Is it a keeper?

Is the reversal the beginning of stock rally keeper?   Well,  it seems the only ones not giddy by the close were DJIM traders and Art Cashin.  Even the biggest bears in blog land seemed to have changed hats!.    Honestly,  it was quite disappointing to see the market rebound to do another 1 hour rally,  we've seen enough of them lately only to be tossed back to reality only a few hours trading hours later.    Before Friday's trade,  we said we may just get a memorable crying game come Monday and it was definitely that as panic spread all over the world.   Unfortunately ,  we basically moved more than everybody else being down 8% on top of the 400+ drop on Friday after the 'vote'.     What we did is basically even out our losses to the worlds by jumping back up 300-400 pts.   Now we wait for reaction across the world indices in the morning to see if anyone was impressed by the reversal here.   Probably not!.    Give us a co-ordinated worldwide rate cut by week's end and we can talk about a decent short term rally,  until than all that has happened is we're just a little more open to trading long possibilities this week.    We're not concerned about catching a bottom,  especially in times of incredible volatility...but , we are anticipating a massive rally sooner than later as the ' trillion' ++dollars  we've talked about starting to come off the sidelines.   The VIX reaching mid 50's implies the SPX could be 50% up or down over the next 12 months, it basically shows what the expected move could be and its quite a range of outcomes.  That's a potential massive rally.    Besides a coordinated global rate cut,  we need to see short term credit markets see reduced stress, improved liquidity after the TARP,  but we need to wait for this to show signs before we can have any rally of substance.    We also need to see leadership emerge and 1 hour doesn't do it!.    Anyways, we're closing in on a lifetime golden opportunity, but we're not there just yet,  just hold on some more before you get your Prince albums out and "Party like it's 1999" all over again!. 

..Stop the insanity!!

Just when you think you've seen everything,  you're left with a day of dizzy spells from pre- market to the close!.  The extreme volatility is a sign the market 'is full of it ',  full of news that it can't digest properly as it's stuffed into you at every hour leaving you choked up!.    The VIX remains at elevated levels and down volume most times looks sickly,  yet these signs of a final sell- off are not there yet.    Seller exhaustion or capitulation are not there, despite the volatility today,  the selling is still orderly with buyers coming in off and on during the day.   Stocks remain caught in the selling pressure,  it's simple as that as all seem to be waiting for that final...get me out now, no matter at what price! 

A few developments outside the credit, liquidity issues,

• MON,  reacted 'well' to 'average' earnings and this spread to other names.  LNN, as well.  At this point, if the mkt reacts well to ho-hum earnings it may be a good sign.
• IBM, raised guidance.  This takes some stress caused by SAP's numbers on the tech's.
• MT, the steel giant re-affirmed
  

The hope here is let the market turn it's focus away from all the 'bailout' stuff around the world ( to some of the above) and let it take it's course of working through the credit markets.   Also,  if the financials show signs of shaking off the lifting of the shorting cap,  it could be a huge positive for trading day as well.

..".snowball effect "...

....."Just when you think you've seen everything"...yep, we're using that line again!..  One thing is it has become easy to calculate percentage moves quickly on the indexes with the DJIA and SPX hovering around 10,000 and 1,000 this week.  That's the only silver lining ..lol...   We mentioned in alerts Wednesday the technical levels to watch and when we re-visited 970 today again, it became clear 950 was in it's sight.    The inevitable drop occurred as 950 was cut and SPX fell another 4% in about 40minutes.     Was this the.., " it's simple as that as all seem to be waiting for that final...get me out now, no matter at what price!" .  We wish it was, but the fact it happened in only 45 minutes makes us wonder who really was around and/or had the chance to throw in the towel or call their brokers...finally?.   No matter what happens Friday, why can't they just mark Columbus' arrival to America by closing the market Monday for a day!..   How ironic would that be?.   Give us a 3 day break,  give the global leaders the time to work out something right for once..     Anyways, we've wanted the Armageddon gap,  but we just not might get it out of the way tomorow.    We may never get it and we never need it if we keep losing 20% a week.  One day,  we just may get a small gap down and just keep rising.     It's a hard call,  every rule seems to have been broken and historic evidence may longer hold.     Don't let overnight Global markets fool you as they' re only riding our coattails here.   We should ride their coattails and halt our markets!.    One thing to watch is the Euro mkts during day, we use the $TOP on our platforms.    A key later might be the LEH CDS auction,  GE won't be as they just guided a few weeks ago and even if the world seems to be torn apart in that time, it's doubtful they will make too much noise as meeting targets from 2 weeks ago is not exactly the highest bar.   

