Sensible Trading

It's definitely easier to trade when everything is going up higher.    When things are stalling, it's definitely a good idea to let some off the table.   We are lightening up on our exposure somewhat today.

cheers,

DJIM stocks

By 10 am we pointed a certain 'stall' we were feeling in the mkt...by end of the day a deep snooze ensued as we kept hearing of the 'stall' and feeling it...a tick off resistance, a tick off support for the eg.nasd... the DJIA which now has 4 little stick man to show for the last 4 days...tell you the truth the feeling was more of malaise early in the morning..maybe it was last nights drink(s)...but more likely just an uneasy feeling for the market with our TRT, SYX, RIMM's near their DJIM highs. Best thing for us to do is try to lessen our exposure some more when our gut is telling us something, a load we all should have been reducing the past few days as the TRT, SYX are a good 40/60% since we introduced them... plus both stocks have provided a re-entry at 9ema for a second ride. Nothing is wrong with the stocks..its just where they are and how far they have come.... IAAC too since the reversal.  Lets not get greedy. We will now wait for a nice break and/or a nice close to get back what we have let go. If it becomes a pullback we will gladly add a 3rd time to some of these names. What might happen in the near future is a very volatile market depending on who is releasing that day...one good report...one bad report and so on taking the market with it, we'll stay on our toes but won't sway too fast one way as things can change by the next big name report.  Some of the stocks in our list are seemingly in a similar position to where EDU was yesterday...trading in a tight range. Except the CETV,CPY, DGIT sit near DJIM highs and seem to have found some sellers at these levels. Just like in EDU's case today or AZZ's yesterday.... we are waiting for confirmation of a move before adding...a move that will hold a break to the upside by end of the day. You don't want to hold a move like ANGN's yesterday where the break does not hold later in the day. Anyways, EPS season is here and extra cash to use is not a bad thing to have sitting around.  For those looking for intraday action...ACOR, NRPH provide plenty of squeeze for the day.     Charts updated for tomorrow.

Reshuffle...BVX added to DJIM list

Once in a while, we look at our portfolio and decide which ones are worthy of keeping and which ones just need to be off the list.   Last couple of days gave us a peak into what we wanted to change.    There are some choices that are obvious and others are just in the wait and see camp.  Now on to some stocks..

AZZ, this is probably a very good action given the low volume and next to no dmg kind of a pullback.   We are keeping eye on any kiind of momentum to chase it higher.

SYX, it was really fun while it lasted.   There's a very good likelihood that this play may be over, along with the IBD thing.    We are definitely not playing the bounce since we are only into making "easy" money.

EDU, earning is looming and if you happened to get a few while it's around $24, it may not be a bad idea using the strength to lighten up some.

BVX,  Demi mentioned it in the chat earlier with regard to the supply news with BSX.   After observing it for a few hours, we decide that it is very obvious that people like this news and may put this one in play.   We bought some today and will likely add if it holds up.   This action does look like a signal of the beginning of a runup.   As to how far it can run up?  At this point we don't know and we don't care.   As we always say, we'll trade it accordingly.

CLICK on green text for entry to Market Chat:

[Demi] (Reply) on Extended trading- Pre/AH » 

Many recall Jon's BVX from $3-4 range, teaming up with BSX for a product line might get it over ...

TRT, did anyone see where the pullback stopped today?  We noticed it was around $13.25, where that big block occurred a couple of days ago.  It could be coincidental or it could be the fact that it's when we started to put our bids in.    This is very much a real deal and volume and action suggesting this play is not over, by any means.

So it wasn't the drinks...

good!...but just sensible trading and a little gut work at work yesterday on the Journal. If our strategy to continue to take profits, lessen the load at the recent levels reached by the DJIM stocks wasn't enough...well... then the charts should have drawn you some lines in the sand for your exit in SYX,IAAC. There is no reason to keep the charts up for SYX, IAAC as we don't actively seek bounces, especially now as earnings season is upon us. Some comfort is the sell off in TRT and quick recovery which signals a resilient stock to us. Last night we said it never hurts to have extra cash on hand....today some of it was used to pick up an old favorite BVX which opened at 7.35 and now 8.5 AH. We mentioned DGIT today at 20K volume...end of the day it closed at a NCHigh and volume of 110k....but...the real volume hit BVX after 1pm breaking volume highs when we traded it earlier this year.

