EPS was there, sold most AH on the news.

04:00 ET Trimeris says to focus on Fuzeon profitability (TRMS) 10.04 +0.25:Co announces that it will shift its strategic emphasis and reorganize to focus tightly on Fuzeon profitability and its strength in research and early stage development. These changes are designed to significantly increase and sustain earnings from Fuzeon by sharply reducing expenses. Co and Roche will continue their collaboration to develop Fuzeon enhancements and Next Generation Fusion Inhibitors. "The changes in our co are designed to allow us to generate 2007 earnings well in excess of $1.00 per share and to have sustainable earnings and cash flow for the long-term. At annual earnings of $1.00 per share, we would generate approximately $20 million of additional cash flow and reach a year end 2007 cash position of about $65 mln... We will reduce programs and our workforce as a result of these changes. We expect to have the new business structure and supporting plans in place by year-end and look forward to creating significant shareholder value with these actions.
November 14, 2006 |

Was SNCR 40% better?

Not really...but it gives a good lesson.. a reminder of what we do with eps reports.

As it turned out, a heads up on APKT and SNCR together before earnings last night proved to be quite the example . Simply..we believe that the best money management is not holding into these calls.....Isn't just easier to recognize a good report, most importantly one that the market is happy with and go from there.  We also don't believe in chasing until the volume/trend tells us enough. Take yesterdays premarket notes on FTEK, BVX.   If you chase too early, you might end up on the wrong horse.    Back to holding into earnings..... Waking to a 20% drop in APKT or buying SNCR early, say low $11's and watching it go up another 10+%?....which will it be?.   Just like TWLL, SNCR was introduced early on the DJJournal...congrats to those that have held through after doing enough DD to realize these are more than short term trading tools. DJIM goal is to find this combination, a quality tradeable company with earnings. Something that attracts and fits, both the trader and longer term investor. 

If the trend continues, APKT will go through the same exercise DIVX and to a lesser extent RVBD has gone through.   We expect to see APKT back on the DJIM trading block very soon, maybe even tomorrow..lol

GROW, U.S Global Investors Inc.

To add to the split, it's earnings bright and early tomorrow. Hard to believe it is already our second earnings go around with GROW at DJIM. This one is already a 25% member of DJIM.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/8/back-on-the-saddlegroweps-fnet-7s.html

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/8/31/iaac-245-grow-2485-entry.htm

Update on Wednesday, November 8, 2006 at 09:01PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

CETV, Central European Media Enterprises, another member of DJIM 25%+ sits pennies off highs as it reports before the bell on Thursday.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/8/29/is-it-2pm-yet-fomc-minutes-cetv-at-60.html

Update on Thursday, November 9, 2006 at 08:52AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Not sure what the analyst missed here..lol. CEO says the Q was 'impressive', CC at 11am will tell the tale. The action will tell if worth trade before CC.

CETV prelim $0.15 vs ($0.25) Reuters consensus; revs $112.5 mln vs $105.12 mln Reuters consensus

No trade here after earnings. Watch for a possible ICLR reaction..it will take some time.

TRT, Trio Tech International EPS .23 vs (0.08)..$12.70's

Beat sequentially as well

        -Just a follow up!    This goes to show that TRT is not a one quarter wonder.    It used to do 6 mil rev/q and now it's doing 10 mil rev/q.    If the trend continues and this thing should get an instant lift in valuation.      Also, IBD eps is at 75 and it may see an increase in that too, which gives another potential play down the road.

