DJIM holds/ hit list week #9

As the NFL takes on week #6, DJIM is on #9 running nose to nose with Da' Bears on record and the PF/PA spread, we are about collecting points except we are da' Bulls....After 8 weeks of solid gains including catching 9 moves of 25% and up since late August, we are quietly sitting with skeleton shares or none at all with most on our list waiting for a new earnings play(s) to come forward... or a bust out move like we recently had in AZZ, DGIT even if it is short lived from the ones on our list. These include some long followed DJIM's...CPY since $ 43,CETV from $60, MR an IPO.  So far the big names earnings releases are outperforming the 1 Alcoa, so things ahead look promising but that could change with one report as previously discussed. In the meantime, we will try catch a move here and there like BVX last week. Nothing new is worth taking on this weekend with the expectation of giving us a move DJIM style.

ACOR as per Market chat comments is one we still look to trade once some PR flow kicks in again.

EDU which is on its second DJIM run from $22 has earnings this week. Again, we don't hold into earnings but we will jump again if it is to our liking.                                          

RIMM, CETV, CPY all 10%+ DJIM's are all near tops which we want broken to add. We hold skeleton shares of these between us and will add if the tops look to be taken out. Exits are pretty clear on the charts for most of the DJIM's.  EML might be starting its crawl.

TRT has provided plenty of opportunity for those following since DJIM alert at $8+, we'll wait out the games and look for confirmation to go back hard. A start would be a close above the 9ema.

In between we look for DIVX, RVBD and now APKT to provide almost daily opportunities in the tech IPO fever. Some other names previously on the DJ Journal ANST,SIM,CSH, NEU also had a good week. Hopefully, after 8 weeks these names have made it to your lists. The point of our lists from week to week is so you may assemble a list of your own to concentrate on from what we trade and follow..... saving you lots of grunt work but still doing your own DD on the listed before making a trading decision.

Charts updated at BT charts....ACOR, AZZ, BVX, DGIT, EDU, EML, RIMM, TRT and the NDX

EDU eps- profit doubles

EDU which we first bought Sept 13 and enjoyed a quick run from 22 to 28 and then again from 22 for another recent trip announced profits that had doubled this Q . It seemed it would be hard to get a read as Q numbers are not readily available and other factors such as no coverage yet but .73 per ADS/.18c cents seems like a very good number(21m in net), is this really in US dollars and not RMB's?. Revenue of 54m(+31%)this Q...EDU did 96mln for all of last year in a transition year.  Operating margins grew to 42% from 29%. Growth anticipated at 16.5-24.4% YOY next Q....not too shabby it seems.. but CC (analysts too) and the market will tell us what to do and figure out how fast EDU is growing.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/13/edu-entry-at-22.html    Sept 13 intro to EDU

Update on Tuesday, October 17, 2006 at 11:26AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

The market said no...it doesn't matter if you triple profits, the market news will have the upper hand. We've stated our position the last couple of days(mostly cash) and EDU won't make us jump back in as the market conditions don't warrant much new money to be deployed. As per MC trying a trade with ACOR to keep busy and look for a breakout, if not its just a trade.CETV is one breaking the trend a bit today... we mentioned yesterday needing volume

DJIM- EPS in full swing

Today's comeback for the indecies was almost as good as Da' Bears one last night... the eco #'s had the market punted away, but again the return team was waiting to run it back...seems Da' Bulls are waiting at every opportunity not to miss more of this ride up. Nice coincidence all these mergers come on what is really day 1 of earnings with so many familiar names kicking it off today...what they trying to say?...Anyways...again, we're expecting volatility day to day with the market at these levels and the effect of earnings weighing on the trend. This is fine as we have gone mostly cash, volatility like today is a good trading environment to use some of it. You don't need to carry too much overnight as you could get a lot done trading intraday without putting yourself at more risk ...a 5 dollar up swing in RIMM, this options bit is a non-event and the most recent selling pressure was due to it. Another $150 tgt posted in premkt, a nice move by DJIM listed AZZ...CETV got the volume and broke out and is just off all time highs. ACOR giveth and taketh...just like earnings season does!...Razor sharp MOT's know that well tonight, be careful out there.

