Into the trading week (Dec 19- )
Monday, December 19, 2011 at 01:00AM Coming off a -3% SP loss on the week, the US markets revert back into the red alongside all Global markets with 2 weeks remaining. Fortunately, it is only the US markets that have a chance to finish in the green for 2011.
Although, last week starting off with quite negatively with a commodity linked sell-off, the last 2 days give hope as things ‘settled” down. Still, the losses may have settled, but each day the early over shot gains were all reverted back as 50/20 MA convergence acted as resistance. On Friday, as suggested Gold and Oil bouncing may bring market back to those levels. It did, unfortunately it wasn’t enough for that day. Overall, the underlying tape looked better as high beta also performed better. These tape factors should allow the market to sooner than later break the resistance, if only because of a lack of liquidity and a lesser chance of negative catalysts. Any crippling news is likely to be held back for early 2012 in the holiday spirit. Of course, nobody is sending“Happy Holiday’s” cards to the rating agencies, so the market is still on the edge of its seat to see what S&P has up its chimney.(see notes on France and S&P impact from last week). Looking ahead to the week, this is the only visible impact to market direction. Otherwise, all sides of the market seem to be happy to pack it in for the year.
Earnings come from the softies’, ORCL RHT, TIBX. After all the negative announcements from the ‘hard’ware types, software is usually the ‘safe’ haven in tech, so these companies will be closely watched for tech contagion. If (ADBE) is any indication from last week, this group will provide relief.