Valuation blah blah

We had a stock(AIRM) that received 3 valuation downgrades over a week or two earlier this year, we stuck to it and watched it climb higher and higher. Today one Dgrade on valuation even has a tgt price increase in CSH and there is another based on valuation to hold on TWLL by needy Needham...on the other hand they just initiated GRB($14) with a $18 target after it just got dropped down by Sidoti...good timing... Just a game isn't it?....everybody likes a pullback to pick up on the cheap. You have no control over when they start to chat, just another reason to always take some off the table when a price/volume opportunity presents itself like yesterday in TWLL after a quick 20% trip. Good thing is TWLL is a recent IPO with 4 other houses that might step in on any selling to serve their own interests.

FOMC

Meeting is a day away!    We are not trying to analyze the whole situation like an economist but rather trying to focus on the potential trading impact surrounding these kind of events.      Market is suggesting a pull back ahead of the meeting at this moment and it does feel that it might be the right  idea.     The trading environment is usally choppy around a FOMC meeting.  Recalling from the past, the small caps either don't budge that much or get taken down by the index.    We've lightened up quite a bit yesterday and also further trimmed our positions today.    Keeping some skeleton shrs of our favourites here and there.

So what to expect?   Nothing!   Whatever is going to happen is going to happen.   We just have to react to the action accordingly, and deal with it afterwards.

Never dull in DJIM

Crazy action in SNCR, big bids came in...CPY getting attention and bot more this afternoon. CTCM another one we use for bounce is having a good day.

Update on Tuesday, September 19, 2006 at 06:09PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

As we cap off our first month here at DJIM...our first ever listed stock hit the 25% benchmark we set in finding stocks. AMIE joins a few others we have introduced since August 20 for 25+% moves (BTJ, FNET,GROW, ANGN, EDU). Unfortunately AMIE did it when we were not playing favorites in this market and sold her off. This hurt me more than Jon as I like the crawlers more...but 25% is 25% via a momo run or a month long crawl!. I'm sure it will be picked up again shortly, but as we keep stressing take your points/profits and recycle.

SNCR if you bought early, you probably sold as it blew over $11. A bid of 43000 started chasing the stock up and it got filled big time much higher. Who knows what this was about?. Be careful.   GROW, we finished with for now after selling yesterday as well. SYX looks much better at the close today. CPY was getting swallowed up 43.50 area. TWLL held it together through a rough market and a Dgrade...not bad

More Valuation blah-SNCR

SNCR gets cut by GOLDMAN to neutral (good timing w/software w/Oracle:) and cheap shares show up under $10 TY. But...they raised the price target by 20% to 12!!. Explains the shenanigans yesterday doesn't it.

Goldman downgraded the company's shares to "neutral" from "buy" and raised its price target on them by $2 to $12, saying their valuation more accurately reflected the brokerage's view on growth. ......In a research note, the brokerage also increased its earnings forecasts and said the company's growth prospects from new Voice over Internet Protocol customers remains very high.

CTCM needing a $24+ close

CTCM mentioned yesterday, a clear break of an upper trendline yesterday and now the 24 mark. Very volatile remember.

Update on Wednesday, September 20, 2006 at 06:20PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Continues to be the volatile trade, new highs reached but as usual given back..still a NCHigh. Volume at 800K was impressive for what looked like a nice 60min chart break about to happen late yesterday. Previous high was back in Aug.(1.2M). The break happened early today and flew past its wall at $24 that has been building for a few months. Still want that 24+ close to hold it longer term..like the story here a lot since discovering it last EPS day, don't like the IPO firms involved jockeying the stock around....So will continue to look at this as a trade bounce play until we get a better closing price.

Post FOMC Meeting...

This is actually one of the least volatile FOMC meeting day for as long as we can remember.   From hours before, minutes after the announcement, and right through the end, the index probably hasn't moved more than 10 pts in either way.    Obviously traders are complacent about what they are hearing and most people liked this action enough.

For the DJIM stocks, of course we are having another great day.

SYX, this one was posted last week b/c we thought it has the potential of making an IBD run.   The stock hung in tough in the 13s during the last few days despite some intraday weakness here and there.   Alas, it's almost inevitable that these 99 99 rating stocks will always come through, given the appropriate float.   It definitely didn't disappoint and busted through that all important $14 psychological mark.    The rest, is just history.   We added quite a few today welcoming the change of pace of trading.    The volume today indicated there's more(positive) things to come.   Momentum again is in the air and we can definitely smell both greed and fear(of not getting in).    How high will it go?   Nobody has crystal ball but if you trade according to the action, these kind of stocks usually give you more joy than pain.

EDU, we added some of this one here and there throughout the day.   We like its action and think it may put in a bottom around $26.50.   This may not have the IBD kind of momentum but the buzz and story behind this one is more than enough to make this one to go significantly higher.