Float is awesome in this one and even if the Zeff dude start selling again, we don't think it'll matter that much.

we added aggressively today and will add more on weakness/strength

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/22/trt-at-850-open.html

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/23/the-follow-up-on-trt.html

CSCO...DISCO

Boy...this old song and dance is a bore. Have we not seen this before?.   Well, it wasn't too long ago, August 9th..the day after CSCO's shiny earnings that the Nasdaq did a 37 point dive off the top to the close.  Let's go through the two step today...early morning in MC we said.."P.S..a good time this morning to take some profits in your gaps".  Sometimes you are given a gift, unwrap it and leave.  We can't stress it enough here, take..lock in your points, profits. The Nasdaq proceeded to give up 30 points from highs to lows of the day.  It was just last night and many times before these names were profiled and /or talked about as trade bait on DJIM...from yesterdays close to their highs today, MR up 9.4%, RVBD 6%, DIVX 5.5%, BTJ 5%, SNCR 9.5%, SRVY 8.3%, EDU up 3%, RIMM 3%...10% since note in MC on the perfect conditions for a kick from 118's. Throw GDP 5% and even TRT from $12.70' alert time was a 10% ride to the close and yesterdays list glows.  If you're not taking profits of these type of gains, DJIM is not your bar!  

As per MC, we were ready to rotate more new found cash into more BTJ, GDP etc. This turned out to be no more than a intraday sector trade...they perked up quickly and just as fast gave it up. We did the same as the tide turned for the day, but the day was far from over as TRT, GMKT, GLDN (MC) were added along the way. The G's are earnings releases within the past 48hrs with charts that were looking for new highs while the market was selling off.

A few notes...

GROW- as per market chat comments,  we waited out the CC after a morning trade. This was too funny!. Is this a Asset management company or a PR firm?. We're sorry but taking 7+mln OS and turning it into 15mln shares via split is not going to lessen the "trading volatility" in GROW.  This is not the usual reasoning for a split and we can't believe GROW's team believes cheaper shares won't bring on those that like cheaper shares to trade. This stock has a reputation we've seen grow since the beginning, its not going away with a split. They are traders themselves, you know.  The fact they stated they have been on IBD #1 for 8 of 9 weeks is over the top. These guys should be promoters not Asset managers. The ironic kicker is they might need the extra shares to pull off the closing stunt today another day.  GROW was about to finish below the breakout point under $35, but then the painters came in and with a stroke of the brush made it a mid $35 close. The ugly candlestick was spared, but the smell of it all you can't hide with a paper bag.  We believe nothing will change with GROW the stock, it will remain a volatile trading stock and nothing more. Care should be taken with any position going forward, just like its always been recently.

TRT...what TRT gives out mid-quarter reports?;). Didn't we just introduce this at $8.50. Well...management gave a pleasant surprise with the unexpected early earnings release. We applaud this management, no doubt this was to stick a fork into the inside sellers side. You see there is a difference between the companies people selling and a Hedge fund aka Zeff doing the deed with a large stake in the co'.  We feel they were a little ticked off and today's early surprise was the pay back. This stock was almost ruined, now this DJIM stock has life again. We look forward to IBD refreshing the rating.

Update on Thursday, November 9, 2006 at 09:55PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

AAON-APH-ATNI-BTJ-GROW-MEK-MR-SNCR-TWLL-RIMM-RVBD-UCTT(wkly)....this should be enough as BT is starting to see cowboys and stallions in his work;)
NDX WITH TARGET....updated at BT charts (navigation column)

15 31 26 24

TRT EDU AAON ATNI ..okay AAON was only 25.99 ...just 3 more clean numbers for Super 7 Lotto tonight. ;)