Flip a coin for Friday,  if something worthwhile starts to show up, we'll alert.  Otherwise, it just may be more of the same volatility with nothing coming out of the day by close.

..today is 'history'..tomorrow is a mystery

The Calvary consisting of  Treasury,  Fed,  FDIC has been coming in shooting bullet after bullet,  finally today the arsenal finally hit in one 936 point historic strike.   Of course,  it couldn’t have happened without its allies across the pond getting it all started with their plan.   The biggest bullet is the anticipation of the one to be announced tomorrow,  this was the late afternoon rush higher with the prospect of  US government buying preferred equity stakes to get at the credit crisis.  This should unfreeze the big freeze going on now in the credit markets.  Actually, it better..it must!

A tremendous bounce off a probable climatic Friday continued, unfortunately this gigantic move today has come with government intervention tomorrow, we all know to well these interventions have led to sell- offs.  Run today,  sell -off tomorrow is a high possibility now considering the magnitude of the move into the news.   Bottom or no bottom, today’s 20% ++ moves were too fast,  no matter how beat up stocks have been…. 20%-30 is really not that much considering stocks are down 50-100% in months,  if not in a few weeks.  It was early October that big caps were falling 20% in days..CAT AA,  not to mention last weeks beatings.

Today is possibly once again another opportunity for shorts to line up earlier than they had possibly ever dreamed of.  So, is confidence restored all of a sudden?.  Hardly,  that’s why it is just a relief rally until proven otherwise.   Bond markets closure today also had an effect to allow stocks to run wild, a lower USD and higher Oil possibility noted heading into today’s trading day also played a vital role in the fever, especially in the commodity stocks.   As pointed out Friday morning,  we always favour high beta stocks in any rally and those were some of the greatest point gainers today….BIDU, GOOG FSLR MA etc.   The only group we liked last week was the AG-Chem trade and those fared well again and are the only group near their highs from last week…MOS POT MON CMP CF.  

We have not seen any change in the steel, coal picture worldwide to get back on the wagon.   

What we need to see now,

• Improved liquidity,   watch for the spreads, LIBOR etc starting with the Bond Markets re-opening. We’re are not going anywhere fast if this bank intervention does not solve the problems.  It should, but it doesn’t mean the market will keep on flying tomorrow.

• Leadership emerge, today everything was up and you can’t decipher if and what may lead.  There has to be leadership for a market to move higher.   We all should be looking in this direction as this where you’ll want to park some money.

• Earnings,  as noted last week this is a crucial tale as it focuses on the economy worldwide.   We need to see stocks react favourably one way or another.   Considering stocks are so beat up, some undervalued it will be interesting to see how they react to their reports.   A stock may not need to ‘ blow out’ a report to move higher,  we’ll watch for stocks to move higher on just average reports to see if a trend is forming where earnings reports are cooked in.   In this economy, we’re not anticipating blow outs to move stocks as in the past few years.

Garage Sale...

Bottom line….is we’re back at Thursday’s lows before all the latest shenanigans!.  Today was just another historic headline day in terms of ‘records’ as the SPX sold off 9%.   Simply, there is little positive to say about this market as the impact of government intervention to improve liquidity is not making a difference.   So far, credit markets are showing only little slight improvements.  As we pointed out this week until it does we can’t move forward along with the other 2 points of finding leadership/ earnings visibility.    Simply, negative noise has spread to recession noise because of unknown visibility on the macro economy.   It seems we’re of the minority this week while the majority has been pumping a bottom, buy this market since the weekend and joyfully proclaiming their wisdom after, earlier this week.     Instead, we’ve kept a level head ( hell, even threw a OIH short today from $99 ) and only spoke of preparing and noting what we need to see before diving in.  Well, wisdom shenanigans have lost investors at least a sleeve off their shirts , as stocks tumble hard the past few days.   All the bullets shot by the Calvary are a step towards better days, but right now it’s still seemingly one step forward, 2 steps back. What we need is 2 steps forward  at least and this is what in part,  we pointed out yesterday…”Follow- through is key”. There is no point risking building positions back into the market until this changes. The other important part we discussed yesterday was for 2 days we did not see end of day, “ forced selling” from insiders/ hedgies/ mutual fund redemptions due to margin etc.    Well, it seems this was only an orchestrated move of allowing the markets to run fast upwards, move prices higher to only get out at better prices.   The forced selling resumed in the last hour in a fast and furious manner signalling this routine is not over!!.   This is the biggest negative of the day!.    This is only gives the retail investor more reason to sell end of the day, anticipation of what the big boys will do takes over and than we have everyone selling the market off.