DJIM hold/hit list charts updated for Thursday at BT charts.

Update on Wednesday, October 11, 2006 at 05:58PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Remember this from the weekend DJIM#8...Director doing the buy

"Speaking of lining up the ducks...did you see the fat duck with 60k block at 13.25 show up and get swallowed up hole in a second near the close. You can't ask for anything better"

 http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0000732026&ticker=trt.

Hard to sustain the index move...

Of course, if the indices have another 7 or 8 days like today, we may have to rethink our strategy and perhaps include some bigger names.......  nah, that'd be just too easy lol      Ok, so if your portfolio is rocking in huge gains today, then you are probably getting to this page for the first time.    The DJIM type of stocks are definitely missing in action today and one of our favourites even had a nasty woosh today.    This is probably just the part of process as we call it.    Somtimes, there's just not much more you need to read into what's happening out there.    We are sticking to our system, sticking with what we are comfortable with and sticking to the type of stocks that have gotten us to this point.    

TRT, yes and yes!    The drop today is a little uglier than we are comfortable with and we did reduce our exposure in this one furthermore.    Right now, we have to take a wait and see attitude towards the action from it the next few days.    Thankfully, the earning season is about to begin and some of bigger semi co. can be a catalyst for TRT to pick up some steam.

MR, we are holding our fingers crossed because if you followed it since the IPO day, this one has a tendency to drop back down to $16 everytime it seemed to get some momentum.

Right now, we are keeping an eye on all of the DJIM stocks to wait for some trading development to come through.   At the same time, we are expecting to see some good earnings from small caps to come through in this seasonally a typical strong quarter.    Keep focused and rest up when not trading.

cheers,

Update on Thursday, October 12, 2006 at 09:46PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

As discussed the other day  http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/10/10/djim-stocks.html 

todays nice up day proved some of the names including TRT, even our large cap RIMM were in nose bleed space a couple of days ago as they did not participate in this rally. Taking a look at TRT.... it might be good to bring up a trading perspective. The charts shows 4 days of resistance between 14-14.50...today was the kicker as it failed to break higher again. One way to avoid a pitfall is to give yourself a mental stop on a toppy feeling flyer, it is usually somewhere around the previous days low if its respectable..in TRT case just above 13. (notice where the selling picked up). Of course a uptick in volume smells trouble and you could see that clearly by the first 10min volume bar..its never just one bar with a high flyer. Maybe everybody was busy with the large names and so the TRT was ignored at the 9ema for support...well that ain't good enough for us and we will wait for some confirmation to use this trip to 9ema area as a reason to return in force.

Just a quick note on SYX...todays report by SL was not a huge surprise.." A neg, the 'spinach' could be the filing issues, so do your own DD as always!. "     

 http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/15/syx-1340.html

BVX note in Market chat today.

"..........Adding today was adding to a non-event. This FDA clearance is really nothing and unfortunately some ran it up to the $9 level where others would gladly take profits after nearly a 25% run in a day. Its a DJIM stock now and we will trade accordingly, including taking some profits after waking to 9 level. A tad extended this premarket!. We thought it would break out yesterday on the news, we didnt think it wanted to test the recent highs so early or needed to."

DJIM holds/ hit list week #9

As the NFL takes on week #6, DJIM is on #9 running nose to nose with Da' Bears on record and the PF/PA spread, we are about collecting points except we are da' Bulls....After 8 weeks of solid gains including catching 9 moves of 25% and up since late August, we are quietly sitting with skeleton shares or none at all with most on our list waiting for a new earnings play(s) to come forward... or a bust out move like we recently had in AZZ, DGIT even if it is short lived from the ones on our list. These include some long followed DJIM's...CPY since $ 43,CETV from $60, MR an IPO.  So far the big names earnings releases are outperforming the 1 Alcoa, so things ahead look promising but that could change with one report as previously discussed. In the meantime, we will try catch a move here and there like BVX last week. Nothing new is worth taking on this weekend with the expectation of giving us a move DJIM style.

ACOR as per Market chat comments is one we still look to trade once some PR flow kicks in again.

EDU which is on its second DJIM run from $22 has earnings this week. Again, we don't hold into earnings but we will jump again if it is to our liking.                                          

RIMM, CETV, CPY all 10%+ DJIM's are all near tops which we want broken to add. We hold skeleton shares of these between us and will add if the tops look to be taken out. Exits are pretty clear on the charts for most of the DJIM's.  EML might be starting its crawl.