EDU today at 29   

DJIM index outperformed

most of the day big time....You know you're in a groove when AH a DJIM neglected shoots up 20% as you're about to call it a day. Only this afternoon TRMS was setting up after a great EPS. Everything else has been so hot, this one has been placed to the side as it consolidated.  We thought TRMS had the earnings and a story to go with it, today management decided to reveal a new direction...the story behind the new found EPS strength....You also know things are going for you when you're not scouring for the next EPS gem, pre market or AH. Why?...Because we already have them for ourselves and DJIM readers since their first trade after earnings!. Has anyone noticed AAON (nice day), ATNI are probably up 20% since getting space on DJ Journal.  Not bad in a week to two.  A lot of you love the juice of the runners, the EFUT, the CAAS's but for a complete healthy diet, we strongly recommend only one thing around here ( besides not holding into earning).  That is spread yourself out a bit, one day you'll get flushed by a runner and you won't have anything to buy these crawlers with. To us they are crawlers, to the funds that accumulate ...these are sound investments.  The daily speed might not be there for you, but the gains of 25+% in a month, a quarter is nothing to sneeze at. We doubt many places can offer you the experience of finding, trading the momentum stocks as well as the ones your financial advisor might find suitable for your family book. The best thing is we hate "RED" and avoid all to see such in one of our buys. The worst thing we could ever do is procrastinate, its not extensive DD'ing, its the action, the volume that gets us in most stocks. The time lapse between finding something we like and the time we pull the trigger, is quite short... but this doesn't mean chasing a stock without getting the 'feel for it.  This is how we avoid the "RED".  It is also the confidence in seeing and doing it all over again. This is the same confidence that rubs off on many readers of DJIM that have been with us for what is probably 3 years now.  BT is one of them we're happy to say. Charts paint a history, the stocks characteristics are embedded. This is why we recycle,(TRT most recently) our hitlists/ watch lists rarely take up more than one screen to get the job done.     So what happened today........Confidence, experience told us we'd have probable gaps for EFUT and CAAS...we've seen it and crazily feel it sorry to say..lol..we have no life...Its never too late to buy in the last 10-15 minutes, it is actually the best time for us in adding a position.  CAAS was $10.30 or so when we said a gap was probable, a gap is not the thing you see only in the morning open.  It is a stock running to 11.70 AH as well.   EFUT, we were confident in putting it up back to back on closes at DJIM.  We said this was something else, tonight we're glad to say its someone else's.  This is not the bread and butter of DJIM, we wrestled the idea of even mentioning it Friday..but felt comfortable with the gap idea end of day.  A $2 track or lotto ticket is all we would place on it short term as of this afternoon(MC).  Incredibly the insanity of watching, dealing with EFUT didn't take away from watching, trading other DJIM stocks. The super ninjas muscled out their cheaper cousins, the C-team of Chinese stocks. EDU, MR outclassed the bunch and finished the day with NCH's..each up about 10% at the highs. There was GROW getting the 'volatility' management just loves;)...DLB a quiet 3%, TRT unfortunately gave up the highs..guess its best to see the charts for the rest of the story of the happenings around here...oh AXR recently mentioned as part of DJIM A-team with AMIE, APH (back to $69), we were a little too full today to enjoy this ride, hope some of you caught it!

DJIM Trader alerts- new feature

DJ Trader Market hours Alerts

Up to the minute alerts of the stocks 'ONLY' DJIM traders are closely watching for a trade. This section is mostly for the full -time trader during market hours and will be used instead of the "Daily Discussion", Market Chat. We will still comment, respond to the activity on Market Chat from our readers. In an effort to get information to you quickly, these alerts may only contain a few words, maybe only a symbol of the stock.

If already a subscriber to emails, press subscribe on top of DJTrader Alerts page when signed in.                              

If you are not a subscriber yet, email as your request for subscription passwords to set up your email account. Use EMAIL DJIM on the DJ TraderJournal page.

**If you are a subscriber to DJ Journal via RSS feeds only, this feature might be of interest to you as it will only contain DJIM trader comments during market hours.

EXLS, Exlservice Holdings Inc.

We've had great success in the IPO market market, following the likes of EDU, TWLL, MR, SNCR and trading the likes of RVBD,DIVX in the tech field from scratch.