Due to the crazy volatility, it is essential to stick to intraday trades, considering shares to short are difficult to find in many a commodity play,  it is best to stick to things like the OIH that are very liquid when you see action like today.   When, not if the market rallies again,  we remind to go after the high-beta stocks for the day or just play something the SSO (ultra S&P).   You can keep away from individual stocks and just play these 2 examples, both ways.   It is seemingly useless to build long positions slowly in increments as so many talking heads suggest.    You will lose confidence quite quickly after days like this following this strategy.   You will make more money in a 'real rally' sooner than later,  you do not need to catch the bottom in a stock(s) now.

DJIM #42, 2008

Just another wild week, even a modestly flat close on Friday was spun from another 7% range from hi- low on the SPX.   Based on Thursday’s trade, our tone had changed towards the market and Friday morning the investing world woke up to Buffett’s, “ Buy America. I am”.     Buffett reinforced he was buying Thursday morning,  but stopped as the markets were rallying.   The way we look at this is simply what we believe now in starting positions for either intraday or longer trades and that is buy on the dips.    This example is well- served from Fridays action,  we noted night before to maybe start some homework and this included looking back into the commodity stocks.    The morning started with a gap down and the commods‘ followed suit tracing the $CRX, OIL (OIH our oil vehicle) to nice gains till profit taking ensued around 1:30pm in the broad market.    In consideration of the daily wild swings, buying dips beats trying to catch a runaway move that can start to flop by 1:30 like on Friday.   If commodity plays continue to do act well as in the last few days,  the late day sell-off may have been another dip opportunity.    Some days,  you’ll just get lucky and forget about accumulating and just take the profits generated that day, eg a POT run of up to 10pts or any of the other nice low-hi ranges in the commodity stocks witnessed. CMP, is our safe play favorite here as it's got more going for it (diversified) as in it's salt business with winter coming.

The big picture remains, a faltering global economy,  latest U.S figures confirm recession  ( latest retail numbers, homebuilders survey new cycle low,  early October factory surveys from the Philadelphia Fed (down to -37.5) and New York Fed (-24.6).......plunged !),  hit with additional financial credit shock  that isn’t going away overnight,  despite signs of subtle improvements, thawing of the credit markets late in the week.     The severity of the damage is hard to gauge and we just have to trade around it,  even if the result is the worst recession since the early 1980’s.    The consumer will tell the tale of how long and how deep of an economic contraction this is going to be.  Right now, hope is short and shallow.  Last week’s rebound in US and Japanese stocks,  amid awful economic data, is the first sign of a resistance level.     It is encouraging that equities went up this week even as economic data continued to deteriorate.     Equity markets gained 4% for the week after the previous week’s 20% crash.  Daily volatility remains very high and the VIX reached a new record high.   

Nobody can tell if a deep Global recession is priced in,  but considering we are off 45% in global equities since October,  it may suggest it is priced in.    We discussed last week the signs that policy actions are working on funding markets,  we won’t consider going long seriously overnight till we see impact of all that has been done.    The only cushion is the price of crude,  besides the newest policy initiatives that relieve total gloom.    These are pretty powerful forces to cushion the economic fall and boost spending, but is it enough to fight all the strong negatives out there.   Unfortunately,  as traders we’d like crude to spike here and there,  so the vast commodity names get some life.   Downside risk from a further decline in oil and gas prices is much less at Oil levels here, so most commodity plays have potential for upside from their current price levels.

The only stock making NCH's these days is EBS (alerted Oct 1st),  it also made #1 IBD this weekend,  this pretty well sums up the market and the difficulty in finding anything to go long for a period of time.