CHARTS UPDATED AT BT CHARTS...

DJIM-premarket note- stocks of interest-APH,LCC

DJIM type stocks to look at this morning for possible entry.

Amphenol beats by $0.06, guides Q4 revs, EPS above consensus (APH) :Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.77 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.71; revenues rose 42.4% year/year to $636.4 mln vs the $602.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.80-0.82 vs. $0.77 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $640-650 mln vs. $625.50 mln consensus.

Update on Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 12:46PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Found a nice entry on the APH:)..what a move this morning on this EPS play!.

CETV now in uncharted territory with a little help from $69's the other day.!. Oct 16 Market chat-CETV at DJIM highs on low vol(17K) could move with a little help.

CPY- added some as it climbs to breakout possibility levels at $50 in CETV footsteps.

Update on Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 03:18PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Yep....LCC a airline but it doesn't trade like one. We're trading some as a short term play with oil price and a target in the $80's by Prudential. Nice bounce off 50ma too.

not so GOOG'ilicious

(the markets)...we missed the memo on the 12,000 party too and instead have kept to ourselves and played and stayed with the recent DJIM mentions.

LCC has been a quick move to $48 and sits here at a interesting place...Resistance....while others like CAL,AMR continue on today. Call this a CNBC play as you can always decide the stocks fate as to what is going on in the world...day to day

DGIT like BVX we are waiting to maybe re-enter. It sits nicely near recent high, if it doesn't breakout we might remove both completely due to boredom. Charts we don't update daily now are ones which are ranging and need some juice before getting interesting again.

MR- quite a bit of trading premarket mid 16's. Just like when a stock starts to tank...we sell and ask questions later as to what is going on here at $17+. You can always re-enter if whatever it is deserves such.

CETV- we took some off recently as it became a 25% member of DJIM. Considering it has been the longest running DJIM stock, we will keep an eye on it and trade it accordingly.

DJIM hold/hit list wk #10-added Amphenol, Divx, US Airways

Going into last week mostly in cash, we were able to use some of it off our alerts on CETV,APH, LCC. Late friday, we decided to add the often mentioned DIVX on DJIM for a longer term play as it caught some volume....well till the Oct 30th EPS day, maybe. The three additions last week put EDU,EML,BVX off to the side right now. We are not into quantity, but quality plays. CETV becomes DJIM 10th stock to do a 25+% move, the latest push coming after our mention Monday at $69 in MC. APH was a premarket watch Wednesday for a possible entry off earnings, while LCC was a pure idea play on oil falling lower. We don't believe in chasing, being the first ones in on the bell....instead we wait and usually find a pretty good entry later in the morning. APH provided such and ran quickly after pulling back some early, we feel this one might be on DJIM for a while.  LCC, really turned out to be the play we were looking for. By the end of the week most of the airlines literally took off....$45 to 50 is not bad for few days work. We will trade it with the jet stream of news including (EPS 26th).  EDU despite good numbers, never provided a 3rd DJIM opportunity to enter as a Motley Fool article took its wind despite good #'s...funny thing is MF always had a concern for valuation but it never stopped EDU fans before. Thursday's action was overdone but we will keep it on the sidelines.  Don't lose track of past DJIM winners, look at what AMIE did recently(new highs). We've already discussed BVX, DGIT late last week so you know what we are waiting for.  MR, which we sold the little we had into the gap is back on close watch. It seems the spark was a popular newsletter on Chinese stocks providing the rush, according to a fellow trader... usually this fuses out come day 2 as the herd sells to new unknowing blood. We'll see if those chasing the volume break this week are the stronger ones. ACOR is unbelievably starting to look more than just a trade. The stock has held up remarkably well without the usual sell off you see in momo stocks. Other DJIM's including RIMM,CPY,TRT have their charts up.  A few others of some interest were mentioned Friday.

Charts updated at BT charts include ACOR,APH,AZZ,CETV,CPY,DGIT,DIVX,LCC,RIMM.TRT

Update on Monday, October 23, 2006 at 01:44PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Thats 4 days straight for LCC and the airlines . Taking most off here $ 51.20's after a 15% ride as the index plays with resistance.