We are also adding BDC SIM(IBD play)and CSH to watch.  

Some Update

Ok lets jus get right to it...

SYX, this stock is just following through nicely.   We didn't do any addition but have traded it a couple of times already.

EDU, this quiet action to us is a prelude to another leg up perhaps?  We'd like to think so and once the volume picks up on the right direction, we'd be adding more.

CSH, this stock gapped up and amazingly it held the gap most of the morning.   We added some when it looks like it just wants to go higher.

CETV, analyst day and Demi was quick to point it out.   Action looks good.

NGPS, most of us have probably had this one on watchlist for a while.   If the breakout today holds, we are adding it to the DJIM list for top trading prospect.

SIM, this is a steel stock btw, in case anyone's wondering.   It's definitely in an IBD mode but we would caution ppl that it does trade in tendency with the rest of the steel sector.   Our feeling is that if it can hold at least high 14s through tomorrow, chances of it going making it to IBD is pretty good. 

ICE, after a couple of days of pullback, this one may be setup again.   We are watching this one closely today for possible entry.

one last thing, people don't forget to go check our "market chat" section often since many ideas, charts and news are posted there periodically throughout the day.

cheers,

Update on Thursday, September 21, 2006 at 11:58AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

....isn't it fun to hold DJIM stocks when the market is surfboard flat;)

..a few cralwers

CPY...coming to $46..imagine some volume on this one

AMIE...nice turn and back near highs.

DJIM stocks not a sensitive bunch...

The market continues to show how sensitive it is to any data..In the meantime DJIM stocks just keep on rolling....today ignoring the Philly cheese surplus shrinkage and concerns over steel demand. What was SIM thinking?. IBD it seems as was our selection last week SYX.  Again, don't forget to take some points off the table...especially when you're outperforming the rest of the market. (If SYX finishes $14 one day, don't ask if we're still holding?).....CPY just keeps on ticking, CETV exploded to $70 from a revenue guidance increase. Despite a flat start to the day in the indecies, most of our listed were very green and many were able to hold most of the gains into the close. Speaking of closes, did you catch the ICE..ice baby run end of day..We did after mentioning it this morning and have added it to DJIM. The NGPS we forgot about as it was just running on a contract rumor and didn't hold the break we pointed out was needed. The quiet techs SNCR, TWLL need a little peace after the runs and the shock of being D graded!. EDU can rest too, don't you think?...good article in MC to keep you interested. Its is pretty clear from BT's charts where you want AMIE,UIC,WBD to be if you want to take a new position.

Charts updated for friday's trading day.

Snapshot of DJIM moves today     http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/charts/DJIMTOPGAINERS.jpg

TRT at $8.50 open

Don't be overzealous in your pursuit of trading glory but do place TRT on your DJIM list potential wish list. Believe us nobody will care for you if raise your white jockeys on a stick for rescue at the always potential morning top..gap. This semi burns and the earnings caught fire. It brings with it a teeny weeny float. We prefer to let the open digest and decide from there if we are adding. Again, remember some catch the juice, some FCPO out..watch the tape and you'll know soon enough..22 v .02, nice backlog..more later..possibly;)  22k so far in premkt at 9 am will not decide its day or short term future.

Update on Friday, September 22, 2006 at 10:15AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Very reasonable open with a slight imbalance to boot. Have taken a stake as it has not traded much higher(under 9) from premkt. Volume is good

Update

We're not looking to position back on the big dips in some of the favorite names here. Our jitters in GROW came to life today, we don't care why or whats going on to step back in. Another one we noted as a closing position Tuesday is also getting smacked (AMIE)..buying opp maybe...but not today for us. (BT had a nice flag on it last night). Yep, and SYX as mentioned yesterday..don't ask;)..a $13 to $16 week was pretty good to some besides DJIM...Is there another opportunity for a move today?. Maybe if the thinking turns to who replaces GROW at #1, we'll start getting back in.  We've narrowed our positions down earlier this week as noted, seemingly just in time but we are still biting on some of our quiet carrots for the steak size stake in TRT...not so much on the plate, so the TRT looks like a steak!