A big scope of corporate earnings this upcoming week (see earnings link), investor reaction is what we will monitoring closely to give the market some direction, besides the commodity plays

...last hour shenanigans...again

Just when you think the intraday volatility is easing, it comes back with vengeance and slaps the trader/ investor in the face.   You had reason to think the market is showing signs of resilience as it battled back easily from being down 250+ points as traders seemed to be buying the dips.   What followed was disappointing as what we’ve become familiar with late in the day and that is the seemingly never-ending ‘forced selling’ took over.   Yesterday, we reminded that October is going to be the worst month of redemptions, simply by the 22nd of October it’s still ongoing.   On the positive side, the LIBOR rate is showing signs of erosion and earnings are generally well received.   On the negative side, the market likes to turn it’s head everyday and concentrate on something else.  Today's `last hour fall `seemed to coincide to the minute with the news of pension funds being halted from trading in `Argentina'.   If this was the case for the decline,  it’s stupid and we may have a chance to rebound if this is discussed at all.  We doubt it will be and the market will just turn its head and seek out gloom elsewhere.   In reality, we need back filling as noted yesterday, the market just finished one it’s best weeks and needs to do what it needs to do.   Unfortunately, every drop is magnified and many start saying here we go again!.  It’s not realistic,  but confidence has been shaken and as expected is the market continues showing signs it's all shook up on an hourly basis.

If we think AAPL`s call is going to pop the markets,  we are likely to be disappointed in the morning.   The company showed impressive growth in Iphones, but reined in near term expectations given macro uncertainty. The stock price has expected and indicated such.   Nothing really is a surprise, there is nothing damaging or a great surprise,  so besides possible short covering in the stock after- hours,  it gives little reason for the broad market to rally off.

..Snap Crackle and Pop..

Nope... that's not your bowl of cereal that is going Snap, Crackle and Pop!. This is no fairy tale song of health, merry chorus...It's your U.S markets!....

...Just when you think you've seen it all lately

Well,  this pre-mkt morning is a rare lock down happening on the U.S markets. ...  "Forced selling",  redemptions,  yesterdays break in SPX,  runaway $USD all in part has led to these inevitable developments.   Add to the mix,  overseas data showed the U.K economy shrank strongly.  It was the first decline in output since 1992 and the biggest single drop in any quarter since 1990.

Fear has settled in this morning and the circuit breakers are in to let everyone breath it all in.  Considering the freeze we just discussed yesterday in trade around the world,  it's only natural it's payback time as they freeze the markets!.

We're going to hear all this 'capitulation' speak in the morning, buy the open noise for a 'pop'.  To each his own.   Didn't we just have one of these?.  Sooner than later,  it will be snap, crackle and no Pop. 

As far as we're concerned,  until we get back to days of 3% intraday low- high ranges instead of the 6+% we've been witnessing,  we won't see a bottom form off any institutional, fundamental investors.    

3+1 HALLOWEEN offer from DJIMSTOCKS.com

Last time we did this offer mid-March, we got a nice rally to summer!.  Let's try again, yes, we're becoming superstitious...(Hey, what's left?),  before what could be a tumultuous Halloween week. 

In the spirit of putting the Bear into hibernation for the winter,  we are giving away an extra month on our 3 month/$145 subscription until November 1st.

This offer is also available to current DJIM members on 1 month recurring and 3 month subscriptions.  The 4 month special to will be automatically added to the end of your current subscription date.

To participate, visit the 'Subscribe' link at www.DJIMSTOCKS.com and proceed to the temporary 4 months for $145 payment box.

**offer available only till November 1st/ 2008.

..a new dynamic?

We can moan after back- to -back late day bouts of selling, we groan as well with the U.S markets flirting with October 10th lows at the close,  but what's the point anymore!.  If you're looking to buy or invest in this market, you're just looking for stability right now,  any stability to show a bottom before putting money to work.  You're through with moaning and groaning,  you're exhausted now.    Instead, you try to look for a silver lining here and there or maybe just an edge.  Recently, we've noted, the U.S markets are lagging the crashes in percentage terms seen all over the world markets and may need to get a dose of their own medicine.  In a Friday forum note , we said it wouldn't be a surprise if the outperforming U.S markets catch up to the action in Europe that day.   It did very late and yesterday it did as well.  This brings us to a new dynamic we may have get used and might not be a bad thing.  Personally, recall the days in the tech bubble coming into the offices BMO Nesbitt Burns, checking the Bloomberg machine and being dependent that day to overnight action overseas, particularly in Asia.   Whatever happened overnight,  we'd be following up on in the U.S markets for the most part.   It is very possible, we'll be entering this phase again with so much world turmoil underway that it's unlikely the U.S will lead a turn as another bubble completes it's burst in commodities.  We also have an incredible fascination with the Yen these days.