TRT has provided plenty of opportunity for those following since DJIM alert at $8+, we'll wait out the games and look for confirmation to go back hard. A start would be a close above the 9ema.

In between we look for DIVX, RVBD and now APKT to provide almost daily opportunities in the tech IPO fever. Some other names previously on the DJ Journal ANST,SIM,CSH, NEU also had a good week. Hopefully, after 8 weeks these names have made it to your lists. The point of our lists from week to week is so you may assemble a list of your own to concentrate on from what we trade and follow..... saving you lots of grunt work but still doing your own DD on the listed before making a trading decision.

Charts updated at BT charts....ACOR, AZZ, BVX, DGIT, EDU, EML, RIMM, TRT and the NDX

Resting for actions...

We have to admit, that we were really spoiled by the good action we've had since the end of Aug.     The rush of those good action, seemed to be pausing lately.   Of course, we are right at the beginning of the earning season and it's definitely a good reason to sit back and pick your target.   Many people like to position themselves well into an earnings season with some "good" stocks to perhaps catch a good earning report or two.   For us, we just like to position ourselves with cash.     We have done this(earning season) many many times and this time is no different.    What may be different about this quarter though is that mood is good and expectation is "probably" high.     In any case, seeing is believing and we are just going to wait for some good report to surface up from small caps and play our cards right.     We are also keeping a close eye on DJIM stocks, current and some former ones on the earning development.

We also have to note that there are some tradeable action throughout the day and most of which can be found in the MC section plus ideas from others visiting DJIM.   We do trade many stocks everyday but unless we are feeling confident that the stock has the potential to pull a meaningful move, we are not going to bother putting up every little runner on to clog up space and confuse readers. 

CHARTS UPDATED FOR TUESDAY TRADING IN BT"CHARTS incl:   ACOR-AXX-BVX-CETV-CPY-DGIT-EML-EDU-RIMM-TRT-NDX

CLICK HIGHLIGHTED GREEN TEXT TO ENTER MC:

DJ DAILY DISCUSSION LOG in Market Chat

[Demi] replies » 12:00-Plenty of trade in present and recent DJIM listed this morning...but is it only trade? We're being cautious for now for anything other than a trade. We'll wait for the afternoon action, we're in no hurry....

cheers,

EDU eps- profit doubles

EDU which we first bought Sept 13 and enjoyed a quick run from 22 to 28 and then again from 22 for another recent trip announced profits that had doubled this Q . It seemed it would be hard to get a read as Q numbers are not readily available and other factors such as no coverage yet but .73 per ADS/.18c cents seems like a very good number(21m in net), is this really in US dollars and not RMB's?. Revenue of 54m(+31%)this Q...EDU did 96mln for all of last year in a transition year.  Operating margins grew to 42% from 29%. Growth anticipated at 16.5-24.4% YOY next Q....not too shabby it seems.. but CC (analysts too) and the market will tell us what to do and figure out how fast EDU is growing.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/13/edu-entry-at-22.html    Sept 13 intro to EDU

Update on Tuesday, October 17, 2006 at 11:26AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

The market said no...it doesn't matter if you triple profits, the market news will have the upper hand. We've stated our position the last couple of days(mostly cash) and EDU won't make us jump back in as the market conditions don't warrant much new money to be deployed. As per MC trying a trade with ACOR to keep busy and look for a breakout, if not its just a trade.CETV is one breaking the trend a bit today... we mentioned yesterday needing volume

DJIM- EPS in full swing

Today's comeback for the indecies was almost as good as Da' Bears one last night... the eco #'s had the market punted away, but again the return team was waiting to run it back...seems Da' Bulls are waiting at every opportunity not to miss more of this ride up. Nice coincidence all these mergers come on what is really day 1 of earnings with so many familiar names kicking it off today...what they trying to say?...Anyways...again, we're expecting volatility day to day with the market at these levels and the effect of earnings weighing on the trend. This is fine as we have gone mostly cash, volatility like today is a good trading environment to use some of it. You don't need to carry too much overnight as you could get a lot done trading intraday without putting yourself at more risk ...a 5 dollar up swing in RIMM, this options bit is a non-event and the most recent selling pressure was due to it. Another $150 tgt posted in premkt, a nice move by DJIM listed AZZ...CETV got the volume and broke out and is just off all time highs. ACOR giveth and taketh...just like earnings season does!...Razor sharp MOT's know that well tonight, be careful out there.