..the follow up on TRT

We couldn't have been more impressed with this unknown thinly traded tech yesterday. First was the open, a little stalled because of the trade imbalance but perfect in the 8.5 range without exuberance to take it higher..good job AMEX. This provided a excellent opportunity to begin a position for many, the volume dictated there was going to be some interest to last the day. We are impressed by the interns at briefingcom that scour the trading underworld;)... the countless email suggestions only took a few hours to get a column up on TRT. We know this usually takes many days, weeks for the ones we put up over time on a undiscovered stock. Impressive was it didn't get the Briefing chasers to bid it up and leave you on Monday..again good job Amex guy for making so many shares available around $9. Now to the numbers, usually we look for sequential growth and not just look at .22 vs .02 YOY and say wow and jump in as some like to do. In this case it is noted that sequentially the numbers are on par to YOY #'s, so it was a go! There is a turnaround here clearly with nice revenue/EPS growth sequentially/YOY with growth doubling from product sales. I don't think you can find anything negative if you go deeper into the books but you're welcome to try. We like the China connection, we like the insider buying this year. If these shares were on the block at $9, we don't mind at all if it appears publicly soon. The tiny float, the volume and its accumulation under $9 was almost a perfect set for more to come. Yes, its hard to believe we are on a 3rd tech stock in 3 weeks but these are unknown small ones which fit into our books nicely and stay to form of our stock selection. If you believe here we go for a market spin downwards and it happens, TRT might hit a roadblock....we have seen many get stopped in their tracks just because of the timing of their stellar EPS...take that into consideration. This week has narrowed our hitlist to basically a watch list as many have hit their heads against recent high walls (WBD, UIC,CTCM)..all these need a sustained breakout to be traded again....others we sold off early in the week like GROW,AMIE have just fallen off after 25% DJIM moves and we very rarely feed on potential bounces..time will tell as will the question if SYX, SIM run for the roses resumes this upcoming week. So the list this week will be small  but you never know when a new one will appear on DJIM...we hope TRT is this weeks special on the heels of the new entries to DJIM over the last 3-4 weeks. Quality over quantity here!.

Update on Sunday, September 24, 2006 at 01:37PM by Jon

To sum it up, TRT is exactly the kind of small cap play we are looking for given the events that took place on Friday 22nd.    We believe that this stock could be the first major winner of this fall quarter.   It may be a semiconductor company, but the earning speaks for itself and more importantly, action suggests the stock is in play for a movement up.    Then there's this 2.2 million float.    It is imperitve for a small cap to have a tiny float in order to run like a champ.    Between me and demi, we practically have played every single small cap runner that had a tiny float within the past few years.   The most satisfying runners, are of course the ones that were triggered by a suprise upside earnings quarter.     Now this co. may not deliver another impressive, growth oriented quarter like they did this time, but we are really tryiing to only play out the psychological thinking for the next couple of months.   In another word, we are trying to play the expectation for the next earning report.      This also brings to another point where this co. has no analyst coverage and very low institutional sponsorship.   The advantage of that is that you can run your wild guess on the co.'s growth and earning estimate for next q, next year and etc.    DJIM bought quite a few shrs of TRT on Friday and will trade it very aggressively in the coming weeks.    We feel that even though the mkt is sluggish, but it's hard to imagine the mkt would crash at the beginning of an earning season.

DJIM-BT's Sunday chart skool...SYX

Update on Sunday, September 24, 2006 at 01:58PM by Jon

Just a small note on SYX!   Even though SYX acted like it had a "reversal" on Friday, this IBD play in our opinion is far from over.    It took HSR, COGO.... at least a couple of attempts to get on the IBD list and none of them had the 99 99 rating.    Thankfully, SYX can not be dragged down by oil price like BTJ did.    So odds is still favouring very much on the long side on the pullback. 

$2 dollar ticket on...

We didn't get too excited with todays end of the Q buying. Most of the DJIM stocks have had their buying and are way off the highs they enjoyed with us. We are not chasing any at these levels as pointed out this weekend (those highlighted). We want to see them trading near the highs again or have a strong reversal.  We prefer to look at the new names we included last week ...NGPS(nch), CSH.... TRT got a little out of hand at the open, but provided some nice entry points when it pullbacked today. 

This took a little work but I got Jon to share in a $2 dollar ticket;)......ACOR and $10 ...sometimes you just gotta have some fun and let some ride.

CPY (nch)new closing high.

Update on Tuesday, September 26, 2006 at 07:53AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

We do say we go where the volume and momo appear, so it's no surprise we got dragged into ACOR yesterday. This a purely a story stock now, sort of reminds us of the the enthusiasm for NTMD when it came on the scene. Noticed this morning it was well over $9 AH after closing at $8.50. We may get our $10 target sooner than we thought, maybe more as there are 3 targets we've seen ($12,14,14) in the last 24 hours. This is a special situation stock with lots of volatility in store short term . There is some room to move if you can trade it carefully. What started as a $2 ticket..grew a bit by the end of the day for us. Still this is not to be confused with anything like TRT.

DJIM -update SYX, ACOR

If you got a spare eye to use from ACOR..SYX looks to be doing what we have said to watch out for. We have gone back in some. Even with ACOR AH price, this one is added to the 25% DJIM club move as it trades in the $11's.

DJIM-CPY just celebrating its 50

This crawler profiled Sept12 has kissed $50 on a clean break with some early vol. If 50 plays a psyc wall, pullbacks are a win anyways.