This morning the Asian markets, Europe are all up nicely and the U.S markets will follow and probably end the streak of back- to -back late day sell-offs.   Yes, that maybe premature to say, but sooner than later the bandwagon gets too crowded and we rally for more than part of a day.   Simply, the foreign markets are not following what happened here late Monday and finding their own reasons to rally.  The ducks may be lining perfectly, say we get a well behaved Yen, weaker USD, oil up and a technical reason such as flirting with Ocober 10th lows coming together all in one. 

If/ when we get the prospects for a multi- day move, we'd look to trade the ETF's relevant to the market indices instead of trying to pick out individual stocks, most likely.  Example,  it is probably much safer to go with say a SPY to trade the SPX than individual stocks...DIA, IWM etc.   For those with more risk in their blood risk there is the SDS 2X to short or long the SSO Ultra on the SPX.    As we always say look to high beta stocks in any rally,  but even now just to get your hands dirty and get your trading confidence back it may be easier to go with the very liquid ETF's. 

Anyways,  let's hope for that tumultuos Halloween week... as in a melt -up.  It won't hurt to get your fighting gloves on in anticipation of such a possibility.   Just always be on your toes for a sneaky jab...

..elastic market

We're keeping it short for today as nothing has really changed,  the market is showing it wants to go higher. It looked that way when we did an alert around 3:15, a pop followed almost immediately before a rip to the downside because of a 3:47 misunderstood GE headline that we noted as such (after- hours). You want to see itchy fingers, just look at the 2 stocks (EBS eps next week,  CMP) noted yesterday during this time frame. Nuts!. CMP report attached on site.

The futures have followed overnight as a noted possibility and the market is getting all the losses back. A lot of the focus is on the GDP, if you read the global economic report we put up on the weekend, you know what is going on and the expectations for GDP going forward.  If you look at the market levels, you have to think this has been getting priced during this mudslide.  We'll know soon enough.

We're getting those 'ducks' lining up the last few days, a softening YEN, a declining USD$ and a higher Oil and of course, the commodity stocks are moving upwards.

As long as the SPX stays above 925, we're in a pretty good position.

DJIM #44 2008

Sometimes a little hope and a little superstition goes a long way it seems!.  Hopefully, many of us put on our fighting gloves and participated in the tumultuous Halloween week that we noted as a possibility before Tuesdays morning.  By weeks end,  the SPX gained 100 pts from the possible push rally we were alerting Tuesday, now comes the harder part in predicting where it may or may not go.   Was this just a pre election rally,  or do we continue for a post election run?.   There's going to be many scenarios played out in the media,  but we're staying away from making predictions today,  we'll just go with the flow as at this point we're facing a resistance area, a fight at 970 and the upside is not going to be another quick 10%.   We are looking at SPY 110/ SPX 1100,  if all stays on course as next area of importance.

What was spooky last week was as if we're in a muzzled quiet period as  'NO'  bad news hit the street prior to election day.   It's as if all the dislocations in the financial markets just went away.   Poof!..all gone!.  yeah, right..everything has worked so fast.   Anyways, that's our conspiracy theory for the day.lol....but, truthfully... honestly,  it's not too far- fetched, so we're thinking we'll get some bad news late in the week or next week.

If we are going to get side-lined money into the market,  we need to see stability and tighter low-hi trading will bring confidence back slowly.  This was probably the best aspect to the last 3 trading days and we hope it sticks.

A few things,  we'd concentrate on this week is earning reports based on last weeks performance.  Simply,  we expect a better reaction to good reports in this better environment,  we are using CMP, EMS as a basis for this.    Otherwise,  we'd stick to the ETF  trades we highlighted last week, below is a comparison a member sent us that shows the potential prices of the SSO, SDS  trades (long or short) with the SPX moving in either direction.   Remember, these are 2x!.

 

 **A few members had asked to keep the Halloween special to add-on to current subscriptions past the weekend,  we'll keep it on for members till election night.

..what now?