SYNL-Synalloy

Excellent Q from this very thin traded, low float stock (5mln). Anything to do with pipes and chemicals we usually like;)...As usual we don't chase and end up holding the top, watch reaction..volume etc for a possible entry as we always say. .39 vs. 09 EPS for Q (2.4mln vs.525k Net.one time small gain in there it seems...still this look good with eps in the .30's., backlog sweet

DJIM recap

Yesterday, we used AMIE as an example of not tossing the DJIM stocks away after the initial runs with us. One point of our DJIM lists is that the reader start a list to follow this niche, narrowing down the suspects and recycling the familiar names like we do. Actually received an email this weekend from a reader reminding us of CTCM and a potential set up. It's great some are keeping past DJIM stocks close by.(especially today). Same goes for IAAC which we mentioned in MC just past 3pm and not a second later kaboom as BT likes to draw it. The other good reminder is in SYNL and that is.... dont chase until you see and feel that a stock will be in play. Sure some flipped for a few points but there are others that might be feeling stuck higher tonight. The volume was nothing spectacular to warrant a in play stock for today but we still picked up a few shares into the close as the numbers do look very good. We usually post a follow up when we enter if time permits as in TRT etc.

DIVX a pick up friday had a nice day and put in a NCHigh, CETV as well. LCC, we posted selling it off 51+ as there is some resistance here for the index...will look for another entry in size later. RIMM keeps knocking on 114...  should go through soon with some power if the mkt keeps this up. Some huge blocks showed up this afternoon 113+.

Charts updated at BT charts include ACOR,APH,AZZ,CETV,CPY,DGIT,DIVX,LCC,RIMM,TRT, (NDX)... Also visit Market Chat for other ideas from traders during the day.

Microsoft earnings...

We're sorry..bad joke....okay unto what's happening in real time, not when Gunsmoke was the deal on the tube;). DJIM real time starts bright and early as this joyous season of earnings only comes around once a year....Wait, it comes around 4 times a year and lasts quite the long time.  What it comes down to is ... EPS season is all year round with us...we play it, trade it, invest in it. We've given the lowdown many times on our trading principles and focus around this type of play.  On to the bright and early...this rush of earnings reports is something to chew on, sometimes its overwhelming at the front loaded season. What we will continue to with the help of fellow traders is try to give you what looks right to us for a trade, a play for that day.  Sometimes this is done on the first cup of coffee, so you better do your own research. We can help you recognize a potential earnings day trade, something we will watch and possiibly trade.  Today, the stars were ZIGO, KSWS, PCCC in premkt. ZIGO in the mid 14's, KSWS 33-34's, PCCC 9.90 at the open. Hopefully some DJIM readers jumped on one or two of these premarket or early on.  All made it to the top 10 percentage gainers during the day.

Earlier this week, we tossed out BTJ, FTK premkt off earnings. Some names given might have earnings calls later, so the numbers that may look swell might be beaten to death by a stuttering CEO. Sometimes there is a trade before, sometimes after the call.  We prefer no call...We don't hold into earnings reports and we don't hold into earnings calls unless the guidance has been revealed to the masses and the trading action indicates we should stick around.  Most of the stocks we put on watch premkt/AH will not end up on the DJIM hold/ hit list, but honestly we can't do anything but trade, so we must trade this opportunity when its presented. This usually helps fund DJIM stocks that we want as longer term holds, call it moonlighting.       Now back to DJIM stocks....

UCTT- this one first because there seemed to be some panic AH. The word 'dump' is something we should not tell the biggest, newest shareholder of UCTT shares. We should not tell the institution (most likely) they bought $1 and change over the closing price on Monday, earnings day. These deals do not happen a buck above the closing price on a particular day, you do not move 1.8 million shares at a premium from one hand to another, you move it lower. It's quite logical as to why, sometimes its just averaging out the deal.  Not being very familiar with the UCTT/ Seiger merger but the other reason for the block could be the business of the M&A. If this doesn't cut it for you, call Oliver Stone tonight or just wait for the morning action to set it, price it straight. Either way, we think the shares at $13 are a treat and not a trick for those buying from the scary people AH. Just like SYX, which we introduced at $13.... UCTT is and was not intended to be IBD material in 48 hours. SYX took sometime and so will UCTT, we think this transaction won't matter down the line if and when this gets truly noticed for it's IBD numbers.