CHARTS UPDATED AT BT CHARTS...

DJIM-premarket note- stocks of interest-APH,LCC

DJIM type stocks to look at this morning for possible entry.

Amphenol beats by $0.06, guides Q4 revs, EPS above consensus (APH) :Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.77 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.71; revenues rose 42.4% year/year to $636.4 mln vs the $602.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.80-0.82 vs. $0.77 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $640-650 mln vs. $625.50 mln consensus.

Update on Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 12:46PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Found a nice entry on the APH:)..what a move this morning on this EPS play!.

CETV now in uncharted territory with a little help from $69's the other day.!. Oct 16 Market chat-CETV at DJIM highs on low vol(17K) could move with a little help.

CPY- added some as it climbs to breakout possibility levels at $50 in CETV footsteps.

Update on Wednesday, October 18, 2006 at 03:18PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Yep....LCC a airline but it doesn't trade like one. We're trading some as a short term play with oil price and a target in the $80's by Prudential. Nice bounce off 50ma too.

not so GOOG'ilicious

(the markets)...we missed the memo on the 12,000 party too and instead have kept to ourselves and played and stayed with the recent DJIM mentions.

LCC has been a quick move to $48 and sits here at a interesting place...Resistance....while others like CAL,AMR continue on today. Call this a CNBC play as you can always decide the stocks fate as to what is going on in the world...day to day

DGIT like BVX we are waiting to maybe re-enter. It sits nicely near recent high, if it doesn't breakout we might remove both completely due to boredom. Charts we don't update daily now are ones which are ranging and need some juice before getting interesting again.

MR- quite a bit of trading premarket mid 16's. Just like when a stock starts to tank...we sell and ask questions later as to what is going on here at $17+. You can always re-enter if whatever it is deserves such.

CETV- we took some off recently as it became a 25% member of DJIM. Considering it has been the longest running DJIM stock, we will keep an eye on it and trade it accordingly.

Trading and Killing time...

Well, this week happened to be our least busiest week in the last while.   Doesn't it sound ironic when this week had every big name co.  releasing their earning and Dow broke 12k?   To us, it's just business as usual.    We typically don't get very active during the first couple weeks of earning season as most of the reports are dominated by household names.    But of course, if you happen to run a mutual fund with billions of dollars, this is the crunch time.   For us, we just sit back and look at all this in amusement.    Then again, if you happen to be a multi billion dollar fund manager and are reading our blog, we'd say you definitely need help. lol...Although, we love seeing the million dollar Hedgies coming by;)

For us, we trade because this is the only thing we know how and love.  But in order to have an edge, we have to trade in our own games.    Small caps have been our success and it's been this way for quite sometimes.    Just because the spotlight is on the big caps and indices at this moment, it doesn't mean that small caps have been buried deep in the mud.    All it really takes is a couple of awesome small cap runner that have spectacular earning report and perhaps two to three weeks of hard work, you'd be all set for the rest of the year.    The reason why we don't touch options or other sophisticated strategy here is that we are trying to keep trading to its simplest form, demand and supply.    We think we have a very good understanding of the psychology behind trading of small caps.   There's simply no hiding of emotions when it comes to small caps.     Believe it or not, when it comes to small caps, you can experience surprise, excitement, enjoyment, greediness, top of the world feeling, fear, denial, numb, anger.. all kinds of emotional feeling  within a span of just two weeks.    We love to trade around that kind of emotional environment so we can't wait till the majority of the small caps to start reporting in the coming weeks. (TRT was just early in being late).

Meantime, in order to keep ourself busy other than watching this ridiculous CNBC stuff, here's some stocks of interest.....

DIVX, we think this one is catching its GOOG connection one way or the other.     The chart looks like it's setting up for another possible run up.   We added some and will look for direction next week to trade accordingly.

MR, could this b/o be it?   The volume suggests it's the real deal but how many times we've been faked out by it before? lol    Of course, this one is gonna get our attention in the coming week.

SYNA, this one came to our attention last night when it guided up nicely.   Trading action is suggesting higher price to come.

