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Friday
May232008

a blessing?

It is going to be one long summer if the market gets oil massaged tick by tick.  Watching the market indices tick upward or downward on every Oil movement was incredibly boring and frustrating while holding in a tight trading range.    Hopefully, this obsession fades some over time, but at this point its clear nobody wants to do anything or dare to go against oil.     Thursday's trade may have had a lot to do with trading desks being emptied before the long weekend and Friday may be more of the same unless we get a short covering rally of sorts.    If you were still short heading into a 3 day layoff after a big drop with the chance of news come Tuesday...would you not cover?.      This would be a blessing as nothing witnessed Thursday gave hope of a reversal.      Maybe it's wishful thinking, but it's the only thing we can see happening Friday to initiate an intraday trade.      Despite the modest green in the major indices, we were hardly impressed with the NASD pulling off a +16.   Reason is the action in AAPL, BIDU, RIMM simply continued to suck even after the big stumble this week.   Considering we always use these stocks as a measuring stick of sorts on the market, we were disappointed and left wondering wazzup?.     We're not going to get the Financials leading us out of this,  so we need the techs to do something to lead out of this oily mess and it needs to include the above.    Maybe Merrill Lynch is thinking this by raising AAPL target to $215 from $186 this morning..lol. 

Early in the week in DJIM #20 (below) , we discussed the possibility and need of a pullback in Shippers and Solars.   Well, we 're getting one..one that gained steam yesterday for quite a few familiar names.     The difference though is our plan to buy the dips was in a healthy market, not one that has been drastically damaged this week.    The playing field has changed since and so we're clarifying this buy dip strategy here.    We can't see ourselves accumulating these names just yet despite the big haircuts.    Of course, trading opps' will present themselves as bargain hunters will come in,  so trade them if you can watch them all day, just don't love them again and take them home with you for too long.    Letting this selling play out and waiting for the market/ individual sector to make a move up first is how we're approaching this.    The same can be said for the rest of the stocks in our watchlist.

Shippers,  with EXM earning out of the way and DRYS set to report AH, we feel this sector is desperately in need of a pullback.    The further it moves up without a healthy pause, the more likely the group can take some beating on the next pullback.     We'd love to get back into some with sizes on dips though.    At the moment, the risk/reward is only good if we do intraday flips.

Solars, enough is enough, already! Lol    Ok, it seems it's never enough for these solars!   Our favorites have changed recently SOL CSIQ ENER... are just behaving like wild animals and we'd concentrate on these names.    At this point, there's no technical setup and the only spirit out there when comes to the solar sector is buy as many as you can!   Ok, again, we like pullbacks in this group and otherwise we'd only resort to day trades.

Have a great long weekend!