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« DJIM #20 2007 | Main | Taking more out... »
Monday
May142007

Leave some in, take some out....

This is the kind of market that rewards bold traders, as well as disciplined traders.    Stocks go up and down, as traders we try to do the best we can to come up with a sound strategy that takes advantage of such movements.    For most traders, dealing with the ups is always easier than dealing with the downs.   Unfortunately, dealing with the downs in the stock market is just as important, if not more important, than the other side of the market.   Of course, this is where the title of this journal comes in.   We have cashed out some of the plays in reaction to their action and kept some positions through to days end. There were just a few too many nice pops just after the bell not to take some off, the market turning down just added to the necessity to take more off.  CPY giving around 7 pts off fridays $80 alert buy in was one such trade. 

TNH, for those of you who's wondering what the heck a "blow off top" is, take a look at the action from TNH today.   In our opinion, this is a classic "blow off top" action where it opened strong (to $100) but closes poorly on way above average volume.    How do we deal with this one today?   When it first comes down from such a nice opening high and takes out previous day's high, that's a warning sign that the day may not go well.  We'd scale out some at that point.   The real selling trigger comes when it takes out previous day's opening price of around $92.    You may ask why not wait for the 9 ema for a confirmed sell signal?    Well, this is one of the strongest stock and because this one never had any rest from its $70 dollar breakout, it has extended a little too much.  Waiting for it to drop to 9 ema just doesn't make any sense since it was about 10 points below the low 90's.   There's no way we will watch a 10 point drop before deciding whether it's time to sell.  That's nuts!.  Basically, when a stock has had a long and extended run without any pullback, be very stringent on the sell trigger.    At this point, we'd be very cautious on any bounce as we think it needs some time to consolidate and work its way out of this "blow off top" action.  We probably spooked it last night by saying the higher it goes, the more volatlie it will become.lol.  Guess $100 was it's calling card saying it's scary up here.

FWLT, this is similar action to TNH except this isn't a blow off top.  This is in our opinion is a normal pullback.   Yes, we all knew the stock is extended since the earning and today got what we all pretty much have been waiting for.   What are we waiting for you ask?  We are waiting for an excuse to cash out and the overall market helped the cause.  Today was definitely the day for a pullback. We are gonna be watching this one closely for re-entry as there is not much too like here.

IDSA, so it made IBD list and we got our prime objective from this one from last week.   Yes, things can get interesting here since we don't know if the trading characteristic for this one may change for better.   Nonetheless, we got the run we asked for and we cashed out most of our position very early.  There's no reason to imagine any further run-up as this point unless the action says otherwise down the road.  Considering, we've been toying with this one since the 12's, todays move to $17 was more than enough for now.

NGA, we are leaving most of this one in, and we actually added some on today's strength.  We think it's very impressive today given the weakness of intraday indices and some other stocks.    What we like about this one is that 9 ema has caught up during last couple of days and support is there as it shows.

GTI, we are actually pretty amazed by the strength in this one.  Volume looks particularly interesting here.   There's definitely lot of institutional action going on as there's a number big blocks exchanged hands through out the day.     Maybe it's coincidence that this one is near $15 and it also has good IBD rating, but we think IBD is just a secondary spin to this one b/c of the heavy involvement of institutions.  In any case, this one looks good.

SPAR NTLS RCCC LXU SYNL TRCR AFAM managed to hold on to the green...yep and SIF too.