DGIT, this one defiinely doesn't have the lust it had when we first initially found it, but it's nonetheless worth keeping your eyes on.

ACOR ITMN ILMN, when in doubt, go medical.   These three are also high on our trading list as they are definitely more immune to the sensitive side of the economic data.

some new stocks of interest this week included APH, ALB, RBN and most of the airline stocks....

cheers,

DJIM hold/hit list wk #10-added Amphenol, Divx, US Airways

Going into last week mostly in cash, we were able to use some of it off our alerts on CETV,APH, LCC. Late friday, we decided to add the often mentioned DIVX on DJIM for a longer term play as it caught some volume....well till the Oct 30th EPS day, maybe. The three additions last week put EDU,EML,BVX off to the side right now. We are not into quantity, but quality plays. CETV becomes DJIM 10th stock to do a 25+% move, the latest push coming after our mention Monday at $69 in MC. APH was a premarket watch Wednesday for a possible entry off earnings, while LCC was a pure idea play on oil falling lower. We don't believe in chasing, being the first ones in on the bell....instead we wait and usually find a pretty good entry later in the morning. APH provided such and ran quickly after pulling back some early, we feel this one might be on DJIM for a while.  LCC, really turned out to be the play we were looking for. By the end of the week most of the airlines literally took off....$45 to 50 is not bad for few days work. We will trade it with the jet stream of news including (EPS 26th).  EDU despite good numbers, never provided a 3rd DJIM opportunity to enter as a Motley Fool article took its wind despite good #'s...funny thing is MF always had a concern for valuation but it never stopped EDU fans before. Thursday's action was overdone but we will keep it on the sidelines.  Don't lose track of past DJIM winners, look at what AMIE did recently(new highs). We've already discussed BVX, DGIT late last week so you know what we are waiting for.  MR, which we sold the little we had into the gap is back on close watch. It seems the spark was a popular newsletter on Chinese stocks providing the rush, according to a fellow trader... usually this fuses out come day 2 as the herd sells to new unknowing blood. We'll see if those chasing the volume break this week are the stronger ones. ACOR is unbelievably starting to look more than just a trade. The stock has held up remarkably well without the usual sell off you see in momo stocks. Other DJIM's including RIMM,CPY,TRT have their charts up.  A few others of some interest were mentioned Friday.

Charts updated at BT charts include ACOR,APH,AZZ,CETV,CPY,DGIT,DIVX,LCC,RIMM.TRT

Update on Monday, October 23, 2006 at 01:44PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Thats 4 days straight for LCC and the airlines . Taking most off here $ 51.20's after a 15% ride as the index plays with resistance.

SYNL-Synalloy

Excellent Q from this very thin traded, low float stock (5mln). Anything to do with pipes and chemicals we usually like;)...As usual we don't chase and end up holding the top, watch reaction..volume etc for a possible entry as we always say. .39 vs. 09 EPS for Q (2.4mln vs.525k Net.one time small gain in there it seems...still this look good with eps in the .30's., backlog sweet

DJIM recap

Yesterday, we used AMIE as an example of not tossing the DJIM stocks away after the initial runs with us. One point of our DJIM lists is that the reader start a list to follow this niche, narrowing down the suspects and recycling the familiar names like we do. Actually received an email this weekend from a reader reminding us of CTCM and a potential set up. It's great some are keeping past DJIM stocks close by.(especially today). Same goes for IAAC which we mentioned in MC just past 3pm and not a second later kaboom as BT likes to draw it. The other good reminder is in SYNL and that is.... dont chase until you see and feel that a stock will be in play. Sure some flipped for a few points but there are others that might be feeling stuck higher tonight. The volume was nothing spectacular to warrant a in play stock for today but we still picked up a few shares into the close as the numbers do look very good. We usually post a follow up when we enter if time permits as in TRT etc.

DIVX a pick up friday had a nice day and put in a NCHigh, CETV as well. LCC, we posted selling it off 51+ as there is some resistance here for the index...will look for another entry in size later. RIMM keeps knocking on 114...  should go through soon with some power if the mkt keeps this up. Some huge blocks showed up this afternoon 113+.

Charts updated at BT charts include ACOR,APH,AZZ,CETV,CPY,DGIT,DIVX,LCC,RIMM,TRT, (NDX)... Also visit Market Chat for other ideas from traders during the day.