TRT- this is going to the DJIM plot the last few days, except today's early move over $12.50 had us a little stunned. The volume made this impossible to hold. So what happens next is the market catches some air and gives TRT some volume and a push to 13. We still feel its a little early, maybe we are just hoping for a pullback to add. Today's actions tells us it wants to go higher, we're just not sure when the ETA for a test of the highs is.

RIMM, MR remain the stars this week...APH had a war just under $69 late in the day, finished higher so the war looks to be won as it comes to $70. We've dwindled down the BVX again, the power was not there for a further break. GROW came back on the trading block today, joining IAAC...a DJIM reunion of sorts.

Charts updated for fridays trading day at BT Charts

DJIM hold/hit list #11......MOBO hiccups the MOMO..

How convenient that earth shattering news was!...The market with 2 strikes against it yesterday....GDP and TGIF having little effect on the market, and then conveniently and timely GS decides to rile up the market with a blackberry file from an analyst whooping it up on a Friday night in Taipei with 'old news'....Did this tech rally really miss the fact that Vista delay troubles and 8 million Sony crisp and toasty batteries might dampen 4th Q holiday orders/sales and that corporations would take their sweet time incorporating Vista into '07.  Is it breaking news that many would go for something else this holiday season instead of a new MOBO' system?  Well...with a sensitive market after GDP#, profit taking Friday and with the market needing a rest period, it didn't take much to get the profit taking ball rolling without giving much thought. Is this really anything the market didn't know about or expect? . We wonder who was buying the selling on the 'demand has fallen off quickly in October" headline?.  You also have to wonder about a market that takes 'YUCK' GDP so lightly, yet gets shaken on MOBO growth prospects/shipment declines for October.   The market looks like it wants go higher into the last quarter to us, the GDP short term reaction helped this idea....but of course we need a healthy pullback ...consolidation, maybe this is it. The charts below show the lines in the sand for a pullback and/or some more. The SP on the upper line, the recent break outs of the indecies, the possibility of the Dow transports getting closer to highs which could be the last straw if it breaks out for those thinking this market will implode in 2006. Our gig at DJIM is not to get into the scenarios, there is enough info and talking heads giving their take. We don't want get into this ever on DJIM and we wouldn't expect many to ever agree with us or would we care if they didn't... so we don't.  We are traders first and as we always say....we will trade accordingly to the action we see. Yesterday, it was taking some off as we thought the GDP was enough to cause a needed pullback, the late tech action told us to sell but there were a few pieces we were still buying late in the day..   There are a few techs in the DJIM bunch..

TRT saw the brunt of the GS note. In our notes, we have been cautious on the TRT action pointing to the recent move without volume and waiting for the insiders to stop the selling. We talked off wanting a pullback to add before an attempt at the highs. Fridays was a little extreme to add, we will wait to see if the insiders helped the cause.

We added some DIVX again on the late day dip, we still think there will be some action like in RVBD the day of earnings before the release.

UCTT seemed to have survived the GS note and even closed higher than the much talked about pricing of the 1.8 mln share exchange.  Not bad action considering this is a semi with a cloud over it from that large transaction for some.

APH was looking so sweet as it broke the highs and toyed in the $70's  Then it got taken down with the rest. As we've said before, we expect this one to be on DJIM for a while.

RIMM..DJIM's after hours pick up at $99+ on earnings day had a nice breakout this week. We noted to look for one at $114 early on. TD research gave it a glowing report with another tgt in mid $100's on Friday. Our goal is still the 25% gain which is DJIM's benchmark we strive for in our buys to join the wall on our DJ Journal Archives page.

MR had a terrific week after driving us nuts for about a month. Last friday, we focused on the MR move and what it might bring the following week. Seems the break out move caught on as we went from low 17's to 19's. At this point we would like it to pullback closer to 9ema for another move into it. The volume dropped off thur/fri and so did our position. We will keep watching this closely and hopefully catch another move up.