Congratulations, and our prayers are with you!.  Unfortunately, once the opening bell goes off,  reality will likely start to sink in and savoring the historic chapter written last night will not be an option for traders.  Investors won't be running checks to their brokerages and money managers won't be buying every Solar stock relating to a political platform note.  Isn`t more a question of what`s next in store for Healthcare and therefore Healthcare stocks than Solar under the Obama hand.    Things changed overnight,  but nothing has changed in the gloomy economic picture for the global markets.   Traders are a skeptical bunch,  including DJIM who exited the market to dryer pastures by noon.   Simply, we think the rally of the past 5 trading days left little immediate upside on the table in our view. 

The best ticket is to wait it and/ or weigh your trading prospects to the downside now.  The odds are bigger returns would be downside bets.     This prospect was only enhanced after viewing some lists more closely after the close and seeing some bloated and undeserved point gains that may be crying for a short.   This includes the high betas, MA, BIDU, GOOG ( also, we weren`t overly joyous with the AAPL, RIMM performance). The list also includes anything oil related stocks, including the E&P gas stocks because Oil is not going up 10% a day going forward.   The ETF`s here are OIH, TAN.

Basically, we all should have taken a victory lap with the recent market calls and individual stock picks here, so just take it easy now.   Sometimes you get caught up in the emotions of a rally and think you can do no wrong with your trades,  the best medicine for us is to go back and read recent Journals to keep it all in stride and not stray from the big picture, big cloud still over the market.

..Life support

One thing we addressed recently is the probability of U.S markets following the developments, market action abroad.   If you had this in the back of your mind,  you'd see the indicies here had a good chance of another -5% day as that's where the $TOP (U.K) headed after the huge and a very unexpected 1.5% cut.  The market there declined gradually all day after the rate announcement and after it's close the idea of a selling wave extending here was a high probability.

The drop on top of Wednesday's drop put the market on life support at SPX 900 after easily breaking the 930 area of interest.  It's a good thing we've been positioned away from what became a -100 SPX in 2 days and another good thing is how fast it occurred.   That's right,  if we're going to go higher anytime soon and break over 1000 SPX,  this is the way to do it.    Back up the train and load up the cargo and head North!.   If the market shakes off the job report and retail numbers,  it will be a very good sign.   We're not suggesting grabbing the first train,  we' re going to monitor till close and if the action is good, we'd probably buy (SPY/SSO/SSD short) to hold over the weekend in anticipation of something greater come Monday.   On the other hand, if we crack 900 hard,  we're going into coma with the market.    We'll give an alert today,  if our general tone changes from Tuesday. 

If you did this trade , you're probably covered and already gone for the weekend....lol...enjoy, just bring us back a gift!.."...your trading prospects to the downside now.  The odds are bigger returns would be downside bets.     This prospect was only enhanced after viewing some lists more closely after the close and seeing some bloated and undeserved point gains that may be crying for a short.   This includes the high betas, MA, BIDU, GOOG ( also, we weren`t overly joyous with the AAPL, RIMM performance), and any solar sector noted in alert, especially the FSLR, SPWRA.   The list also includes anything oil related stocks, including the E&P gas stocks because Oil is not going up 10% a day going forward.   The ETF`s here are OIH, TAN."

As far as individual stories,  we've pointed out the stocks of interest this week, when we say we'd buying on dips we are not talking about solars or anything else.  We're talking about names we are putting up here.   A good case was CMP  today as it smacked the 9EMA and rushed up 5 pts opposite of the weakening market.

..what's it got to do with me?

The U.S markets said, " what's it got to do with me " to the massive China stimulus package.  Simply, this was the message as the overnight gap was sliced and diced quite quickly.   US markets didn't care that the package will increase energy demand,  it didn't care about how it will bolster China's infrastructure programs ,  including massive high speed railway expansion that will boost economic growth and create significant employment that will require tons and tons of steel etc .   We have a headache from GM, GS, AIG, FNM  this morning was the message loud and clear!.   The differences in where the money is going between the two countries makes you catch your breath and be full of envy on this side!.  It was like a kid sulking in a corner in this market!

There was really nothing to takeaway from today's action before a partial market holiday on Tuesday.  The volume was low across the board and the same will be tomorrow.   When you have such casual trading, you have lots of things that can be manipulated,  including a possible test of SPX 900 coming soon.  We wouldn't put much credence in any move, simply be careful not to be sucked out of shares or sucked into a move unless it's purely an intraday day for you.   Simply, we don't expect any real moving parts ( news) to give direction early this week.