We are throwing a new name out in Exlservice Holdings (EXLS) based on its report.  It is easy for a IPO to show growth in year over year comparisons, why else would they have gone to market unless they are showing very good growth rates the big boys will like.  EXLS has done this with 35 Mln vs. 18mln revenue growth, .19 vs .5 c EPS, but the thing the got our attention is the guidance for another excellent Q.  EXLS is projecting to do about 118 mln in revenue for 2006, this equates to something like 36mln next Q which is in line with this Q's after management said this one had benefits that would not continue.  There is an acquisition tossed in most likely this year, so what...thats a good thing.  Next Q the revenues ramps to this Q's, the benefits most likely excluded.....It's good enough to give this co' a second look, today or down the line.  Net income is projected to be 4-5mln next Q, this after a Q with the benefits in tow is quite respectable, putting the EPS in the mid teen to high teens again.  IPO's are difficult to cut and sometimes difficult to trade initially right after earnings, the reaction of the market is hard to gage as we saw with EDU. They spiked it down after what looked like a stellar Q, well we all saw the comeback and more to the $34's yesterday with it. There is just too many unknowns with the functions that come with the IPO, including potential profit taking after the run into earning which seems to be more common lately with IPO's than the usual suspects....so let the market tell you today..or down the line if this a good deal.  Some stocks you waste no time getting in as in a AAON, ATNI, which are just plainly under radar initially, others well knowns that get bid up with a gap aka DAKT are better to let settle on earning day before getting in.  

What does this co' do?..this DD is irrelevant and a waste of time at this point for us. It's got holdings in its name. Assuming they hold things is sufficient...okay, we actually looked..EXLS is a BPO.. whatever!. hey a Park Avenue address..that's more interesting;), they can pay their rent most likely.  Yeah, we do funky DD work around here..oh yeah, the chart is quite the funkster too...

We also looking at ZOLL, Zoll Medical Corp. as a possibility. RIMM gifted another price tgt lift, this time 160 from UBS...Markets a little happy premkt, day 5 here we come it seems..

Hey..the 'Big Hurt' is a Jay!?   ...WSeries here we come...NOT!

Alert follow up. One does not work without the other, so keep updated to DJ Journal activity.

DJIM recap..

So far the blueprint for this holiday week is quite the Green when it comes to DJIM small caps. We spoke of EFUT possibly being good material for holiday trading and it hasn't disappointed as far as excitement goes and huge gains since Mondays open.  Does it have more in store?. Who knows!. The real fighters off DJIM have to be GROW and JST, up 8% and 7% plus respectively today with NCH's. If you were patient, you probably got yourself a decent entry on JST without chasing its lights out on the open yesterday. Not far behind has to be the GLDN in DJIM alerts today mid 39's when volume was a quiet 30K. This Golden baby didn't only perk up, it foamed up to $41 and a clean breakout on 308K volume.  Again..the point of alerts is to show a stock of interest to us,  it isn't a license to buy because we mentioned it.  So everyone is into the momo this week, that's okay DJIM crawlers go the back door and put up another 5% as in the case of ATNI, $27.58. Ain't that chart a beaut for this DJIM stock from $21 this month. Paste this one on the wall of 25+% moves on the DJ Journal Archives wall....right next to MR which made a nice move to close at $22 today.  

A note on TRT, we pointed out the possibilities on the weekend. One was a volume break over the high, this didn't happened. The other possibility happened but it wasn't the slow and easy walk to 9ema, we would consider for a play. We noted a few things last night we didn't like about the stock and its surroundings, todays action really didn't come as a surprise.  Now is not the time to chase 9ema bounces, there is plenty of other plays forming.   Hard to tell now how TRT will react.    

Be smart, the market is only going to get thinner as we head into Wednesday trading.  If your stock exceeds expectations it might only be an illusion and not your trading prowess, same goes don't freak and SOS DJIM if the stock of choice does not meet your expectations...the spreads, the volume allow for a lot of trickery as we finish off the week.....

CMT mentioned around these parts since earnings,  put in a nice candle for the day. Let's see what this close brings tomorrow, if it holds early this type of thinster making a NCH has the makings of something that could bring traders in.