ACOR is just a marvel to watch, it has bored the momo traders yet they all wait and watch for a move(including us;). This is now a hold long term for many as it has churned here in the 17 range endlessly. Are 3 or 4 firms wrong with the $24-25 targets on ACOR, we don't think so and patiently wait for any news to spark it again.

BTJ, the possibility we spoke of Wednesday for a late momo run into IBD didn't play out. The positive of this is the stock is becoming more attractive off the pullback after stellar earnings again...cheap...We will move heavy into BTJ on such sector moves but this will only occur with a volume push, so far BTJ is not trading like the BTJ we know...the volume is not there but we still bought some into the close as it closed in on the 9ema(15.80) level. The August run we followed had BTJ reach 9ema on day 6 (including earnings day) and then it continued forward.... Friday was day 4 this time around.

Some of the best trading opportunities this past week was from the stocks mentioned in the Extended trading thread in Market Chat...

FTK, ZIGO, CTCI and a few others on consecutive days.  We expect this to continue as the small caps begin to roll out their numbers. As the EPS small cap show and tell begins, we will still keep the charts refreshed for some DJIM stocks we have little or no shares of now. We don't expect these to test highs until EPS is out or some news propels them to break highs. This includes CETV, CPY.   On Thursday,  we said we dwindled BVX (DJIM since low 7's).. this follows DGIT (low 10's). BVX seems to be only for the chart players now, another play might be formed with those 3 last daily sticks, DJIM needs another catalyst to move back in. Both have been profitable DJIM plays but we see more exciting things coming up with a fresh earnings season. Like all DJIM listed stocks these will be watched for a possibe entry. IAAC,CTCM,GROW continue to provide nice intraday moves for traders.

Trick o' Treat

We're bagging some of our candy, freeing up cash today for the next round of earnings. Todays action feels like some want to ruin the party for some tonight. Just being cautious at this point. Maybe we're just spooked by DGIT's breakout;)..

ATNI-Atlantic Tele-Network

Okay.......simply we didn't like the way some recent DJ Journal stocks started to give up their early gains yesterday...AXR,ALB,IAAC..so we put on our bear costumes and hibernated by noon, but we really want to come out and look around for something new to chew on...here and there...  LMRA, affectionately known as the stinking LLAMA around here, just doesn't fill you up for more than a day or should it...we laughed the hype would come in premarket and did it ever.  This one belongs in and to the Deltas at Faber College, not Harvard.  

Well...this possible chew today is a quiet one, ATNI.  It was a favorite long ago, it has split and has appeared on the Nasdaq recently. It might be to our tastes after its Q report. Revenue 41.3 mln up 66%, net income 7.6 v 4.4m....53c vs. .36c(+47%).  ATNI (19.34 close) has been acquiring assets along the way but these numbers still beat all analysts expectations taking that into consideration. Same rules apply as always regarding going after things for breakfast, let the market show you if it likes it too.

What's "GREEN"?

...and up nicely to boot...between Journal and Market chat from yesterday ...ATNI, SYNL, MR, APKT.  Being selective means going with 'fresh' strength.

TWLL, Techwell, Inc.

TWLL profiled September 10th on DJIM http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/10/twll-at-14-or-lower-on-pullback.html  .......put in another solid EPS. That's right...re-visit, recycle DJIM EPS stocks. We added as it showed strength throughout the day and made a move on its all time highs late in the day. The record volume, excellent close bode well for further action. Last Q had 2 straight days of a move after EPS.(beginning of Aug.).

2pm chart just before move and DJIM buy in. Volume was 300K+, it doubled the last 2 hours!

*mentioned premarket, late in the day at Market chat

PVA, Penn Virginia Cp

PVA, manages coal properties and operates NG gathering/processing business'. We started watching Thurday off its EPS ($1.21 vs. $1.07) number which handily beat the analyst forecast(.83C avg.). We particularly liked the chart and Fridays morning volume indicated this one was found following EPS. A little help from the uptick in its segment and PVA finished over $74.  52 week highs are within walking distance for this energy co.