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YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK
« Skeptical.. | Main | DJIM #33 2008 »
Friday
Aug152008

Who to cheer for?

Unlike the ongoing Olympic games, where everyone clearly has his/her favorite country-team-player to cheer for, we just can't say the same is true for this particular market.     One thing is for sure, there's not going to be a "Michael Phelps" type of stock/group come out to cheer for before the games conclude.    Instead, the news of an Olympian athlete throwing his Bronze medal onto the mats in disgust is something many can relate to when it comes to this market.  Simply, there are no golden opportunities in this market, no records falling... only in Beijing.

So the end score of today's action shows we are up.    That's about it really!   There's no cheer, no emotion, and no excitement to look forward going into the next day's trading.  Cheering for USD and a follow through decline in our 'skeptical' commodities was it today and probably Friday.  (follow USD through $XDE).  A rising dollar is beginning to look more attractive to foreigners as their economies go to hell.  

We never thought our trading gig would be as boring as it is these days.     Unfortunately, it's inevitable to go through a period of boredom when the market was preceded by a long period of excitement and high drama action.   Guess, we just have to accept it as part of this job.    We can't always feel like we are trading on the edge.    Nowadays, it feels we are trading to just stay awake!

Joking aside,  we think this market needs leadership!    Familiar or not, someone has to take a step forward and lead the race.  Oh yeah, we aren't talking about the recent 2 day move in Shipping stocks either because we want to see leadership that can carry the entire market higher.  To think leadership emerging from a group that just experienced 23 consecutive down days in it's BDI index is insane.!    A fairy tale that this 2 day move is indicating another 'inflation shock trade' coming is just as crazy.   This is as if to say the $USD/Oil don't exist.    BTW, GS noted today the index will fall 40% and 47% in the next 2 years.   At this moment,  it doesn't feel like anybody has any clue on what's going to happen with the economy, oil price, inflation, or credit issues one or two months from now!    How do we come to that conclusion?   You can simply tell by the action from the market and those who are calling "the turning points" on CNBC endlessly!     It's likely unfair to give this kind of opinion in the month of August!   Oh boy..What's going to happen when the fall trading season starts and many return with sunstroked ideas and fishing tales?.

If you really want to carry some positive trading momentum into September, you have to continue and be very selective with this market.    Chasing the top gainers only works to a certain extent and it may exhaust you out sooner than later.    Sticking to plays that are close to 52 week high with recently released good reports may be the better choice and this is what DJIM has been doing lately as some set up in our eyes.  Hopefully, you took our cue on ILMN potentially repeating a AXYS move from a recent journal and the follow up Alert before yesterdays nice 4%+ move.    Oh yes, we also have to adjust to the (slower) pace of trading too.     Now, we just hope that we do enough grinding so that we don't have to later on in the year.