Chinese stocks... the likes of BIDU, GRFF, HMIN are definitely across a few trading desks this week providing a volatile trade.

Three and a half hrs left....

Still 3.5 hrs left to feast on this holiday trading week....do you have it in you?.

Wednesday premarket we noted JCG, J Crew which has been undergoing a turnaround since 2003 with a new CEO.  JCG came out with stellar earning and raised "G". We're not big on trading retailers but this one had a nice chart and the flavor of IPO still over it as well.  Hey, its not Limited Brands inc, (LTD) that we could do some serious due diligence work on over the holiday up here in Toronto... but with XMAS shopping season around the corner, this preppy clothier might stick around the DJIM books if it continues to gain interest. Of course, its Black Friday weekend so you have that to consider all the upcoming news into a potential retail play for your book.  The stock traded up to $38 AH's Tuesday, the open dipped into the high $36's..a surprise with nothing really behind it, this definitely looked like a buy opportunity to us..  Soon the stock picked up and it was not too much later that we entered as it started to catch some air. There are 100's of releases this time of the year, we are selective in putting things up you might want to look at during extended trading hours, DJIM alerts as well.  JCG was one you should have been watching early on with us.   CAAS's crazy one day run recently might have given you reason to check back into this Market Chat feature.

Another highlight was the move in the heavily followed DJIM stock MR.  Not much you could say about it except it managed to tack on another $1.50 after being alerted to with the follow up on JCG in the morning.

CMT, this late day alert Tuesday in the very low $9's put in a very good day closing in on $10. The chart looks excellent for this steady mover and it's IBD #'s are getting interesting enough to get some attention in our books.

GROW, GMKT continue to provide the best trading opportunities while climbing higher, buying the dips is not going out of style with these G's.

RVBD is providing the best opp in the recently followed DJIM tech names and is really the only one we have interest in trading...DIVX might be shaping up but the SCNR, TWLL, TRT, UCTT need further consolidation and/ or a breakout for us to get interested again.  Be careful tomorow, false breakouts may occur on small volume, best to pocket some gains because they can evaporate quickly come next week.  

EFUT, CAAS are teasing and might be playable tomorrow again, we just wouldn't be holding them into the weekend.

DJIM hold/ hit list #15

Despite a shortened trading week in which the indices basically consolidated on light volume, DJIM heavily followed stocks produced quite a week again. Add the early introduction of JCG, alert on CMT low $9's and there was more than enough to feast on this past holiday week.  With the mid week additions and the strength of DJIM stocks,  there is really nothing new to add going into the week. Again, as the gains marched on last week it is never a bad time to pocket some points.   In 3 days and 3.5 hours, JCG, MR, RVBD, GROW, CMT all posted gains of more than 10% on the week, throw in another 5-6% from the RIMM'r...DIVX, mentioned last week as the only other DJIM small cap tech worth a trade tacked on 6% the last 2 days.....even the crawler ATNI closed friday at $28 and another NCH.  Some like ZOLL, EXLS are slowly coming off, consolidating those huge DJIM opening day runs and might be ready to participate, especially if we get a good market.  The action in the DJIM stocks made it unnecessary to seek out new flyers for a quick holiday trade, we mentioned EFUT last DJIM #14 as a possibility for last weeks probable enthusiasm and it didn't disappoint with a two day run of 30% or so. We don't know the mood Wall Street will come back to their desks with...we really don't care and either should you.  If you are practising taking your points and profits like us the last few weeks, well actually the last 10 or more weeks...you are in a great position to end the year!. If so... now is maybe becoming the time to be more selective, which could be just reducing your positions or the lot sizes of your top performing DJIM stocks.  If we get a pullback before XMAS, you will be thankful as you sit in extra cash and shop for the familia,  while others may find there is nothing even for themselves in the Markets Store.  The Market is quite the resilient one, but you never know if and when a crack will appear at these levels.